Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 282322 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 622 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARM-UP...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SETTLING BACK TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY DECEMBER. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN FOR THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH MID AND UPPER 20S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO DEVIATION BETWEEN PRODUCTS. IN SOME CASES NOT EVEN THAT. I HAVE ADDED RADIATIONAL AFFECTS TO THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS AND THERE ARE A FEW LOWER 20S SHOWING UP IN THESE AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD SAT MORNING...MOVING SLOWLY OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN RESPONSE...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ADD ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THAT ON SUN AND THIS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL ALSO BE RISING...MID AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT THE COAST SAT NIGHT AND MID AND UPPER 40S SUN NIGHT. SOME OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG OR STRATUS OVERNIGHT SAT AND SUN. INCREASING SW WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT ESPECIALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FOG. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF FOG. IN FACT...WILL CARRY CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD AFTERNOON. A VERY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL BE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE WILL HELP TO DRAG A SMALL PIECE OF ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SINCE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND STATES WE WILL LIKELY JUST SEE A RETURN OF SEASONABLY COOL AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER INTRODUCED BUT THERE SEEMS INADEQUATE FORCING FOR APPRECIABLE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. THE AIRMASS MODIFIES ON WEDNESDAY AND THERE IS THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF A RETURN OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...THE MAIN HIGH BEING SPREAD ACROSS THE GOMEX. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THUS LOOK A BIT MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND THEN UPPER 60S. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY BUT SEEMS TO BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE NATION`S CAPITAL. LOCALLY WE MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NO FOG THREAT OVERNIGHT SINCE DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S. LIGHT/VRBL WINDS EARLY SAT WILL BECOME SOUTH AOB 8 KT BY MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS STREAMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE SUN/MON. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL TUE/WED AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE CAROLINAS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SEAS STILL HOVERING AROUND SIX FEET AT 41013 THIS HOUR. MORE IMPORTANTLY WINDS ARE SHOWING THE EXPECTED DOWNWARD TREND WITH SUSTAINED VALUES NOW AT 15 KNOTS. I EXPECT SEAS TO DROP IN SHORT ORDER. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT...MAINTAINING A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. SEAS SHOULD DROP FROM THE CURRENT 2-4 WITH A FEW FIVE FOOTERS TO 1-3 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW SAT MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH DURING SAT AFTERNOON AND EVE AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SW WINDS WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND...THE COOL SHELF WATERS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT MIXING. WE DO NOT EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO EXCEED 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SPOTS NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 4 FT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A PERSISTENT SE SWELL. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT PAIRED WITH A VERY WEST-EAST ELONGATED AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR SOME FAIRLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE WINDS ON MONDAY WHILE SEAS RUN 2 TO 3 FT. FROPA COMES MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH IT A VEERING AND INCREASING WIND. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE MORE STRONGLY ON TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SETS UP. SEAS COULD BRIEFLY FLARE TO ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT ESP ALONG NORTHERN ZONES OUTER EDGE. THIS WEDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AT WHICH TIME WIND AND SEAS WILL BOTH ABATE AND NO HEADLINES/FLAGS EXPECTED. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...BJR

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