Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 101718 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1218 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR SHOULD ARRIVE SATURDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A WARMUP WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TROUGH WILL FILL SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE ONLY CONCERN IS OVERNIGHT LOWS AND CITING THE PREVIOUS DEVELOPMENTS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ABATE FOR THE MOST PART LEADING TO LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RULE THE SHORT TERM AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...A PIECE OF VORT ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE SOME PRECIP BENEATH IT. THE ANTECEDENT COLUMN IS QUITE DRY...PWATS AROUND 0.25 INCHES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO AS THE IMPULSE MOVES OVERHEAD PRECIP WILL BE TOUGH TO DEVELOP. SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST SATURATION BOTH ABOVE 600MB AND BELOW 800MB...BUT THE DENDRITIC ZONE REMAINS VERY DRY. THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE SNOWFLAKES WILL EVAPORATE INTO THE DENDRITIC ZONE ALOFT...LEAVING JUST A FEW COLD SPRINKLES/SHOWERS LOCALLY. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES IF THE VORT BECOMES MORE POTENT AND CAN SATURATE THE ENTIRE COLUMN BEFORE TEMPS WARM NEAR THE SURFACE...BUT ATTM LOCAL TOPDOWN METHODOLOGY PRODUCES ALL LIQUID AND WILL CARRY JUST -RW WITH VERY LIGHT QPF. THE PRIMARY STORY THEN IS THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...FORECAST TO BE 10- 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BOTH STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 40S...MAYBE APPROACHING 50 IN THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT BE MUCH WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT...30-35...DUE TO CLOUDS AND WIND BEFORE COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY MODERATE NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED. ANOMALOUS TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A PIECE OF VORT ENERGY DRIVES A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. 850MB TEMP PLUMMET TO NEAR -15C...WARMER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE BUT STILL VERY COLD...AND AS THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGHS AND LOWS MAY BE CLOSE TO 30 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY LIKELY REMAINING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND A PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR THE TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE TO LIKELY BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY PTYPE ISSUES. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...CONTINUED COLD/ARCTIC AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD. LOOK FOR 270-300 WIND DIRECTIONS THRUOUT...WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AS LOW AS 4 KFT ARE POSSIBLE ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 15 TO 25 KT THURSDAY...AND 20 TO 30+ KT DURING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CHANCE OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS MVFR AT TIMES.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL BE 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER THE OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING AS CHANNELED VORTICITY MOVES BY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FROM 4-8 FEET THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A DECREASE LATE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS INTACT. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PLAGUE THE WATERS MOST OF THE SHORT TERM BEHIND A COLD FRONT JUST BEFORE THIS PERIOD...AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY BEHIND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. MOST OF THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY...WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL BE FROM THE NW AT 10-20 KTS. IN BETWEEN...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE A FLUCTUATION IN THE GRADIENT AND WINDS TO VEER TO THE NE AROUND 10 KTS...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE...BEFORE RETURNING TO THE NW QUICKLY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE DRIVEN...WITH SOME RESIDUAL 6 FT SEAS NECESSITATING THE SCA TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE FALLING TO JUST 1-2 FT BY FRIDAY AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS AND DECREASING SPEEDS DRIVE LOWER AMPLITUDES. RENEWED 2-4 FT SEAS WILL DEVELOP LATE AS THE WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS FOR THE WKND WILL INITIALLY BE NW AT 15-25 KTS...BEFORE SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NE ON SUNDAY WHILE REMAINING AT ELEVATED SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH THIS WIND DIRECTION FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT...THE STRONG VELOCITIES WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY BEFORE WAVE HEIGHTS DROP BACK TO 2-3 FT LATE IN THE WKND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL THE WATERS FOR PORTIONS OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...WILL ISSUE ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON THIS EVENING. ISSUED A MWS FOR LOWER WATER LEVELS FOR THE GRAND STRAND REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK

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