Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241832 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 232 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BECOME MORE EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CLOUDS ABATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH NEAR 40 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IF THE CLOUDS EXIT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER TEXAS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD TO FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DEEP DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY WARM THICKNESSES PROGGED ON THE MODELS WE SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. EXCEPT FOR ADDING A WEAK SEABREEZE (BACKED WIND DIRECTIONS) ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE EXCEEDINGLY MINOR.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY AS WILL LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. BOTH PROGRESS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST HEADING INTO TUESDAY WHILE DEEP OCCLUDED SYSTEM SLIDES EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK DIPPING IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL START TO SPREAD CYCLONIC MID LEVEL INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO GIVE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY COMING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS PASSAGE. THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM JUST FINE AND WILL REMAIN AS-IS. DESPITE THE WEAK MOISTURE THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS IMPLIED BY A HIGHER QPF NOW SEEN IN THE GFS. PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE IF THIS TREND HOLDS AND THERE IS A NEED FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO WITH MOST DAYS FEATURING MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. COOLER AIR SHOULD BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HALLOWEEN.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT AND DIRECTIONS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN...THUS VRB05KT IS INDICATED IN TAFS. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH PASSES. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE TERMINALS. THE AIRMASS APPEARS TOO DRY ATTM TO SUPPORT FOG OVERNIGHT DESPITE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AFTER SUNRISE LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY THE BAHAMAS MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM A WEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN NORTHERLY AGAIN TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH ONLY A SMALL 9-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL PLUS SMALL NORTHWESTERLY WIND WAVES AWAY FROM SHORE...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE GENERALLY MINOR. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY WITH CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL VEERING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED BY LATE IN THE DAY IF NOT BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SHOWS ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OFF THE COAST. AS THE WIND SPEED REMAINS CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SWELL ENERGY SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FT OR LESS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR

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