Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 030537 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 137 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND STALL AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS INTO THE WEEKEND. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: THE LATE EVENING UPDATE MAINLY INVOLVES FINE-TUNING POP VALUES ACROSS THE AREA...WHERE RE-DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS OVER THE DEEPER INTERIOR. STORM MOTION SHOULD FAVOR HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS OVER OUR FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. THE PREVIOUS EVENING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. A TRIMMING OF POP VALUES TONIGHT IS NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION WHILE MUCH OF NE SC AND SE NC ARE UNDERGOING A STABILIZING TREND IN THE LOW-LEVELS. A FEW RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES WARRANTS ISOLATED POP VALUES AT A MINIMUM BUT DIURNAL COOLING AND OUTFLOW COOLING CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT...LAND INITIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED...BUT OCEAN SHOWERS MAY INCREASE INTO CAPE FEAR AND THE COASTAL REGIONS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL WIND CONVERGENCE INCREASES OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. LOWS OVERNIGHT OF MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AT THE COAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN CUTOFF FROM THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW TO THE NORTH THROUGH THU. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST STATES WED AND THU AND THEN FINALLY OPEN UP...EVENTUALLY GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES LATE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATER WED AND WED NIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATE INSTABILITY LEVELS INTO THU. AT THE SAME TIME... SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL FOSTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVERS GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TRAIN...WHICH OVER TIME...COULD LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN SOME COMMUNITIES. THUS...IN ADDITION TO HIGH POPS...WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN RISK AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ON WED. THESE VALUES WILL BEGIN TO COME DOWN SLIGHTLY BY THU. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL... ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY WED AND WED NIGHT AND INTO THU AS WELL GIVEN THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR AT 500 MB WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. DEVELOPING INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS MAY LEAD TO STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MID LEVELS WILL BE DRIER THU AND THIS IS WHEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WILL ALSO BE MOST PRONOUNCED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK. REMAINS OF DISSIPATING FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE AREA THERE WILL BE LITTLE OF IT LEFT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN WITH LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WORKING TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY AT TIMES. LOCATING/TIMING THESE FEATURE AT LONG RANGES IS QUITE DIFFICULT AT BEST SO PLAN TO CONTINUE CARRYING HIGH CHC POP THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACTIVITY MAY NOT JUST BE DIURNAL IN NATURE GIVEN POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ENHANCEMENT. A SECOND FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT IT TOO IS LIKELY TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL TEND TO KEEP HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO BUT HOLD LOWS A BIT ABOVE CLIMO. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BRING AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH PATCHY AREAS OF FOGS AND LOW CIGS...POTENTIALLY CREATING MVFR/IFR. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS. THIS ALONG WITH PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS COULD CREATE PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR WITH VARYING LOW TO HIGH CLOUD HEIGHTS AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST MAY STILL MAKE ENOUGH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TO GET INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IF `PUSHED` A BIT BY RAIN COOLING. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY IN A VERY LIGHT PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME WITH A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. THE SEA BREEZE AND RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW MAY LEAD TO SHORT-LIVED DEVIATIONS FROM THIS TREND. SEAS MAINLY ESE WAVES 2 FT EVERY 8 SECONDS WITH A VERY LIGHT CHOP OR MOSTLY SMOOTH. ISOLATED TSTMS AND CLOUD TO SEA LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIMP INTO THE AREA FROM THE N AND NW BEFORE STALLING AND THEN WAVERING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME ILL-DEFINED FRI AND SAT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WED MORNING WILL SETTLE ON SE DURING THE DAY WED. SE TO S WINDS WED EVE WILL AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THU MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD... BUT UP TO 10 TO 15 KT LATER WED AND WED EVE. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THROUGHOUT. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT. DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO BE INFLUENCED BY SMALLER SCALE FEATURES AT TIMES...WITH CONVECTION AND SEA BREEZE BEING THE MOST LIKELY. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUN WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJD NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SGL MARINE...MJC/REK/RJD/III

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