Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 221425 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1025 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL WAVER BACK TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY... THE COLD FRONT IS BEST SEEN IN THE DEWPOINT FIELDS WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S JUST TO OUR NORTH AND MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE COAST. THE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY IS HOLDING STRONG AND A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED. THERE IS ALSO COLDER CLOUD TOPS SHOWING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. OVERALL POPS LOOK GOOD WITH LOW CHANCE VALUES THIS MORNING TRENDING DOWN LATER TODAY ONLY TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE FIRST FULL OF DAY OF FALL ON TUESDAY BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE...AS LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY RIDGES DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO JUST HOW FAR FROM THE COAST IT WILL GET BEFORE STALLING. THE UPPER ENERGY DRIVING THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME BROAD OVERHEAD...STALLING AS A GREAT LAKES AREA RIDGE BLOSSOMS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CREATES A DIFFICULT FORECAST BECAUSE...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY TUESDAY...THE BROAD LOW OVERHEAD WILL INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST...POSSIBLY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 600MB OF THE COLUMN WILL VEER TO THE E/NE...LIKELY DRIVING THE BOUNDARY /COASTAL TROUGH/ BACK TOWARDS SHORE. THIS CREATES INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST POP NEAR THE COAST. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE CWA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS A VERY SHARP GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN HEAVY RAIN AND JUST LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER...TUESDAY WILL HAVE NOTICEABLY MORE SUNSHINE THAN WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD 50S...WITH SOME LOW 50S POSSIBLE WEST OF I-95. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THANKS TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...VERY UNSETTLED THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS THE PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE FEEL...BUT IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. DIFFUSE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD THURSDAY WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH A COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL UNCERTAINTY EXISTING IN EXACTLY HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATE-WEEK...AS THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN EXTREMELY HIGH PWATS LURKING JUST OFFSHORE...AND MUCH MORE TYPICAL PWATS TOWARDS I-95. THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE COASTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY ADVECTING WESTWARD ON DEEP EASTERLY FLOW...PUSHING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE COAST. WPC GRAPHICS SHOW THIS GRADIENT WELL...WITH ABOUT 4 INCHES OF QPF CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST...BUT LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH IN THE WESTERN ZONES. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODELS...BUT IS FAVORED BY WPC...AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI PERIOD. WILL BUMP POP TO MDT CHC FOR LATE WEEK AND CONTINUE WITH HIGHS BELOW CLIMO BUT LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE SATURDAY AS RIDGING FINALLY DISPLACES THE UPPER TROUGH...BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SUGGESTS DRYING FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT THE MID-LEVELS...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL TAKE A DECIDEDLY DOWNWARD TURN DURING THE WKND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO SEASONABLE NORMS. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A COLD FRONT IS POISED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE IS MOSTLY MID CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH IT...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING FLO AND LBT WITH AT WORST INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS. LATER TODAY HEAVIER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE MYRTLES. THERE COULD BE SOME INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS THERE...WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER. WINDS POST FRONTAL WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A MID CLOUD CEILING LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM...BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH LIGHT SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS. ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION TO INCREASE WINDS ARRIVES TONIGHT WHEN A HEALTHIER 10-15 KNOT...LEANING TO THE HIGHER END...RANGE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL MAINTAIN A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET WITH THE HIGHER END SHOWING UP TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. THIS PRODUCES A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS...AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS...WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION...BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT FT TUESDAY...AND REMAIN THERE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A NE WIND WAVE THE DOMINANT GROUP. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT HOISTING THE HEADLINE WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE CERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. ONCE THE SCA IS ISSUED...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR QUITE SOME TIME. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM...AS A STAGNANT PATTERN KEEPS A COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND. THIS PRODUCES A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS DUE TO A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WILL BE COMMON LATE WEEK. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 4-6 FT PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE LONG TERM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL

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