Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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518 FXUS62 KILM 211843 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 243 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Mild weather will prevail through today before chillier air behind a cold front comes crashing into the eastern Carolinas Friday night. The weekend will be characterized by seasonably cool temperatures with lows in the 40s and highs remaining below 70 degrees Saturday and Sunday. A brief warm-up Monday will be followed by a reinforcing shot of dry and cool air Monday night. This will set the stage for dry and fair conditions in the upcoming week with temperatures near normal for the season. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM Friday... Fog has shown some impressive persistence along a narrow strip from eastern Bladen and Columbus into far western Brunswick Counties but has elsewhere burned off. Satellite imagery shows rapid erosion developing in the aforementioned areas, which will soon join others in full sunshine. Strong cold front just west of Charlotte and bearing down on the coastal plain. Any shower activity will be pretty limited but 12Z guidance is in fact showing isolated activity developing later this afternoon. Changes to the forecast were very minor, generally just showing a later timeframe. Even our diurnal curve looks OK, in its early afternoon max followed by falling temperatures as the strong CAA kicks in. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday...The new change in the upper longwave pattern affecting the the ILM CWA this period will be upper troffing affecting the Eastern U.S. basically from the Great Lakes eastward. And, upper ridging across the western 2/3rds of the U.S. The mean upper trof axis will lie just off the East Coast of the U.S. No embedded mid-level s/w trofs are expected to affect the ILM CWA this period. With this pattern, pcpn chances will be null and void. For Saturday, at the sfc, the FA will be under continued gusty NW winds that will slowly abate during the aftn and evening. With the center of high pressure progged to drop to the Gulf Coast States for Sunday, winds will not totally drop out but will subside from what transpired during the day on Saturday. Sky conditions thru the period will be clear any cloud that makes it across the Appalachians will scour out quickly under NW downslope trajectory flow. For now will use a blend of the available model data for max/min temps thruout this period. Not entirely bought on any 1 Mos guidance given the change in airmass. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday...A rebound in temps into the mid 70s for early in the week in light W-SW flow will be knocked back down once again as a dry cold front drops south through Mon aftn. This boundary is barely evident when looking at pcp water field as the values rise from around a half inch up to .75 inch right along it. Do not expect any pcp with this front. N-NW will follow as High pressure builds in behind it, but ridging in the upper atmosphere and bright October sunshine will offset the cooling to produce temps around 70 most places. High pressure will shift off the east coast on Thurs with a W-SW return flow allowing temps to warm once again. Overall dry weather with plenty of sunshine through the week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 18Z...Widely scattered showers and tstms expected as a cold front pushes off the coast later this afternoon. Included VCSH at all terminals as a result. VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the night into Saturday with decent drying through the column. Gusty northwest winds are expected with frontal passage for a few hours then and increase in gusty winds with mixing Saturday morning. Extended Outlook...Expect VFR Saturday night through Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM Friday...Quite a bit going on in the very near term...that is the early part of the period. Light west winds will veer to the SW ahead of strong cold front this afternoon and then back to NW this evening with a strong increase in wind speeds as the cold air pours in. No real changes to the overall forecast thinking or timing so the previous discussion has been left: As of 600 AM Friday...SCA has been raised for the SC waters starting by the mid afternoon and for the NC waters by early evening. The story for mariners will be initially the easterly swell affecting the local waters from the low now roughly located about 420 miles southeast of Cape Fear. Weak showers rotating around this low could reach the local waters from the east this morning before drying up. This low is progged to turn NE, hooking up or in this case getting absorbed with the strong cold front, well northeast of the local waters, in association with the progressive mid-level s/w trof. The main story for mariners will be the passage of the strong cold front late this afternoon or early evening followed by the tightened sfc pg which will last across the local waters thru tonight. With excellent CAA after the cfp, this will combine with the tightened sfc pg to produce strong SCA conditions with possible Gale force wind gusts especially off Cape Fear or Cape Romain. Significant seas will build late this afternoon and tonight due to building wind driven waves. The easterly swell from the exiting low will continue to affect the local waters tonight which may boost seas a little higher than what guidance is dictating. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday...Winds are expected to remain active thruout this fcst period. The highest NW winds are slated early Saturday due to the tightened sfc pg and continued or reinforcing CAA across the local waters. The center of the sfc hi drops to the Gulf Coast States Saturday night and remains in this position into Monday. The sfc pg does slightly relax in addition to neutral advection. Thus winds will peak Sat and lower to below SCA thresholds by sunset Saturday for all waters. Winds will slightly lower further on Sunday thru Sunday night backing to a more westerly direction around 15 kt. Significant seas will peak early Saturday then slowly drop off as the easterly swell from the exiting low decays. Wind driven waves will become the main and dominant producer of sig. seas thruout this fcst period. Should see a nice range of seas Saturday thru Saturday evening then become more uniform during Sunday into Sunday night. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday...Light W-SW winds early Monday will veer to the NW as a dry cold front moves across the waters Mon aftn. Another surge of cool air as high pressure builds down from the north behind front. Expect winds to kick up out of the N-NW from 15 to at least 20 KT Monday night shifting to the N-NE by Tues as high pressure migrates east as it extends down from Canada. WNA showing seas remaining below SCA thresholds running 2 to 3 ft ahead of front early Mon and then jacked back up to 4 to 5 ft Mon night into Tues in gusty northerly winds. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 615 AM Friday...Looks like between the hours of noon and 5 pm for the next chance for the Lower Cape Fear River to spill out of it`s banks. At this point, it could breach the Moderate flooding thresholds of 6.7 ft MLLW as forecast and observed at the downtown Wilmington gage. Expect the next advisory or warning to be issued within the next 3 to 4 hours. the following are high tides for the gage on the Lower Cape Fear River of downtown Wilmington thru Sunday... High tide 2:57 PM on Fri. High tide 3:23 AM on Sat. High tide 3:56 PM on Sat. High tide 4:22 AM on Sun. High tide 4:53 PM on Sun. && .EQUIPMENT... As of 240 PM Friday...Power at the ASOS at the Lumberton, NC airport (KLBT) has been restored. Observations will resume while climate data from Lumberton will remain missing until Saturday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SRP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.