Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281953 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 253 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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The area will grow increasingly mild ahead of a strong cold front that arrives late Wednesday night. Seasonably cool temperatures will follow late week, with temperatures possibly falling below freezing Saturday morning. A warming trend is expected Sunday through early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /tonight through Wednesday/...
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As of 3 PM Tuesday...Well above normal temperatures continue this afternoon as a warm front lifts north of the area. Temperatures are now in the mid 70s most places with 60s at the beaches and a few upper 70s in isolated locations. An extensive CU field has developed as low level moisture advection combines with modest instability. An impressive early-season resultant sea breeze circulation has set up that has cleared the coast of cloud cover. Although most places will stay dry for the remainder of the Near Term, isolated sea breeze- related convection is a possibility this afternoon. Above normal temperatures will continue overnight as a strong pre- frontal warm advective regime remains in place. Model consensus gives us lows in the lower to mid 60s. Given the moist southerly prevailing winds over the relatively cool shelf waters overnight consider sea fog formation to be a possibility and that it will impact many locations along the immediate coast in the early morning hours of Wednesday. Model soundings also suggest a stratus deck will form many locations overnight. Increasingly strong warm advection in advance of the next cold front will lead to impressively warm temperatures on Wednesday, with lower to mid 80s most places and 70s at the beaches. A spot shower is possible during the day, but the more substantial precip event will hold off til FROPA on Wednesday night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Tuesday...A cold front with fairly strong wind fields will be entering the area Wednesday night. SPC has outlined a Marginal Risk area-wide. Given that WRF/GFS show roughly 300-600 J/Kg of MLCAPE especially over western zones this seems plausible. Wind damage will be the main severe weather form with a shallow EML above the surface inversion and some mid level dry air lingering into at least the first part of the overnight. Similarly 850mb winds may ramp up to 50kt. This boundary and its associated moisture push offshore very quickly Thursday morning allowing for some pretty robust cold advection, possibly even leading to a non-diurnal temperature curve. This cold advection shuts off Thursday night but not before cooling the airmass sufficiently to bring seasonably cool low temperatures.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 325 AM Tuesday...Main theme this period is seasonably cold, and below normal temperatures on Saturday, where sub freezing readings may prevail at daybreak Saturday as strong high pressure migrates across the region. The cold early Saturday could damage early blooms or flowering crops. The high will slip off the SE coast Sunday allowing the start of a warming trend. Late Monday a cold front will approach from the west, but with the parent low over the Great Lakes, the front may not be very powerful here locally. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 18Z...Precip chances will remain below mentionable levels through the TAF valid period although a stray shower cannot be ruled out. VFR through the daylight hours all terminals, with good confidence IFR conditions developing overnight throughout the area. All terminals will likely see cigs less than 1000 ft as stratus develops in the early morning hours. Lower confidence in sea fog development overnight for the Grand Strand region. Extended Outlook...Risk for reduced ceilings and visibility in showers and thunderstorms, mainly Wed night into Thu morning otherwise VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /tonight through Wednesday/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...S winds of 10 to 15 kts this afternoon and tonight will increase on Wednesday in advance of a strong cold front. Winds on Wednesday will increase to around 20 kts, with seas building to 3 to 5 ft by late afternoon. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday... Prefrontal SW flow regime may strengthen to the point where Small Craft Advisory is needed even if seas fall a little short. A few Advisory-worthy 6 ft seas may join the advisory- worthy winds Wednesday night however as the boundary nears. A sharp veer to NW will occur Thursday during the pre-dawn hours, likely steepening wave faces. Even though seas may be rather choppy then Thursday the overall dominant wave height will diminish along with the winds and all flags will advisory flags will drop. Both will continue to abate Thursday night as high pressure builds in behind the boundary. LONG TERM /FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/... As of 325 AM Tuesday...Clipper like system will bring an increase in N winds Friday but improvement is expected into Saturday as high pressure moves almost overhead, but chilly. Seas Friday 3-5 feet will ease to 2-4 feet into Saturday. An under-lying ESE swell of 1-2 feet will prevail this period.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...REK

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