Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KILM 171045
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
546 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017
A warming trend will occur today into Wednesday ahead of a cold
front which will drop south through the Carolinas late
Wednesday. Cooler and drier high pressure will follow on
Thursday. Low pressure moving up from the Gulf coast will drag a
warm front through the area on Friday. High pressure will build
in on Saturday before another system brings unsettled weather
for Sunday into Monday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 500 AM Tuesday...A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for
portions of the I-95 corridor for visibility near 1/4 mile. The
fog and stratus is widespread and will hang around through the
morning. Visibility is expected to slowly improve between 9a and
10 am and so the advisory is currently in effect til 10 am.
Widespread low clouds and some thick fog blanket the forecast
area again this morning as a pronounced surface inversion hangs
on. This inversion is expected to persist through the morning,
but should erode as a warm front moves through, by or during the
afternoon. Once the inversion does break, considerable dry air
above 2 kft will be able to mix down and we should finally be
able to see some sunshine this afternoon. We are counting on
this sunshine to get temps up to forecast values of upper 60s N
to lower 70s S. A seabreeze along the more immediate coastal
areas will keep highs from eclipsing the mid and upper 60s.
Increasing SW winds above the boundary layer will prevent decoupling
tonight and lows should be in the upper 50s throughout. This as a
cold front approaches from the NW. The column does begin to moisten
across the northern most zones toward morning and given increasing
frontal lift, can not rule out a shower and will include a slight
chance in these areas toward morning.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...The flow remains largely westerly and
marginal moistening of the column is brief with dry air in the mid
levels formidable Wed. The cold front is expected to become oriented
E-W and should move to our S during the afternoon and early eve
hours of Wed. Isolated to scattered showers should not produce more
than a few hundreths of qpf where measurable rainfall does occur. We
are still expecting the warmest day of the week Wed, lower to mid
70s. The Brunswick County coast and southern New Hanover County will
be short changed due to the prevailing flow being onshore, thus
mainly shy of 70 here.
A brief surge of colder and drier air Wed night with skies clearing
as high pressure builds into the area. Low temps will drop into the
mid and upper 40s with some lower 50s along portions of the
immediate coast and the South Santee River area.
This high will quickly move overhead Thu and then offshore Thu
night. Clouds will begin to increase during Thu afternoon, but it
will remain dry with above normal temps. Eyes will then turn to a
storm system, which by this time, will be moving across the Ohio
Valley with its complex frontal system trailing south across the
Tennessee Valley and south to the eastern Gulf Coast. Moisture
advection into the Carolinas will be in full swing toward the tail
end of the period as Conveyor belt of deep moisture transports Gulf
of Mexico moisture north as 50 kt low level jet begins to impinge on
the area. Will show pops ramping up overnight Thu.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...Continues to look unsettled through much
of the long term period as first system brings some pcp to the
area on Fri in a warmer and moister southerly flow. Once this
system lifts out of the area, should see a break Fri night into
Sat with some drier air and sunshine on Saturday before next
system spreads clouds and pcp our way once again Sat night into
Sunday. This system may keep clouds and chc of pcp over the
Carolinas through Monday. Clouds and pcp will keep less of a
diurnal swing with highs reaching into the 60s most days.
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 12Z...Another round of IFR/LIFR conditions this morning will
hang in there until around 15Z. Light winds this morning will give
way to southwest flow as warm air advection begins. VFR conditions
are expected this afternoon. A cold front will approach LBT
overnight with a few showers present.
Extended Outlook...A cold front Wednesday afternoon may
be accompanied by showers. Showers Friday may bring a period of
MVFR. Otherwise expect VFR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...A warm front will move across the waters
today. Light NE or ENE winds will become SW today and then increase
to 15 to 20 kt tonight ahead of a cold front. Seas will respond to
the increasing wind energy, building from 2 ft or less to 3 to 4 ft
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...A cold front to the NW will become oriented E-
W as it moves across the waters during the afternoon and should be
south of all the waters by/during the early eve hours of Wed. SW to
W winds Wed will shift to N in the wake of the front. Wind speeds up
to 15 to 20 kt are expected prior to the front and then for several
hours after the passage of the front. Seas will be mainly 3 to 4 ft
Wed and Wed night, although some 5 ft seas across the outermost
northern waters will be possible. NE winds near 10 kt Thu will veer
as high pressure moves overhead and offshore. Toward the tail end of
the period, expect SE and S winds to be on the increase ahead of the
next storm system. Seas for Thu and Thu night will be 2 ft or
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...Light and variable winds early Friday
will become on shore and eventually southerly as low pressure
lifting up through the Mississippi Valley pulls a warm front
through the Carolinas. This southerly push will bring seas up to
3 to 4 ft most waters late Friday into early Saturday. A weak
northerly flow will develop Sat allowing seas to subside down to
3 ft or less through early Sunday.
SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for SCZ017-023-