Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KILM 260202
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1002 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
High pressure will bring warm temperatures for Thursday. Rain
chances will increase slowly on Friday as low pressure tries to
consolidate near the Bahamas. This feature could bring an
unsettled holiday weekend as it drifts slowly northwestward. Rain
chances will gradually decrease later next week depending on the
speed at which this system exits.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM Wednesday...High pressure offshore will ridge
across the waters overnight. Low level convergence has resulted in
some clouds developing south of Cape Fear. As the ridge reasserts
itself overnight...expect much of these clouds will be suppressed
Convective cloud debris will filter across the forecast area
overnight and so skies are not expected to remain totally clear
for the entire night. Winds will be light with weak steering flow
aloft. Recovering dewpoints should keep lows from dropping below
the lower to mid 60s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM Wednesday...The western limb of a broad high pressure
system over the western Atlantic will extend over the eastern
Carolinas through much of the short term, keeping in fair skies, dry
weather and warm temperatures through at least Friday afternoon.
This is when forecast uncertainty increases. Guidance continues to
suggest that a yet-to-form tropical or sub-tropical system may move
towards the south-Atlantic coast on Friday night. This may bring
increasing chances for showers or thunderstorms, especially along
the coast, in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. It is unlikely that
winds associated with this system will be a concern Friday night as
guidance still shows a weakly organized and relatively distant
system at that time.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Rain chances on the increase on Saturday
though how much depends on what shape the Bahamas system takes. A
more open trough up and down the coast would favor some coastal
rain whereas a more consolidated low near Florida may not.
Interesting the the WRF shows the latter but also an area of rain
up the coast. With the added cloud cover Saturday will end up
seeing a high in the low 80s, generally cooler than those leading
up to it. Will show a further increase in rain chances by Sunday
as though the system will be very slowly meandering its overall
drift should be north and westward. Forecast uncertainty only
grows from there as some models show that the system could have a
weak reflection (and thus its associated moisture) around through
Tuesday. Assuming this comes to pass the ever present clouds will
keep highs close to climo (despite the upper ridging otherwise
favoring much warmer) while nighttime lows remain a solid category
above normal. At some point towards the end of the period we
should transition back to increasing sun and daytime warmth in
addition to waning POPs.
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 00Z...With high pressure in place, high confidence continues
for VFR through the valid TAF period. Nearly clear skies this
evening will continue into Thursday, with a few mid to high clouds
possible in the early morning hours. Southerly winds around 12 kt
or less this evening will become light and variable overnight. On
Thursday, VFR continues with southwesterly winds early becoming
southerly in the afternoon, increasing to around 10 kt.
Extended Outlook...MVFR possible in scattered to numerous showers,
isolated thunderstorms this weekend and Mon. Otherwise expect VFR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM Wednesday...Offshore high pressure will ridge
across the waters overnight. SW winds will be near 10 kt. Seas
will be 2 ft or less.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM Wednesday...The western limb of a broad high
pressure system over the western Atlantic will extend over the
waters through much of the short term, keeping winds light and
seas of only around 2 or 3 ft through at least Friday afternoon.
However...guidance continues to suggest that a yet-to-form
tropical or sub-tropical system may move towards the south-
Atlantic coast on Friday night. This may bring increasing chances
for showers or thunderstorms, along with gradually increasing
winds and seas, into the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. However, it
is unlikely that winds associated with this system will even be
strong enough to warrant any advisories or warnings for the short
term as guidance still shows a weakly organized and relatively
distant system at that time. For now expecting NE winds of 10 to
15 kt Friday night, with seas building to 3 to 4 ft.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Some of the forecast parameters that we
have some confidence in are that winds will be onshore and seas
will tend to build through the period. Points of uncertainty are
more related to the degree of wave building, which is related to
the yet uncertain strength of the system. The size of the system
will also modify the compass point of the onshore flow, which
could wind up from NE to E or SE. Overall though the chance for an
advisory appears slightly diminished.