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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
053
FXUS62 KILM 261850
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
250 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Hazardous beach conditions will continue through this evening as
hurricane Maria moves slowly north offshore of the Carolinas.
Maria will accelerate away from the United States beginning
Thursday. A cold frontal passage late Thursday will bring
cooler and drier air into the Carolinas Friday and into this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...The area continues to feel the outermost
fringes of Maria with a decent albeit thinning stratocumulus
layer. Some gusty winds near 20 mph and in some isolated cases
higher remain as well. As the storm weakens and continues to
drift to the north, northeast these elements will diminish as
well. I have skies becoming partly cloudy near the coast with
mostly clear skies inland. High pressure will build in at both
the surface and mid levels Wednesday. Guidance and the official
temperature forecast still calls for highs within a couple of
degrees either side of 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Low amplitude mid level ridging will be
developing through the period between a cutoff over the Great
Basin and hurricane Maria off the coast. Combined these factors
will yield a light northerly flow through most of the column for
most of the period. This will keep the area rain-free and with
fairly mild temperatures. Thursday night will see Maria
rocketing off to the east. This clears the way for a fairly
strong cold front to push through the area. The cooling will be
quite tempered but a noticeable drop in humidity is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Post-FROPA high pressure building in from
the NW will lead to seasonal, early fall-like temperatures with
generally dry conditions through the long term. It is possible
that isolated showers could affect mainly the coastal regions
during this period due to a combination of weak near- shore
convergence and the occasional upper level short wave. However,
limited moisture and a generally stable column would preclude
significant or widespread QPF totals.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 18Z...Expect some residual MVFR ceilings this afternoon as
a more diffuse stratus layer continues to hover across the area.
Once again the coastal terminals have more cloud cover. The
moisture will continue to diminish this evening and overnight
and no IFR ceilings are expected. Mixing of the boundary layer
will once again preclude fog formation.

Extended Outlook...MVFR ceilings may linger/redevelop at the
coastal terminals Wed night, mainly KILM. Wind gusts at KILM
may gust to 15 to 20 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Small craft advisory remains in effect
through the period with periphery impacts from Maria. The end is
finally in sight however as the north to northeast winds of
20-25 knots should taper off to 10-15 knots by late Wednesday
but not before another surge late tonight into early Wednesday.
Seas will remain elevated with 5-10 feet through about midday
Wednesday then tapering off after that.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Offshore flow will grow lighter Wednesday
night as the offshore circulation of Maria moves away from the
region. A westerly direction should become slightly more favored
than northwest as well, and NE swell energy will be abating. No
flags or headlines are expected during the period.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...The long term trend will be of gradually
increasing winds and building seas as high pressure moves in
from the NW. NE winds through the period will increase to 15 to
20 kts by Saturday evening, with seas building to 4 to 6 ft by
Sunday. In this case, is likely that a Small Craft Advisory will
need to be issued for the latter portion of the long term.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...REK/MBB/SHK