Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 290501 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 101 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WARMTH AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT MAY STALL NEAR THE COAST NEXT WEEK INCREASING OUR LOCAL RAIN CHANCES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY...RAISED FORECAST LOWS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA AND THE IMMEDIATE SC COASTLINE/BEACHES. LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE BACK ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS... A CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE NC/VA BORDER BUT LACKED SENSIBLE WEATHER AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. WEAK LOW-LEVEL NOCTURNAL JETTING LOCALLY ON THIS SIDE OF THE FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO STAVE OFF PESKY FOG AND MIST OBSCURATIONS INTO THE MORNING COMMUTES. OVERALL NO NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. THE PREVIOUS EVENING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. PICTURES FROM SPACE SHOW AN UNRESTRICTED SKY OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS ON THIS QUIET AND NEARLY CHARACTERISTIC LATE AUGUST EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS ON-BOARD THE ORBITERS SHOW A DRY REGION FROM ATLANTA TO COLUMBIA TO GEORGETOWN SC...AND AN ENHANCED ZONE OF HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST OVER NC ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN VIRGINIA PROGGED TO DIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC BEFORE LIFTING NORTH FRIDAY. LIGHT S AND SW WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY HOLDS N OF THE AREA. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP BUT FOG/MIST ENTRENCHMENT SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY OR ISOLATED...AND SHALLOW SINCE SW-WSW WINDS OF 15 KT WILL LIKELY PREVAIL A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET OFF THE GROUND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NO PLANS TO INCLUDE FOG MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE VERY LAST VESTIGES OF AN ABNORMALLY COOL AIR MASS WILL VANISH AFTER TONIGHT...WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RUNNING A DEGREE OR 2 BELOW NORMAL FOR ONE MORE NIGHT. ESSENTIALLY MIDDLE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE OCEAN AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS PERIOD. MODELS SIMILAR WITH INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS TO THE MID 590S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP AND TEMPORARILY STALL ACROSS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY...THEN MORE OR LESS DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND. MODELS THEN HAVE A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTEND SW FROM A 1025+ HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NE STATES. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...RESULTING WITH AND KEEPING AN ONSHORE FLOW ESE-SSW IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE FA DURING THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP/AID IN KEEPING THE DAILY HIGHS/MAXES FROM PUSHING TOO FAR INTO THE 90S. WITH SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER RIDGING...AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA...POPS WILL NEARLY BE NON-EXISTENT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE WHERE JUST A 20 POP OR LESS WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY STARTING ON SATURDAY. FOR FRI/SAT MAXES...HAVE TWEAKED LOWER BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...MAINLY DUE TO PROGGED ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS FOR MINS...VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND SEE NO REASON TO DETOUR FROM THEIR NUMBERS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND...TO THE LOW TO MID 70S AS YOU WORK YOUR WAY EASTWARD TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AND FLATTEN...EXPANDING WEST AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL LEAVE A RELATIVELY FLAT/PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SUN AND MON DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUMP PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL EXCEED 2 INCHES MON AND HANGING AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DRY MID LEVELS AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE MAY LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION ON SUN BUT STARTING MON COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE WITH SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMING MAIN FEATURES. LATE IN THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT TIMING REMAINS A QUESTION. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES PLANNED TO INHERITED GRIDS/FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...THE RETURN OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE A GRADUAL TREND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS. THIS WITH ANY ISOLATED AREAS OF AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY AT INLAND AIRPORTS AND PERHAPS KCRE HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INCREASED WINDS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...POSSIBLY PRECLUDING ANY FOG. AFTER DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON 5-10 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS SAT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY...BASED ON BUOY OBS I HAVE ADDED 1 FOOT TO SEA HEIGHT FORECASTS OVERNIGHT. JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORECAST WIND SPEEDS NEEDED FOR THE NC COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS... CRISTOBAL CONTRIBUTION ABOUT WANED...AND THIS WILL SLOWLY MERGE INTO THE BACKGROUND ESE-SE LONGER PERIOD SWELL OF BUILDING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE UPCOMING. EVEN SO...SEAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER PENDER/NEW HANOVER ZONES WHERE THE FAINT BUT RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY PERSISTS. FARTHER SOUTH THERE IS WAVE HEIGHT SHADOWING...MOST PRONOUNCED OFF OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY. SOUTHERNMOST ZONES TO FALL TO JUST 2 FT. WIND- WISE...SSW TENDING TO WSW 10 KNOTS EVERYWHERE INTO VERY EARLY FRIDAY. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SFC BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE HATTERAS DURING FRIDAY...WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND. SFC RIDGING FROM THE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NE STATES WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE FEATURE TO AFFECT THE AREA WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD. THE POSITIONING OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE FLOW...ESE THRU S...ACROSS THE AREA WATERS DURING THIS 2 DAY PERIOD. THE SFC PG WILL BE IN A RELAXED MODE...RESULTING WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT...WITH 10-15 KT DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE DAILY AFTN/EVENG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION EACH DAY OF THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT EACH DAY VIA WAVEWATCH3 AND SWAN MODELS...WITH A FEW 4 FOOTERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FROM ANY ROGUE GROUND SWELL LEFTOVER FROM CRISTOBAL. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...ELONGATED BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 KT AT NIGHT TO A SOLID 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE TROUGH IS AT ITS STRONGEST. PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS FROM AROUND 2 AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO A SOLID 3 FT TUE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SGL/TRA

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