Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KILM 232010
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
310 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017
An upper low over the area will move northeast to off the
Delmarva Coast early Tuesday, and off Cape Cod by Tuesday
evening. High pressure from the south will ridge across the area
Tuesday through Wednesday with temperatures rebounding above
normal. A cold front will push across early Thursday followed by
cool high pressure late in the week, becoming even colder
during this weekend with daily temperatures dropping to below
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 3 PM Monday...No shortage of clouds heading into evening
as W-NW flow directs plentiful upstream strato-cumulus this way.
It may take until after daybreak Tuesday to significantly scour
a path to clearing here, although the downslope component late
tonight will begin to gouge out and tear breaks in overcast.
Weak cold air advection late coupled with non-ideal radiational
cooling will lead to widespread 40s at daybreak across the CWA.
We will likely see an increase in low-level and surface wind-
speeds overnight as a tighter pressure gradient passes through
as the low departs. This should result in wind-chills in the
lower 40s at school bus pick-up time.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Primary headline this period is `changeable
weather` from cool and breezy sunshine Tuesday, to a warming trend
and mild temperatures with sunshine Wednesday. No rain this period.
Approaching cold front still west Wednesday, will prompt S-SW
winds, keeping the coastal regions in the 60s, but look for
maximums around 70 inland Wednesday afternoon. The progressive
flow will bring a chance of a few showers along and west of I-95
late Wednesday night into early Thursday. Mild temperatures
Wednesday night ahead of the front will see readings only a few
degrees cooler than average highs for late January.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...A cold front Thursday will signal the return
to winter with below seasonable temperatures expected to make a
return beginning Friday, and persisting thereafter for quite some
time. While temperatures Thursday will be above normal for the last
time, the sensible weather will be impacted by a cold front which
will move across the Carolinas during the late morning/early aftn.
This front will likely be accompanied by showers, but QPF should be
light. This front demarcates the edge of a significant longwave
trough which then builds into the eastern CONUS, with periodic
reinforcing shots of cold air into next week. The column becomes
quite dry, so while temps will fall back into the 40s and 50s for
highs, with mins at or below freezing most nights, sunshine will be
bright and no precip is forecast. Still, it will be quite a shock as
winter returns after 2 straight weeks of above, to well above,
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 18Z...Deep cold upper low will move slowly across the
Carolinas through tonight. moisture will wrap around this low
producing some mainly MVFR ceilings in shra this afternoon.
Once this low lifts to the northeast overnight, gusty northwest
winds will kick up across the terminals. Also may see a period
of some IFR ceilings overnight mainly after 06z in low stratus.
Winds will keep fog from developing tonight.
Extended outlook...Expect mainly VFR. A CFP with a few showers
is slated for early Thu.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Rough marine conditions tonight as a potent low
pressure pulls away from the 0-20 NM waters and produces W and NW
winds. Gusts to 30 KT can be expected overnight and early Tuesday.
The ocean state will remains tousled and confused as waning
southerly wave energy interacts with a strong offshore chop.
Isolated TSTMS will also plaque the waters, enhancing gusts and
popping cloud to sea lightning, favored mostly offshore.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Advisory flags will be flying Tuesday as a
strong low pressure pulling away, maintains a grip on the region. NW
winds 20 to 30 KT can be expected Tuesday. Winds will begin to ease
Tuesday night as the low releases its grip on the area and improving
marine conditions can be expected Tuesday through a good part of
Wednesday. S-SW winds will increase however Wednesday night as a
cold front rapidly approaches, and a small craft advisory may be
needed Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...A cold front crossing the waters on Thursday
will create a brief period of residual SCA conditions ahead of the
front, with SW winds of 20-25 kts creating seas of 4-6 ft. FROPA is
expected by the aftn, with a wind shift to the W/NW followed by a
slow decrease in speed to around 15 kts by Friday morning. These
winds, both in speed and direction, are expected then to persist
through the remainder of the period with maybe an increase to 15-20
kts by the wknd. Seas will fall from the SCA thresholds by early
Friday, but remain 3-5 ft into the wknd.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-