Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 290543 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 143 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure centered offshore will extend across the area through Monday. A cool front will approach and enter the area from the northwest and stall across the area during the early to mid week time line. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms along this front with a string of upper level disturbances enhancing the convective activity.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
All storms have exited offshore and no further convection is expected overnight. Relevant portion of previous discussion below: Previous................................................ For the overnight hours beyond 03 UTC, things should be quiet persisting well into Monday morning. For Monday afternoon, residual Piedmont troughing and very similar thermal parameters will offer up more chances of convection. Guidance pops from the MAV aren`t as high as this afternoon and evening but may trend up in time which can be the nature in the warm season regarding convection. SPC has most of the area in a slight risk for Monday. Thermal profiles show temperatures should be a little warmer Monday afternoon as does the official forecast. Overnight lows tonight will remain mostly in the 70s with maybe an upper 60 or two well inland.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 PM Sunday...With a boundary stalled over the area and some mid level energy still present Monday night may see a continuation of the afternoons` convective activity. This is especially suggesting by the 12Z WRF which shows a very agressive, possibly feedback-contaminated convective signal over mainly SC zones. Tuesday morning should offer a bit of a break in radar activity though not necessarily a rain-free period. With a little heating and the front still in the area Tuesday afternoon should once again see at least scattered coverage of thunderstorms. Coverage will wane to isolated or perhaps none at all later Tuesday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...GFS/ECMWF in agreement on the evolving H5 pattern in slowly migrating a broad but low amplitude trough eastward across the Great lakes and Ohio valley then into New England and SE Canada this period, while holding an upper ridge of varying amplitude over Florida and the Bahamas. This will allow a series of weak fronts and upper disturbances to move to our coasts, offering daily chances of thunderstorms. Late May/early June heating coupled with PWATS values between 1.50-1.80", and numerous surface boundaries, will support convection much of the extended forecast period. Next weekend potentially could turn wet, as enhancement of column moisture is drawn from the Gulf of Mexico by low pressure over Texas on Saturday, tracking to the Ohio Valley during Sunday. With the abundance of clouds, daytime temperatures will run near normal for the season, middle to upper 80s, but above average minimum temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 06Z...Cluster of tstms beneath a mid-level impulse has weakened and moved offshore, and VFR is expected through the valid period. Trough moving offshore will cause a wind shift to the W/NW this morning, but speeds will remain light around 5 kts into daybreak. Some mid and high level cloudiness will persist into the morning, but ceilings are not expected. After daybreak, winds will slowly back to the SW again as high pressure expands up the SE coast. Winds at the terminals Monday will be lighter than the past two days, but a locally backed sea breeze with gusts of 15-20 kts is likely again at CRE/MYR during the aftn. Scattered diurnal CU is also likely at all terminals, but again, not cig and VFR will persist into the evening. A mid-level impulse will approach from the W/SW late in the valid period, likely accompanied by convection developing beneath it and along a surface trough to the W of the area. Tstms are expected to once again impact the terminals Monday night, and have introduced -TSRA to LBT/FLO, but most of the activity will hold off until beyond this valid period. Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in thunderstorms Monday Night through Tuesday. More typical summertime scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday through Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 830 PM Sunday...The majority of the convective activity will diminish-some with regard to their intensity, after it pushes thru the sea breeze and eventually off the NC and SC coasts. The rather deep and stable sfc based marine layer will act to squash the convection this time of the year. The convection should push offshore during the early pre-dawn Monday hours ie. between 1 and 3 am. Overall synoptic pattern will produce a SW wind initially, veering to the W during the predawn Mon hrs. Wind speeds around 15 kt. Significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft and primarily a function of 3 to 5 second period wind waves. No identifiable ground swell to speak of. Previous................................................. As of 300 PM Sunday...Bermuda High pressure will keep a southwest flow in place over the waters through the period. Speeds will be mostly in a range of 10-15 knots with the exception of a few hours this afternoon when stronger low level jetting warrants a few hours of 15- 20. Speeds will relax a little Monday. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet with the four footers mostly confined to the next few hours coinciding with the slightly stronger winds. SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Cold front should be stalled over land, keeping marine flow out of the SW. Solutions that push the front farther and lead to veered flow currently not favored though impossible to rule out. This boundary will tend to remain quite stationary through the period keeping a fairly light southwesterly flow across the waters. The proximity of the boundary paired with the poorly defined nature of the Atlantic high will keep wind waves minimal and preclude any swell energy for an overall wave forecast of just 2 ft. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Near typical summer-like marine conditions this period as SW winds prevail with 2-3 foot seas. High pressure will remain centered just to the SE and E of Bermuda, and weak troughing inland should maintain SW wind flow Wed to Fri. The sea spectrum will be comprised of S-SSW waves 1-2 feet every 5 seconds and ESE waves 1-2 feet every 8 seconds. TSTMS will be active this period, moving generally from land to the coastal waters, and some may be strong from afternoon heating. Getting a radar update before heading out may be in the best interest of safely this period as we transition into a more active lightning and TSTM wind gust season. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 930 PM Sunday...A coastal flood advisory has been issued for low lying areas bordering the Lower Cape Fear River from Wilmington southward. Latest tide guidance for the river gage located in the lower Cape Fear River in the vicinity of downtown Wilmington, has forecast levels reaching 5.85 ft MLLW at the 107 AM high tide early Monday Morning. Flooding along the lower Cape Fear from Wilmington southward begins at the 5.5 ft MLLW. Thresholds for shallow flooding will occur in a 3 hour window centered around high tide and for this occurrence, it will run from 1130 PM Sunday to 230 AM Monday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for NCZ107. MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...DCH/JDW SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...JDW MARINE... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.