Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280821 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 321 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER OFFSHORE ALLOWING MILD AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. CLEARING AND COOLER WEDNESDAY AND NEW YEARS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE END OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A RETURN TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...VIRGA MAY BRING A SHOWY SUNRISE EARLY THIS MORNING AS EAST EQUATORIAL-PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE ALOFT CAUGHT IN WSW WINDS ALOFT TRACK OVERHEAD AND ADD ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY TO THE COLUMN FROM TOP DOWN. THE GENERAL TREND OF RECENT RADAR ANIMATIONS IS -RA LIFTING GRADUALLY NORTH OF NE SC AND SE NC...WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL TODAY. A FEW DROPS OR BRIEF SHOWERS COULD BRING THE INTERMITTENT WIND-SHIELD WIPERS ALONG I-95 AND POINTS TO THE WEST. PLENTIFUL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD BUT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE ALSO ARE EXPECTED...STILL BOILING DOWN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS. A MILD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE EXPECTED TODAY AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER. NEAR THE CHILLIER SEA LOW AND MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WIND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD COOLING INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR WHERE MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED SOONER THAN FARTHER INLAND. TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES TOWARD THE COAST...HIGHEST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. BY 12Z/7AM MONDAY THE FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO SE NC. WARM SECTOR FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT...MIST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NE SC AND THE SOUTH COASTAL ZONES...ICW...AND SC INSHORE WATERS...AS THE RICHER DEWPOINT AIR PASSES ACROSS THE CHILLED WATERS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE FRONT THAT IMPACTS THE REGION REALLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE GFS HAS BEEN HINTING AT DECENT POPS AND QPF ON AND OFF FOR A FEW CYCLES NOW AND WITH A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM A 700MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY MIDDAY MONDAY...POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED ONCE AGAIN. THE NAM HAS THIS FEATURE BUT QUITE A BIT EARLIER WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT LATER. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE. I HAVE INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT TO LIKELY FOR ALL AREAS BUT THE COASTAL ZONES SHOULD SEE THE MOST QPF. ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS TO WARRANT LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHERE DRIZZLE IS THE MORE LIKELY WEATHER TYPE. I HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT UPWARD FOR LOWS ALL VIA MORE MOISTURE AND A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM OVERALL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND ITS AFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LATE IN THE PERIOD...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UNTIL THIS TIME...MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE EAST AND WEAKEN WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WITH A WEAKER SOLUTION AS THE RIDGE...OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE LOW GETS KICKED OUT. THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND WEAKENS...RACING UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A WEAKLY FORCED FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WE SAW A SIMILAR SITUATION A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. WE HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE VALUES. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT A COLD AIR WEDGE MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AND EXTEND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATER IN THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AND CIGS LOWER...BR APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A THREAT DESPITE THE CALM SFC WINDS. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS STILL HINT AT SCT MVFR STRATOCU DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME -RA TO THE INLAND TERMINALS. AVIATION IMPACTS WOULD BE LIMITED EVEN IF ANY PRECIP FALLS AT KFLO OR KLBT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT DURING THE DAY. THIS WIND TRAJECTORY...BRINGING WARM MOIST AIR OVER COOL SHELF WATERS...WOULD FAVOR SEA FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 00Z MON. GUIDANCE AND SREF OUTPUT ARE ALREADY PICKING UP ON REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. KMYR/KCRE WOULD LIKELY BE THE FIRST SITES AFFECTED AS POTENTIAL SEA FOG SPREADS UP THE S.C. COAST. THIS COULD RESULT IN IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR NOW...WILL ADVERTISE MVFR VSBYS WITH SCT IFR/LIFR STRATUS...MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING/ONSET OF DENSE FOG. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ON MON. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO TUE. VFR ON WED. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE COASTAL SITES ON THU. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...PRONOUNCED LONG PERIOD WAVES ARE ARRIVING ONTO THE COAST FROM A PREVIOUS ATLANTIC DISTANT STORM...WITH WAVE PERIODS AROUND 15 SECONDS PROPAGATING ASHORE. LIGHT WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SW AND RISE TO 10-15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN SLIGHTLY ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN 200 PM AND 600 PM...BUT NOT TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN 15 KT EXPECTED. HIGHER SPEEDS EXPECTED OFFSHORE TODAY FROM SW...DUE TO MILDER WATERS THERE. LONG PERIOD E-SE SWELL WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING SSW CHOP TO PRODUCE MODERATE BUMPY SEAS BUT NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. NO TSTMS BUT PATCHY SEA FOG COULD PLAGUE SOME INSHORE MARINE LOCATIONS AS WINDS TURN A BIT MORE ONSHORE LATER TODAY. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...A FEW HOURS OF MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY MONDAY BUT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE DAY. SPEEDS INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO 10-15 KNOTS. SPEEDS INCREASE EVEN FURTHER TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE INCREASED GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE. AN UPTICK TO 15-20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. SEAS INCREASE FROM 1-3 FEET MONDAY TO 3-6 FEET LATE TUESDAY WITH A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SEE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS FOR MOST PART THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL VERY LATE. HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED WELL WEST OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH/RETURN FLOW VEERS WINDS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY...10-15 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS BY LATER THURSDAY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...BJR

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