Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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053 FXUS62 KILM 261850 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 250 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Hazardous beach conditions will continue through this evening as hurricane Maria moves slowly north offshore of the Carolinas. Maria will accelerate away from the United States beginning Thursday. A cold frontal passage late Thursday will bring cooler and drier air into the Carolinas Friday and into this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...The area continues to feel the outermost fringes of Maria with a decent albeit thinning stratocumulus layer. Some gusty winds near 20 mph and in some isolated cases higher remain as well. As the storm weakens and continues to drift to the north, northeast these elements will diminish as well. I have skies becoming partly cloudy near the coast with mostly clear skies inland. High pressure will build in at both the surface and mid levels Wednesday. Guidance and the official temperature forecast still calls for highs within a couple of degrees either side of 90. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Low amplitude mid level ridging will be developing through the period between a cutoff over the Great Basin and hurricane Maria off the coast. Combined these factors will yield a light northerly flow through most of the column for most of the period. This will keep the area rain-free and with fairly mild temperatures. Thursday night will see Maria rocketing off to the east. This clears the way for a fairly strong cold front to push through the area. The cooling will be quite tempered but a noticeable drop in humidity is expected. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Post-FROPA high pressure building in from the NW will lead to seasonal, early fall-like temperatures with generally dry conditions through the long term. It is possible that isolated showers could affect mainly the coastal regions during this period due to a combination of weak near- shore convergence and the occasional upper level short wave. However, limited moisture and a generally stable column would preclude significant or widespread QPF totals. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 18Z...Expect some residual MVFR ceilings this afternoon as a more diffuse stratus layer continues to hover across the area. Once again the coastal terminals have more cloud cover. The moisture will continue to diminish this evening and overnight and no IFR ceilings are expected. Mixing of the boundary layer will once again preclude fog formation. Extended Outlook...MVFR ceilings may linger/redevelop at the coastal terminals Wed night, mainly KILM. Wind gusts at KILM may gust to 15 to 20 kt. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Small craft advisory remains in effect through the period with periphery impacts from Maria. The end is finally in sight however as the north to northeast winds of 20-25 knots should taper off to 10-15 knots by late Wednesday but not before another surge late tonight into early Wednesday. Seas will remain elevated with 5-10 feet through about midday Wednesday then tapering off after that. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Offshore flow will grow lighter Wednesday night as the offshore circulation of Maria moves away from the region. A westerly direction should become slightly more favored than northwest as well, and NE swell energy will be abating. No flags or headlines are expected during the period. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...The long term trend will be of gradually increasing winds and building seas as high pressure moves in from the NW. NE winds through the period will increase to 15 to 20 kts by Saturday evening, with seas building to 4 to 6 ft by Sunday. In this case, is likely that a Small Craft Advisory will need to be issued for the latter portion of the long term. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. NC...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...REK AVIATION...SHK MARINE...REK/MBB/SHK

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