Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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362 FXUS62 KILM 012324 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 724 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching cold front will bring elevated shower and thunderstorm chances and slightly cooler temperatures through Wednesday. The weakening front will then slowly move offshore through Friday with a return of more typical summertime weather likely through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Latest surface analysis shows the Bermuda high still extending westward into the Carolinas, as has been the case for days now. Meanwhile, persistent flow out of the SSW has continued to bring in more isolated showers and storms. Coverage is a bit higher than yesterday, thanks to a little more forcing from an upper low offshore of the Florida Atlantic coast. These intermittent showers and storms continue through this afternoon, dying after sunset. Convection will try to reignite in some isolated spots inland late tonight, thanks to some weak lobes of vorticity ahead of the main upper trough. Lows tonight in the low-to-mid 70s. Upper trough pattern slowly progresses eastward through the Carolinas Wednesday, dragging a cold front with it. Kinematics with this system aren`t particularly impressive, so severe weather isn`t much of a concern. Despite that, showers and storms are expected to become more widespread in the afternoon as the atmosphere becomes more moderately unstable. Long, skinny CAPE profiles and precipitable water values soaring above 2 inches create a potential flash flooding concern, particularly in training storms. Storm motions and Corfidi downshear vectors are a bit faster than they have been in previous days (15-19 kts), so it may take a bit more training to get flooding. Even with precipitable water hanging above 2 inches, there`s some lingering dry air in the upper levels that would inhibit widespread flooding concerns. Even so, rainfall rates of 1-3"/hour cannot be ruled out, and we are in a "Marginal Risk" (threat level 1/4) for excessive rainfall. Highs only reach the mid-to-upper 80s before clouds and rain cut off the heat. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Some higher pops remain across the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning via the pre frontal trough and associated convection. Per usual the front lags behind and the wind shift gradually occurs mid day or so Thursday. Good chance pops reside more along coastal areas later Thursday due this slow progression. The forecast remains dry for Friday. Highs will be in the lower to middle 90s with lows in the lower to middle 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Overall a nice start to the holiday weekend with refreshing temperatures and lower dewpoints as high pressure builds in from the northeast. Forecast becomes a bit more challenging later in the weekend into next week as some offshore moisture may advect slowly into the region. This along with quick air mass modification warrants lower chance pops beginning Sunday and increasing slightly into the new work week. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High clouds will begin moving in from the west early tonight, with lower clouds developing inland during pre-dawn hours. Moderate confidence in sub-VFR ceilings around 1500 ft west of I-95 from ~9z into Wednesday morning, but confidence is lower on if these ceilings will impact KFLO and KLBT, and if they do how long before they lift to VFR. Currently forecasting MVFR at FLO from 10-14z, hanging on a little longer at LBT until ~16z. There may be light showers overnight, but thunder chances are low. Shower coverage increases during the day Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front, with scattered thunderstorms and potentially heavy rain rates expected by midday leading to variable vsbys. South- southwest winds around 5-10kts for most of the TAF period, with gusts of 15-20 kts during the day. Extended Outlook...Expect possible flight restrictions Thursday through Saturday from isolated to scattered afternoon/evening convection.
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&& .MARINE... Through Wednesday... Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 AM EDT Wednesday. Southwesterly winds continue, backing off to 15 kts after the advisory is over, gusting up to 20-22 kts. Seas mostly linger near 3-4 ft, with a few 5-6 ft waves likely during the advisory. Wednesday Night through Sunday... A brief wind shift will occur Thursday which becomes distorted during the day via the sea breeze and follows a similar trend Friday and Friday night. A slightly better defined NE to E flow develops at least briefly Saturday. Finally a weak coastal trough will mark a return to more of a southeast direction by the end of the period. As for wind speeds not really anticipating anything of the standard 10-15 knots. Significant seas will be mostly 2-4 feet perhaps better represented by 2-3 feet at times. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for the beaches of Brunswick County, as well as beaches north of Myrtle Beach in Horry County, for Tuesday and Wednesday as southerly 6 sec swell builds to 4-5 feet ahead of an approaching cold front. Breaking wave heights around 5 feet are possible on Tuesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...IGB SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...VAO MARINE...SHK/IGB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...