Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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738 FXUS62 KILM 271458 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1058 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure ridging down the coast will gradually retreat northeast today with its influence on the area weakening. A dry cold front will cross the area late tonight and move offshore Friday morning. High pressure will follow for the weekend with above normal temperatures expected. Another dry cold front should move across the area on Monday. High pressure will build in from the north following the second front but cold air is limited and above normal temperatures will continue. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM Thursday...High pressure centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast is slowly displacing to the east this morning ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. This front will take all day to reach the area, not crossing until early Friday actually, and as the high moves east, return flow will increase ahead of this boundary. The gradient will remain relatively weak today, but SW winds around 10 kts will help drive temps into the mid 70s, with abundant cirrus and scattered aftn CU filtering the sunshine. As this front approaches, the dynamics weaken, but soundings suggest at least some increasing saturation beneath 850mb. This may allow for a spot shower or two locally, mostly in the Cape Fear counties, but have maintained silent POP with SCHC just N/NE of the CWA. With the front not crossing until very late, a warm night is forecast, with mins falling only into the low 60s at the coast, upper 50s inland. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Thursday...A weak cold front will slowly drop south of the forecast area on Friday while dissipating, followed by a dry and unseasonably mild airmass for the end of the week. Daytime temperatures will trend higher through the period and continued above normal, peaking in the upper 70s to around 80 many places by Saturday. The beaches will trend slightly cooler. No significant precip is expected through the short term. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Elongated high pressure over the Southeast Sun morning will be pushed south during the day by weak cold front approaching from the northwest. Sun will be the warmest day of the period with highs in low 80s. Front passes dry, lacking any mid level support or deep moisture. The front itself is associated with a weak shortwave/surface low crossing New England on Sun. There is a slight suppression of the 5h ridge over the southern CONUS but by Mon the 5h ridge will expand back over the region while surface high to the north builds south. Incoming air mass is only slightly cooler than the preceding one, in fact 850 temps are only forecast to drop a degree or two Celsius Mon before steadily climbing back to post front levels late in the week. Surface and mid level ridging will remain in place through the end of the period, keeping the region dry and contributing to temps above climo. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 12Z...Some high clouds are expected today in advance of a weak cold front that will be in the region at the end of the forecast period. Light winds will be replaced by a southeast resultant along the coast this afternoon. Tonight, moisture profiles support fog, however winds just off the deck will be around 15 kts, so only minimal fog anticipated. Extended Outlook...VFR expected. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM Thursday...High pressure moving slowly offshore ahead of an approaching cold front is persisting S/SE winds across the waters this morning. As this high shifts offshore, winds will veer to the SW this evening but remain light at around 10 kts. A weak sea breeze circulation is forecast near-shore, but this will create little change in the synoptic flow. The front is expected to cross the waters very late tonight or early on Friday, causing a wind shift to the west with speeds still AOB 10 kts. Seas of 2-3 ft will be widespread, with a weak SE swell and southerly wind wave comprising the spectrum. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Thursday...A weak cold front will slowly drop south of the waters on Friday while dissipating, followed by a dry and unseasonably mild high pressure system for the end of the week. Conditions will continue to remain benign, with winds of around 10 kts and seas of around 2 or 3 ft. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Elongated surface high just south of the waters Sun morning will retreat southeast during the day as cold front approaches from the northwest. Light southwest flow Sun and Sun night will become northerly Mon morning as the front pushes southeast of the waters. Minimal cold advection following the front and lack of any significant gradient will keep post front speeds under 10 kt. Surface high to the northwest quickly shifts east with winds steadily veering from northwest to northeast and then east later Mon and Mon night. Seas will run 2 to 3 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...III AVIATION...III MARINE...III/JDW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.