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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 102317
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
717 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRING-LIKE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
MID-WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BRINGING CHILLY AIR INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SLIGHT WARMING WILL BRING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEKEND. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 7:30 PM MONDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING STILL EXPECTING A CLEAR AND
COOL OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MARCH SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW HAS BROUGHT TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 70S ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST AS WNW WINDS HAVE KEPT
THE SEA BREEZE FRONT FASTENED TO THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR
SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT...PROMOTING A
DEEP DIP AND A NOCTURNAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE NEAR 30 DEGREES
FROM MAXIMUMS TODAY...AWAY FROM THE MARINE INFLUENCE. THUS WE
EXPECT MIDDLE 40S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND AROUND 50 BEACHES. A
FEW OF OUR INLAND COLD SPOTS MAY MANAGE LOWER 40S AT DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TUES AS SHORTWAVE MAKES ITS WAY UP
FROM THE GULF COAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH DEEP W-SW FLOW WILL PRODUCE A SUNNY AND
VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON TUES. 850 TEMPS WILL
BE UP AROUND 13 C WITH H5 HEIGHTS UP AROUND 570 DEM. EXPECT TEMPS
TO SOAR INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.

TUES NIGHT THE SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REACHING
UP INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY WED AS IT CONTINUES ITS
PROGRESS TO THE EAST. AT THE SAME TIME A NORTHERN STREAM STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN AND BACK WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUES
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
INITIALLY EXPECT IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH LATE
TUES. THE BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WED MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHC OF SHOWERS BUT
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA.

LOCAL AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON BEFORE
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WED EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY FORCING FOR ANY CHC OF PCP WITH THE SECOND
SYSTEM WILL COME RIGHT ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT LATER ON WED. THE
DYNAMICS WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS. IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES OFF
QUICKER...THERE COULD BE SOME SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WITH THE
FRONT...BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE GREATEST CHC OF PCP WILL COME EARLY
WED MORNING. WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER AREA THROUGH WED
KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO BUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUE GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER AND PCP.

COLD FRONT WILL BRING A TOTAL CHANGE IN AIR MASS WED NIGHT. THE STRONG
CAA IN ITS WAKE WITH PRODUCE A 15 TO 20 C DROP IN 850 TEMPS
THROUGH WED MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP FROM 70S DOWN TO 30S
ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS BY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A HARSH RETURN TO REALITY THAT IT IS STILL
TECHNICALLY ASTRONOMICAL WINTER...AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT WHICH WILL BE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG CAA BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR VERY LITTLE WARMING...AND MOS NUMBERS CONTINUE TO TREND
DOWNWARD. EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S (SIGH) ACROSS
THE NC ZONES..."WARMING" TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...AND
APPARENT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN RISE MUCH ABOVE 40! A VERY COLD
NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OVERHEAD AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED BENEATH
DECOUPLED WINDS AND CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SUB-FREEZING TEMPS...WITH SOME MID 20S POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT OFFICIALLY
BEGUN...SOME EARLY SENSITIVE PLANTS/CROPS MAY BE IMPACTED BY SEVERAL
HOURS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FORTUNATELY...AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY...WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING OFFSHORE WILL HELP FRIDAY
WARM CONSIDERABLY FROM THURSDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
CLIMO FOR MID-MARCH. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE INTO
SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WHICH MAY CREATE SOME
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE...AS
IT GETS SHUNTED QUICKLY BACK TO THE EAST BY A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP INHERITED SCHC POP AT
THE COAST SATURDAY...BUT EXPECT VERY LITTLE COVERAGE OF PRECIP...AND
WILL LIKELY JUST BE SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER. LITTLE AIR MASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...SO BOTH SAT AND SUN
WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE TEMPS.

FORECAST BECOMES QUITE INTERESTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT
STALLS OFFSHORE...CREATING A SHARP BAROCLINIC GRADIENT OFFSHORE UPON
WHICH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP AND MOVE UP THE
COAST. STILL A LONG WAY OFF AND MANY DETAILS TO SETTLE OUT...BUT A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
WILL SHOW INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT
WITH THE CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR DUE TO FOG INLAND AND AT KCRE OVERNIGHT AS AREAS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAIN IN THE ATMOSPHERE AS SEEN BY LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOWERED CONFIDENCE HAVE KEPT WITH TEMPO
GROUP ATTM. FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/MVFR
ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:30 PM MONDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO
15 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT. THIS IS IN KEEPING WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

OTHER THAN FRIGID SEA WATER...NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS ON THE WATERS
THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WINDS HOWEVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
FROM THE WSW AT 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT...BUT MOSTLY
OFFSHORE AWAY FROM COLD WATERS. INSHORE WATERS SHOULD EXPECT 10-15
KT WSW WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON MAY HOLD WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...BUT LINING BACK UP TO SW- WSW AS THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION TAPERS OFF IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE EVENING.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OFF SHORE FLOW EARLY TUES WILL BACK AND
INCREASE THROUGH LATE TUES INTO WED. SW-W FLOW ON TUES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS BUT WILL REACH UP TO 20 TO 25 KT ON WED AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE WATERS WED EVENING...PUSHING EAST
OF THE WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. STRONG CAA AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THIS STRONG SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL BUILD SEAS FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON TUES
TO 3 TO 5 FT BY WED MORNING AND UP TO 4 TO 8 FT LATER ON WED INTO
WED NIGHT. AS WINDS VEER AROUND BEHIND FRONT THE STRONG OFF SHORE
NW FLOW WILL ALLOW NEAR SHORE SEAS TO SUBSIDE BUT WILL KEEP OFF
SHORE SEAS UP TO 5 TO 7 FT INTO DAYBREAK THURS. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REACH SCA THRESHOLDS BY WED AFTN AND WILL LAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD LEAVES GUSTY NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE...WITH SPEEDS OF 20-30 KTS
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ISOLATED GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...AND WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BEGIN TO EASE QUICKLY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. SPEEDS WILL EASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS...WITH A
VARIABLE DIRECTION ON FRIDAY BENEATH THE HIGH PRESSURE.
SATURDAY...HIGH DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND RENEWED RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS...WITH 10-15 KT WINDS FROM THE SW EXPECTED. HIGHEST SEAS OF
4-7 FT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...FALLING TO 1-2 FT ON
FRIDAY WITH THE WEAK WINDS AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SWELL. SW RETURN
FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS BACK TO 2-3 FT ON SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ