Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 010611 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 210 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1100 PM TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED NE OF THE AREA AND WITH THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED. THUS...POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED...OR CUT TO SLIGHT CHANCE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST...WHERE A WEAK MESO-LOW MAY STILL SPARK A SHOWER BEFORE IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD DEBRIS AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 FOR MANY INLAND AREAS TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LARGE TROUGH. AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION THEY WILL WEAKEN. AT THE SURFACE...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY WILL BE INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN WITH 20 TO 40 PERCENT POP EACH DAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S TO THE UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S AT THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LONGER WAVE TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS REMAINS DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WHILE A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE RIDING AROUND THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY SOUTH ON FRI AND THIS SHOULD REACH FAR ENOUGH INTO NC TO PRODUCE AN ENHANCED CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BUT SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT CONVERGENCE TO OUR NORTH. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND BERMUDA RIDGE OVER LOCAL FORECAST AREA AND LOCAL BOUNDARIES INCLUDING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL COME INTO PLAY AS INITIATING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2 INCHES OVER THE AREA ENHANCED LLJ UP TO 40 KT. A STRONGER WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL ACT TO DRIVE ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO KEEP BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT DOWN A LITTLE CLOSER. OVERALL WILL KEEP WITH MOISTURE RICH FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH AND SOME PERIODIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA AND SOME PERIODS OF SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT CONVECTION BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN KEEPING SHWRS/TSTMS IN FORECAST EACH DAY. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO SEE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRECIP IS OVER FOR THE NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO FOG EXPECTED WITH DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WEDNESDAY...SHOULD BE A QUIETER DAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. ANY CONVECTION AT ALL WILL PROBABLY BE ALONG THE RESULTANT JUST AFTER MAX HEATING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1100 PM TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS UP TO 20 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TOWARD MORNING AND WITH THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH AN INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AROUND 20 MILES OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOCAL NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL IS SHOWING SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET WITH 2 TO 3 FEET NEAR SOUTH OF MURRELLS INLET. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BERMUDA RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOULD BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW DUE TO BOUNDARY PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. NOT EXPECTING THIS BOUNDARY TO REACH INTO OUR WATERS...BUT MAY VEER WINDS AROUND A BIT TO A MORE SW FLOW RATHER THAN S-SW. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A SE SWELL TO PUSH WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5 FT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT TIMES IN THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT GETS PINCHED IN THE LEE OF THE SHARPENING PIEDMONT TROUGH AND ENHANCED SEA BREEZE FLOW. MAY SEE PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION AND WNA SHOWS SEAS SURPASSING SCA THRESHOLDS LATE FRI INTO SAT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DL/RAN

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