Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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521 FXUS62 KILM 260800 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 400 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures will prevail much of the upcoming week as high pressure offshore brings southerly winds. A series of low pressure systems will bring a chance of rain Monday into Tuesday, and again late next week. A cooling trend is expected into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 4 AM Sunday...Much the same as previous day as an expansive area of strato cu remains over off shore waters and plenty of cirrus streaming over the Carolinas in SW flow aloft. The SE return flow around the ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic will push some of these clouds on shore through the day and should see any stray showers stay mainly over the waters. There may be some patchy fog around just around sunrise. The cloud cover along with plenty of WAA have helped to keep overnight temps close to 60. This will give a jump start to warm day ahead. The WAA will battle the cloud cover allowing temps to reach into the mid to upper 70s this aftn. Low pressure tracking up the Mississippi Valley will increase the chc of pcp into the mountains and although this will not directly affect our area, there will be increased moisture advection in SW flow aloft. Pcp water values near .65 inches will increase over an inch through late Sun aftn. This may help to trigger some showers over the central Carolinas and may see a stray shower reach farther east...mainly west of I-95 late Sunday, as well as increasing mid level clouds. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 4 AM Sunday...Chief headline this period "Warm and Balmy" and an offering of the best rain chances until late in the week, in particular on Tuesday as a short-wave whisks overhead. Dryish mid-level air will limit rainfall amounts and QPF output far from stellar. The low-level heating and dewpoint fields will continue to warrant a slight chance of a TSTM however, and a few lucky folks may see higher local rainfall dumps from convection. Pronounced drying in the mid-levels in wake of the cold frontal passage late Tuesday night will curtail showers by daybreak Wednesday, but no cold air follows the front. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 4 AM Sunday...Brief high pressure intrusion via a back- door cold front will bring a slightly cooler day on Thursday with a lag of cooler air on Wednesday in wake of a frontal crossing of the coast. Thursday morning lows may end up being the coolest portion of the week, before warm air advection cranks up again by Thursday night ahead of a potent southern stream impulse. This system will offer the best rain chance of late, and potentially a good soaking. Right now the amplified nature of the shot-wave suggest a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out late Thursday night into Friday. A few showers may linger into Saturday beneath the cold pool of the amplified trough, with drying and cooling through the day with a cool morning lows in the 40s Sunday. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 06Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period in a mild and moist weak southerly return flow. Winds will generally be SE to S up to 10 kts in the aftn but otherwise 5 kts or less. An expansive cu field just off shore may get pushed on shore in SE flow and therefore included period of SCT to BKN deck around 3 to 5 k ft...mainly affecting the coastal terminals. Expect some cu to affect inland TAF sites Sun aftn also. The mid levels will continue dry but SW flow in the mid to upper levels will continue to feed cirrus over the area. A few SHRA possible late Sunday inland, but not enough in areal coverage to warrant inclusion in the TAFs as of yet. Extended outlook...Flight category restrictions are possible in a few bouts of showers and thunderstorms Mon through Tue and again Thurs night. Expect VFR conditions after cold front moves through on Wed lasting into Thurs. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 4 AM Sunday...Southeasterly return flow will continue around Atlantic high through the period. Winds will fluctuate slightly from SE to S remaining 10 kts or less. Winds near shore Sunday afternoon will be a little bit higher, in the 10 to 15 kt range, and gustier as the afternoon sea breeze circulation sets up. The persistent southerly flow will push seas gradually but overall will remain in the 2 to 4 ft range. Seas will remain right around the 3 ft range through the period. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 4 AM Sunday...No advisories expected this period, but SE swell waves will keep sea heights relatively elevated given the 15 KT or less wind- speeds. Wave periods of around 10 seconds will prevent steepness, and this will be co-joined by light to moderate S-SW chop this period. A cold front will cross the waters late Tuesday night accompanied by showers and isolated TSTMS. Patchy marine fog or mist is possible on Tuesday. A hearty sea breeze will produce gusts to 19 KT near shore in the afternoons. Both Mon/Tue S-SW winds 15 KT or less sustained. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... as of 4 AM Sunday...Light winds Wednesday in wake of a cold front can be expected, followed by a wind-shift to the N_NE Wednesday night as a back door cold front pushes across the 0-20 NM waters. Briefly this intrusion will transition to light wind as the high moves overhead Thursday afternoon. A strong and progressive southern system will bring increasing SE-S winds late Thursday and an Advisory may very well be needed for 25 KT gusts late Thursday night ahead of its cold front. Strong storms and numerous showers appear likely on the water Friday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...RGZ

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