Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 282032 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 332 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ALLOWING FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CLEARING AND COOLER WEDNESDAY AND NEW YEARS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MILD AND WET WEATHER MAY RETURN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION FINALLY ALLOWING CLOUD COVER TO RETURN TO COASTAL LOCATIONS. EVEN SO...AN UNSEASONABLY MILD AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...NOW JUST CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE FROM NW TO SE BUT MAY BE VERY GRADUAL UNTIL THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME WHEN A LITTLE BIT OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THEREAFTER WE SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANCES GO UP MORE DECIDEDLY AS COLD FRONT AND WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NW. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD VERY CONSIDERABLY WITH A MODERATE RAIN BREAKING OUT LATE TONIGHT OVER FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND THUS DO NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH ASCENT FROM THE OVERRUNNING OF THE DEVELOPING WEDGE. FOR SIMILAR REASONS THERE WILL BE N TO S GRADIENT IN LOW TEMPS. AS DEWPOINTS RISE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SOME SEA FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BUT ITS TOUGH TO SEE IT ADVECTING INLAND MUCH IN THE NEARLY COAST-PARALLEL FLOW SAVE FOR PARTS OF COASTAL BRUNSWICK COUNTY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER ON TAP FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES AND A COLD FRONT PROPAGATING FROM THE WEST GRADUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF RAINFALL. HAVE BUMPED UP QPF SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT POSSIBILITY OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO POSSIBLY ONE HALF INCH IN ISOLATED AREAS. EXPECT RAINFALL TO TAPER OFF INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS A VERY GRADUAL DRYING TREND AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY INFILTRATES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUPPORT THIS AS VALUES DO NOT DROP BELOW ONE INCH UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR ONE HALF INCH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...ANTICIPATE A HEALTHY CLOUD DECK TO LINGER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA INCREASING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS YOU MOVE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY...WITH ALMOST A 10 DEGREE DROP TO THE LOW TO UPPER 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...FOR THE BEGINNING HALF OF THE PERIOD THE REGION BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A COOL NE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY STARTS TO BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE AND KEEP REGION BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY D+6 WEATHER GETS A BIT MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTH PUSHES A WARM FRONT IN OFF THE WATERS PUSHING TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND EXTENDING INLAND. OUR TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN OUR INLAND NEIGHBORING WFOS WITH THIS FEATURE. POPS ARE TWEAKED UP A BIT FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS BRING ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE MAIN LOW UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS MODERATE WELL INTO THIS WEEKEND RISING ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 18Z...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON MAY USHER IN A SOUTHERLY RESULTANT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEA FOG/STRATUS...ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS REMOTE AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL WAVE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR DEVELOPING AT ALL SITES AFTER 06Z. LIKEWISE OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 07-09Z OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND AROUND DAYBREAK FOR THE COAST TERMINALS. MODELS INDICATE PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LIGHT...PERHAPS ONLY DRIZZLE. MONDAY...A PRETTY ROTTEN AVIATION DAY WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL DAY IN THE OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ON MON. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO TUE. VFR ON WED. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE COASTAL SITES ON THU. RAIN POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...WIND CURRENTLY VERY LIGHT AND COOLER SSTS LIKELY INHIBITING VERTICAL MIXING OF THIS WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE. SEAS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE LIGHT WINDS WOULD IMPLY AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE A 15 SECOND SWELL THAT IS THE HIGHEST PEAK IN SPECTRAL WAVE PLOTS. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL BACK WINDS JUST SLIGHTLY AND ADD A FEW KNOTS IN SPEED. OVERALL SEAS MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH IN HEIGHT BUT DOMINANT PERIOD MAY SHORTEN. THE APPROACH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL AID IN A DEWPOINT SURGE THAT COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...SCEC POSSIBLE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IN LIEU OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS LATER ON MONDAY. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT 1 TO 3 FT EARLY...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT...WITH 5 FTERS POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SEE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE SE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME SITUATED OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TOT HE NORTHEAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE HIGHEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...10-15 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS BY LATER THURSDAY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE VEERING TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS AGAIN. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 1-3 FEET WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...2-4 FEET.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...SGL LONG TERM...MAC AVIATION...43

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.