Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 270718 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 315 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED WEST OF FLORENCE QUICKLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. WITH A DECENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND 1 OR 2 OF THESE COULD MOVE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 67 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... ONSHORE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THURSDAY PAIRED WITH 5KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WELL INLAND AS SEA BREEZE STABILIZES COASTAL LOCALES AND THE BOUNDARY MAKES GOOD INLAND PROGRESS. SMALL CHANGES ON FRIDAY WITH ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH RIDGING BACK MORE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE MID RIDGE TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, IF ANY MAY BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT BEING IN THE FORECAST AT ALL. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS THINGS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. MARINE INFLUENCES APPEAR TO KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS RAIN-FREE DUE TO STABILITY BUT ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION REMAINS TOUGH TO RULE OUT INLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD TEMPER AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHILE ADDED CLOUD COVER MAY ADD A FEW TO LOWS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL EVER SO SLIGHTLY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 06Z...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS VARYING CIG HEIGHTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR AREA...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP VCTS/VCSH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AREAS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO QUIET DOWN LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR AS LOW CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AFFECT THE AREA. AFTER DAYBREAK WED...SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...INLAND SSW TO BECOME SSE AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN...THOUGH GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO EXACT TIMING...HAVE KEPT VCTS/VCSH ONGOING TAF ATTM. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ONTO LAND. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY BRINGS ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE FAR OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL WILL YIELD 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FRIDAY WILL BRING JUST A SLIGHT VEER TO EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LOW. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SEAS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE DURING THE SHORT TERM REMAINS FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM BUT PULLS ITS RIDGE AXIS FROM BEING TO PROMINENTLY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT 10 KTS AND THERE MAY BE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW SINCE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE WEAKENED. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DCH/SGL

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