Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 301426 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1026 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. A COASTAL FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING GOOD RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 AM WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A SWATH OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ACROSS MUCH OF NC AND NORTHERN SC MAKING ITS WAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY...AND INFLUENCE FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE AVERAGES FOR LATE JULY. ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT STRATOCU FIELD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY...SOUNDINGS DON`T SUPPORT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. CHANCE OF A BRIEF POPUP SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...BUT PROBABILITY IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SHORT TERM THANKS TO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE HUDSON BAY MAINTAINING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST. THIS FEATURE WILL VERY GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE WKND...AND THUS SUBTLE THICKNESS INCREASES WILL OCCUR...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BACK MORE TO THE S/SW OFF THE SURFACE...INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE. PWATS THURSDAY AROUND 1.75 INCHES ARE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE VALUES FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WETTER DAY HOWEVER...AS COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TOWARDS THE COAST...LIKELY MOVING ONSHORE LATE FRIDAY. PWATS RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND CONTINUED UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE JET-STREAK EMBEDDED DOWNWIND OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...TO CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT/NOCTURNAL DECREASE OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY...BUT DO EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE PEE DEE REGION OF SC MAY APPROACH 90. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES RISE FRIDAY...CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIMIT WARMING...AND THUS HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THURSDAY. MINS BOTH NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND...AROUND 70 AT THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A WET PERIOD EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM...MAKING THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST COOL AND UNSETTLED. LARGE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE EASTERN CONUS FOR SOME TIME WILL FINALLY...SLOWLY...BEGIN TO ERODE THANKS TO THE WEAKENING OF THE PARENT VORTEX...AND THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WHILE THIS RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THE PERSISTENT TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL TUESDAY FOR ANY NOTICEABLE WARMING/DRYING TO OCCUR LOCALLY...AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE REASON FOR THIS IS BECAUSE AS THE TROUGH BEGINS RECEDE TO THE WEST...A COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS PROVIDES STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION...WHILE MID-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS ON INCREASING S/SW FLOW DOWNWIND OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS PRODUCES PWATS OVER TWO INCHES...WHICH COMBINE WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE JET STREAK AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO CREATE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND EVEN INTO MONDAY. FINALLY BY TUESDAY THE SURFACE TROUGH WASHES OUT...RIDGING TAKES HOLD ALOFT...AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER DEVELOPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KT THIS AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD. KFLO/KLBT MAY SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT/VRB WINDS TODAY AS THE GRADIENT IS FAIRLY WEAK. SOME 4-6KFT CU WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDDAY...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY ABOVE 700 MB. THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN IN THE TAFS ATTM. MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO EAST AOB 5 KT. NAM GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT AT KFLO/KLBT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON REDUCED VSBYS GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK GRADIENT BETWEEN OFFSHORE FRONT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL NE TO E FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR SHORE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION..WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME SE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS JUST BEYOND 20 NM HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED...AND DON`T ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON OR OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE PUSHED BACK TOWARDS THE COAST THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE DURING FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK NEAR THIS FEATURE...WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A VEERING FROM THE EAST THURSDAY...TO SE ON FRIDAY...WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. SEVERAL WAVE GROUPS WILL EXIST WITHIN THE SPECTRUM...BUT A LOW AMPLITUDE SE GROUND SWELL AND EAST AND SOUTHEAST WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE 2-3 FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NW OF THE WATERS BY EARLY SATURDAY...AND REMAIN INLAND DURING THE WKND. WINDS BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL VEER SLOWLY FROM SE TO SW...AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 2-3 FT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT SOME 4 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THANKS TO THE LONGER SPATIAL FETCH FROM THE S/SE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CRM NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH

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