Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 290737 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 337 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA WHILE A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINAS COASTLINES. DURING THIS SATURDAY MORNING...VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING MID CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS 2 TO 8 KTS...WITH THE HIER SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH DIURNAL SCATTERED CU TO OCCUR. NE WINDS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 KT VEERING TO THE ENE-ESE AOB 12 KTS DUE TO THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG WITH THE AFTN/EVENING MESOSCALE INDUCED RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...AKA SEA BREEZE. A GRADUAL INCREASING TREND OF OPAQUE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. E TO ESE WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET SAT...POSSIBLY GOING CALM BY MIDNIGHT SUN ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...
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HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE ITS SOMEWHAT PREDICTED FROM THE HIGHER NE WIND WAVES DUE TO THE LOWER FETCH FOR THEM TO GROW. THE MODEST 1020+ HIGH BROADLY CENTERED FROM OVER THE NC-VA BORDER TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY IN PLACE THRU THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS SAME TIME...A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THIS MORNING...THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TO A POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA WATERS IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING A TIGHTENED SFC PG ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE LOW EXITING NE OF THE AREA WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SOLID NE TO ENE 15 TO 20 KT WIND TODAY...THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN FROM THE INCREASED NE WINDS FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SOLID 3 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT LATER TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE A LIMITED FETCH WILL EXIST FOR GROWING NE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE WINDS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DCH

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