Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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865 FXUS62 KILM 221522 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1022 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure holding offshore, will bring Spring-like weather until a cold front arrives Monday. This front should bring a chance of rain, followed by temperatures returning to closer to normal early next week. A warming trend with increasing rain chances next Wednesday and Thursday can be expected, as low pressure approaches from the west.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1022 AM Thursday...Interesting `differential heating` boundary/convergence line inland tracking north, a few drops under it but the narrow, linear feature, has not measured anywhere, per meso-net and ASOS/AWOS scans. Will keep low end POPS here, but convergence should weaken along this meso-scale feature. as inland stratus transitions to cumulus, weakning the differential heating circulation. Re-shaped sky grids to show more clouds western zones versus eastern zones today. Diurnal cumulus should become widespread, though immediate coastal zones will receive mostly sunny conditions and sea breeze cooling. Will take a look at maximum temperatures well inland where this thick overcast remains very much intact still. As of 300 AM Thursday...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 am. Much of the same for the forecast through tonight as Bermuda ridge remains offshore. This will produce a warm and humid southerly return flow across the area while maintaining plenty of subsidence and dry air aloft. The very shallow moisture will once again carry areas of fog through the morning commute lifting by mid morning with only some strato cu left by late morning. Subsidence inversion holds around 4-5k ft and therefore do not count any showers with strato cu mainly between 3500 to 5k ft this afternoon. Temperatures will once again cruise into the 70s reaching around 80 most places except for the beaches which will experience a cooler sea breeze. Records are once again poised to be broken with Wilmington record of 78 in 2003, Florence 80 in 1990, North Myrtle Beach 75 in 2007 and Lumberton 78 in 2003. Going with persistence again tonight will lead to areas of fog with some patchy dense fog developing through the early morning hours. Any nocturnal showers over the waters will be spotty at best and therefore do not count on any brushing up over the land. Overnight lows will drop to between 55 and 60 most places.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Upper ridge and sfc ridging will continue to be the main features controlling the area`s weather this period. Friday will basically be a persistence fcst based on the previous several days. However, Saturday will begin to see the upper ridge flatten somewhat along with the magnitude of the sfc ridging retreat back to the east. Successive mid-level short waves will keep trying to erode the upper ridging as they remain well west but just north of the FA during Sat. Have increased Sat POPs to a low chance across inland counties and have them becoming more isolated across the coastal counties. For Sat, clouds and possible pcpn may shave off several degrees from the days progged highs but nevertheless, this period`s max/min temp fcst will continue to run an amazingly 20 degrees above normal, in Feb no less!! Have hit the land fog hard Friday night but not as hard Sat night due to cloudiness. Sea fog could partially move onshore Friday thru Sat and will continue with prefixing the sea fog with patchy except areas for a few hrs Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...The record-breaking upper level ridge should retrograde back into the Gulf of Mexico and across Florida by Saturday. An upper disturbance across the Plains states should damp out as it moves east into the ridge Sunday and Monday, but should still knock heights down enough to allow deep moisture pulled off the western Gulf of Mexico to reach the area Sunday night through Monday. Bermuda high pressure at the surface will remain off the Carolina coast through Sunday while continuing to advect an unseasonably warm and humid airmass into the area. A few record high temperatures will be possible again Saturday and Sunday. Sunday`s record high of 79 in Florence looks particularly breakable. By Sunday, increasing moisture ahead the front and the disappearance of the subsidence inversion should spread these showers chances down to the coast as well. The front itself should cross the area Monday morning, finally pushing the tropical airmass out of the area. Long-range models show rain chances peaking behind the front Monday morning as a ~12 hour period of isentropic lift overrunning the frontal surface develops aloft. Once the front pushes down into Georgia the drier, cooler air from the north should become deep enough to dry our weather back out, with more seasonable temperatures expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. It`s interesting to note that the tremendous negative temperature departures we rang up in early January (15-25 degrees below normal for seven consecutive days) will almost be cancelled out by the exceptional warmth we`re experiencing now (February 20-25). Since December`s temperatures averaged near normal, it`s likely the meteorological winter of 2017-2018 will go down in the record books as "near normal" for average temperature... despite the roller coaster ride we`ve been on seeming anything but normal! && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 12Z...Persistent pattern continues. LIFR fog at most sites, save the Myrtles, they may briefly go down to IFR. Southerly flow again today with the fog dissipating by 15Z at all terminals. Sea breeze cumulus expected, could produce a brief shower. Tonight, all signs point to a repeat fog appearance. Extended Outlook...Morning IFR/BR possible through Sat am. Showers and MVFR conditions possible Sunday through Monday, drying Tuesday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1022 AM Thursday...Wave spectra show SE waves 3-4 ft every 7 seconds, 2-3 feet inshore. No significant changes made, but look for wave periods to increase to 9 seconds later today, easing steepness a little bit. Primary hazard remains sea fog and potential for reduced visibilities. As of 300 AM Thursday...Bermuda High pressure remains in control with warm and humid light southerly flow mainly 10 kts or so. This will once again produce areas of fog over the cooler shelf waters overnight. Have issued a Marine Weather Statement for patchy dense fog across the waters through the morning. Seas will remain right around 3 ft most waters. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Models indicate the re-positioning of the sfc ridge axis extending from the high`s center, slightly southward each day. This will result in a slight veering of the winds to a more southerly direction fri and a SSW-SW direction for Sat. The sfc pg will remain somewhat relaxed on Fri and begin to slightly tighten during Sat. Thus will go with around 10 kt speeds Fri and 10-15 kt for Sat. Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft or around 3 ft Fri into Sat. During this time, the ESE ground swell at 9+ second periods will dominate. For late Sat, 4 to 5 second period wind waves will begin to influence the sig. seas, resulting in 4 footers possible l ate Sat. Sea fog will be hit hardest on Fro of the 2 days. As winds veer to a SW direction, this will cut down on the fetch for the fog to develop. The local waters from Cape Fear south to Little River Inlet, this coastal configuration will see the best chance for the fog to reach the immediate coast. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Unseasonably well-defined Bermuda high pressure will maintain a south-southwesterly wind across the waters Sunday. The approach of a cold front from the west Sunday should accelerate winds to around 20 knots during the day. There`s at least a chance conditions could reach Small Craft Advisory criteria. The front should finally cross the area early Monday morning with a shift to northerly winds. Weak high pressure to our north is expected to push the front down into Florida Monday night.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...RGZ/MJC SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...TRA AVIATION...43

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