Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 200217 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1017 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL IN THE MIX THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS NOW PASSED WELL OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE ODD POP-UP SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: IN WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE OVERNIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD LET MINS DROP INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. BEACHES SHOULD HOLD AROUND 80 INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHARPEN TO MORE OF A TRUE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR OUR AREA. THIS DEVELOPS AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE. WITH THIS FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES AND OR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE MID LEVEL FLOW. THE NAM IN MY OPINION HAS ACTUALLY BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB WITH THESE SYSTEMS. FOR THIS PACKAGE I WILL MAINTAIN THE ISOLATED COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY LATE WHEN THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY COOLED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND I HAVE SHAVED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST. THURSDAYS VALUES LOOK ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS A SMATTERING OF VALUES THAT ECLIPSE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR WEDNESDAY BUT THE LONGEVITY NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE MARGINAL. THURSDAY LOOKS MORE LIKE AN ADVISORY DAY WITH HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...RIDGE BUILDS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WHILE A TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS IN A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND IT. THIS WILL LEAVE A NORTHERLY SFC FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS H5 HEIGHTS FALL AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY. TEMPS MAY DROP BELOW NORMAL AS YOU FACTOR IN CLOUDS AND PCP PRODUCED BY IMPULSES RIDING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL WILL EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE DEEP NW FLOW LIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PRODUCING MORE OF AN ON SHORE FLOW LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF SHORE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH AT THIS TIME AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN AND WARMER WEATHER. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 00Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO PATCH FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS TSRA AFFECTING THE KILM SITE ATTM...BUT AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD OFFSHORE...EXPECT REDUCED RESTRICTIONS TO IMPROVE JUST BEFORE 00Z. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG DEVELOPMENT/LOW CIGS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MORNING...ESPECIALLY INLAND. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...BUT WITH DRIER AIR INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN ELONGATED AND SKEWED PIEDMONT TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. A BRIEF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE. THE DIRECTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO SOUTHWEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TAKES OVER. BASICALLY WIND SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES LATER THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE W TO SW BUT WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTH LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TRANSITION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT SHOULD SEE A BIT OF NORTHERLY SURGE LATE SAT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS. LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN LOW END SEA HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO 2 FT WITH AFTN CHOP IN SEA BREEZE THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 2 TO 3 FT IN NORTHERLY SURGE LATE SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO MORE OF AN ON SHORE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KTS. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH SEAS UP AROUND 3 FT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SGL MARINE...MJC/REK/RGZ/SHK

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