Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 030631 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 230 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...RADAR LOOPS AND OBS SHOW IMPRESSIVE GUST FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM STORM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. EXPECT NO BIG IMPACTS...JUST A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. STILL POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO THE NORTH DROP INTO OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW: STORMS IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA HAS DEVELOPED A MASSED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH RALEIGH AND GREENVILLE AT THIS TIME. A SECOND CLUSTER OF STORMS FROM ASHEBORO TO LEXINGTON IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS SURPRISINGLY DEEP...THE RALEIGH RADAR SHOWS THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING UP TO AROUND 7000 FEET NEAR GREENVILLE WHICH IS DEEP ENOUGH TO LIFT PARCELS AT THE LFC. ODDS ARE STILL ABOUT 1-IN-4 TO 1-IN-5 CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN AND BURGAW. A SMALL (20%) POP IS BEING MAINTAINED HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS 70-75. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS... CLOSELY WATCHING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF NC SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE 500 MB COLD POOL CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA SHOULD NOT DIVE THIS FAR SOUTH...A SURPRISING NUMBER OF MODELS STILL SHOW SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA STARTING AROUND 3-4 AM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS WOULD NOT BE SURFACE- BASED CONVECTION BUT INSTEAD ROOTED IN A LAYER AROUND 7000 FEET UP. LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800-400 MB ARE STEEP ENOUGH THAT SHOULD ANYTHING SURVIVE THAT LATE IT COULD STILL HAVE THUNDER. TO BLEND WITH NWS RAH AND MHX I HAVE ADDED A 20 POP LATE TONIGHT FROM LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN TO BURGAW...OTHERWISE VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS IS SHOWN TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH ORIENTED NEARLY EAST- WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE H5 TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME DURING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EVOLVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE ATYPICALLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES NOT STAND OUT AS IT IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF EACH DAY. AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS COMPARED TO FRIDAY IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS UNSETTLED...BUT DEVOID OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOTED IN 500MB PROGS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SUNDAY RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWER PRESSURE LINGERING OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO JUST UNDER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY WHILE THE MINS REMAIN A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING SOME CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE VORT MAX DROPPING IN FROM VIRGINIA. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 10-11Z AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THIS IS MAINLY LEANING ON THE NAM MODEL AS THE GFS SHIFTS THE PRECIP OFFSHORE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. TOOK OUT THE TEMPO LOWER FOG AT LBT AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO MANY CLOUDS TO RADIATE EFFECTIVELY. THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND MAX HEATING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RESULTANT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...ABSOLUTELY NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS LATEST EVENING UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS... A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY. BASICALLY FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ON SHORE GUSTIER WINDS...BASICALLY SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS...SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR WATERS FOR A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 3 FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING MONDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RETURNING TO THE AREA. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT DURING MONDAY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...DL/REK

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