Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 310714 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Moisture associated with the remnants of Bonnie will be very slow to leave the area even as the actual system does by Wednesday. The weather may then turn even more unsettled by Friday and into the weekend as a cold front drops into the area and stalls. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Tuesday...A weak spin associated with the remnants of Bonnie has been observed occasionally just east of Winyah Bay. Offshore showers were trying to wrap around this feature and we expect some of this activity will be near or on the coast near daybreak. The weak circulation associated with the remnants of Bonnie will drift north and across the coastal waters and should be very near the Cape Fear area tonight. As heating gets underway this morning, instability will increase with mixed layer CAPE values increasing to near 1000-2000 J/kg. The greatest instability is expected to develop inland where breaks in the clouds should allow for greater heating. Deep tropical moisture will be in place and this combined with instability and modest lift from the remnants of Bonnie should result in scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorm activity. The main risk with this convection will be significant ponding of water in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Rainfall amounts should be highly variable across the area, but one-half to one inch of rain is most probable although higher amounts will be possible. As the instability wanes later this eve, the risk for thunderstorms will end and the coverage of showers should shrink. This may allow low stratus and fog to fill in overnight, especially in areas where significant rainfall occurs. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 80s...coolest near the coast. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to around 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Tuesday...The remnants of Bonnie may still be hanging around the the Cape Fear area into Wed as the steering flow remains weak. Atlantic ridging will build across the eastern Carolinas by Thu and this should guide the weak circulation further N and away from the area. A seabreeze is expected to develop on Wed. Low level convergence associated with this feature should allow for the development of showers and thunderstorms given the high moisture content of the air. Will still show chance pops throughout the area on Wed with likely up through the Cape Fear coast, in closest proximity to the remnants of Bonnie. A seabreeze circulation on Thu should prompt the development of more showers and some thunderstorms given a fair amount of instability and the lack of significant columnar drying. Will keep pops scattered on Thu. Expect the convection both days will shrink/wane during the night with the loss of heating. Low stratus/fog may redevelop Wed night. Highs both Wed and Thu will be in the upper 80s with lower to mid 80s at the coast due to seabreeze influences. Lows will be around 70.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 3 AM Tuesday... A cold front will drop into the central Carolinas on Friday and begin to stall. Mid level flow will be westerly and tend to provide some storm-inhibiting dry air but also possibly ample directional shear for storm cell organization as there appears to be moderate to strong instability. The front will remain overhead on Saturday and the mid level ridge appears to weaken. Saturday may thus end up a wetter day but with a diminished capacity for strong storms as widespread cloud cover dampens the diurnal temperature curve. Strong troughiness digging into the western Great Lake on Sunday could pull the front a bit to our north. This could slightly decrease storm coverage while increasing updraft intensity via stronger insolation. A cleaner passage of the front and possible legit airmass change may occur late Monday or Monday night.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 06Z...Remnants of Bonnie will continue to affect the area bringing low cigs, some fog, and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. As a result, varying flight restrictions of MVFR/IFR are expected. Latest radar imagery continues to depict isolated showers offshore. Some of thee showers may begin to spiral onto the coast, impacting the coastal terminals with a brief downpour. Otherwise, low cigs and brief patches of fog are expected through the overnight hours with the highest risk for ifr at klbt and kflo. The wind direction will be light and variable. After daybreak, expect intermittent improvements to flight restrictions as the area will see breaks in the clouds. However, daytime heating will allow for a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Northeast winds around 5 kt in the morning will become east-southeast in the afternoon, increasing up to around 10 kt. Extended Outlook...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected through Thursday as a tropical airmass remains in place. MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...The weak circulation center associated with the remnants of Bonnie will drift N across the coastal waters today with the weak entity near the Cape Fear waters tonight. The wind direction will be determined by this weak system with winds more onshore ahead of it and NW or N behind it. However, wind speeds will be light, 10 kt or less through tonight. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft, dominated by an ESE swell of 8 seconds. Expect scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...The remnants of Bonnie will be near the Cape Fear waters into Wed. Atlantic ridging is expected to build across the waters by Thu and this should help guide the weak circulation further NE. The seabreeze circulation will dictate wind direction and speed on Wed and Thu. Wind speeds will generally be 10 kt or less, around 10 kt Thu night. Swell energy is expected to wane slightly and this should result in 2 to 3 ft seas. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 AM Tuesday... A decelerating cold front will approach from the northwest on Friday. Southwesterly winds ahead of this boundary will likely have a tough time much exceeding 10 kt as the areas of high pressure on either side of the boundary are quite weak. The front appears to stall just inland from the coastline on Saturday. This will continue a similar wind field as seen on Friday. The temporal persistence of the fetch may add a few 3 ft waves to outer waters.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...mbb AVIATION...RJD/SGL

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