Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280539 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1239 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER OFFSHORE ALLOWING MILD AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SEVERAL WAVES ALONG THIS FRONT MAY BRING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. CLEARING AND COOLER WEDNESDAY AND NEW YEARS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS WEST OF THE REGION...BRINGING POTENTIALLY A WET WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 1239 AM SUNDAY...RADAR DETECTING LIGHT HIGH ALTITUDE ECHOES OVERSPREADING CENTRAL SC MOVING ENE IN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT...AND MOST OF THE RETURNS REMAIN VIRGA WITH A FEW TRACE REPORTS IN THE BUCKETS EMERGING ACROSS CENTRAL SC INTERIOR. THICKENING CLOUDS LOCALLY ANTICIPATED AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA FAR INTERIOR ZONES OF NE SC/SE NC AS THE VIRGA SLOWLY OVERCOMES AN OVERALL DRY COLUMN STILL RESIDING HERE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART AS CLOUD COVER BECOMES A CEILING...IMPLYING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR 2 OF CURRENT READINGS MOST LOCALS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...NO LESS THAN 4 DISTINCT FEATURES WORKING TOGETHER WILL CREATE AN UNSETTLED SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRIVEN BY A SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS LEAVES DEEP SW FLOW AND MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DEEP SW FLOW...2 SHORTWAVES...A WEAK ONE SUNDAY MORNING...AND A STRONGER IMPULSE MONDAY MORNING...WILL TRAVERSE OVERHEAD THE AREA. THE FORMER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME VERY LIGHT RAINFALL SUNDAY MORNING...FOCUSED MOSTLY ACROSS INLAND ZONES. A BREAK IN PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTN/EVE THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE...BEFORE RAIN RE-DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND /STRONGER/ SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE REFLECTION AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT BEHIND IT. AGAIN...TOTAL QPF LOOKS PRETTY LOW BUT AN AVERAGE OF ONE-QUARTER TO AS MUCH AS ONE-HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT...KEEPING UNSETTLED AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 60S THANKS TO WAA AND AFTN INSOLATION...AND LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL MUCH DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE CONTINUED WARM SW FLOW. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO DROP ONLY INTO THE MID 50S - VALUES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE-DECEMBER HIGHS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL STILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. A BIGGER DROP IN TEMPS IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO DEVELOPING CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST FAR NW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S WEATHER MAP WILL FEATURE AN UNUSUALLY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE NATION, IT`S CENTER OVER MONTANA. AT IT`S CORE IT IS A VERY CHILLY AIRMASS BUT WITH THE CAROLINAS ONLY ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A LITTLE BIT BELOW CLIMO. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THIS AIRMASS WILL BLEED SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. CONFLUENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL ALSO DRAW A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE MIDATLANTIC FROM THE PARENT HIGH. THIS SETS UP VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND ISOTHERMS ALIGN WITH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. RAD COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP TO MAKE WEDNESDAY COOLER THAN TUESDAY AS FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING OCCURS EACH DAY AND FAIRLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS EACH NIGHT. THINGS BECOME QUITE PROGRESSIVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AND MOISTURE RETURNING ALONG WITH IT. CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTH BE ON THE RISE. THE GFS HAS COASTAL TROUGHINESS AS WELL THAT WOULD IMPLY SOME MINOR RAIN CHANCES, BUT THIS FEATURE IS LARGELY ABSENT IN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN. WILL CAP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE/20S LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AND CIGS LOWER...BR APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A THREAT DESPITE THE CALM SFC WINDS. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS STILL HINT AT SCT MVFR STRATOCU DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME -RA TO THE INLAND TERMINALS. AVIATION IMPACTS WOULD BE LIMITED EVEN IF ANY PRECIP FALLS AT KFLO OR KLBT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT DURING THE DAY. THIS WIND TRAJECTORY...BRINGING WARM MOIST AIR OVER COOL SHELF WATERS...WOULD FAVOR SEA FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 00Z MON. GUIDANCE AND SREF OUTPUT ARE ALREADY PICKING UP ON REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. KMYR/KCRE WOULD LIKELY BE THE FIRST SITES AFFECTED AS POTENTIAL SEA FOG SPREADS UP THE S.C. COAST. THIS COULD RESULT IN IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR NOW...WILL ADVERTISE MVFR VSBYS WITH SCT IFR/LIFR STRATUS...MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING/ONSET OF DENSE FOG. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ON MON. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO TUE. VFR ON WED. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE COASTAL SITES ON THU. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1239 AM SUNDAY...SEAS 4.3 FEET AT 16 SECONDS AT FRYING PAN BUOY WITH LIGHT WIND SO MOSTLY SWELL IMPACTING THE WATERS FROM A PREVIOUS NORTH ATLANTIC STORM. INSHORE HEIGHTS 2 - 2.5 FEET AT BOTTOM FRICTION CONSUMES A PORTION OF THE INCOMING WAVE ENERGY. WINDS INSHORE SHOULD HOLD AT N-NE AT 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE SE 10 KT AS A WEAK INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH/LOW MIGRATES NNE ALONG OUR COAST. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIVE SW RETURN FLOW INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY EVENING. THIS CREATES TWO DISTINCT WIND REGIMES DURING THE SHORT TERM...SW AROUND 10 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...QUICKLY BECOMING NE AT 10-15 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING SUNDAY AFTN AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MOST OF THE NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY CENTERED OVER MONTANA, IT WILL BOTH BLEED SOUTH AND EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD AS TIME WEARS ON. THIS KEEPS WIND MORE OR LESS OUT OF THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY CRAWLS INTO THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MAY STILL BE BRINGING A NORTHERLY/OFFSHORE FLOW OR A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND TURN WINDS MORE EASTERLY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...8/BR

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