Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 062322 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 722 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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UPPER TROUGH WILL OPEN AND MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AS RIDGE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. THIS RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO CREATE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH CONTINUED TYPICAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... DEEP CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR FAILED TO DEVELOP TODAY. SHALLOWER EXTREMELY ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP BRIEFLY ALONG THE NC SEABREEZE AND AT THIS TIME OVER SC SEA BREEZE. PIEDMONT TROUGH ALSO SEEING SIMILARLY SCANT ACTIVITY. GIVEN THAT THE NORMAL DIURNAL PEAK IS UPON US AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY REAL FORCING LATER ON THIS IS PROBABLY IT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN INSISTING THAT THE SEABREEZE CONTINUES TO BE PRODUCTIVE BUT IS NOW FALLING A BIT BEHIND THE 8BALL IN BEING OVERDONE W ITS INITIALIZATION. EVEN SO...IT IS JULY IN THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND WE NEED A STRONGER CAP THAN THE PALTRY ONE IN THE CHS REFERENCED THIS MORNING TO BRING A COMPLETELY DRY DAY SO THE SMALL POPS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ALBEIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE DRY THOUGH WE COULD SEE A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT WHERE GULF STREAM CONVECTION AFFECTED THE VERY IMMEDIATE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE INCREASING TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE HIGHER THICKNESSES...BUT WILL HELP TO SOMEWHAT SUPPRESS CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD...LIKELY REMNANT ENERGY FROM THE MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY...AND THIS WILL HELP TO SUPPORT AND DRIVE AFTN CONVECTION ALONG THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BOUNDARIES. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS ON THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH...BUT MORE SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER MID-LEVELS WILL LIMIT TOTAL COVERAGE. CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY EACH DAY...BUT CONTINUED SW WINDS WILL KEEP MINS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 75 EACH NIGHT...FALLING FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S DURING THE AFTNS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE CLOSE OUT ON THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ILLUSTRATE A MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EXTENDING BACK AS FAR WEST AS TEXAS. WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS...FAIRLY DRY MID LEVELS...AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD...ALLOWING FOR A WEAK FRONT TO DROP SOUTH CLOSE TO THE AREA. THUS HAVE KEPT WITH INCREASED POPS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH INTO MONDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES AS IN ADDITION TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...TROPICAL LIKE ATMOSPHERE WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY IMPEDIMENTS TO AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE A LITTLE MVFR FOG INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT LIMITED COVERAGE DOESN`T WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT BY ABOUT 5 KTS AS A VERY WEAK LLJ DEVELOPS. EXPECTING NO WORSE THAN ABOUT THE 15 TO 20KT RANGE THUS PRECLUDING ANY ADVISORIES OR HEADLINES. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW ANY THRESHOLDS THOUGH THE BUMP IN SPEED COULD CHANGE A FEW ZONES` FORECAST FROM 3 TO 4 FT TO JUST A MAINLY 4 FT FCST AS THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WAVE HEIGHT GRADIENT DIMINISHES EVER SO SLIGHTLY. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND SW WINDS TO PERSIST IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION THIS PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 10-15 KTS...BUT SLIGHT INCREASES TO 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN/EVE DUE TO THE SHARPENING OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. SEAS OF 3-4 FT ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SW WIND WAVE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN THE SPECTRUM. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/ AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AS THE WATERS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL SEE CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS ON SATURDAY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE OF WAVE HEIGHTS...AS WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A 2 TO 4 FT RANGE WITH A BLEND OF WIND WAVES AND A LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS COMING INTO PLAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...SGL AVIATION...SHK

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