Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241921 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 321 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain warm and dry weather today. Hurricane Maria is expected to move northward a couple of hundred miles east of Cape Fear Monday through Wednesday. Hazardous boating conditions, strong rip currents, and high surf are all expected to develop. A cold front is expected to reach the area Friday, bringing cooler weather for next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1020 AM Sunday...Maria is far off the GA/FL coast with a large area of mid/upper ridging from the Great Lakes to New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. High level moisture is increasing across the area while the lower and middle levels remain dry. In fact the low-level moisture axis will remain offshore for a while longer given the trajectory. Overall, no POPs required with this update, and only cosmetic changes made to the wind and temperatures. High risk of rip currents continues along with the High Surf Advisory. Water levels at the downtown gauge should fall just short of minor coastal flood thresholds with the early afternoon high tide. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday... && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Sunday...This period will basically function off the indirect and possible direct effects generated by Hurricane Maria as she tracks northward during this week over the open waters of the Atlantic remaining well offshore from the U.S. mainland which includes the local FA. The exception is the Outer Banks of NC which will see Maria`s closest approach. Once the generally troffiness associated with Jose off the Mid-atlantic and New England coasts dissipates, modest to strong upper level ridging will take it`s place. This will slow Maria`s forward northward movement with models indicating her well offshore from Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras latitude by Wed morning. With this track, enough of it`s expansive pressure field and moisture will result in breezy NNE-NNW winds across the local area during this period with the hiest winds along the immediate coast, especially from Cape Fear northward. As for pcpn chances associated with Maria, locations across coastal southeast NC will be under a slight RW- chance beginning late Mon night thru Tue. The ILM SC CWA will remain pcpn free this period. With the mid-levels remaining quite dry thruout this period, the cirrus shield associated with Maria will encompass all of the ILM CWA. The lower levels will see a moisture increase across all locations, with the deeper low level moist profile across areas from Cape Fear northward. PCPN will be produced from the low level clouds and remain below 0.10 inches total thruout this period. Temperatures will continue to run at 1 to possibly 2 categories above the climo norms. The thick cirrus shield and eventual low level clouds will limit highs across the Cape Fear northward region, but still above climo. Beaches along the entire ILM CWA will be under a High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current threat for the majority of this period. This a result of 6 to 9 foot long period Maria swell affecting the local waters for an extended period of time.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 11Z...High pressure over the Great Lakes will maintain VFR conditions through the day. Deep northeasterly winds dry out quite a bit with height, so although there will be some scattered cumulus clouds developing this afternoon with bases around 4000 feet, a subsidence inversion should cap these clouds by 6000 feet with no potential of deeper growth. Breezy northeast winds should exceed 12 knots along the coast today, but models do not suggest enough wind energy within the 5000-foot mixed layer to support significant gusts. VFR conditions tonight could turn MVFR in the ILM vicinity late as low stratus 1000-1500 feet AGL developing across far-eastern North Carolina begins to slide southwestward. Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR in fog and stratus possible during the morning hours Monday, particularly near ILM. Brief MVFR conditions may develop at the coastal airports as Hurricane Maria brings isolated showers Tue-Wed as it moves N, with its center remaining well offshore. N winds may increase to 15 to 25 kt Monday Night through Wednesday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1020 AM Sunday...High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes continues to ridge southward while Maria moves northward. This pattern will maintain a northeasterly fetch that will increase across the coastal waters while large swells also increase in height and power through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect through all of the waters. The northeast fetch generated higher frequency wind waves will create steep conditions as they superimpose with Maria`s swells. SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...SCA conditions will continue across the area waters thruout this period. With the local waters on the westward side of Hurricane Maria as she tracks northward, remaining well offshore from the local area, wind directions will run from the NNE-N Mon night into Tue, and from the NNW-NW there-after as Maria`s eye moves north of the local latitude. The sfc pg associated with Maria, will be conducive to wind speeds in the 15 to 25 kt range south of Little River Inlet and 20 to 30 kt north of this Inlet. Could see Gale Gusts from Cape Fear northward thruout this period. Significant seas this period will be dominated by the 13-16 second period, ESE-SE Maria Swell. The short period locally produced NNE-NNW wind waves will create choppy conditions on top of this swell. This a result of a limited fetch. The area inlets to and from the Atlantic as well as the mouths of Cape Fear River and Winyah Bay will experience dangerous and hazardous navigating conditions. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Winds will shift to the northwest on Wednesday. Seas are expected to range from 5 to 9 feet north Cape Fear and drop down to 4 to 6 feet south of Cape Fear on Wednesday, subsiding on Thursday as Maria moves away from the area.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT Monday for SCZ054-056. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for SCZ054-056. NC...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT Monday for NCZ106-108-110. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ106-108-110. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...DRH AVIATION...TRA MARINE...

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