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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 241921
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
321 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain warm and dry weather today.
Hurricane Maria is expected to move northward a couple of
hundred miles east of Cape Fear Monday through Wednesday.
Hazardous boating conditions, strong rip currents, and high surf
are all expected to develop. A cold front is expected to reach
the area Friday, bringing cooler weather for next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1020 AM Sunday...Maria is far off the GA/FL coast with a large
area of mid/upper ridging from the Great Lakes to New England and
portions of the Mid-Atlantic. High level moisture is increasing
across the area while the lower and middle levels remain dry. In
fact the low-level moisture axis will remain offshore for a while
longer given the trajectory. Overall, no POPs required with this
update, and only cosmetic changes made to the wind and temperatures.
High risk of rip currents continues along with the High Surf
Advisory. Water levels at the downtown gauge should fall just short
of minor coastal flood thresholds with the early afternoon high
tide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 PM Sunday...This period will basically function off
the indirect and possible direct effects generated by Hurricane
Maria as she tracks northward during this week over the open
waters of the Atlantic remaining well offshore from the U.S.
mainland which includes the local FA. The exception is the Outer
Banks of NC which will see Maria`s closest approach.

Once the generally troffiness associated with Jose off the
Mid-atlantic and New England coasts dissipates, modest to strong
upper level ridging will take it`s place. This will slow Maria`s
forward northward movement with models indicating her well
offshore from Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras latitude by Wed
morning. With this track, enough of it`s expansive pressure
field and moisture will result in breezy NNE-NNW winds across
the local area during this period with the hiest winds along the
immediate coast, especially from Cape Fear northward.

As for pcpn chances associated with Maria, locations across
coastal southeast NC will be under a slight RW- chance beginning
late Mon night thru Tue. The ILM SC CWA will remain pcpn free
this period. With the mid-levels remaining quite dry thruout
this period, the cirrus shield associated with Maria will
encompass all of the ILM CWA. The lower levels will see a
moisture increase across all locations, with the deeper low
level moist profile across areas from Cape Fear northward. PCPN
will be produced from the low level clouds and remain below 0.10
inches total thruout this period. Temperatures will continue to
run at 1 to possibly 2 categories above the climo norms. The
thick cirrus shield and eventual low level clouds will limit
highs across the Cape Fear northward region, but still above
climo.

Beaches along the entire ILM CWA will be under a High Surf
Advisory and High Rip Current threat for the majority of this
period. This a result of 6 to 9 foot long period Maria swell
affecting the local waters for an extended period of time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 11Z...High pressure over the Great Lakes will maintain VFR
conditions through the day. Deep northeasterly winds dry out
quite a bit with height, so although there will be some
scattered cumulus clouds developing this afternoon with bases
around 4000 feet, a subsidence inversion should cap these clouds
by 6000 feet with no potential of deeper growth. Breezy
northeast winds should exceed 12 knots along the coast today,
but models do not suggest enough wind energy within the
5000-foot mixed layer to support significant gusts.

VFR conditions tonight could turn MVFR in the ILM vicinity late
as low stratus 1000-1500 feet AGL developing across far-eastern
North Carolina begins to slide southwestward.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR in fog and stratus possible during
the morning hours Monday, particularly near ILM. Brief MVFR
conditions may develop at the coastal airports as Hurricane
Maria brings isolated showers Tue-Wed as it moves N, with its
center remaining well offshore. N winds may increase to 15 to
25 kt Monday Night through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1020 AM Sunday...High pressure over the eastern Great
Lakes continues to ridge southward while Maria moves northward.
This pattern will maintain a northeasterly fetch that will
increase across the coastal waters while large swells also
increase in height and power through tonight. A Small Craft
Advisory will remain in effect through all of the waters. The
northeast fetch generated higher frequency wind waves will
create steep conditions as they superimpose with Maria`s
swells.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...SCA conditions will continue across the
area waters thruout this period. With the local waters on the
westward side of Hurricane Maria as she tracks northward,
remaining well offshore from the local area, wind directions
will run from the NNE-N Mon night into Tue, and from the NNW-NW
there-after as Maria`s eye moves north of the local latitude.
The sfc pg associated with Maria, will be conducive to wind
speeds in the 15 to 25 kt range south of Little River Inlet and
20 to 30 kt north of this Inlet. Could see Gale Gusts from Cape
Fear northward thruout this period.

Significant seas this period will be dominated by the 13-16
second period, ESE-SE Maria Swell. The short period locally
produced NNE-NNW wind waves will create choppy conditions on top
of this swell. This a result of a limited fetch. The area inlets
to and from the Atlantic as well as the mouths of Cape Fear
River and Winyah Bay will experience dangerous and hazardous
navigating conditions.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 300 PM Saturday...Winds will shift to the northwest on
Wednesday. Seas are expected to range from 5 to 9 feet north
Cape Fear and drop down to 4 to 6 feet south of Cape Fear on
Wednesday, subsiding on Thursday as Maria moves away from the
area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
SC...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT Monday for SCZ054-056.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for SCZ054-056.
NC...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT Monday for NCZ106-108-110.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ106-108-110.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DRH
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...