Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261757 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 115 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL BRING HIGHER SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. A LATE WEEK RETURN OF SEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1:15 PM TUESDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW UNDER MASSIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BEGINNING AROUND 3800FT HAS BROUGHT SOME SCATTERED SC ESP ALONG THE COAST WHERE ATLANTIC MOISTURE MOIRE PLENTIFUL. THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSIONS STRENGTH IS BETTER INDICATED BY THE DRYING RATHER THAN THE STRENGTH OF THE TEMP INVERSION ITSELF...DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ABOVE 600MB APPROACHING 50C. MOST AREAS WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS BUT STILL JUST ENOUGH WIND/LOW DEWPOINTS TO PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE FOG. NC COAST WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION FOR A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST SLATED FOR CAPE FEAR REGION. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS POOLED ALONG COASTAL NC BUT HIGHER WIND SPEEDS COMPARED TO INLAND TO SIMILARLY MITIGATE FOG CHANCES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...ONLY IMPACTS FROM CRISTOBAL FOR THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE INCREASED LONGER PERIOD SWELLS AFFECTING THE WATERS. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP ON WED AS GRADIENT RELAXES AS CRISTOBAL LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THURS AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY AROUND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH MID WEEK MAINTAINING PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. OVERALL SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURS AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE AND WINDS HAVE MORE OF A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. HIGHS UP BETWEEN 85 AND 90 MOST PLACES ON WED WILL REACH INTO THE 90S MOST AREAS ON THURS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S WED NIGHT WILL BE CLOSER TO 70 THURS NIGHT AS DEWPOINT TEMPS BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP IN A MOISTER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH LATE THURS. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA THURS BUT EXPECT IT TO BE HELD TO THE NORTH AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ANY PCP OUT OF THE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BROAD MID TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME MORE ELONGATED AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE COLUMN HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK UP CLOSER TO 2 INCHES SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHC OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MONDAY. OVERALL...THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE LOSES ITS GRIPS ON THE SOUTHEAST AND MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES A COLD FRONT EASTWARD BY TUES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...SOME BROKEN STRATOCU OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION...OTHERWISE VFR WITH SCATTERED SKIES. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO STAY WELL OFFSHORE WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE CAROLINAS OTHER THAN HIGHER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS. CRISTOBAL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW...A BIT WEAKER THAN TODAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS FRI. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1:15 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND WEAKEN BY ABOUT 2MB THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD A SMALL DECREASE IN GRADIENT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. UNTIL THEN HOWEVER THE POSITION OF THE HIGH PAIRED WITH THE WELL OFFSHORE HURRICANE CRISTOBAL YIELDING ADVISORY-WORTHY SEAS IN THE RESULTING NE FLOW. THIS IS NOT QUITE THE SWELL ENERGY FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM HOWEVER...THE MAIN SWELL FRONT IT PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS WNA SHOWS DOMINANT PERIOD JUMP FROM ABOUT 8-10 SECONDS TO 15 SECONDS IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME (CURRENTLY 41036 REPORTING 8 SECONDS). AT THIS TIME THE STORM WILL BE NOT ONLY MOVING QUICKLY TO THE N/NE BUT ALSO ACCELERATING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE DECREASING WIND WAVES AND THE INCREASING SWELL ENERGY...WHICH WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHADOWED BY CAPE FEAR FOR MOST OF THE BRUNSWICK WATERS. NO CHANGES IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT HAVE ONE MORE RUN OF SWAN TO LOOK AT SHORTLY. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TO 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CRISTOBAL PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS ALLOWING GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND THROUGH MID WEEK FROM NORTH ON WED TO WESTERLY BY THURS THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF SHORE BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. SEAS WILL DROP OFF FROM CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS EARLY WED MORNING DOWN TO 4 TO 5 FT WED NIGHT AND DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS BY THURS NIGHT. A LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONTRIBUTION TO SEA HEIGHTS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A RETURN FLOW AROUND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ON SHORE AND SPIKE UP A BIT EACH AFTN IN SEA BREEZE. OTHERWISE EXPECT SEAS 1 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43

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