Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 232339 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 739 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper low will move slowly away from the Carolinas tonight with a few showers and storms possible through nightfall. High pressure will build across the region on Tuesday...and then move offshore as a Bermuda high through the end of the week. This will bring above normal temperatures with ample sunshine through Friday. More unsettled weather is possible this coming weekend as a trough approaches the coast from the Bahamas. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 630 pm Monday...Will remove POPs by mid-evening. Waning insolation and resulting instability will be the demise of any additional convective development quickly after sunset. This trend already illustrated by a mosaic of 88ds across the Carolinas. The diurnal cu field will also dissipate, leaving a mostly clear or partly cloudy worse case from any altocu clouds as displayed by various model rh time heights for locations across the FA. See no need to tweak overnight temps at this time. Previous...................................................... As of 330 PM Monday...Widespread field of stratocu covering most of forecast area producing mostly cloudy skies...with only a few breaks of sunshine. Water vapor imagery still showing upper low digging down across NC with clouds and showers wrapping down around the back end toward the area. With such cool 500 mb temps down close to -25c this morning...the steep lapse rates helped with rapid cu development by late this morning. The clouds have slowed the rise in temps...basically reaching the mid 60s to around 70 most places. The southern extent of heavier showers was just north of local forecast area wrapping around the deep NW flow. Expect showers to be scattered mainly along northern portion of forecast area. Do not expect much coverage overall with best lift closer to the coast and farther north toward best energy wrapping around the upper low. The temps aloft will actually begin to warm through this evening with model soundings showing a spike right around h70 making it bit harder to get any deep convection. Another limiting factor will be the dry air and dewpoint temps right around 50. Will most likely need to tap into some higher dewpoint air from sea breeze front which will be almost non-existent due to off shore flow and cool air temps which were running close to the sea temps. The cool air aloft and low WBZ height will allow for any deeper shwrs/tstms to produce some small hail. SPC continues to show general thunder but has shrunken the area down to include only NC and north into mid atlantic states. As of 3 pm, lightning was limited from VA northward. Look for convection to build over NC and drop into our area from the N-NW and some localized development over SE NC and NE SC between 17z and 00z before a diminishing trend. Expect clearing with cool air in place for tonight leading to overnight lows in the 50s once again except along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Monday...A quiet mid week period with drying and warming trend as pesky upper low lifts off to the northeast and ridge builds in. Overall high pressure begins to dominate with center in the off shore waters of the southeast, north of bahamas. The light southerly return flow combined with rising h5 heights will allow for temps to soar into the 80s with plenty of May sunshine both days. Tuesday should see close to 30 degree temp rises after a cool start. By Wednesday, some locations may reach 90. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM Saturday...Very warm summertime conditions forecast for the end of the week and the weekend as Bermuda high spins offshore and mid-level ridging blossoms from the Gulf Coast...moves overhead...and expands across the southeast. This is a pattern that suggests above normal temperatures...but also increasing humidity on the SW return surface flow. However...the ridging aloft will keep the mid-level dry thanks to subsidence...so diurnal convection will be isolated at best...and other than Thursday thanks to a weak impulse moving overhead...the Thu-Sat timeframe will be dry with temps approaching 90 inland...low/mid 80s closer to the coast. Uncertainty increases for the weekend and into the Memorial Day holiday. The surface and mid-level ridge drift north as a weakness develops beneath it. Within this weakness a trough of low pressure is progged to move out of the Bahamas and drift slowly towards the southeast coast. The GFS has been incredibly consistent with this feature...despite large fluctuations in its position and intensity...while the ECM/CMC...which have been showing a weak trough...have jumped on board with a more significant system with the 12z suite today as well. GFS Ensembles are almost entirely in agreement with the op-run also. While it is far too early to mention any actual low pressure affecting the area...there is increasing confidence that deepening easterly flow connected to the tropics will create more unsettled weather this weekend and into Monday. Have trimmed highs a bit for Sun/Mon while also ramping up precip chances. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 00Z...Showers resulting from instability induced by dayime heating and the cool pool associated with the upper level low over the region are winding down as the sun sets. Outside of a little MVFR fog, mainly at inland terminals, conditions should be VFR through the valid TAF period. Light north to northwest winds tonight will become southwest at 5 to 10 KT during the day Tuesday. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 pm Monday...Looking at mainly offshore winds tonight. The sfc pg will remain relatively relaxed, yielding around 10 kt. Except 10 to 15 kt north of Cape Fear due to the effects from the departing upper low. Significant seas will run around 2 ft...except 2 to 3 ft from Cape Fear northward. Wind driven waves will remain a low input to the overall significant seas. Basically, a 1 to occasional 2 foot ese ground swell at 8 to 9 second periods will provide the sig. seas input. Previous........................................................ As of 330 PM Monday...Northwest, offshore flow and very weak sea breeze, if any, will produce fairly glassy seas in the near shore waters through tonight. The water temps were running near the air temps this aftn and therefore do not expect any chop. The only gusts you may experience would come from an isolated passing shower. Winds will begin to slowly shift around from NW to W overnight but will remain very light as high pressure begins to take hold. Overall expect benign seas under 3 ft. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Monday...Quiet marine conditions expected through mid week as high pressure takes residence over the off shore waters off the southeast coast. Overall expect a light southerly return flow to set up. Near shore seas will experience some chop in the afternoons due to a strong sea breeze setting up as temps warm well into the 80s...more typical May conditions. Seas will generally be 3 ft or less. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 PM Monday...S winds around Bermuda high pressure will be predominant Thu/Fri before winds back more to the E/SE late in the period. Gradient around the offshore high remains weak...so winds Thu/Fri will be 10 kts or less...and the combination of these light winds and a 2ft/8sec SE swell will drive wave heights of 1-2 ft Thu...2-3 ft Friday. Late Friday and Saturday confidence decreases as a wave of low pressure may emerge from the Bahamas and approach the waters. This will drive increasing easterly winds and wave heights building to 3-4 ft...possibly higher if a longer period swell develops. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RAN

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