Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 191712 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 111 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Jose will continue to lift off to the north leaving dry and warm weather across the area through much of the week. An increased rip current risk will linger along some beaches due to continued swells. Hurricane Maria is expected to track to the north offshore of the Carolinas during the middle of next week but uncertainty remains. Maria is a powerful hurricane, bringing increasingly strong rip currents and dangerous marine conditions to the area late this week through at least early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM Tuesday...One last band of low clouds rotating into Pender and New Hanover counties around the large gyre that is hurricane Jose. This 1.5kft layer of stratocumulus should mix out with some additional heating leaving a sunny day area-wide. Jose`s local effects will continue to be confined to beach/marine environment. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...A broad and amorphous high pressure pattern will hold over eastern CONUS as distant Hurricane Jose spins and circles offshore New England. With subsidence in the wake of Jose fading, an increasingly unstable and moistening column will allow for the re-introduction of POPs to the short term. Expect at least isolated diurnally focused convection for both Wednesday and Thursday, although a couple of hard to time upper disturbances may extend POPs into the evening hours. A warming trend will make for above-average temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s both days, and lows in the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1200 PM Monday...Persistent high pressure will be reinforced from the north Fri and Sat. Did include a small risk for a shower or thunderstorm Thu, before high pressure strengthens across the area. Did include a small risk for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm along the seabreeze Sat and Sun. Monday`s forecast will hinge to a large degree on the track and strength of powerful Hurricane Maria and we will be watching the tropics especially closely. Tropical cyclone Jose or its remnants will be virtually stalled SE of New England late in the week and may actually begin to drift S Fri and through the weekend. Hurricane Maria is expected to be a powerful hurricane as she approaches during the weekend. Her forerunner swell energy will begin to be felt on the Carolina beaches late week which will increase the breaking wave heights and rip current risk. A high risk for rip currents is likely this weekend and early next week. Much too early to have any confidence in a track forecast for Maria as she approaches the southeast coast. Some of the models continue to show interaction between Maria and Jose early next week and Jose may play a part in the path Maria ultimately takes as she gains latitude and approaches the U.S. east coast. Highs will be in the mid and upper 80s Thu and Fri and lower to mid 80s thereafter. Lows will be mainly in the 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 18Z...VFR through the period with N winds that will turn to NW or go light and variable overnight. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions through the period are expected with the exception of a few hours of early morning low clouds or fog most mornings through the period. The highest risk of IFR conditions will be in the 0900-1200Z timeframe each morning.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM Tuesday...The distant and departing Jose is still the marine weather-maker for the marine environment. Winds remain out of the NNW and dominant wave periods are quite high (12-13 seconds at 41013) though the overall heights have fallen to where no headlines are needed. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Distant Jose`s influence will be be quite minimal during the Short Term. Broad and ill-defined high pressure over the waters will keep winds in the 10 kt range, with seas of 2 to 4 ft through the period. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1200 PM Monday...The risk for Small Craft Advisory seas is increasing this weekend. Weak high pressure will prevail through the period but will become better established from the north late week. Long period swell, the forerunners of powerful Hurricane Maria, will begin to reach our waters during this time. The swell energy looks to become significant Fri and Sat. The swell direction will be from the SE. Guidance is showing periods of around 15 seconds at Frying Pan Shoals with wave heights increasing from 4 to 5 ft Fri to 6 to 7 ft Sat. The swell will further increase Sun and Mon which will result in higher wave heights. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 300 AM Tuesday...The lower Cape Fear will continue to see high astronomical tides again with high tides today. A Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for water levels almost a half foot above the advisory threshold for downtown Wilmington. Minor flooding will occur around the times of high tide within an hour or so of 930 am and again around 1030 pm tonight downtown, and more coastal flood advisories are likely according to tidal predictions through at least the first day of Fall. This year the Autumnal Equinox occurs on September 22nd at 2002Z. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...mbb SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RJD AVIATION...MBB

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