Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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824 FXUS62 KILM 082231 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 533 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cold high pressure will build across the area tonight through the weekend, ushering in the coldest temperatures of the season. A warming trend will follow early next week ahead of the next cold front. Expect seasonable and dry weather Tuesday as high pressure builds in behind front. Another frontal system will affect the area during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 PM Thursday...Much colder air will advance into the area in the wake of a cold front. Clouds associated with the cold surge and channeled mid-level vorticity associated with a minor short-wave are expected to persist into the evening before clearing occurs overnight. Can`t rule out a few sprinkles with little to no QPF through the remainder of the afternoon, and possibly early evening along the coast. Cold air advection will weaken overnight but will still yield mins at or just below freezing inland to the lower to mid 30s at the coastal locations. Colder temperatures are on tap heading into the short term period. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Thursday...Arctic high pressure will build into the Eastern United States settling across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas during Saturday bringing much colder, below normal temperatures to the area. In fact, during late Friday night into early Saturday morning lows are expected to range from the lower 20s inland to the mid 20s at the coast. These min temperatures are several categories below normal (37 at ILM/CRE, 36 at FLO, and 33 at LBT). Otherwise, zonal flow aloft each day will help to maintain a dry column. Blend of MAV/MET number appears reasonable. A little better radiational cooling appears likely late Saturday night and have undercut guidance at that time as a result. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM Thursday...Boundary and surface temperatures progged to recover some 10-12 degrees F on Sunday as the wedge weakens beneath strong low level warm advection. Increased cloud cover resulting from the upglide will temper the warmth slightly but Monday will benefit from a much warmer start and should actually turn out warmer than climatology. Rain chances associated with coastal trough Sunday into Sunday night will continued to be carried but capped low as they are likely a case of over aggressive moistening by guidance, a seemingly common error. Rain chances should max out Monday as a cold front moves through, though the lack of deep layer veering should keep QPF prospects minimized as it prevents the mid levels from moistening. After a dry and fairly seasonable Tuesday we may be looking at another Arctic cold front on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 00Z...High pressure is building in with cold air advection ongoing. Some mid and high clouds from the jet stream will linger. Look for dewpoints to drop into the 20s overnight. Winds will not be too gusty, but will stay above 7 kts. Winds will become gusty a couple of hours after sunrise on Friday with nearly clear skies. Extended Outlook...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 PM EST Thursday...Surge across the coastal waters will allow for strengthening offshore oriented winds and building seas tonight. The Small Craft Advisory will remain in place and carry into the short term period. The offshore direction of the wind will result in a larger range of seas tonight given fetch limitations. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Thursday...Gusty winds will persist into Friday morning, then as the ridge builds farther east conditions will gradually improve Friday night, and especially during Saturday. A weak coastal trough may develop late in the period with northeast winds returning again on the landward side of the boundary. Seas will be highest Friday morning, especially away from the coast then average less than 3 ft by Saturday and Saturday night. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As OF 3 AM Thursday...Winds initially out of the SE on Sunday with a weak coastal trough in place. Late in the day into Sunday night this feature washes out and a SSW flow gets established and strengthens some. A few 5 ft seas may materialize well away from shore but the coast-parallel fetch may preclude headlines since most of the area sees smaller waves. Monday`s forecast rather uncertain as models are in poor agreement in timing the next front. The slower and slightly favored solutions would allow for a moderately strong prefrontal SW flow that would likely require an advisory. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SRP NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43

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