Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 232333 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 732 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL INCREASE THE HUMIDITY LEVELS OVER THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BEGINNING BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE THE H5 RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST BACK TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. OVERALL THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE COLUMN. ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP MINS WARMER THAN THE INTERIOR AREAS SINCE SSTS ARE NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE EVENING ISSUANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 253 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE 12 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL IN HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE SURFACE PATTERN. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY MORNING AND ITS AXIS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW DURING THIS TIME. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW SUIT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S INLAND TO NEAR 80 ON THE BEACHES ON SUNDAY AND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S AT THE COAST AND BY TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WITH A PREDOMINATE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THE INCREASE IN THE RIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 253 PM SATURDAY...THE MAIN EMPHASIS FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON THE PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE MOVES OR CHANGES LITTLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE OR JUST A LITTLE ABOVE. THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING THE RIDGE GETTING WORKED OVER A BIT MORE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY VIA A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE 00UTC ECMWF CONTINUED TO SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE SO A BLEND APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS FOR THESE DAYS WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINS STABLE...NOT SURPRISING AS THE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH A METHODICAL RISE IN DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOW THE SAME CONSISTENCY WITH MOSTLY MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY DUE TO PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT E-SE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT KFLO/KLBT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP. APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BRISK ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT INLAND TERMINALS THE POSSIBILITIES ARE HIGHER. STILL MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS...BUT CANT DISCOUNT A BRIEF BOUT OF MVFR/IFR IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT KFLO/KLBT. VFR SUNDAY AFTER SUNRISE WITH SCT CU/SC AROUND 5K. WINDS WILL BE E IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND BECOMING GUSTY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. EASTERLY FETCH IS SUPPORTING 3-4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WHILE THEY ARE CLOSER TO 2 FT INSHORE. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 253 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ITS CENTER TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL PRODUCE A PREDOMINATELY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 253 PM SATURDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A MODEST CHANGE IN THE GFS MOSTLY AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH MORE CONVECTION INLAND. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...WHICH GENERALLY ACCOMPANIES THIS CONVECTION IS NOTABLY ABSENT...THUS NO IMPACT ON THE WINDS OR SEAS. CONTINUE TO EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 1-3 FEET. SOME FOUR FOOTERS COULD MEANDER INTO THE OUTER WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...HAWKINS LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MRR

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