Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 300521 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 121 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST NEXT WEEK...INCREASING LOCAL RAIN CHANCES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 115 AM SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY MORNING NEAR-TERM UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS... ONCE AGAIN UPDATED POPS AND SKIES ACROSS THE ILM CWA...VIA LATEST KLTX 88D AND SAT IMAGERY TRENDS...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DISSIPATING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT OCCURRED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHED INLAND EARLIER THIS EVENING. DO NOT THINK ENOUGH MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS PUSHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TO WARRANT AREAS/WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT FOG. HOWEVER...ENOUGH RECOVERY OF ...SFC...DEWPOINTS TO WELL IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW AT-LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ONCE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE OR DROP TO NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS. MOISTURE DEPTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS REMAINS SUSPECT FOR ANY OF THE SHRA THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS TO MOVE ONSHORE. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 214 PM FRIDAY...A FAIR WEATHER LABOR WEEKEND ON TAP WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO ACCOMPANY AN OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE RETURN TO POP A FEW SHOWERS OR A STORM BRIEFLY ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG AND NEAR THE SEA BREEZE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...WITH CHANCES LOOKING SLIGHTLY BETTER SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS PRESENTLY ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOT ADVECTING MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE SEA AND MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR. PATCHES OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR COOL POCKETS OR PROTECTED COASTAL LOCATIONS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY WITH NO FOG ISSUES TO START SAT. MAXIMUMS SAT/SUN LOW/MID 90S WEST OF I-95 AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FARTHER EAST...MINIMUMS SUN/MON MORNING GENERALLY 70-76 AND MILDEST NEAR THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 214 PM FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIP FARTHER SOUTH AS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING AS A VERY BROAD RIDGE TAKES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A VERY BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS PIEDMONT TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE THROUGH THE ALMOST ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY ENHANCING CONVECTION MON AFTN AND A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL CARRY THESE SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD THE COAST. THE PCP WATER REACHES UP ABOVE 2 INCHES MON NIGHT INTO TUES AFTN. A DEEPER DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN BEHIND SHORTWAVE LATE TUES WITH PCP WATER VALUES DROPPING TO 1.75 INCHES. OVERALL WILL SEE A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY SOME PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT...ESPECIALLY MON INTO TUES. DEWPOINT TEMPS UP ABOVE 70 WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 90 ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE MID 90S INLAND. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z SATURDAY...EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW YESTERDAY. SREF PROBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR WILL BE INLAND AT KLBT AND KFLO...LIKELY IN THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME. HAVE ALSO ADDED TEMPO IFR FOR KCRE AS SOME FOG/STRATUS IS EXPECTED HERE ONCE THE WINDS GO CALM. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KILM/KMYR... THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AROUND DAYBREAK CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13-14Z TODAY. THEN VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. SLIGHT CHC OF ISOLATED SHRA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DOES NOT WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 115 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. HOWEVER...THE PROBLEM CHILD OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED NOCTURNAL -SHRA MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM OFFSHORE WITHIN THE LIGHT SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. CURRENTLY...NO POPS ARE INDICATED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. VIA LATEST KLTX 88D RADAR TRENDS...THE -SHRA THAT DOES DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE...CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...AND DISSIPATING PRIOR TO EVEN REACHING THE ILM COASTAL WATERS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 214 PM FRIDAY...A GOOD WEEKEND ON THE WATERS WEATHER-WISE AS MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET IN AN EVOLVING AND BUILDING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN. SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT SAT WILL BECOME S 10 TO 15 KT SUNDAY...WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORMING INLAND TO SHARPEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY. SEAS 2 - 2.5 FT EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 2 FT AT 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 1 FOOT EVERY 4 SECONDS. ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND FAVORED LATE NIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY MORNING. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 214 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFF SHORE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTN. THE WEAK SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL KEEP SEAS 1 TO 3 FT WITH A SLIGHT CHOP EACH AFTN.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...DCH/DRH/TRA SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...BJR/TRA

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