Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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427 FXUS62 KILM 230141 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 841 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper disturbance will bring a heavy rainfall threat this evening. Monday and Tuesday will be breezy but mild in the wake of this system. A cold front Thursday will bring slight rain chances and usher in some more seasonable weather over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 840 PM Sunday...Risk for severe weather has greatly diminished for the remainder of the near term. Have updated forecast accordingly. Risk for severe weather has not completely ended however, so will continue to monitor until precip moves offshore in the early morning hours. Previous discussion from earlier this afternoon follows: Primary focus is pending severe weather potential. The storms on radar moving into NE SC are not the main players, but farther upstream organizing from the FL panhandle into southern GA. This activity will undergo/sustain squall like organization into NE SC around 7 PM and across SE NC 10-11 PM, then off the coast around or just after midnight. 50 KT winds at 925 MB may readily be brought to the surface by a TSTM during squall passage, enhanced by outflow winds, raising the odds of straight-line damaging winds. 0-3 KM helicity fields migrate across the area 00-04z. This will overlap with elevated boundary layer instability, upping the prospects of isolated tornadoes as well. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Sunday...No significant hazards this period but showers can be expected Monday as column instability beneath a cold pool aloft remains high. As the nearly stacked low pulls away, low-level winds will shift to WNW with strong mid-level drying into Tuesday. Partial sun later on Monday will be followed by more sunshine minutes Tuesday with maximums in the 60s both days. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Sunday...Upper level ridge axis moves offshore on Wednesday yielding deep layer SW to WSW flow. Expecting a mostly sunny and unseasonably warm afternoon. Cold front comes through late Wednesday night driven by very low amplitude and confluent upper system keeping rain chances minimal. Cold air advection Thursday is weak initially allowing for highs in the low to mid 60s early before temperatures possibly start a non-diurnal decline. The remainder of the period will bring cool and dry advection. The southern branch of the upper jet splits off and gets hung up as a positively tilted trough over the SWrn U.S. The northern branch will end up a broad and positively tilted trough over the Eastern U.S. Daytime highs will be stuck below climatology in the cold advection regime whereas breezy well-mixed nights will be seasonably cool. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 00Z...High confidence of at least OCNL MVFR/IFR cigs through much of the next 12 hours or so as clusters of showers and thunderstorms move into the area from the south and west. There is some potential for severe thunderstorms with wind gusts approaching 50 KT between 02z and 05z but relatively stable air over the area attm may limit this potential. After main bulk of showers and storms move through, conditions should gradually improve such that VFR will be the predominant condition after 12Z. However, there is a small chance for MVFR conditions in showers through the remainder of the period though that potential is too small for inclusion in the terminals attm. Biggest question this forecast period is winds as we are expecting a shift to the south tonight as a frontal boundary lifts northward. The timing of this shift reflected in the TAFs is low but winds should be S to SW by 12Z before becoming westerly late in the period. Extended outlook...Expect mainly VFR, except for possible MVFR/IFR during Mon from clouds and reduced vsby from pcpn. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 840 PM Sunday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: SSE-SSW winds will ramp up tonight with gusts of up to 30 KT. Seas will respond, building to 5-9 feet in the 0-20 NM waters. Severe TSTMS overnight will be capable of producing localized gusts up to 60 KT. It will be dangerous on the waters tonight and navigation even on the ICW will be dangerous and highly discouraged. SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Sunday...Rough conditions expected on the waters this period as strong SW and W winds prevail so Advisory flags will fly both Monday and much of Tuesday. Offshore wave heights will be notably higher than inshore as winds tend more from the west. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 PM Sunday...Coast-parallel southwesterly flow on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Though the winds will increase to the 15 to 20kt range any headline or advisory-worthy seas will remain outside of the 20nm forecast zone. With the approach of the boundary Wed night into Thursday we may add some gustiness and possibly introduce some 5 ft waves. A sharp late morning veer to NW Thursday will give way to abating wind speeds. Wave faces will steepen and a cautionary headline may be appropriate for a narrow span of time. A broad and weakening band of NW flow will be found across the eastern U.S on Friday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...RGZ MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB

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