Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281712 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 112 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The risk for showers and an isolated strong thunderstorm will occur this afternoon ahead of a cold front which will move through late tonight. Relatively cooler and drier high pressure will build in from the north late Wednesday into Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected as warmer and more humid air returns Friday ahead of a cold front which will move offshore early Saturday. Some of the thunderstorms may be strong to severe Friday and Friday night. The weekend should be dry as high pressure takes hold. Then early next week, a southern stream system will again bring the risk for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 945 AM Tuesday...Convection is occurring ahead of a short wave this morning over Bladen and Columbus counties and this will continue to shift off the coast. For the afternoon and second short-wave trough will push across the area with the best chances over southeast North Carolina and Darlington, Dillon. The morning soundings are showing surface base CAPES of 1200 to 1400 J/kg with wet-bulb zero ranging between 9000 ft in the north and 11000 ft to the south. With partial clearing for the afternoon this may help enhance a chance of thunderstorms to develop again tonight. ...previous discussion... Southerly winds will veer slowly to the SW and become gusty through the day before shifting to the W by Tues evening as trough moves through. Expect plenty of clouds through the day but some breaks or brightening will allow temps to reach up toward 80 most places. The increasing SW flow will fight against inland movement of sea breeze and therefore the stable air behind sea breeze will remain pinned closer to the coast. Overall expect increasing westerly flow aloft and drier air to put an end to convection across the area by late aftn with some lingering clouds into the evening. Pcp water values up around 1.4 inches in the aftn will drop under an inch by midnight as winds from the sfc up through the mid levels become westerly and eventually northwest overnight. Clearing should take place overnight although some residual low level moisture will remain into the morning. Temperatures will drop off slowly as the cold front will not actually make it through until the early morning hours on Wed. Low temps should be in the mid 50s most places. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Cold front will be offshore Wed morning. Strong high pressure centered across eastern Canada will begin to ridge south across the Carolinas later Wed and Wed night. A wedge will develop Wed night and persist into Thu before the ridge begins to weaken and shift offshore Thu night. Dry weather Wed into Thu as partial sunshine returns. A potent southern stream system will approach from the W Thu night. Clouds will be on the increase later Thu and especially Thu night. The system has slowed down some, but will continue to advertise a slight chance/small chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly overnight Thu with the lowest risk across the Cape Fear area and the highest across the I-95 corridor and westward. The cool air Will be slow to arrive and so highs on Wed should still be well above normal, upper 70s to lower 80s with marine influences keeping the coastal communities in the lower to mid 70s. Highs Thu will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with perhaps some mid 70s across portions of the Pee Dee. Lows will be mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Next in series of potent southern stream systems will impact the eastern Carolinas Fri and Fri night with a categorical risk for showers and thunderstorms developing. The combination of significant upper level support and strong and deep moisture return and lift provides at least the opportunity for a more widespread and significant rainfall event. There will be some risk for strong to severe thunderstorms during this time. 0-6 km effective bulk shear parameters are not particularly impressive. However, instability does grow with mixed layer CAPE values on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg as the warm front should move to our N. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be rather modest. The potential is there for an active day/night leading into the weekend, although magnitude is certainly still a question mark. In the wake of this system, dry weather and near to above normal temps are expected for the weekend as mid-level ridging builds across the area and surface high pressure builds from the NW and N. Attention then will turn westward as next southern stream system along the Gulf Coast Sun night lifts to the NE and drags a warm front to the N. This will again bring deep moisture into the Carolinas, and with that, showers and thunderstorms early next week. Given timing differences between long range models and a general slower trend as compared to 24 hours ago, will cap POPs in the chance category until we can gain better resolution as to when the highest risk for showers and thunderstorms will occur. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 18Z...The first batch of convection has shifted off the coast. The TAF sites are now VFR but with a second shortwave crossing the area by late afternoon there is a chance of convection developing and some of these thunderstorms may contain hail and gusty winds. At this time with the coverage being generally less than 30% will include VCTS for KFLO, KILM, and KLBT. Chances are slightly less for KCRE and KMYR. Southwest winds are expected to veer to the the northwest and north with a cold frontal passage after 06 UTC. VFR conditions are expected after 06 UTC. Extended outlook...Flight restrictions are likely in showers and thunderstorms Fri/Fri night and thunderstorms may contain strong wind gusts. VFR conditions are expected Saturday and Sunday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM Tuesday...SW SW winds 10 to 15 kt continue at Frying Pan Shoals and 10 knots at the piers. Winds will increase as the pressure gradient tightens as the cold front approaches from overnight. Seas will increase to 3 to 5 feet north of Little River and 2 to 4 feet to the south. A longer period SE swell will continue to reach our local waters from a rather deep low pressure system well offshore from the SE U.S. Coast forecast to move northeast, further away from the U.S. mainland. Boaters navigating to and from area inlets on Tue could encounter rough wave conditions especially during an outgoing tide combined with the incoming 10+ second period swell. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Cold front should be offshore at the start of the period. Strong high pressure across eastern Canada will build south and eventually wedge across the Carolinas Wed night and Thu. The strong ridge should then move offshore Thu night. N winds Wed morning will veer to NE. NE winds Wed night and Thu will then veer to SE Thu night. Sustained wind speeds will increase to 15 to 20 kt Wed night and remain in that range through the end of the forecast period. Seas will build to 3 to 5 ft by Wed night and then remain in that range for much of Thu before perhaps subsiding about a foot Thu night. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...A Small Craft Advisory is likely for all waters Fri and Fri night with conditions possibly lingering into Sat. Slow moving area of low pressure will be moving across the Ohio Valley Fri. Its accompanying warm front will move across the waters Fri. As low pressure moves offshore of the Mid-Atlantic states late Fri night and Sat morning, it will strengthen and drag a cold front across the waters. High pressure will slowly build across the area from the N and NW Sat night and Sun. SE winds Fri morning will become S and then SW Fri night. The wind direction will become westerly early Sat morning and then NW by Sat afternoon. N winds Sat night will become NE overnight Sat with NE winds persisting into Sun before veering to easterly during the afternoon. The strongest winds are expected Fri and Fri night, up to 20 to 25 kt. Seas late Fri and Fri night will build to 4 to 7 ft and around 8 ft at frying Pan Shoals. Seas during Sat will only slowly subside as backswell from departing storm system impacts the waters. Seas should drop below advisory levels by late Sat and to 2 to 4 ft on Sun. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...RJD AVIATION...DRH

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