Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 110015 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 815 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BECOME ILL- DEFINED BY THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES REMAIN IN THE WATCH...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE RECOVERY OF THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER BEING WORKED OVER WITH CONVECTION EARLY TODAY. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SVR POTENTIAL WILL ACTUALLY REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF LOCAL AREA BUT AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...HEIGHT FALLS AND BETTER JET DYNAMICS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER STORMS OVER LOCAL AREA. VERY MOISTURE RICH AIR LIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PCP WATER VALUES UP CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. MU CAPE VALUES REACH UP AROUND 2000 J/KG. LAPSE RATES REMAIN FAIRLY NEUTRAL WITH LESS OVERALL HEATING IN MOST PLACES LIMITING THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL BUT CLOUD FREE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP HELPING TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE. THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BUT LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION THIS MORNING ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL HELP TO INITIATE STORMS. WITH A STORM MOTION OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH...SOME TRAINING OF CELLS COULD PRODUCE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CELL MOTION WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...THE STORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TIME AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES FRONT SLOWLY EAST. CLOUDS AND PCP WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING AS HIGH AS PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGHS OF 85 TO 90 MOST PLACES...BUT SOME SPOTS EXPERIENCING GREATER SUN WILL END UP INTO THE 90S ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS HIGHER ONCE AGAIN...REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST PLACES. THE COLD FRONT WILL HANG OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION...SIMILAR TO TODAY...MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF COLLIDING BOUNDARIES AND STORM INTERACTION. ALOFT...SHEAR LINE DEMARCATING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING OVERHEAD AND NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...WHILE 300MB 100KT JET MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING THE CAROLINAS WITHIN THE FAVORABLE RFQ DIFLUENT REGION...IN A SETUP THAT RESEMBLES QUITE WELL A MADDOX-TYPE EVENT FROM LITERATURE FOR HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UP NEAR 2 INCHES AND STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW. PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY LEAD TO STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH LOW-LYING AND URBAN AREAS ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE. WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRI INTO FRI EVE. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE MID-LEVELS AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY AND THIS WILL HELP TO BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF ON SAT AS RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BECOME ILL-DEFINED AS A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WORKS INLAND. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LESS ON SAT AS COMPARED TO FRI...WILL DROP POPS INTO THE SCATTERED CATEGORY FOR SAT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE RIDGES BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE A RELATIVELY DRY COLUMN ON SUNDAY...SO ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED...LIKELY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL LY NORMAL. WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING...TEMPS SUNDAY WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE VALUES. THEREAFTER...HEAT WILL SLOWLY BUILD AGAIN THROUGH TUESDAY THANKS TO SUBTLE THICKNESS INCREASE DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND CONTINUED RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS DRIVES MORE TYPICAL CONVECTION CHANCES MONDAY/TUESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AND AREAS FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ATTM AFFECTING A MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL/LOW CIGS CREATING MVFR/IFR. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING COVERAGE. COULD SEE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED...POSSIBLY CREATING MVFR/IFR DUE. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PERSIST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AOB 10 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY CONVECTION. ON FRIDAY...ANTICIPATE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE INLAND SITES AT ONE POINT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORM. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SHRA/TSRA ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WELL INLAND. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT MOST WATERS. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH ON FRI. EXPECT WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST SAT...BEFORE THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AND WINDS VEER TO E AND SE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WKND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SW WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING 15-20 KTS LATE MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE RISING WINDS AND AN AMPLIFYING GROUND SWELL WILL DRIVE SEAS UP FROM 2-3 FT SUNDAY...TO 3-5 FT MONDAY...AND CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...SGL

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