Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 290726 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 326 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BUILDS WEST AND BRINGS A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST COAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 8:30 PM MONDAY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED FOR THE EVENING AS THE LAST OF THE DAYS CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE GEORGETOWN AND HORRY COUNTIES. EXPECT TO CLEAR THESE LAST TWO REMAINING COUNTIES FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH SHORTLY. THE ANTICIPATED UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FOLLOWING. BIG CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM RECENTLY EXPERIENCED...WITH MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...DEEP DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA MAINTAINS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WED WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES THU. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY. HIGHS CLOSE TO WATER TEMPS WILL PREVENT ANY REAL SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING DESPITE WEAK WIND FIELD. WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WED...THOUGH FILTERED THROUGH INCREASING CIRRUS SHIELD LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS EASTERLY WINDS SETUP. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THESE...ESPECIALLY WITH MOS POP IN THE SINGLE DIGIT RANGE...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN MID LEVEL TROUGHING KEEPS HIGHS BELOW CLIMO...MID 80S. LOWS BELOW CLIMO ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT...MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WED INTO THU WILL CAUSE THE 5H TROUGH TO DIG DURING THU. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS A RESULT COMMENCING A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE AS FAR AS MEASURABLE PRECIP IS CONCERNED FOR THU...BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SC COUNTIES LATE THU NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THU WITH SKIES ULTIMATELY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUD THU NIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOWS A BIT WARMER. MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW CLIMO BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EXPANDING WESTERN ATLANTIC 5H RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE AND PERIODIC SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH INTO NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE THE REMAINS OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF WEAK SUB TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AT SOME POINT...BUT WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUN THE FEATURE BECOMES WEAKER/MORE DIFFUSE. NOT READY TO COUNT ON IT YET BUT DO THINK THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE COVERAGE SAT/SUN. WILL BUMP WEEKEND POP TO HIGH CHC WHILE MAINTAINING LOW/MID CHC POP FRI/MON. CLOUD COVER AND [PRECIP ALONG WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO AIDED BY CLOUD COVER.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...FRONT HAS DROPPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE STRONG CONVECTION NOW WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY ON. LOOKING AT FAIR WEATHER SC/CU DURING THE DAY TUE...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUE TO PUMP ACROSS THE REGION UNDER NW-NE FLOW. THE COASTAL TERMS MAY VEER TO THE E BRIEFLY THIS AFTN. SPEEDS AT 5 TO 15 KT...DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 KT AFTER SUNSET TUE. OVERALL... LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THRUOUT THE 06Z ISSUANCE PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR DUE TO MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 8:30 PM MONDAY...VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS AMZ 254 AT THIS TIME...BUT THEY WILL CLEAR THE WATERS TO THE EAST WITHIN THE HOURS. UPDATING THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING FOR 15-20 KT SW WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS. AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE COAST...THE WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERALL BUT THE TSTM THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO GET A FIX ON RADAR EVEN IF HEADING OUT ON THE ICW. SEAS A MIX OF S WAVES 3-4 FT AT 5-6 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-2 FT AT 8-9 SECONDS. SEAS WILL LESSEN TO 2-4 FT AND A WINDSHIFT TO THE NW AT 15 KT LOOKS TO OCCUR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK OVER THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE WATERS WILL DRIFT EAST WED INTO THU. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LAND/WATER RULES OUT A SEA BREEZE EITHER DAY BUT A LAND BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE ON FRI WILL BE PUSHED WEST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...ACCOMPANIED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER. GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT DIRECTION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BUT COULD RANGE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST AT ANY GIVEN MOMENT INTO SAT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ONSHORE. LIGHT WINDS AND CHANGEABLE DIRECTION WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...DCH

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