Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 262016 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 316 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST IS DEVELOPING INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO FRONT LATE THURSDAY WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST...SITUATED DIRECTLY BENEATH A BEAUTIFUL BAROCLINIC LEAF ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOW THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WE STILL HAVE SOME INTERESTING WEATHER COMING UP OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE COLD UPPER LOW. AT 500 MB THIS LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF SE VIRGINIA A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. 500 MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -26C HAVE STEEPENED LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO NEAR OR JUST BEYOND THE MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE...AND WIDESPREAD CUMULUS CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN THE RESULT. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MOST NUMEROUS FROM DILLON DOWN HIGHWAY 9 TOWARD LORIS...ALTHOUGH MODELS TRENDS SUGGEST THE BULK OF IT SHOULD SHIFT INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AFTER DARK...AIDED BY ANOTHER VORT LOBE SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA BY 03Z/10 PM. FORECAST POPS ARE HIGHEST...UP TO 50-60 PERCENT...FROM THE STATE LINE INTO WILMINGTON...WITH LESSER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PEE DEE REGION DOWN TOWARD GEORGETOWN. AFTER MIDNIGHT DRY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CLEAR PRECIP AND THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF SOUTH CAROLINA...HOWEVER RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH PULLING OUT TO THE NE THAT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE THROUGH AT LEAST COASTAL SE NORTH CAROLINA. AFTER 5 AM TUESDAY MORNING I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20%) CONFINED TO JUST PENDER COUNTY NC...AND IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN AS FREEZING LEVELS COME DOWN TO AROUND 500 FEET AGL. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 30S INLAND. AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST...SITUATED DIRECTLY BENEATH A BEAUTIFUL BAROCLINIC LEAF ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOW THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WE STILL HAVE SOME INTERESTING WEATHER COMING UP OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE COLD UPPER LOW. AT 500 MB THIS LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF SE VIRGINIA A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM...THE LOW OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP INTO AN IMPRESSIVE NOR`EASTER THE WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. FROM THE SYSTEM THERE ARE A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE IN WHICH NORTHERN PENDER COUNTY...MAINLY NORTH OF A PENDERLEA TO SURF CITY LINE...WHERE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN MAY FALL. AT THIS TIME THE CHANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS A VERY LOW 20 PERCENT. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WITH A NORTHWEST THEN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A CLEAR SKY ON TUESDAY THE AREA WILL SEE HIGHS ON TUESDAY REACHING MID 40S TO AROUND 50 AND MID TO UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD EARLY THURSDAY AND JUST OFFSHORE IN A WEAKENING STATE LATER IN THE DAY. ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW NORMAL QUITE DRY BUT SOME PVA INDUCED BY THE WESTERLIES REACTING WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN THE SW WINDS TO BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. MEANWHILE AFTERNOON TEMPS REBOUND CLOSE TO CLIMO. WILL THIS MOISTURE BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SOME PRECIPITATION AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING? HARD TO SAY THIS FAR OUT BUT GIVEN THE FAIRLY ROBUST STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH THE SLIGHT CHANCE INHERITED POPS LOOK FINE. EITHER WAY IT WILL STAY MILD ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY PTYPE CONCERNS. THE WEEKEND WILL BASICALLY JUST FEATURE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY VORTEX. THERE MAY AT SOME TIME BE ENOUGH OF A SPOKE OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS FLOW TO YIELD ASCENT AND EVEN OFFSHORE PRESSURE FALLS. ANY SUCH DISTURBANCE IS FAR BEYOND BEING SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR NETWORK AND SO SOLUTIONS MAY SHOW HIGH VARIABILITY FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS MOST PRUDENT TO FOCUS ON THE CHILLY TEMPS AND ADDRESS ANY CLOUD COVER AND LOW RAIN CHANCES AT A FUTURE TIME. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON COULD GIVE WAY TO PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SFC HEATING WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY 20-21Z...MOST LIKELY OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS AND INTRODUCE TEMPO -SHRA AT KLBT AND KILM THIS EVENING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF AVIATION IMPACTS OTHER THAN MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS TEMPO MVFR VSBYS. W-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KILM AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE NOR`EASTER. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AND LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL BECOME A MONSTER STORM SYSTEM FOR NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. FOR THE CAROLINA COAST THIS SHOULD SIMPLY BE A WIND EVENT. NORTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS HIGH WITH THIS EVENT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT IN VERY CHOPPY SHORT PERIODS WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS. OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY (NEARLY 35 MILES OUT) SEAS COULD BUILD TO 7-8 FT! SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...WITH THE NOR`EASTERLY SLOWLY MOVING FROM AWAY FROM THE VIRGINIA COAST WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND THEN NORTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MAINTAIN THERE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY SO SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 FEET ON TUESDAY AND THEN DIMINISH TO 1 TO 4 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...AN INITIALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE CELL MOVES OFF THE COAST. BY EVENING THIS WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VEERING DIRECTION WHICH PAIRED WITH THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS COULD LEAD TO SOME MARGINAL 6 FT SEAS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH WIND AND SEAS BOTH SHOWING A DOWNWARD/IMPROVING TREND. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...HAWKINS LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...BJR

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