Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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669 FXUS62 KILM 060242 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 942 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST WITH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING IN...MAINLY INLAND. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 940 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: COLD ADVECTION IS ENDING AT THE 850 MB LEVEL BUT SHOULD CONTINUE AT 925 MB UNTIL MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR IS FINALLY ARRIVING AT THE COAST WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME AS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD TONIGHT. ONE CONCERN IS THE WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE MORNING 4-INCH SOIL TEMP IN CADES SC WAS 53 AND IT`S CURRENTLY 56 HERE IN WILMINGTON. THAT HEAT SHOULD BLEED OUT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS INDICATES. MY FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND AROUND 30 AT THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL START OFF THE WEEKEND BUT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE OFF SHORE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME SNOW. SATURDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY AND COOL WITH TEMPS INCREASING UP CLOSE TO 50. EXPECT CLOUDS INCREASING LATE DAY INTO SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AS TROUGH DEEPENS ALOFT AS IT DIGS DOWN INTO THE GULF STATES BRINGING MOISTURE ALOFT AND THEN RECEIVES ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND CAA IN E-NE FLOW AS LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DEEP FEED OF MOISTURE. LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE AND SOUNDING PROFILES BECOME NEARLY SATURATED ABOVE 3K FT FT BY MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. THE MOISTURE DEEPENS FURTHER ALONG THE COAST DOWN TO 1500 FT. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO PRODUCE SNOW. ALONG THE COAST THE WARM NOSE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE TOO DEEP AND WARM...FROM 1500FT TO 5KFT AND UP TO AROUND 4C BUT IT DOES DECREASE AS COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THROUGH SUN MORNING. INLAND SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOVE 2500 FT REMAINING AT OR BELOW 0C. THEREFORE EXPECT SOME AREAS WILL SEE SNOW WITH BEST CHC INLAND BUT THE BACK EDGE OF MOISTURE WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST WEST OF CWA DOWN LESS THAN A HALF INCH AND REACHING UP TO NEAR .85 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN PCP AND NO PCP. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY LOOKED BEST EARLY MORNING SUNDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SLOWER TO MOVE OUT MOISTURE AND END PCP LATER. FOR NOW WILL KEEP RAIN MODERATE AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST WITH QPF UP OVER AN INCH IN PLACES. THIS COULD INTRODUCE SOME FLOODING ISSUES WITH SUCH SATURATED GROUNDS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL. AS FOR SNOW...WITH INCLUDE RAIN AND SNOW MIX WITH UP TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING...MAINLY ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW MIX ALTHOUGH TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SFC...WITH SUCH A DEEP SYSTEM THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PCP COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AS TEMPS COOL RAPIDLY IN PLACES WITH VERY STRONG DYNAMICS IN PLACE. WILL ALSO SEE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF SHORE. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND MUCH STRONGER OFF SHORE. TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO COOL SAT NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST PLACES. AS PCP BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT SPREADING UP FROM THE SOUTH...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN BELOW FREEZING IN PLACES...ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT DEWPOINT TEMPS BELOW FREEZING INLAND. THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN INTO THE EVENING AS LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A RETURN TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER DEVELOPS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REINFORCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...REACHING -3 TO -4 SD`S FROM NORMAL. THIS IN ITSELF IS A SIGNAL FOR VERY COLD AIR LOCALLY...BUT IS ACCENTUATED BY COLD ADVECTION BEHIND A REINFORCING SHOT OF VORT ENERGY/COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS CRASH FROM ABOUT 0C TO -10C DURING TUESDAY...THEN REMAIN THERE WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION ONGOING TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP MINS FROM FALLING TO EXTREMELY COLD VALUES...HIGHS AND LOWS TUE/WED/THU WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...AND APPARENT TEMPS DUE TO WIND CHILLS TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT COULD BE THE COLDEST OF THE YEAR...FALLING INTO THE TEENS. BY FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND MOVING OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE NORMS. THE OTHER CONSIDERATION THIS PERIOD INVOLVES PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT VORT AND COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S DURING PRECIP...SOME SIGNALS POINT TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY THAT RAIN SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS. STRONG LIFT DUE TO PVA AND A SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SUGGEST PRECIP WILL ORIGINATE AS ICE BEFORE MELTING ON THE WAY DOWN. HOWEVER...CROSS SECTIONS SHOW STRONG OMEGA CORRELATED WITH DECREASING THETAE WITH HEIGHT IN A REGION OF HIGH RH. THIS COULD DYNAMICALLY COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH FOR SNOW...AND NOTE THAT ABOUT 1/5 OF GFS ENSEMBLES PRODUCE SNOW LOCALLY. LOCAL TOP DOWN DID PRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT HAVE KEPT ALL PRECIP AS -RW /RAIN SHOWERS/ FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND TO ELIMINATE CONFUSION WITH THE POSSIBLE SNOW ON SUNDAY.&& && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM BY 03Z. ON SATURDAY EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. CLOUDS WILL FLOW NORTHWARD OR BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE REGION AS SOME GOOD DYNAMICS BEGIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN OR POSSIBLE SNOW SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR. A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. PREDOMINATELY VFR WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 940 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...LEADING TO SLOWLY DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS...BUT SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW THE REQUISITE 6 FEET EVEN OUT AT 20 MILES DISTANCE FROM SHORE LATER THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT AN INCREASE INTO 20-25 KNOTS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND THE GRADIENT INCREASES. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE OFF SHORE WATERS AND DEEPENS RAPIDLY. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR NORTHERN 2 MARINE ZONES AND EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS ESPECIALLY IN OUTER WATERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL RISE FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY SATURDAY...REACHING INTO SCA THRESHOLDS BY SAT NIGHT NEAR MIDNIGHT AND MAY PEAK AS HIGH AS 12 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS LOW RIDES BY TO OUR EAST. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL REACH 15-20 KTS MONDAY...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AT 20-25 KTS BEHIND FROPA. THESE WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN PRIMARILY FROM THE WEST AT 20-25 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A PREDOMINANT OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK...THE STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS WILL STILL DRIVE SEAS UP FROM 3-5 FT EARLY MONDAY TO 4-8 FT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SEAS MAY BEGIN TO EASE VERY LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE RAISED FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR AMZ250-252.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...REK/TRA SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL MARINE...REK/TRA/JDW/RGZ

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