Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 150540 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1240 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cool high pressure will extend into the Carolinas through the weekend. A warming trend will take place by Tuesday and hold into Thursday as southerly winds ahead of the next cold front brings mild air. Rain chances will ramp up late in the week as a front stalls, followed by low pressure from the Gulf states.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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As of 945 PM Saturday...Latest sat imagery trends indicate a good deal of Ci/Cs moving across the FA especially across the SC portion of the ILM-CWA. Observations underneath this ci/cs canopy remain for the most part cloud-free. This poses a somewhat dilemma of lightning up on the cloud coverage and increasing the potential for low stratus and fog development especially with winds having decoupled at most locations after the development of the sfc based inversion. The more opaque cirrus will keep the fog in check for now. The widespread to areas of fog, with some dense, will occur just south of the ILM CWA where the stalled sfc boundary lies.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Saturday...Although confidence is low regarding placement, it looks like the old back-door front will continue to waver about over the eastern Carolinas. Weak associated lift and continued low-level mositure advection will keep us in and out of clouds through the period, with the off chance of a few sprinkles or light showers. QPF is expected to be minimal, with most places staying dry. A weak wedge-like pattern resulting from this setup will allow a cool NE flow to develop by Sunday afternoon, with daytime temperatures dropping back around climo on Monday. Extensive cloud cover will help keep lows elevated in the mid to upper 40s though for both nights. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 245 PM Saturday...The mid level pattern will feature a split flow initially with a transition into a broader western trough and eastern ridge by the end of the period. For our area weak systems will accompany this flow and expect a kind of unsettled albeit warm period. The first system is a cold front Wednesday that lacks much push to the south and sets up residence west to east across the area. A slightly stronger mid level system will move across the area late Thursday and Friday and the highest pops are forecast for this period. Trying to find a period or two where we can remove pops but with some timing differences among the guidance it has proven all but impossible. Expect warm temperatures throughout the period with more highs in the 70s at least early on. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 06Z...Patchy but dense fog appears poised to plague all terminals as night-time 11-3.9 micron imagery shows partially clear skies across SE NC and NE SC. As a result, areas of IFR due to CIGS/VSBY BTWN 8Z-14Z can be expected. After daybreak, lingering low CIGS will gradually disperse, with MVFR to VFR conditions. WNW winds Sunday morning 4-8 KTS becoming NE in the afternoon as a high pressure wedge is reinforced. Another round of IFR/MVFR due to CIGS/VSBY may be on tap late Sunday night. Extended Outlook...Stratus/fog possible each morning through Tuesday. Cold front expected Wednesday will be accompanied by showers and MVFR. Otherwise expect VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 945 PM Saturday...Sfc pg somewhat relaxed now as weak sfc high pressure prevails behind the stalled front now extending inland just south of South Santee River. Looking at NW to N winds around 10 kt for the remainder of this evening and overnight. For significant seas 2 to 4 ft will dominate the local waters. The majority of the seas make-up will come from a 2 to 3 foot easterly ground swell exhibiting 12 second periods. Will have to monitor for any possible patchy sea fog in the vcnty of the stalled front. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Saturday...High pressure centered to the north will extend south across the waters through the short term, keeping winds generally northerly and in the 10 to 15 kt range through the period. Seas will range right around 3 ft. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 PM Saturday...Overall expect a southerly flow Tuesday into early Thursday as what is left of yet another wedge scenario quickly dissipates. Wind speeds will reach a maximum of 15-20 knots Wednesday afternoon as a cold front moves closer from the northwest. This front moves south Thursday and essentially dissipates with the wind fields much weaker but maintaining a southerly component. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...8 NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...DCH/REK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL/8

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