Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 272037 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 337 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY BRINGING ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 WITH SOME MID 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THIS COLD HIGH BUILDS STRONGLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO BECOME ELEVATED. NNE TO NE WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE HIGHER OVERNIGHT THEN THEY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVE. THESE WINDS SHOULD AID IN ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN THEY DID LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE TEMP DROP WILL BE MODERATED BY THE ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT...UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AROUND. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE DEVELOPING 1000 TO 1500 FT AGL AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND ALLOWS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO FEED INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING COLD WEDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY AND HOLD HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON SAT AND MOST OF SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP SUN MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. LATER SUN MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE...LESSENING ISENTROPIC LIFT. WEDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE DURING SUN THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST WARM ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS ON SUN CLOSER TO CLIMO...THOUGH TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY FALL 5 TO 10 DEGREES SHORT. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP LOWS NEAR FREEZING SAT NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR CLIMO SUN NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF SHORE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE E-NE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE...INITIALLY THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMP UP AROUND 60 ON MONDAY. BY LATER ON MONDAY A DEEPER NW FLOW WILL INCREASE CAA BRINGING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 10C EARLY MON DOWN TO 4 C BY TUES MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND MORE ON SHORE BY TUES AFTN. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS MON NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. A RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH UP FROM THE GULF MON NIGHT INTO TUES AND WILL SHARPEN AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID WEST BY WED. AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES AND RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PUSH COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT. A BRIEF WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO SHALLOW RELATIVELY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON TUES. EXPECT CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP ON TUES AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL KEEP A LARGER TEMP RANGE IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPS TO THE SOUTH ON TUES BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS BY END OF DAY. TUES NIGHT WILL HAVE NEAR STEADY OR RISING TEMPS IN WAA BEHIND FRONT. COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL BE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP THE AIR COOLER. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING...SOME BREAKS MAY PUSH TEMPS HIGHER IN A FEW PLACES. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH COLD FRONT WHILE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL HEDGE TOWARD SLOWER FROPA AND KEEP TEMPS WARMER WED NIGHT AND WILL BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLIER ON THURS WITH TEMPS COOLING IN CAA THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. IF FRONT COMES EARLIER THAN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON WED AFTN AND EVENING. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASING SHWERS AHEAD OF FRONT. EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN LATE THURS INTO FRI AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH SW TO W WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BY MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH MON WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MON NIGHT. BY TUES THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL GET A PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE SOUTHERLY PUSH OF WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TUES INTO WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH AN APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT BY LATE WED. THIS SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL DRIVE SEAS UP LATE TUES THROUGH WED...UP TO 3 TO 5 FT BY TUES EVE AND THEN REACHING SCA THRESHOLDS BY WED. THE SEAS SHOULD PEAK WED NIGHT UP AROUND 7 FT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
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&& .MARINE...
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS EVE. AS THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST STATES THIS EVE...IT WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO DEVELOP SOONER. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY SAT MORNING AND BY THAT TIME...A WEDGE WILL BE JUST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHICH WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT TO ALMOST PINCHED. THUS...WINDS SHOULD BE HIGHER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE OF UP TO 15 TO 20 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE NNE TO NE. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT THIS EVE AND TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OF LONG BAY WILL BE CLOSER TO 3 FT BY MORNING. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 4 TO 8 FT SAT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCATIONS WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW IS OFFSHORE. IN THESE LOCATIONS NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT. GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE SAT NIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH TAKES SHAPE AND HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS DROP UNDER 20 KT EARLY SUN MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. REDUCTION IN NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP AND BY DAYBREAK SUN SEAS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 FT AND 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO 15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43

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