Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KILM 280624
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
148 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017
Chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase as an upper level
disturbance moves through ahead of a cold front today. The cold
front will move through tonight into early Wednesday. Relatively
cooler and drier high pressure will build in from the north late
Wednesday into Thursday. Warmer and more humid air will return on
Friday with increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of
a cold front which will move off shore early Saturday. The weekend
into early next week should be dry with an increasing chance of
showers again next Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 800 PM Monday...Have followed closely to the HRRR model
for pcpn this evening which pretty much has it dissipating by
now in conjunction with what the latest KLTX 88D is displaying
attm. However, both the RAP and HRRR are somewhat in unison in
re-developing pcpn just southwest of the ILM CWA during the
pre-dawn hrs and pushes northeast and affects the SW thru W
portions of the ILM CWA toward daybreak Tue. Have re-vamped
POPs to low chance in these areas. Have continued the increase
in pops for showers and tstms during Tue morning ahead of the
approaching dynamics aloft. The instability avbl for thunder
will be borderline but given time of day and marginal being
advertised by SPC for the ILM NC CWA, have kept thunder included
thruout the FA. Tonights lows in the 50s to near 60 needed very
Although the official surf zone forecast season has not started
yet. It bares to mention that local beaches will see some
increase to rip current activity during Tuesday. This a result
of a healthy SE ground swell affecting the local waters and
increasing the surf.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Mid level ridging moving slowly across the
Tennessee Valley will be the main player through the short term
period. This will allow high pressure to migrate from the Great
Lakes region into a cold air damming scenario by early
Thursday. With a cold front moving offshore early in the period,
pops will not be an issue through the period. Expect mostly
sunny skies Wednesday with some low level cloudiness developing
in with the wedge early Thursday. Expect another warm day
Wednesday with highs possibly reaching and eclipsing 80 degrees
before the cool down Thursday.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Strong high pressure centered across
Quebec Province Thu morning will ridge south across the eastern
Carolinas. The ridge will drift offshore during the day Thu and
Thu night. Strong low pressure across the Midwest Thu night will
move to the northeast and gradually weaken. Its attendant cold
front will move across the area Fri night. Deep moisture will be
tapped ahead of this system, but the best upper level support
will pass by to our N. Still expect a likelihood of showers and
thunderstorms Fri and Fri night. Drier air will gradually build
into the area on Sat as high pressure slowly builds from the NW,
but with cool air aloft, can not rule out an isolated shower or
thunderstorm. Upper ridge late in weekend will move offshore
during Mon and this will allow a very potent southern stream
system to bring a heightened risk of showers and thunderstorms
across the eastern Carolinas as it lifts NE from the Gulf Coast
states into the southern Great Lakes region and brings a surge
of deep Gulf of Mexico moisture northward.
High temps will be above normal through the period, lower to mid
70s. Lows will be mainly in the 50s.
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 06Z...VFR conditions will last until around daybreak as upper
disturbance reaches the area. Expect mainly MVFR SHRA but an
increasingly unstable air mass will produce isolated IFR TSTMS
mainly from 13Z thru 21Z with coastal terminals mainly after 15Z.
Winds will veer slowly through the day but may see a slight backing
along coastal terminals in the afternoon due to sea breeze.
Generally looking at SSW to SW winds 5 kt or less overnight and
picking back up to SW 10-15 kt during daylight Tue. A cold front
will lag behind the convection and will likely push thru late Tue
night into early Wed. Kept fog out of the forecast as winds remain
up overnight with plenty of clouds.
Extended outlook...MVFR and possibly IFR conditions possible from
fog Wed morning. MVFR/IFR conditions due to scattered showers and
thunderstorms Fri/Fri night.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 815 PM Monday...Looking at SSE to SSW winds around 10 kt
for the overnight period. Ridging from the offshore high will
drop south of the area...allowing winds to become more SW during
Tue. The sfc pg will tighten-some during Tue with wind speeds
increasing to 10 to 15 kt.
Significant seas will generally run 3 to 4 ft tonight and 3 to 5
ft during Tue. A well established SE ground swell at 10 to 11
second periods will dominate the seas spectrum tonight thru Tue.
Even with an increase of wind driven waves during Tue, the SE
ground swell will remain the dominant input to the significant
seas. Both WaveWatch3 and local SWAN highlight this ground
swell. The swell is coming from a rather deep low pressure
system well offshore from the SE U.S. Coast that is moving
northeast, further away from the U.S. mainland.
Boaters navigating to and from area inlets on Tue could
encounter rough wave conditions especially during an outgoing
tide combined with the incoming 10+ second period swell.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Expect changeable winds through the period as
initially a southwest flow of around 15 knots will be in place. A
cold front will quickly move across the waters by 12z Wednesday
with a weak west to northwest flow. This modest flow will be in
place for about six hours or so before a surge from the
northeast commences. This surge will last through the remainder
of the period with winds from the northeast on the lower end of
a 15-20 knot range. Significant seas will be 3-5 feet early and
late in the period with 2-4 feet in between.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...A Small Craft Advisory may be required
for all waters Fri and Fri night.
Strong high pressure centered across Quebec Province Thu morning
will ridge south across the waters. The ridge will drift offshore
during the day Thu and Thu night. Strong low pressure across the
Midwest Thu night will move to the northeast and gradually weaken.
Its attendant cold front will move across the waters Fri night. High
pressure will gradually build across the waters from the NW during
Sat. The wind direction will be from the NE Thu morning, veering to
the E Thu afternoon and SE Thu night. S winds Fri will veer to SW
Fri night and then shift to W toward Sat morning. Wind speeds will
be 15 to 20 kt Thu and Thu night and may increase to 20 to 25 kt
Fri/Fri night. Wind speeds on Sat will be 10 to 15 kt. Seas will be
3 to 5 ft Thu and Thu night, building to 4 to 7 ft Fri/Fri night
before subsiding to 3 to 4 ft Sat afternoon.