Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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348 FXUS62 KILM 212210 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 613 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Mild weather will prevail through today before chillier air behind a cold front comes crashing into the eastern Carolinas tonight. The weekend will be characterized by seasonably cool temperatures with lows in the 40s and highs remaining below 70 degrees Saturday and Sunday. A brief warm-up Monday will be followed by a reinforcing shot of dry and cool air Monday night. This will set the stage for dry and fair conditions in the upcoming week with temperatures near normal for the season. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 3 PM Friday...Despite the strength of the cold front coming into western zones and the dynamics accompanying it the air is just too dry to support any more than 20-ish POPs. These will be confined to mainly NC zones and only into the evening with FROPA. Cold advection slated for the remainder of the period to yield a breezy night and low temps in the upper 40s to 50. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Friday...A crisp Fall airmass will build into the area over the weekend. Expect full sunshine and decreasing winds but also temperatures below climatology by roughly 5 degrees by both day and night as highs fall short of 70 and nighttime lows dip into the 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 PM Friday...Dry cold front will sweep across the forecast area Monday followed by surface high building in from the north, pushed south by 5h trough exiting New England early next week. Temps Mon, ahead of the front, will end up above climo. Surface ridge axis is quick to move east despite flow aloft that isn`t fully zonal. Surface flow will veer from northerly at the start of the period to southerly late in the period. Aloft the flow transitions from northwest flow Mon to westerly flow Wed as weak 5h ridge to the west expands east. Ridge is of limited strength but combination of southerly low level flow and slight increase in heights later in the week will bring about a gradual warming trend. Late in the week the GFS/ECMWF are split with respect to strength and location of shortwave trough. ECMWF keeps the 5h ridge a bit stronger which results in the wave passing north of the region. Trailing cold front would push across the area sometime Fri but would do so dry. GFS maintains a weaker mid level ridge which results in the shortwave moving across NC/VA Fri with unsettled weather to end period. For now favor the ECMWF solution given the tendency for the guidance to underestimate the strength of ridging aloft. Temps Tue and Wed will run a little below climo before returning near climo Thu and Fri. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 00Z...Front will be east of the coastal terminals by 00Z. Any convection will likely also be east of the terminals by taf issuance. Fairly strong cold air advection will commence with gusty northwest winds expected for most of the taf period. Saturday, nearly clear skies with a gusty northwest wind continuing. Winds will begin to wane at the end of the forecast period. Extended Outlook...Expect VFR Saturday night through Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Friday...Winds still rather light across the waters but cold front bearing down on the area from the west. This boundary will bring an abrupt wind shift and increase in wind speed this evening, followed by a cool surge that has caused us to raise a Small Craft Advisory that will remain in effect overnight and beyond. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Friday...Fairly robust cool advection and high pressure moving in through Saturday morning before the gradient starts to ease. Advisory flags likely to be flying until afternoon or evening, with northern zones likely abating a bit after their southern counterparts. The high to our west starts to move eastward Saturday night and should sprawl across a good part of the Carolinas and Gulf States by Sunday allowing for wind speeds to drop off especially later in the day. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Friday...Cold front will cross the waters during Mon with cold advection Mon night and Tue leading to northerly flow in the 15 to 20 kt range. Cold advection and gradient weaken later Tue with winds becoming more northeast and dropping to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft Mon could approach 5 ft well away from the coast Tue afternoon. Decreasing winds during the second half of the period will allows seas to drop back around 3 ft Wed. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 615 AM Friday...Looks like between the hours of noon and 5 pm for the next chance for the Lower Cape Fear River to spill out of it`s banks. At this point, it could breach the Moderate flooding thresholds of 6.7 ft MLLW as forecast and observed at the downtown Wilmington gage. Expect the next advisory or warning to be issued within the next 3 to 4 hours. the following are high tides for the gage on the Lower Cape Fear River of downtown Wilmington thru Sunday... High tide 2:57 PM on Fri. High tide 3:23 AM on Sat. High tide 3:56 PM on Sat. High tide 4:22 AM on Sun. High tide 4:53 PM on Sun. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ250-252. && $$ NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...43 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.