Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 200219 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1019 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF FLORIDA AND MOVE NORTH...PASSING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE SUCH THAT IMPACTS WILL REMAIN LIMITED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST ON TUESDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION ON NORTHEAST WINDS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1015 PM FRIDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE CONTINUES TO SHARPEN THIS EVENING...PRESSING SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. KLTX VAD WIND PROFILE CLOCKING 30-35 KNOT E-ENE WIND IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET. PLENTIFUL CLOUDS FEEDING INTO A CYCLOGENIC AREA OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...RECYCLED ODILE WATER MOLECULES HEADED THAT WAY. LOCALLY...CLOUDS WERE THICKENING AND TEAMING ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS...AS THE ROBUST MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES. OVERHEAD JETTING ALOFT ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE A HAND IN SKY TRENDS BASED ON SATELLITE SIGNATURES. THIS PLACES A MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT FORECAST FOR OUR COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR INTO EARLY SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE...AND HIGHER LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR HIGHEST NOCTURNAL POP VALUES ACROSS OUR SC COAST...PRIMARILY FROM MURRELLS INLET SOUTHWARD. AS DIURNAL COOLING OVER THE WATERS GOES ON...SO WILL INCREASING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BUOYANCY...AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL REMAIN IN THE PROGNOSIS OVER THE 0-20NM WATERS OVERNIGHT. STEERING WINDS MAY DIRECT A FEW TOWERING CELLS ONSHORE MAINLY INTO OUR GEORGETOWN COUNTY OVERNIGHT...WITH GGE PICKING UP OVER A HALF INCH FROM ACTIVITY EARLIER. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE...PROMPTED BY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS UNDERWAY OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MINIMUMS APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH LOWER 60S OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR REMOVED FROM OVERCAST SKIES...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES...AROUND 70 BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POISED TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH FOR LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. I HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE BEST LIFT AND MORE IMPORTANTLY MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS BETWEEN 1800 UTC SATURDAY AND 0000 UTC SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH MAYBE BALD HEAD ISLAND AND EXTREME EASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY SEEING A BIT MORE. SYSTEM PULLS OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY LEAVING IN ITS WAKE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS REQUIRED LITTLE CHANGE. A COOL DAY SATURDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 80. INSOLATION BUMPS MAX TEMPERATURES UP ABOUT A CATEGORY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IS SHOWING DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MONDAY COLD FRONT LOOKING FASTER AND LIKELY THROUGH BY MORNING. THE AFTERNOON LINGERING PRECIP ALONG THE COAST DEPICTED BY THE GFS IS ASSOC WITH A HEALTHY VORT MAX COMING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND IS THUS HARD TO ARGUE WITH. BY TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF NY WILL SPRAWL ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S. INCLUDING A RIDGE AXIS DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. SOME ONSHORE FLOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES MAY SPONSOR SOME CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A STRAY SPRINKLE. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS HOLDS TOUGH. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD CREEP OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A JUST A FEW DEGREES SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...NE-ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE S AND PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS. A BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON RADAR SHOULD REMAIN E-SE OF KILM...BUT COULD AFFECT KCRE/KMYR THIS EVENING. TEMPO 2-5K CIGS WILL POTENTIALLY OCCUR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT BEST CONFIDENCE WILL BE AT CRE/KMYR THIS EVENING...AS OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINATELY OFFSHORE. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OFFSHORE KCRE/KMYR. AFTER SUNRISE SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. KFLO/KMYR WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR VFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO THE TIMING OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS SAT EVENING. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SAT EVNG WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND DECREASE SUN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR SUN THROUGH WED WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER WITH A COLD FRONT MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE STRONGLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SATURDAY. MEANTIME...A PRONOUNCED INVERTED TROUGH POKING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA WILL SHARPEN AS IT EXPANDS NORTH. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA TOWARD SAT MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SUSTAINED EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND GUSTY. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6 TO 7 FT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HEALTHY NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVES WELL OFFSHORE. I HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS SATURDAY AND THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL ECLIPSE THE SIX FOOT CRITERIA MAINLY ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE ZONES. A MORE MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW...10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY AND PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AS WELL INTO A RANGE OF 2-3 FEET. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...EARLY MONDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE VEERS WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THE GRADIENT WILL INITIALLY BE RATHER WEAK AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT. AS THE GRADIENT PINCHES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL RAMP UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT REALM. A FEW ADVISORY-WORTHY SEAS APPEAR POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL BUT HORRY CNTY WHERE WAVE SHADOWING WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ADVISORY. SCEC MAY BE NEEDED HOWEVER. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR/MJC

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