Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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275 FXUS62 KILM 161602 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1102 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy, with record warmth in many locations today, ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will drop south this evening, then linger nearby Saturday, bringing cool and damp conditions. Another front will bring a chance of rain Saturday night and Sunday morning, but temperatures will warm into the 60s Sunday afternoon. Upper ridging from the Bahamas early next week, will help bring temperatures well above normal for February. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10 AM Friday...Only minimal changes this morning. Strong warm advection coupled with periods of sun will see highs ranging from upper 70s to lower 80s. West-southwest wind direction will limit impact of the cooler shelf waters. This wind direction is also likely to limit sea fog. Dewpoints are in the upper 50s to lower 60s, even downstream, so sea fog seems like less of a concern. Based on the flow direction this morning and less cloud cover than anticipated, did tweak temps up just a bit. Still looking for the cold front to arrive this evening then slowly sag south across the area. Forcing with the front is weak and being an anafront, where the bulk of the forcing occurs post front, what rain does fall will be following the passage of the boundary. Mid level moisture is limited and rainfall totals are likely to be under a tenth of an inch. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 354 AM Friday...`Cooler With Occasional Light Rain` aptly headlines the weekend, although by Sunday afternoon, look for temperatures to rise above normal, as the progressive pattern sends high pressure offshore late Sunday. A cold front will sink just south of the area Saturday, only to lift north slightly ahead of a secondary pressure trough/weak cold front, Saturday night. The boundary will push south again Sunday, as another high pressure area migrates into the region from the west. The two wet periods should be early Saturday in low-level over- running, inducing patches of -ra/dz, but very little measured in buckets at the end of the day, and again Saturday night into Sunday, as the 2nd cold front moves through. Total weekend precipitation, up to 1/10th along the I-95 corridor, to a few hundredths along the coast. While plentiful clouds are expected through the course of the weekend, look for partial sunshine Sunday afternoon, as ridging aloft from the Bahamas edges in. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...The front to the south will waver and lift back into early Monday morning as a warm front. This will be the beginning of a very warm period for the upcoming week, but may be accompanied by a few showers into Monday morning. Soundings suggest increasing saturation, but forcing is weak, so the front may manifest only as increasing cloud cover rather than showers. Will carry inherited SCHC/low CHC early Monday. Strong WAA develops thereafter, persisting at least into Wednesday as a summer like synoptic setup develops. Bermuda high pressure offshore and amplified mid-level ridging across the southeast will drive temps to well above normal values, near 80 Tue/Wed, with scattered WAA showers possible during the aftns. An abrupt changes occurs Thursday as a shortwave and backdoor front suppress the ridge and bring a wedge of high pressure into the Carolinas. This will return temps back to seasonable levels with better chances for rain. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 18Z...VFR this afternoon with southwest to west- southwest winds gusting to 22-27 kt. A cold front will move through this evening with low VFR/tempo MVFR cigs. West winds will veer to the northwest, eventually becoming northeast overnight. An isolated shower is possible with fropa but confidence is low as moisture is shallow. Post frontal cigs will drop to MVFR from northeast to southwest beginning around 06Z at KILM. Isolated showers will be moving northeast to southwest overnight, but moisture will remain shallow so any precipitation should be very light. GFS MOS guidance indicate IFR cigs by 18Z at the coastal terminals. Have maintained MVFR per forecast soundings. Extended Outlook...SHRA MVFR/tempo IFR Sat-Sun morning. Becoming VFR Sun. Tempo MVFR/IFR/SHRA cig/vsby Sun night/Mon. Becoming VFR Tue. VFR/SHRA Wed.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10 AM Friday...Strong west-southwest flow continues today but the trajectory is such that currently sea fog does not seem to be a concern. Satellite does not appear to show any at the moment but have kept mention of it in the forecast as the anticipated increase in dewpoints later today may make its formation a little more likely. SCA continues for NC zones based on latest from 41013 suggesting such conditions likely exist out near 20 NM. Overall minimal changes to forecast for the AM update. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 354 AM Friday...Improving marine conditions through Saturday after a rough early start and 5 foot seas offshore. Diminishing NE winds Saturday will become light into evening, but a cold front late Saturday night, will bring a NE surge into Sunday, but no advisories or caution headlines expected at this time. Saturday night and Sunday seas will be down to 3 feet or less, but early Saturday, still recovering, 3-5 ft at daybreak Saturday. Drizzle and mist may reduce visibility along the inshore waters Saturday to less than 2 NM. Easing NE and E winds Sunday afternoon and night, will bring favorable marine trends late in the weekend, greeting Monday. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Wind direction veering to the E/NE by Monday morning. The surface high will shift offshore and take up position as Bermuda type ridge Monday and Tuesday, driving increasing return flow and SW winds around 10 kts through the middle of next week. Seas will deamplify into early next week before a SE swell and SW wind wave amplifies late, pushing seas back to 3-4 ft late Tuesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ250- 252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR

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