Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 240806 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 406 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND WELL OFFSHORE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. ITS SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND INTO NC. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE FLOW THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND NORMAL. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH A SMALL RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THIS INCLUDES THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A VERY GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN IS ALREADY UNDERWAY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE FLOW WILL BE ONSHORE AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME STRATOCUMULUS OR FLAT CUMULUS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER...4-6 KFT. STILL...WE ARE EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE AS LOW AS ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 35 TO 45 PERCENT INLAND AND EVEN HIGHER AS YOU MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. E TO ESE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE TODAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THE BEACHES WILL OBSERVE THE STRONGEST WINDS. EVE WINDS WILL BE SLOWEST TO TREND LOWER AT THE BEACHES. TONIGHT...SOME STRATOCUMULUS MAY STILL ADVECT ONTO THE COAST FROM OFFSHORE...BUT IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY FROM TIME TO TIME. MODEL PROFILES ARE INDICATING SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION STRENGTHENS INLAND. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WARMEST INLAND WHERE MID 80S WILL BE MOST COMMON. LOWER 80S WILL BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE COAST. THE DIURNAL CURVE WILL FLATTEN ONCE THE BEACHES REACH THE UPPER 70S LATE THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE LATE NIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH THE BEACHES NOT DROPPING BELOW THE UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED HIGH JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAVING BECOME A FIXTURE THERE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WHAT CHANGES LOCATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS THE SOUTH TO NORTH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THIS UPPER HIGH. FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE ILM CWA. DURING TUESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS EAST AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA...TO JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS BY TUE EVENING AND NIGHT. SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION FROM ITS CENTER LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE ENE OF DELMARVA. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND CAPPING BETWEEN 700MB AND 850MB WILL PREVENT ANY VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CU THAT DEVELOPS BOTH DAYS. THUS...BASICALLY LOOKING AT NO POPS FOR BOTH DAYS. COULD SEE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COMING ON TUE. THIS IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING UP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES OF THE ILM CWA WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAVING MOVED EAST OF THE FA. FOR TEMPS...STAYED JUST BELOW THE MODEL MEAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MON...AT OR A CATEGORY HIER FOR TUE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PLACEMENT OF THE SOUTH TO NORTH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IMPORTANT TO WHETHER THE FA EXPERIENCES CLOUDS AND PCPN OR JUST CLOUDS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE BASIC SOLUTION OF MOVING THE RIDGE AXIS JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS ON WED INTO THU. WITH THE GULF SEMI-OPEN TO THE FA AND A DAMPENING MID-LEVEL S/W TROF HAVING REACHED THE APPALACHIANS BY THU...LOOK FOR CLOUDINESS AND LOW CHANCE FOR PCPN THU INTO FRI...MAINLY FOR AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD. FOR WED AND THU TEMPS...CONTINUED WITH A VARIOUS MODEL MOS CONSENSUS. BY LATE FRI INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS DEFINITELY DIVERGE FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS AND THEREFORE WILL RELY ON CLIMO FOR SENSIBLE WX...IE. MAX/MIN TEMPS...AND FOR LOW CHANCE POPS FORECAST FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH POPS IN DOUBT FOR MUCH OF THU THRU THE REMAINDER THE LONG TERM...COULD ONLY PROCESS A LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR THROUGH SUNRISE DUE TO PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT E-SE THROUGH SUNRISE...EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KLBT/KILM AND KFLO. UNDER CLEAR SKIES THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTEST AND MOISTURE IS THE BEST...AND THAT APPEARS AT KILM ATTM. BUT MOISTURE IS STILL VERY LIMITED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS...BUT CAN NOT DISCOUNT A BRIEF BOUT OF MVFR/IFR IN THE PRE- DAWN HOURS AT KILM. VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH SCT CU/SC AROUND 5K. WINDS WILL BE E IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LITTLE CHANGE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS TUE THROUGH THU. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING BERMUDA RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT. MARINERS WILL NOTE A WEAK ESE SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 9 TO 10 SECONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE E TO ESE TODAY AND ESE TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE POSITIONING OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO CHANGE DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR TUE...THIS AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS NORTH OF THE ILM COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...WILL BE LOOKING AT A DECENT ESE TO SE ONSHORE FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KT NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET...TO AROUND 15 KT OR POSSIBLY 15 TO 20 KT SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET WHERE THE SFC PG WILL BE TIGHTER. LOOK FOR A BUILDING PHASE WITH RESPECT TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS ACROSS ALL WATERS...THEIR LOWEST AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM...AND HIEST AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD. SHOULD SEE A SOLID 3 TO 4 F THRUOUT ALL WATERS. WITH A DECENT FETCH TO CONTEND WITH...LOOK FOR EVENTUALLY THE ONSHORE WIND DRIVEN WAVES OF THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS TO COALESCE RESULTING IN A DECENT ESE TO SSE GROUND SWELL TO CONTEND WITH. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WELL OFFSHORE HIGH OFF DELMARVA...WILL CROSS THE ATL WATERS TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA BY WED. THIS PROVIDES A SSE-SSW WIND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...AND SHUNTS THE DECENT EASTERLY FETCH SOUTHWARD. TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TIME PERIOD...A MID-UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO START THIS PERIOD...IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL WATERS FROM THE SE. NOT MUCH OF A SFC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE...JUST A SFC TROF AT THIS TIME. ITS POSITIONING WILL PREVENT FEATURES FROM PROGRESSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...LOOKING AT LIGHTER WINDS BY THU. WAVEWATCH3 GOES FULL THROTTLE WITH RESPECT TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS DUE TO THE DECENT EASTERLY FETCH SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TO SEE IF ANYTHING BECOMES OF THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH RESPECT TO ANY SFC DEVELOPMENT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...RJD/MRR

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