Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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339 FXUS62 KILM 031039 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 639 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching front will bring another good chance of showers and thunderstorms today. The weakening front then slowly moves offshore by Friday. Rain chances increase this weekend into early next week as weak low pressure develops along the front. More typical summer time weather returns for the middle of next week. && .UPDATE...
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No major changes necessary to the ongoing forecast. Low clouds and patchy fog will burn off through mid-morning. Updated aviation discussion below.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface observations indicate a cold front is somewhere just east of the crest of the Appalachians at this time with dew points in the mid 60s just east of the highest terrain juxtaposed with low 70s dew points in the Piedmont. Under the cover of darkness and as high pressure over the mid-Mississippi Valley builds eastward, this front is expected to make some southeastward progress before sunrise today, but how far it will reach remains a question. As skies clear from northwest to southeast amidst light or calm surface winds and wet ground, fog and/or low stratus appear likely to develop before daybreak, especially around and west of I-95. The antecedent conditions suggest the potential for visibility <2 mi or very low stratus clouds is there, especially across northwestern areas, so morning commuters and those on I-95 may be affected. For today, lingering moisture ahead of the cold front and solar heating should permit the development of moderate instability with SBCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range near the coast. The latest hi-res guidance has generally trended downward in overall precip coverage, which may be related to two things: 1) a mid- level shortwave trough approaching from the northwest has slowed down a bit in the latest runs and this results in its forcing arriving too late in the day and 2) drier air aloft filtering in over top of the front will make it more difficult for incipient updrafts to survive their initial ascent. Nevertheless, between the sea breeze circulation, the surface cold front, and any leftover outflow/cold pools from yesterday`s convection, these boundaries should result in at least isolated convection during the late morning, becoming more scattered this afternoon with slow storm motions and heavy rainfall posing an isolated flash flooding risk again. With the loss of heating, showers and storms will gradually wane and skies should gradually clear, although eastern areas may stay under mostly cloudy skies through daybreak. Where clearing occurs, at least patchy fog and low stratus will be possible again, especially where rain falls. Otherwise, the stalled front should be nudged to the coast or offshore by late in the night as high pressure shifts over the Appalachians. However, even with a light northerly wind shift expected behind the front, little lowering of dew points is anticipated. Moisture will decrease in the middle and upper troposphere instead. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Sfc high pressure nudges in from the north on Friday and with upr-level ridging building in from the west, expect lower PoPs than previous days. Main forcing mechanism will be the sea breeze...leading to close to climo PoPs...chance near the coast and slight chance inland, with a drying trend following the loss of daytime heating. Temps near normal for early July...highs in the upr 80s to lwr 90s with lows Friday night in the low/mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sfc high remains off to the north this weekend as low pressure tries to develop along a stalled frontal boundary to the south. Confidence is low regarding the evolution and movement of this low and whether it will obtain tropical characteristics (NHC has a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation), but either way expect increasing chances for rain this weekend and early next week especially near the coast due to the low`s close proximity to the area, weak steering flow, and high precipitable water. A moist environment and plenty of shortwave energy aloft will then follow leading to at least chance PoPs each day through mid week. Following high temps in the mid/upr 80s Saturday/Sunday, expect low/mid 90s most areas Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Very low stratus and patchy dense fog are affecting inland terminals with some low stratus developing at the tail end of the night near the coast. Restrictions near the coast should mix out within 2 hrs of sunrise, but those at the inland terminals will be slower to rise given the extent of the very low cigs, but the high sun angle this time of year will break through and likely mix them out around mid-morning. During the afternoon, isolated to widely scattered convection is expected, with the greatest coverage near the coast and a better chance for TSRA there as well. Any restrictions due to a passing storm should be short-lived owing to mostly small storm sizes and short lifespans. Convection will gradually dissipate late in the day and debris clouds should clear out, allowing for another round of fog and low stratus to develop. Guidance tools are honing in on a greater fog threat than low stratus, likely due to drying in the middle and lower troposphere behind the weak cold front that should move offshore overnight. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR. Early morning fog and/or low stratus will be possible each morning as low-level moisture remains plentiful, especially near the coast. Otherwise, transient MVFR restrictions due to showers and storms become possible each day over the weekend as an offshore moisture plume returns inland.
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&& .MARINE... Through Tonight... A weakening cold front will approach the waters today, with south-southwesterly winds under 10 kts ahead of it. Eventually, this front should make it offshore and stall over the waters tonight, with a light northerly wind behind the boundary veering to northeasterly late in the night as high pressure crests the Appalachians. South-southwesterly wind waves leftover from the stronger winds of yesterday will diminish this morning. Wave heights in the 2-3 ft range will be primarily driven south-southeasterly swells with a period of 7 sec. Friday through Monday...High pressure remains off to the north as low pressure develops along a stalled frontal boundary to the south. There is still plenty of uncertainty over whether this low becomes tropical (NHC shows a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation), but regardless expect an uptick in winds and seas over the local area this weekend. Exact track and strength of the low will affect the local marine conditions, with SCA conditions due to seas still possible even if the low stays well offshore. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts from NHC. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...ABW NEAR TERM...ABW SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...ABW MARINE...MAS/ABW