Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS62 KILM 280825
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
325 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017
A warm front will lift north of the area today, leading to near
record high temperatures by Wednesday. A strong cold front will
bring showers and a few thunderstorms Wednesday night and early
Thursday, followed by seasonably cool temperatures late week,
with temperatures possibly falling below freezing Saturday
morning. A warming trend is expected Sunday through early week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Warm front will linger along the coast this
morning as a weak surface wave in eastern GA creeps northeast along
the boundary. Weak isentropic lift, as the wave approaches the area,
has resulted in patchy showers across the area. Warm front lifts
northwest of the area during the morning Tue with strong warm
advection developing. Advection will push temps into the mid 70s,
well above climo, and dewpoints into the lower 60s. Despite
increasing surface based instability this afternoon there may be a
limited amount of diurnal convection. Flow above 8k ft is westerly,
leading to an abundance of dry air aloft, and mid level lapse rates
are weak. The best chance for isolated convection will be along the
modified seabreeze, mainly in southeastern NC. Additional activity
might develop along outflow from initial storms, but the synoptic
wind field may disrupt most outflow before any deeper convection is
able to develop.
Lack of forcing mechanisms and instability during the late evening
and overnight hours should bring an end to any lingering evening
showers and keep the overnight period dry. Strong southwest flow
continues pumping warm moist air over the region and lows will end
up more than 20 degrees above climo, close to what daytime highs
should be for this time of year.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM Tuesday...Main headline this period is potential
for record warmth Wednesday, followed by passage of a strong
cold front, possibly accompanied by strong to severe TSTMS late
Wednesday into early Thursday. Possibly because it`s passage is
not lined up well with diurnal heating, but low-level winds will
be strong nonetheless. As it stands right now the SPC has laid
out a slight risk that extends as far east as I-95. Record highs
Wednesday 3/1 include CRE-81 in 1955, ILM-83 in 1918, and
FLO-84 in 1997. Expected rainfall with front 020-0.40 on
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 AM Tuesday...Main theme this period is seasonably
cold, and below normal temperatures on Saturday, where sub
freezing readings may prevail at daybreak Saturday as strong
high pressure migrates across the region. The cold early
Saturday could damage early blooms or flowering crops. The high
will slip off the SE coast Sunday allowing the start of a
warming trend. Late Monday a cold front will approach from the
west, but with the parent low over the Great Lakes, the front
may not be very powerful here locally.
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 06Z...Anticipate cloud cover increasing with bases
lowering during the next few hours, along with an increase in
potential for light showers through daybreak or so. MVFR
ceilings may become more widespread but do not anticipate any
IFR ceilings. Increasing low level moisture and light winds will
lead to development of morning fog. Visibility in most areas
will remain MVFR or higher but inland areas could briefly see
visibility drop into the IFR category. A warm front along the
coast will lift northeast this morning with isolated afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, mainly for coastal counties of NC,
possible. Any showers or thunderstorms will dissipate with the
loss of heating in the evening.
Extended Outlook...VFR. However, there is a risk for reduced
ceilings and visibility in showers and thunderstorms, mainly Wed
night into Thu morning.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Warm front near the coast this morning has
resulted in a mix of light north to northwest winds closer to shore
with stronger southerly winds farther off the coast. The warm front
lifts north of the area today with Bermuda High expanding west and
southwest flow developing across the waters. Southwest flow of 10 to
15 kt through the afternoon will increase to 15 to 20 kt overnight.
Seas 2 to 3 ft through the morning will start trending up late in
the day as southwest flow starts to increase. Seas by the end of the
period will be running 3 to 5 ft.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM Tuesday...A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed sometime on Wednesday, certainly by evening but timing is
a bit nebulous right now with marginal conditions during the
day. Will not raise flags until it becomes more clear on timing.
the other hazard will be strong TSTMS Wednesday night which
will produce locally higher winds and waves. Count of 4-8 foot
seas late Wednesday, wind a wind-shift early Thursday. An
improving trend Thursday as high pressure nears and winds ease,
but an Advisory in the very early going.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/...
As of 325 AM Tuesday...Clipper like system will bring an
increase in N winds Friday but improvement is expected into
Saturday as high pressure moves almost overhead, but chilly.
Seas Friday 3-5 feet will ease to 2-4 feet into Saturday. An
under-lying ESE swell of 1-2 feet will prevail this period.