Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KILM 022323
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
623 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016
High pressure will be reinforced from the northwest and as a result
the weather will remain dry through Saturday. The high will move
offshore Sunday night. A strong and complex storm system will likely
bring soaking rains to the area early next week. The passage of a
cold front late next week will usher in the coldest and driest air
of the season thus far.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Friday...Dry, zonal flow across the Eastern United
States will continue through the remainder of the afternoon and
tonight. The bulk of the column will remain dry however some
cirrus will potentially overspread the area overnight as a storm
system across the Southwest United States begins to direct some
moisture toward the Carolinas. Scattered cirrus and just enough
wind will likely hinder optimal radiational cooling tonight,
nevertheless the typical cool spots may dip into the lower to
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Friday...The atmosphere will be in transition
during the short term period as high pressure loses its
influence to a developing coastal front and approaching southern
stream system. As a result, rain chances will be on the rise,
especially by Sunday night given the proximity of the coastal
front and increasing isentropic lift. Followed a blend of
MAV/MET numbers for the highs/lows each period, however expect
non-diurnal temp trends along the coast Sunday night with the
coastal front moving onshore late.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM Friday...Very active weather slated for the long term
with some minor uncertainties yet to be hashed out. Monday`s weather
will be quite unsettled with high pressure to our north being
overrun by moderately strong warm advection. Rainfall should
initially be light to moderate as there is little deep layer forcing
and all of the resulting upglide will be confined to the lower
levels. Rainfall rates increase heading into Tuesday as height fall
and PVA deepen the ascent. The interplay between two surface lows
may dictate temperatures and their positions are not agreed upon
superbly between various guidance. Drying should be rapid Tuesday
night as this conglomerate system lifts northward. Wednesday and
Thursday will feature a series of moisture-deprived cool fronts
moving through from the northwest. The latest front Thursday night
will usher in some true Arctic air.
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR is expected for this 24 hour TAF valid period.
Winds of 3-8 kt, highest at the coastal terminals, will veer from W-
NW to NNW-NNE overnight. No significant clouds expected. After
sunrise winds speed will increase to 8-12 kt. High clouds will be on
the increase with mid level clouds moving in from the west late in
Extended Outlook...VFR. Moderate confidence for MVFR/TEMPO IFR late
Sun into Mon. Highest confidence of IFR is Mon night into Tues.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Friday...Surface high pressure will continue to
build across the waters from the W-NW through tonight. A minor
surge will build south across the waters generally after midnight.
The increase in northerly winds as a result of the surge will allow
for a period of Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions
primarily for the NC waters which will carry into the short term
period. Along the Cape Fear waters seas are expected to build to
4-5 ft, especially away from the inshore waters given the
orientation of the fetch.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Friday...Northerly winds will diminish during Saturday
afternoon as high pressure builds eastward. The high will slowly
progress off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday night allowing the
flow to veer to a northeasterly direction beginning late Saturday
night. A coastal front will become better established by Sunday night
and as it lifts northward the wind is expected to sharply veer to a
southerly direction late in the period. Seas of 4 to 5 ft Saturday
morning off the Cape Fear coast will subside during the afternoon.
Seas should remain below 3 feet during Sunday then begin to build
again Sunday night.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As OF 3 PM Friday... Winds will be light on Monday but the wind
direction is uncertain. High pressure to our north will be eroding
along the coast as a coastal warm front develops ahead of low
pressure developing over the Gulf. By Tuesday the winds should swing
to the south and ramp up to where wind or seas will necessitate
Small Craft Advisory. Wind turns offshore by Wednesday and decreases
as dual-barreled high pressure lifts out to the north.