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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 290225
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
925 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...AND THEN OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES NOW RIGHT AROUND FREEZING
THIS EVENING AND WELL ON THEIR WAY AT CURRENT RATE TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID 20S MOST LOCATIONS. THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPERATURES. ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR
TERM. LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE SHOW NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE
A SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
STILL...CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...AND TEMPS WILL RISE TO
JUST BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT...JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS OFFSHORE BY FIRST THING FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FROPA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR 0.01
INCHES ARE QUITE LOW...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY "STEAL" MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INHERITED HAS SCHC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS POP BUT WITH JUST-ABOVE MENTIONABLE VALUES...HIGHEST
AT THE COAST. QPF WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
HELD UP INTO THE UPR 30S/LOW 40S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND SW FLOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING...BUT COLD
ADVECTION LAGS WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS LEAVES A
SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT ON THURSDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL INTO THE
20S FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A RETREATING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO A POSITION OFFSHORE BY LATE SUNDAY. BY LATER SUNDAY A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THAT QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE MONDAY. WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...CHANCES FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY. I DID MAINTAIN THE
LIKELY POPS FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT QPF COULD
BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. BEYOND THIS TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...MONDAY
MAY BE DRY AS WELL ALTHOUGH CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE POPS DUE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. I ALSO INTRODUCED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT MOVING SWIFTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST/TRENDS
WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHANGEABLE BUT MOSTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. WITH
A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. ON
THURSDAY...VFR CONTINUES AS FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO AOB 12 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS INLAND POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI...
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE CONTINUE IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE THIS EVENING WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. IN KEEPING WITH
THE FORECAST AS DESCRIBED IN RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW...EXPECT SEAS WILL DECAY A FOOT INTO THE 2 TO 3
FT RANGE AS A RESULT. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE.

15-20 KT WINDS...2-4 FT SEAS WILL ABATE TO 10-15 KT...2-3 FT
OVERNIGHT. SEAS A COMBINATION OF A MODERATE BUT WANING N-NNE CHOP
RUNNING EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND A BIT OF LONGER PERIOD BACK SWELL
FROM THE NE STORM RUNNING IN LONGER WAVE PERIODS OF 12-13 SECONDS.
SINCE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER INSHORE COMPARED TO
OFFSHORE...SHORTER WAVE PERIODS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT
OFFSHORE...WHILE NEAR-SHORE THE LONGER PERIOD WAVES WILL BE THE
HIGHER WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OVER
THE 0-20 NM WATERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
ON THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LEAVES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST OF THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL SW WIND
WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
FRIDAY WILL BE A GUSTY DAY AS NW WINDS OF AROUND 20 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHEN 3-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE COMMON. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST 1-3 FT THURSDAY...AND 2-4 FT
FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WAVE PERIODS WILL BE QUITE SHORT ON
FRIDAY HOWEVER.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND BE
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COMMENCING. SPEEDS
WILL BE MOSTLY TEN KNOTS OR LESS DURING THIS TIME. A DECENT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS
AND TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INCREASING APPRECIABLY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
WINDS. PROBABLY SEE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK