Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280615 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 215 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MID-WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLING AND A FEW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A SECONDARY AND STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS PARTICULARLY THE 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL VSBY PROJECTION...ALL INDICATE THE CURRENT PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUESDAY HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................. AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...WHILE WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...IT HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A COOL AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ABOUT THE TIME THE SUN SETS. LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP. DESPITE DEWPOINTS PLUNGING INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...A SHALLOW LAYER OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE HAS HUNG OUT ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN HERE AT 3 PM DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 60 IN THE GEORGETOWN VICINITY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE GRAND STRAND BEACHES. THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING IN THE VEERING FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE LAYER SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 500-700 FEET THICK ACROSS THE WILMINGTON AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1200-1500 FT DEPTH ACROSS FLORENCE AND THE PEE DEE REGION. THIS IS PROBABLY THICK ENOUGH TO DEVELOP FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS INLAND LATE TONIGHT. USING THE NAM 975 MB RH GRID AS A GUIDE...I AM FORECASTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG FROM GEORGETOWN AND MYRTLE BEACH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MARION AND FLORENCE INTO HARTSVILLE AND BENNETTSVILLE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS WILMINGTON AND BURGAW THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF MOISTURE HERE MAY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 50-55...COOLEST FROM LAKE WACCAMAW TO BURGAW...AND WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE/STORY THIS PERIOD IS A A LEGITIMATE SHOT AT BREAKING A FEW RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. LOCATION TUE OCT 28 WED OCT 29 WILMINGTON 87/1984 82/1984 FLORENCE 86/1991 84/1974 N. MYRTLE BEACH 83/1991 83/1991 APPEARS BASED ON THE DATA THE BEST SHOT AT MAKING HISTORY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHICH STILL PLACES US IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TIME HEIGHT PLOTS OF RH IMPLY WE MAY SEE PLENTY SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY TO HELP THE CAUSE WITH CLOUDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RIGHT NOW A CONSENSUS OF MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED S AND E OF THE AREA DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS ALREADY IN PLACE AT FIRST LIGHT. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHC/CHC SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY THURSDAY AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH BY THE START OF THE PERIOD BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED. THURSDAY WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TO START BUT DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN AND THE AFTERNOON SHOULD END UP QUITE SEASONABLE. THE FRONT WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS BUT IT APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BRING MUCH CLOUD COVER AND ANOTHER SEASONABLE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ON TAP. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE COLD ADVECTION INTO THE CAROLINAS SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST. SATURDAY STILL LIKELY OFFERS A BREEZY AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 60...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE THERMAL TROUGH ENDS UP RIGHT OVERHEAD AND THERE MAY BE A N TO S GRADIENT IN HIGHS. THIS THERMAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN THAT RADIATION COOLING IS FAVORED SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ALSO THAT THERE MAY BE SOME RECOVERY BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM....WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT. EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE HIGH THIS EVENING WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING NOW WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCING THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. COMBINED SEAS ARE ONLY 1-2 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF A TINY WIND CHOP AND TWO SMALL 10 SECOND SWELL COMPONENTS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...S-SW WINDS THIS PERIOD...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE FIELD SURROUNDING THIS FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR STRONGLY CONTRASTED THUS NO ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED AS WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH PASSAGE. WE MAY SEE GUSTS TO 20 KT HOWEVER AND SEAS UP TO 4 FEET WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AN ADVISORY HOWEVER MAY BE NEEDED THU. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL FEATURE 1-1.5 FT SE WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND S WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 3-5 SECONDS TIED IN WITH LOCAL WINDS. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT TRAVELS THROUGH. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS TAKE OVER ON THURSDAY. THE NORMAL COLD SURGE-INDUCED INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED BUT ITS ONSET WILL BE QUITE GRADUAL AT FIRST. THIS WILL BE MORE REALIZED HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE GRADIENT INCREASES LOCALLY. ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AN EVEN FURTHER INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. WNA GUIDANCE APPEARS QUITE UNDERDONE ON THE RESULTING SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEEMS POSSIBLE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096- 099-109-110. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...DCH/REK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DCH

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