Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 270236 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1036 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MID WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS NEAR THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE JUST OFF THE COAST WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THESE SHOWERS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT ONSHORE AS THEY HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY PUSH WESTWARD AND INTO THE DRIER AIR. AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AND THE COLUMN UNDERGOES FURTHER MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT ONTO THE MORE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BRIEFLY COMING ASHORE BEFORE DISSIPATING. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER FOR MUCH OF THE BEACHES AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN CREEPING HIGHER FROM E TO W AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODIFY IN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL SERVE AS A FLOOR...KEEPING TEMPS OVERNIGHT HIGHER THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS. ALSO...WITH MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUING...WE SHOULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. INLAND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR SUNRISE. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY HIGH CLOUDS...WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE N AND W TONIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MORE IMMEDIATE COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH OFFSHORE/COASTAL SHOWERS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK AMORPHOUS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A STALLED FRONT POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. A LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT IT WILL HAVE NO REAL IMPACT ON LOCAL CONDITIONS. DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SWINGS OFF EASTERN CONUS WHILE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE STAYS GENERALLY EASTERLY. THIS SETUP WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE READINGS BETWEEN BOTH DAYS. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND MODEST INSTABILITY IS INTRODUCED...WITH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE. THE AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE FRONT MAY ACT AS A TRIGGER TO TUESDAYS CONVECTION...ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING PIEDMONT TROUGH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WED AND THU WILL KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY FREE OF PRECIP. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED EACH AFTERNOON BUT DO EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL THEN PUSH INLAND. LIMITED SUPPORT ALOFT AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP COVERAGE IN THE SLIGHT CHANGE RANGE. UNCERTAINTY LINGERS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PREVIOUSLY THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAD BEEN CONSISTENT WITH STALLING THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT STALLING CLOSE TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION AREA WIDE EACH AFTERNOON. COVERAGE INCREASES FOR THE WEEKEND AS 5H RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND DEVELOPING 5H TROUGH CAUSES SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AT TIMES. INCREASED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MORE FAVORABLE MID LEVEL PATTERN PUSHES PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE HIGH CHC RANGE LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 00Z...MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOG. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE PARTICULARLY INLAND EVEN THOUGH RH`S ARE IN THE 30S RIGHT NOW. BUFKIT SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL CHANGE IN HUMIDITIES...AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOK FOR FOG TO START TO SET UP AFTER 07Z...WITH GREATEST INTENSITY FROM 10-11Z. A QUICK BURNOFF IS IN STORE MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED BY 13Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS THROUGH LATE EVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A WEAK 11 SECOND SE SWELL WILL PERSIST. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH...BUT MAY OSCILLATE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD LEADING TO A SLIGHT SLACKING OF THE GRADIENT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST WED INTO THU...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST ON THU. GRADIENT CHANGES LITTLE ON FRI AS WEAK FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST STALLS WEST OF THE COAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE ONSHORE FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...III AVIATION...DL

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