Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 120002 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 802 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING LESS STORMS TO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND A BIT MORE SUNSHINE. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR MIDDLE JULY WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED AND COOLER CONDITIONS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 8 PM FRIDAY...A PUNCH OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS MAKING ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING OUR AREA FROM ACTIVE CONVECTION...ASIDE FROM SHOWERS OVER OUR SC COASTAL INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE COAST. POP VALUES TO REMAIN ISOLATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND EVEN BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES ACROSS OUR FAR INTERIOR ZONES...WITH RAIN FAVORING THE SOUTH COAST AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LATEST NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HOLDS ON TO THE IDEA OF BELOW NORMAL MINIMUMS EARLY SATURDAY AT DAYBREAK...WITH UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS VIRGINIA WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THOUGH INLAND WINDS MAY BECOME STILL. FOR THIS REASON...AND PARTIAL CLEARING...WE HAVE INSERTED PATCHY DENSE FOG INTO THE LATE NIGHT WX GRIDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PROMINENT AS RIDGE TO WEST EXPANDS EASTWARD TO JOIN FORCES WITH ATLANTIC RIDGE...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED DURING SAT. PRECIPITATELY WATER VALUES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES ON SAT AND TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES ON SUN. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE AND ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. THE RISK WILL BE EVEN LESS ON SUN AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THRESHOLD EXCEPT ALONG AND VERY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MORE SUNSHINE AND INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RISE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS INLAND WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S SAT AND THE MID 90S ON SUN. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD MAKE GOOD INLAND PROGRESS AND SO AREAS AT AND NEAR THE COAST WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE BEACHES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID 80S GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW. LOWS WILL BE RIGHT ABOUT WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT FOR MID JULY...LOWER TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A HOT AND DRY MONDAY TO GIVE WAY TO A WET PATTERN AND TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WORK-WEEK. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE AMAZINGLY IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE EXTENSION AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL HUDSON BAY CANADIAN TROF ACROSS THE MAINLAND U.S.. IN FACT...MODELS AGAIN ARE AMAZINGLY SIMILAR IN EXTENDING THIS UPPER TROF TO THE GULF COAST STATES. FOR THE REMAINING PERIOD THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS IE. GFS AND EUROPEAN...BASICALLY KEEP THIS LONGWAVE UPPER TROF POSITIVELY TILTED WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS...ORIENTED NE-SW...REMAINING WEST OF THE ILM CWA. AT THE SFC...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO DROP SOUTHEAST THRU SOUTH EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ILM CWA BY MID-WEEK AND REMAIN IN A QUASI-STATIONARY POSITION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...TEMPS AND POPS WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST AND LOWEST RESPECTIVELY ON MONDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY REVERSE THAT PROCESS TUE THRU MUCH OF THE REMAINING WORK-WEEK. ANY POSSIBLE SEVERE WX ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WHEN THE FRONT MAKES ITS APPROACH. ANY UPPER S/W TROFS ROTATING THRU THIS AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF COULD FURTHER EXACERBATE THE SEVERE THREAT IF THEIR TIMING ACROSS THE FA IS SIMILAR TO THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED VCSH FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR SWEEPING ACROSS OUR CWA...WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR OFFSHORE WATERS. BUT CLEARING SKIES...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 AND CALM WINDS...APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS AT KFLO AND KLBT...WHERE CLEARING WILL OCCUR THE EARLIEST AND GUIDANCE IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG. AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SINCE CLOUD COVER IS DECREASING MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE MODELS DEPICTED EARLIER TODAY. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT E-NE WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 8 PM FRIDAY...STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING LIGHT SE WINDS AND RELATIVELY DOCILE SEAS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL DISSOLVE INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS OF AROUND 2 FEET IN A MIX OF 1-2 FT WIND-WAVES AND SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 7-8 SECONDS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...FAVORED OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE SC INSHORE WATERS. LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED ON SAT AS THE SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND. ENE TO E WINDS WILL VEER TO SE SAT AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL VEER TO S SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND TO SW SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE REGAINS ITS INFLUENCE. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...UP TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 2 FT THROUGH SUN MORNING AND THEN 3 FT SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOOKING AT A SUMMER TIME SSW-SW WIND PATTERN AS SFC PRESSURE RIDGING AND A TIGHTENED GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH...KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE. AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL BACK WINDS SLIGHTLY TO A TRUE S DIRECTION...AND INCREASE OVERALL WIND SPEEDS BY 5 KT. MUCH OF THIS TO OCCUR NEAR SHORE...WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COAST. BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A SFC COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS TO DROP SE-S AND STALL ORIENTED NE-SW ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...OR JUST INLAND. THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE WINDS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THIS STATIONARY FRONT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE FRONT REMAINING JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...KEEPING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE WIND FIELD. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL LIKELY DRIVE THE OVERALL SIGNIFICANT SEAS THRUOUT THE PERIOD...WITH AN UNDERLYING LONGER PERIOD GROUND SWELL BECOMING EVIDENT AS THE FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE CENTERED BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. SCEC AND/OR SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FROM THE COMBINED WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS...AND NOT JUST ONE OF THESE PARAMETERS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...BJR

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