Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 242329 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 729 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry high pressure will build in through early this week with a return to more seasonable temperatures by Tuesday. Rain chances will return with the next cold front Wednesday into Thursday. Dry high pressure will build in behind the cold front into Friday with a warming trend through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Main story for this period is frost/freeze potential overnight. With the parent high well north of the area, winds should stay up enough tonight to preclude either a frost or freeze. In areas that are sufficiently sheltered from the wind, temperatures may get low enough for either, with dewpoints expected to be in the upper 20s, particularly northern tier. Will leave frost advisory as is to account for that possibility. Otherwise, expect mainly clear skies tonight with lows in the mid 30s most areas. Monday will be mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid level ridging will build/move across the region late Monday into Tuesday followed by a slowing moving and weakening system late in the period. There should be no frost or freeze concerns Tuesday morning with lows around 40 or so. There will be some high clouds moving across as a backup. Some further warming will occur through Wednesday with both highs and lows. We continue to advertise lower pops moving in west to east with the system for Wednesday as well. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The system mentioned in the short term period will have basically stalled over the area and with some mid level energy arriving later Thursday...become better organized thus the higher pops. Early iterations show another inch to possibly two inches of rainfall is possible. That`s a wrap for pops in the extended as a dry westerly flow develops. Temperature numbers hover within sight of climatology. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR and mainly SKC through the 00Z TAF period. With sfc high pressure well off to the north, 5-10 kt NE winds expected tonight into Monday. With dry air in place and winds not expected to go light and variable at the terminals, fog is not expected. Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR. Vis/cig restrictions will be possible during early mornings on Tuesday and Wednesday due to weak winds in tandem with increasing low level moisture. Additional restrictions are possible for Wednesday and Thursday as a frontal system slowly traverses the area.
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&& .MARINE...
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Through Monday... NE winds 15 to 20 KT with gusts to 25 KT will slowly diminish to 10 to 15 KT by Monday afternoon. Seas of 5 to 8 FT this afternoon will gradually subside to 4 to 7 FT by Monday afternoon. SCA continues all areas for now. Monday Night through Friday...A modest northeast flow will remain in place through about midday Tuesday transitioning to a southerly/return flow Wednesday. Winds shift offshore later Thursday and with a bit of cold air advection offer up the strongest speeds of the period...20 to 25 knots into early Friday. The higher seas reside here as well with 3- 5 feet otherwise 2-4 feet.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday for NCZ087-096-105. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...ABW SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MAS MARINE...SHK/31

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