Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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000
FXUS62 KILM 242329
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
729 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure will build in through early this
week with a return to more seasonable temperatures by Tuesday.
Rain chances will return with the next cold front Wednesday
into Thursday. Dry high pressure will build in behind the cold
front into Friday with a warming trend through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main story for this period is frost/freeze potential overnight. With
the parent high well north of the area, winds should stay up enough
tonight to preclude either a frost or freeze. In areas that are
sufficiently sheltered from the wind, temperatures may get low
enough for either, with dewpoints expected to be in the upper 20s,
particularly northern tier. Will leave frost advisory as is to
account for that possibility. Otherwise, expect mainly clear skies
tonight with lows in the mid 30s most areas. Monday will be mostly
sunny with highs in the low to mid 60s.
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.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid level ridging will build/move across the region
late Monday into Tuesday followed by a slowing moving and weakening
system late in the period. There should be no frost or freeze
concerns Tuesday morning with lows around 40 or so. There will be
some high clouds moving across as a backup. Some further warming
will occur through Wednesday with both highs and lows. We continue
to advertise lower pops moving in west to east with the system for
Wednesday as well.
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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The system mentioned in the short term period will have
basically stalled over the area and with some mid level energy
arriving later Thursday...become better organized thus the higher
pops. Early iterations show another inch to possibly two inches of
rainfall is possible. That`s a wrap for pops in the extended as a
dry westerly flow develops. Temperature numbers hover within sight
of climatology.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR and mainly SKC through the 00Z TAF period. With sfc high
pressure well off to the north, 5-10 kt NE winds expected
tonight into Monday. With dry air in place and winds not
expected to go light and variable at the terminals, fog is not
expected.
Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR. Vis/cig restrictions will
be possible during early mornings on Tuesday and Wednesday due
to weak winds in tandem with increasing low level moisture.
Additional restrictions are possible for Wednesday and Thursday
as a frontal system slowly traverses the area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Through Monday... NE winds 15 to 20 KT with gusts to 25 KT will
slowly diminish to 10 to 15 KT by Monday afternoon. Seas of 5
to 8 FT this afternoon will gradually subside to 4 to 7 FT by
Monday afternoon. SCA continues all areas for now.
Monday Night through Friday...A modest northeast flow will
remain in place through about midday Tuesday transitioning to a
southerly/return flow Wednesday. Winds shift offshore later
Thursday and with a bit of cold air advection offer up the
strongest speeds of the period...20 to 25 knots into early
Friday. The higher seas reside here as well with 3- 5 feet
otherwise 2-4 feet.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday for
NCZ087-096-105.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...SHK/31