Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 041732 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1232 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S TODAY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AND AN UPPER RIDGE PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR INVADING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 925 AM WEDNESDAY...LOW CLOUDS BREAKING ALLOWING SUNSHINE AND A QUICK WARM-UP ALREADY UNDERWAY. DEEPER INLAND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR A SLOWER PATH TO CLEARING BUT IMMINENT AND HERE IS WHERE THE WARMEST MAXIMUMS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR...UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ANYWHERE NEAR THE BEACHES AS WINDS BLOW ONSHORE ACROSS 45-50 DEGREE WATER. THE COOLEST AND FOGGIEST WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR ALONG SOUTH-FACING BEACHES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY REACH 60 DEGREES WITH DENSE FOG CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FOR THIS REASON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL RUN FOR THE BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT. CONTINUED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A NEAR-SOLID OVERCAST POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT EVEN INLAND. THIS WILL STABILIZE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF WILL RULE THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 2/3RDS OF THE UNITED STATES. SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT...WITH UPPER FLOW FROM THE SW TO START THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHICH STARTS AT THU DAYBREAK. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND EVEN PACIFIC MOISTURE PROVIDED IT DOES NOT SCOUR OUT WHEN CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NEVERTHELESS...THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIER THAN NORMAL MAX TEMPS THU ALONG WITH PARTLY OR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE NORTHERN STREAM...DROPPING ACROSS THE U.S. FROM CANADA...WILL BE PUSHING A SFC COLD/ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THIS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD/ARCTIC FRONT...WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA. THE MAIN SWATH OF PCPN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CFP STARTING LATE MORNING THU...AND CONTINUING THU NITE BEFORE ENDING MIDDAY FRI AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE. NO DRAMATIC SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONT...AND THUS WILL ACTUALLY RELY ON OVERRUNNING BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE VERY SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS PUSHES UNDER THE MILD/WARM AIR ALOFT. TEMPS AFTER FROPA WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY COME LATE THU THRU THU NIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF SOMEWHAT DURING FRI. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OR ROUND OF MIXED WINTRY PCPN DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAYS 74-76 WITHIN THE ILM CWA. THE COLD AIR DEPTH AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE A DETERMINING FACTOR OF WHETHER IP WILL BE INTRODUCED INTO THE PCPN...AND ALSO THE SFC TEMP ITSELF. SREF INDICATES A CHANCE FOR SLEET ALONG WITH FREEZING RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE ILM CWA. WITH A GOOD 2-3 DAYS OF SFC TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...WILL HOLD OFF WITH THE MENTIONING OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXING IN...LET ALONE ANY ACCRETION. IF ANYTHING...A TRACE OF IP MAY OCCUR BEFORE MELTING COME FRIDAY DAYBREAK. AS FOR FRI MAX TEMPS AND SAT MORNING MINS...STAYED CLOSE TO THE HIER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE IE. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE. 850MB PROGGED TEMPS BARELY BREAK 0 DEGREES DURING FRIDAY...AND EVEN STAY ABOVE 0 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF FRI NITE. THIS ILLUSTRATING HOW SHALLOW IN DEPTH THIS SFC BASED ARCTIC AIRMASS IS TO BECOME. EVEN PROGGED 925 MB TEMPS...ALSO HOVER AROUND 0 DEGREES FRI NITE. THE AREA MAY BE SUBJECT TO SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE FRI NITE AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND THE SFC PG RELAXES...ALONG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTH TO 20S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...THE LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA WILL INITIALLY BE GOVERNED BY THE UPPER TROF THAT HAS AMPLIFIED SOMEWHAT ALLOWING THE ARCTIC FRONT FROM EARLY FRIDAY TO PUSH OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS AND ALSO SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SAT INTO SUN...THE FA WILL BE UNDER AN ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL BE MODERATING QUICKLY ALLOWING TEMPS TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL STARTING FROM DAYTIME MAXES DURING SUNDAY. SHOULD BE A PCPN-FREE WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK...WANT TO FLATTEN THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE UPPER TROF PLAGUING THE FA...AND ONCE AGAIN SPLIT THE UPPER FLOW. MODELS WANT TO BRING BACK A MILDER AND MOIST AIRMASS TO THE REGION USING THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO SOURCES. MAINLY THE LATTER...GULF OF MEXICO. MAX/MIN TEMPS TO RECOVER TO CLIMO NORMS THIS PERIOD WITH CLOUDINESS LIKELY LIMITING ITS UPWARD ASCENT NEXT WEEK. WILL INCLUDE MAINLY SILENT 20 POPS BUT AT LEAST TEMPS WILL BE TOO MILD FOR ANY WINTRY WX REGIMES ACROSS THE ILM CWA. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/LIFR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KCRE DUE TO SEA FOG. CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AGAIN TO IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR LATE TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW CIGS AND FOG RETURNS. ON THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ATTM...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE THESE TO AFFECT ANY TERMINALS. MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR WILL CONTINUE AT KCRE TODAY AS SEA FOG PERSISTS...THOUGH WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MVFR POSSIBLE AS PASSING INTERMITTENT LOW CIGS STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE YET AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR AS LOW CIGS AND FOG RETURNS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. ON THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 925 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS INLAND WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS NOW NOTED NEAR THE COAST. DENSE SEA FOG CONTINUES AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE VERY CHILLY WATER TEMPERATURES IS RESULTING IN DENSE FOG. WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...SEE NO REASON WHY THE FOG WILL END...AND AM INCLUDING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING...REMAINING THERE THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONGER WINDS JUST 30-60 OFFSHORE WILL GENERATE A 6-7 SECOND SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...PUSHING TOTAL SEA HEIGHTS UP TO 3-5 FEET. THIS SWELL SHOULD EXCEED ANY LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT WAVE SET. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT THU...WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE TO STRONG SCA THRESHOLDS AT 20 TO 30 KT AFTER ITS PASSAGE DURING THU EVENING AND NIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO DAYTIME FRI BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH ELONGATES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FRI NITE. DIRECTIONS WILL VEER TO THE N TO NE AFTER FROPA. AT THE PEAK OF THE CAA DURING THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...AND COMBINED WITH THE TIGHTENED SFC PG...WIND GUSTS SHOULD BREACH 35+ KT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOCALLY MILDER SSTS...RELATIVELY SPEAKING. IE...THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BE RULED BY LOCALLY PRODUCED AND MERGING WIND DRIVEN WAVES. WILL HAVE A LIMITED FETCH TO WORK WITH...RESULTING IN A DECENT RANGE OF SEAS...LOWEST AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND UP TO 5 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...AND OFF CAPE ROMAINE. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...FINALLY...AND I MEAN FINALLY...A BRIEF REPRIEVE TO THE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS FORECAST FOR THE ILM COASTAL WATERS. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC MODERATES AS IT POSITIONS ITSELF NEARLY OVERHEAD COME DAYTIME SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WINDS TO DROP BELOW 10 KT AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 3 FT...AS A PSEUDO GROUND SWELL FROM THE NE-E BECOMES THE DOMINATE CONTRIBUTOR TO THE OVERALL SIGNIFICANT SEAS. PSEUDO...BECAUSE THE DOMINANT PERIODS EXHIBITED BY THIS SWELL WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 SECONDS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ054-056. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ106-108-110. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...SGL

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