Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261456 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 930 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...IMPRESSIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH MHX AND CHS 12A RAOBS BOTH SHOWING PW VALUES OF A QUARTER INCH. WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE IS PRESENT IS MOSTLY RELEGATED TO THE CIRRUS LEVEL (AS ILLUSTRATED GRAPHICALLY IN COWORKER JDW`S COOL FB POST FROM THIS EARLIER THIS MORNING). THAT SAID THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SUCH QUIET WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BRING SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY MILD WEATHER DESPITE THE LIGHT NE BREEZE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. A DEEP S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND CHC OF PCP HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE SFC FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT ON SAT BUT THE WINDS ALOFT WILL CARRY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR PERTURBATION RIDING UP IN THE SW FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THESE CLOUDS MAKE IT INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. INITIALLY SHOULD SEE FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT RISES INTO EARLY SATURDAY TO PRODUCE WARM TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID 60S MOST PLACES. THE PERTURBATION IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RIDE UP FROM THE GULF IN SW FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOWS BEST CHC OF PCP JUST TO OUR WEST OVER CENTRAL CAROLINAS THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND EVEN FARTHER WEST ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT. BY SUN AFTN EXPECT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH RIDGE HOLDING ON ALOFT LEAVING COLD FRONT WELL WEST STILL AND DECREASING CHC OF PCP AND POSSIBLY SOME SUNSHINE ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT SOME ON SUN AFTN. PCP WATER VALUES START OUT AROUND A HALF INCH SAT MORNING INCREASING UP TO 1.5 INCHES SAT NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISHING TO AROUND AN INCH BY LATE SUN AFTN IN INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING. A STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL AID IN DRYING AND COMBINED WITH WAA WITH PRODUCE WARMER TEMPS UP GREATER THAN 65 MOST PLACES. BY SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. CLOUDS AND PCP WILL KEEP TEMPS BOTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT WELL ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL GET SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AS A VERY BROAD TROUGH ROTATES OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN ALMOST ZONAL FLOW WITH A SLIGHTLY SW TO NE FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY MONDAY WILL GET STRUNG OUT IN THIS ALMOST ZONAL FLOW. IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD DROP JUST SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY BUT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STALLED BEFORE GETTING A PUSH FROM MID TO UPPER TROUGH BY TUES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN WARMER TEMPS...CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT PCP THROUGH MONDAY. ONCE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF BACK TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK A BIT BUT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL OVERRUN SHALLOW COOL AIR TO PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. OVERALL...A CLOUDY AND DAMP LONG TERM FORECAST WITH WARMER TEMPS TO START AND A COOL DOWN FOR MID WEEK...HEADING INTO THE NEW YEAR. MID TO UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF AS TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST WED INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THE SFC THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THIS SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING SUNNIER WEATHER FOR WED AND THURS WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. A WEAK RESULTANT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST ONCE THE TEMPERATURE HITS 57 DEGREES OR SO. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG TOWARD MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN RETURNING SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...GREAT MARINE WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. LOCALLY RESULTING IN LIGHT NE WINDS. NO REAL SWELL ENERGY SO SEAS VERY SMALL...JUST 2 FT OR LESS MOST AREAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. AIR TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD GENERATE ENOUGH TEMP/DENSITY CONTRAST ACROSS THE BEACHES TO CREATE A WEAK SEABREEZE. WE`RE NOT TALKING ABOUT MUCH INCREASE IN WIND SPEED...BUT WIND DIRECTIONS NEARSHORE SHOULD VEER SE BETWEEN NOON AND ABOUT 6 PM. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2 FEET IN A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 7-8 SECONDS...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. A S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP NEAR 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH SUN INTO MON. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP FROM LESS THAN 3 FT ON SAT UP TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. FOR SATURDAY...WNA CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT UP TO 17 SEC LONGER PERIOD NE-E SWELL MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS SHOULD DROP OFF THROUGH SUN. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL GET STRUNG OUT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY AND SHOULD PUSH JUST SOUTH BY TUES. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND AS BOUNDARY MOVES FARTHER SOUTH WITH SW-W WINDS EARLY MONDAY COMING AROUND TO THE N-NE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUES BEHIND FRONT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH TUES INTO MID WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THROUGH THE MID COUNTRY LEAVING N-NE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS. THIS WILL CAUSE A RISE IN SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43

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