Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 302330 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 630 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING DOWN INTO THE MID 40S SO FAR BUT WITH CONTINUED MIXING WE WILL SEE A MORE GRADUAL DECLINE THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. FORECAST GOOD TO GO...NO CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE. EXPECT CLEAR...COLD AND DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL PEEL OFF INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT AS MIXING OFFSETS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER A CLOUDLESS DOME THROUGH EVENING. DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER WILL ALLOW VERY GOOD DROPS TO PREVAIL INTO PRE-DAWN...DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S OVER MOST NE SC AND SE NC LOCATIONS. UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR OUR COASTAL AND ICWW VENUES...AS WIND DIRECTION AFTER 6Z VEERS MORE TO TRUE NORTH. WIND-CHILLS/APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH MINIMUM VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 F BETWEEN 4AM-7AM.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THAT BEING SAID...A DECENT RAIN EVENT IS SLATED TO BEGIN LATE SUNDAY AND PERSIST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM. SATURDAY WILL BY FAR BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS POSITIVE THICKNESS ADVECTION OCCURS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CREATE AMPLE SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM A COLD REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...EVEN WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE AGGRESSIVELY FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BEGIN MOST ADVECTION ALOFT...AND AN OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER...COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...WILL KEEP MINS AROUND SEASONABLE VALUES...A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE DURING SUNDAY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS BENEATH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH THE LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL CREATE LOWERING OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS...AND BY LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. MOISTURE FROM A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CARRIED BY THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND AN INCREASING LLJ WILL PUSH THE CORE OF THETA-E RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE HOW 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FOLLOW THE AREA OF EXPECTED HEAVIER PRECIP WITHIN THE STORM AS IT TRACKS EAST...WHILE ELONGATING AS MORE GULF MOISTURE IS TAPPED INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE CWA...SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE WITHIN THE APPROACH OF THE LFQ OF AN UPPER JET WILL HELP DRIVE LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LIFT IN A FULLY SATURATED COLUMN WITH PWATS OVER THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY-FEBRUARY CREATES A SCENARIO WHERE SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO MONDAY...AND HAVE RAISED POP TO CATEGORICAL. STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND THUS HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE MID 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FEATURE LITTLE DIURNAL VARIATION...AS CLOUDS/RAIN/WARM WINDS HOLD LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THANKS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OUR PLACEMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND THUS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 7AM-1PM MON. QPF RANGES FROM AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH INLAND TO AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR OFF THE COAST JUST AFTER MIDDAY...BRINGING RAPID CLEARING AND MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS...GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...WILL BE REALIZED IN THE MORNING BEFORE CFP. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL PLUMMET INTO THE MID 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER ON TUE. THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK LOOK UNSETTLED...THOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DRIVING FEATURES. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON WED. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE... MOIST OVERRUNNING COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY WED MORNING. NO P-TYPE CONCERNS ATTM AS THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE DRIEST MID-LEVEL AIR RESIDES. BY THE TIME PCPN SPREADS NORTHWARD OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY WED...TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHARPENING JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY WITH ENHANCED LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS/CMC ARE CONSIDERABLY WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ON WED. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE LATE WED INTO THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS FRONT WILL DICTATE HOW CLOSE THE GULF LOW TRACKS TO OUR COASTLINE. HAVE OPTED FOR THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS/CMC DEPICTION THAT TRACKS THE GULF LOW JUST OFFSHORE ON THU. EVEN AS POPS TAPER OFF LATE THU INTO FRI... LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST DURING FRI AS NORTHERLY SFC FLOW IS OVERRUN BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 00Z... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE N AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DECREASE TO AOB 5 KT BY SUNRISE. DESPITE LIGHT WINDS AROUND SUNRISE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF AT LEAST 8 DEGREES OR MORE ENSURE NO FOG DEVELOPMENT. N WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME W-SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SOME INCREASING CI EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE. POSSIBLE RAIN WED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW CONTINUED NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS MOST LOCATIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS BLUSTERY NW-N WINDS TEAR ACROSS THE WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED WAVE GROWTH BUT 22-29 KT GUSTS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BEFORE A DECREASING WIND SPEED TREND INTO PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE ADVISORY AROUND OR JUST BEFORE FIRST LIGHT SATURDAY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...NW WINDS TO START SATURDAY WILL EASE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE WATERS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME JUST LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RISE FROM AROUND 10 KTS EARLY SUNDAY...TO 20-25 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS QUICKLY UP TO 5-9 FT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER BEING JUST 1-2 FT MOST OF SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THE LAST HALF OF SUNDAY. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT AND GUSTS TO 30 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL RUN IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE... BECOMING 4-7 FT AFTER MIDDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN HOURS. N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS MON NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD COME TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT N-NE WINDS 10-15 KT ON TUE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT. EAST WINDS AOB 10 KT ON WED MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS OFFSHORE AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT...POSSIBLY 6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...BJR AVIATION...MRR MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/BJR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.