Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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264 FXUS62 KILM 290113 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 913 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Depression Two will bring increasing rain chances through Tuesday. Some drier air may then filter in by Wednesday and the increased sunshine will yield warmer afternoons. A cold front may approach slowly Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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As of 815 PM Saturday...Main update concerned with a re-distribution of the POPs across the ILM CWA for the remainder of this evening thru the pre-dawn Sun hours. Much of the ILM NC CWA has been pcpn-less today...and this trend has continued into this evening, as illustrated with time lapse of the KLTX 88D reflectivity. Have worked those trends into the POPs realm where low to moderate chance for the ILM NC CWA will exist into the mid and possibly late evening hrs. There-after, into the pre-dawn Sunday hours, pops will be trended upwards to likely and categorical joining the ranks of the ILM SC CWA. The nice tropical plume, via kltx 88D, is spreading north then northwestward as Tropical Storm Bonnie moves northwestward. This plume should affect the ILM NC CWA during the pre-dawn Sun hrs and well into daytime Sunday. Have also re-adjusted the 6 hr qpf fields tonight, mainly across the ILM NC CWA as previously explained. Tweaks to min temps a degree or 2 hier due to the invasion of this tropical air mass under e to se warm moist flow. this includes low temps well inland. Previous..................................................... AS OF 330 PM Saturday...Tropical Depression Two was located about 240 miles south of Myrtle Beach this afternoon and is moving northwest towards the SC coast at 13 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. TD 2 is still forecast to become a weak tropical storm this evening with sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph. By Sunday morning the depression is forecast to be on or near the central SC coast. It looks like the greatest impact from this storm will be from bouts of heavy rainfall as the rain bands move ashore this evening and overnight. Highest rainfall totals are expected over our far SC counties of Georgetown and Williamsburg, where we could see one inch or more total QPF. Otherwise, wind during the near term will not be much of a factor. Greatest winds during the near term will be felt over coastal Georgetown County where Northeast winds will increase to around 15 to 20 kts with gusts to 30 kts by daybreak on Sunday. SPC does highlight a marginal risk for weak tornadoes along the coastal strip, with a 2 percent probability of occurrence.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM Saturday...Short term weather depends upon exact movement and strength of TD Number 2, which is expected to come ashore on the central SC coast Sunday morning as a weak Tropical Storm. See latest advisories for most up to date information on winds and other expected impacts. The greatest impacts are expected to be from heavy rain as a series of rain bands move ashore. Storm totals are expected to average 1 to 3 inches with some places seeing higher amounts. Greatest wind impacts will be along the Georgetown County coastline on Sunday night, where east winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph are possible. The storm is expected to rapidly weaken as it moves ashore, and will then track slowly northeast along the coast of SC and NC. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Saturday...A weakening tropical low, TD 2, will be meandering slowly up the Carolina coast through Thursday. The latest update from the Hurricane Center places the center of TD 2 just south of the tip of Caper Fear on Tues morning and then near Hatteras by Thurs morning. This track should keep local forecast area on the back end of the low with northerly flow over land areas and southerly flow in the off shore waters. This setup should create some enhanced convergence and lift as sea breeze develops each aftn running against the northerly flow. Expect localized deeper convection along this boundary with some periods of heavier rain and also along E-NE portion of low. Overall expect unsettled weather to continue with shift in focus of shwrs/tstms depending on exact track up the coast. Does also look like some drier air will get pulled in around the low and therefore there could be intermittent drier periods. Looking at PWs, values remain up close to 2 inches most of the time through Wed with a diminishing trend through Thurs. Therefore expect cloud cover to decrease through mid week, but still a chance of more localized shwrs and tstms. As system lifts north, expect a deep southerly flow developing by Friday. This will continue to feed plenty of warm and humid air into the area. The ridge aloft through mid week may help prevent any very deep convection but as we head into the weekend, a deep upper trough will head east toward the Carolinas which may help to produce some enhancement and deeper convection over portions of the area. A very humid air mass will remain in place with dewpoint temps up between 65 and 70 degrees most places. This combined with a good amount of clouds will keep lower diurnal swings with overnight lows above normal and day time highs mainly just below normal.
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&& .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 18Z...Latest model runs and Hurricane Center track forecasts suggest as TS Bonnie approaches and moves onshore to the S of the terminals, light rain with bands of embedded heavier showers will occur at the coastal terminals especially KCRE/KMYR tonight, shifting to the inland terminals especially KFLO tomorrow morning. Possible IFR visibilities in the heavier showers due to the small tropical droplet size, but any IFR at the coastal terminals should be brief and have indicated the better likelihood of MVFR. The best chance of sustained IFR should be at KFLO/KLBT overnight. Models suggest precipitation decreasing Sunday but with a good chance of MVFR cigs. Extended Outlook...Unsettle weather through Thur with possible SHRA/isolated TSRA and TEMPO MVFR/IFR conditions. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 815 PM Saturday...Tropical Storm Bonnie making a bee line to the central SC Coast between Charleston and Beaufort. Time line of Bonnie moving onshore will occur late in the pre-dawn Sunday hours to several hrs after daybreak Sun. The outline of Bonnie on the sfc pressure fields will result in e to se winds at 15 to 25 kt north of Little River Inlet and se to s 20 to 35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt south of the Inlet. Highest winds will occur south of Murrells Inlet, closer to the center of Bonnie. Significant seas will build to 4 to 7 ft north of Little River Inlet, and 6 to 9 ft south of the Inlet. Highest seas will also occur south of Murrells Inlet. Dominating periods will range from 6 to 8 seconds. previous......................................................... AS OF 330 PM Saturday...Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for our SC waters with Small Craft Advisories in effect for our NC waters. Winds and seas at this point have not reached these criteria, but conditions are expected to gradually deteriorate as Tropical Depression Number 2 nears the coast of central SC and strengthens into a Tropical Storm. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM Saturday...Tropical Storm Warnings will be in effect for our SC waters with Small Craft Advisories in effect for our NC waters through at least the daylight hours of Sunday. The Tropical Storm may be over the coast by Sunday morning, where it will turn northeast and weaken while tracking along the SC and NC coastlines. See latest advisories and warning for the most updated information on this storm. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Winds will be highly dependent on track on TD 2 or remnant low which will meander up the Carolina coast through Thursday. Latest NHC forecast places the center of the low just south of the tip of Cape Fear on Tues morning and then near Hatteras by Thurs morning. This should keep an off shore W-NW or N flow on back end of low over most waters Tues and Wed with a more southerly flow on eastern edge. Expect winds to remain on the lighter side less than 15 kts for the most part, but the on shore push on the eastern edge of storm could keep seas up near 3 to 5 ft through Tues before slowly subsiding through Wed into Thurs. Once TD2 lifts north late Wed into Thurs, the winds will begin to shift around to the south through late Thurs into Fri. Overall expect some gusty shwrs and possible variable winds and seas as low moves north over the NC coastal waters.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ053>056. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for SCZ054-056. NC...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for NCZ106-108- 110. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...DCH/REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MRR

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