Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 201829 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 229 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY PUSHING COLD FRONT OFF SHORE BY LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING A RETURN IN HUMIDITY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT WAS DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. FAIRLY WELL DEFINED WHEN VIEWING VISIBLE SATELLITE WITH CU BUILDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY IN MORE MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS. LARGE DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON EITHER SIDE OF FRONT...DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL NC DOWN BELOW 60 WHILE HEADING SOUTH DEWPOINTS UP NEAR 70. OVERALL NOT A HUGE CHANGE IN AIR MASS AS CAA IS LACKING WITH MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING BOUNDARY TO MEANDER OVER SOUTH CAROLINAS JUST SOUTH OR NEAR LOCAL FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE UP TO THE MID 80S IN DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH AND UP AROUND 90 OVER MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ASIDE FROM A PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE LUMBERTON AREA...BETTER SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP A GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DOMINATE THE FLOW WITH ON SHORE WINDS. THIS WILL HELP BRING MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA AND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED PULSE TYPE CONVECTION. ANOTHER FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG WEAKENING FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL COMBINE WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND AND THE LINGERING FRONT OVER COASTAL SC TO PRODUCE SOME STORMS...MAINLY OVER GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES AND ALONG INTERIOR OF COASTAL COUNTIES UP TO CAPE FEAR. THE STEERING FLOW IS OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 KT AND WILL PUSH ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP EAST TOWARD THE COAST. ONCE HEATING OF THE DAY CUTS OFF THIS EVENING THE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL DISSIPATE FOR THE MOST PART. A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS SPINNING UP A SFC LOW WHICH WILL RIDE EAST TOWARD THE MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BACKING OF WINDS TO THE S-SW OVER EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIFTING BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH. BEST CONVERGENCE AND PCP WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT IN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN WEST-NORTHWEST OF AREA BUT MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS WINDS BECOME MORE ON SHORE AND SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE ON SHORE. IT REMAIN MILD FROM MID 60S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 70 COASTAL ZONES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH AH H5 TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL SWEEP THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OUT TO SEA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FAIR WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S NORTHERN TIER. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS AREA WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY TO MID 80S TO AROUND 90 TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN TO THE AREA AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS MANY OF THE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE SUBTLE AS WE HEAD INTO AN EARLY SUMMER PATTERN. WITH ALL THE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THINK THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES DID HAVE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN SO THEY COULD GET INTO THE ACT ALSO. BRIEF ROUNDS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. LOOK FOR THE CONVECTION TO DIE DOWN BY EVENING...HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING AS YET ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WEAKENING FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF LOCAL WATERS. GRADIENT FLOW REMAINS VERY WEAK ALLOWING THE SEA BREEZE TO DOMINATE THE WINDS NEAR SHORE...KEEPING ONSHORE AND SLIGHTLY GUSTIER WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST...LESS THAN 10 KTS MOST WATERS. SEAS BASICALLY LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH EXPECT A SLIGHT UPTICK AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE S-SW AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT TOWARD MORNING AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT THURSDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BE 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT SATURDAY WHICH WILL VEER TO THE SE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS ARE ON TAP FOR THE PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...RAN AVIATION...RGZ/DL

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