Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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164 FXUS62 KILM 272308 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 708 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm late summer conditions will prevail through the weekend. The chance of showers will increase as well, as moisture from the tropics moves across the area early next week. A strong cold front is expected to move across the region late this week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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As of 630 PM Saturday...Latest 88D radar depicts a westward moving of a cluster of thunderstorms across the NW portions of the ILM CWA. Extrapolating this activity thru sunset, takes it out of the ILM CWA by sunset. This will leave mainly popcorn type showers and isolated thunderstorms which will decay especially with the loss of the days insolation. During the remainder of the evening and overnight, will see mostly clear skies near the coast and a slow scouring of the convective debris clouds once the pcpn activity ends. Very minor tweak to the overnight lows, with 70 to 75 degree readings inland, increasing to the 75 to 79 range for the coastal counties. Previous....................................................... As of 315 PM Saturday...Analysis of todays sounding data and latest guidance shows convection will be limited today due to very dry air and weak lapse rates aloft, a marginally unstable column and strong upper ridging. Expecting only isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening as a result, mainly away from the coast, with no severe weather likely. This activity will move ahead of a slowly advancing and weak cold front which is the only substantial trigger we will see today for convection. For tonight, surface high pressure to the north will continue to push the aforementioned cold front south towards the forecast area as it further weakens and dissipates. There will be little to no impact from this feature overnight, with no weather and only a subtle wind shift to the NE assuming the front makes it this far south. Guidance assumes that it will, with some post frontal stratus in the early morning hours. Model consensus gives us minimum temperatures in the mid 70s tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Saturday...The remnants of long-dead Fiona, now manifesting itself as a loosely organized low with some tropical features, is forecast to drift slowly west towards the local area through the period as either a tropical-like wave or a weak low pressure system. Due to the weakness of this feature, its slow westward movement and poor prospects for development it is expected that there will be little to no impact on the local area during the short term. We will see a gradual return of deep moisture through the period and improved chances for mainly diurnal convection. Sunday looks to be the better day for rain chances as subsidence and dry air to the west of the aforementioned system will help suppress convection. Daytime temperatures will be seasonal or even a little below depending upon extent of cloud cover. Nighttime temperatures will remain a bit above normal with dewpoints remaining elevated in the lower to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 PM Saturday...Uncertainty is the theme for the extended as several components namely tropical or possible tropical entities are poised to affect the area. First, the moisture and system moving across the Caribbean may shift to the north and west and link up with yet another system, the remants of Fiona which are forecast to move due east with possible redevelopment. A mid level low churning off the southeast coast will be modulating the moisture for the most part. Usually with systems similar to these, the moisture remains mostly confined to the eastern half of the system as continental air is just too much to overcome with weak advection. Overall the strategy of chance to isolated pops for Tuesday and Wednesday looks good with higher values along the coast. The end of the period is suddenly looking a bit messy as well. The mid level trough that pushes a front through the area Friday and Saturday looks somewhat weaker and mid level drying remains to the north. I have incrementally increased pops and cloud cover to address. Temperature forecast is at the mercy of the moisture and is low confidence as well but didn`t make wholesale changes from the previous package. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 18Z...High confidence in VFR through tonight other than some potential short duration vsby restrictions in tstms inland this evening. Stratus is possible overnight. A weak back door type cold front is slowly shifting southward this aftn, and will weaken as it drops across the CWA tonight. This front is the driver for some showers/tstms to the north, and as it pushes southward a few of these are expected to approach the inland terminals. Have included VCTS, but not enough confidence in coverage or timing for a TEMPO or any restrictions attm. Coastal terminals are expected to remain dry today. Winds through the evening will be generally from the E/SE around 10 kts. As the front pushes across the area tonight, winds will return to the NE at around 5 kts, with subtle increase late in the overnight possible. This will likely prevent much in the way of fog, but soundings suggest stratus is possible, mostly likely at LBT, which is more typical with a setup like this. Some fog is possible at FLO where the front will be slow to drop through. Any stratus will lift after daybreak Sunday with VFR returning under continued light NE winds. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Increasing chance of TEMPO sub VFR each day as tropical moisture/shower potential increases through Tuesday. VFR Wed/Thu. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 PM Saturday...High pressure will re-establish its ridging from the NE states tonight. This will result in east winds around 5 kt becoming east to northeast around 10 kt toward morning. Exception is nearshore thru the mid to late evening hrs, where the sea breeze has produced a fading e to se wind at 10 to 15 kt. Have backed down on the pcpn coverage to isolated and that will mainly occur during the pre- dawn Sunday hours. Significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft which have mainly been a function of a 2 to 4 foot swell at 9 second periods mainly from the remnants of Fiona. This will continue thru the overnight with wind-driven waves having little input, other then a small chop on top of the swell. Previous...................................................... As of 315 PM Saturday...High pressure to the north will push down a weak and dissipating front south towards the waters overnight. There will be little to no impact from this feature, with no weather and a negligible wind shift. We can expect gradually increasing long-period swell from distant tropical systems, but seas will overall remain in their present 3 to 4 ft range. East winds will maintain at around 10 kts or so through the period. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Saturday...The remnants of long-dead Fiona, now manifesting itself as a loosely organized low with some tropical features, is forecast to drift slowly west towards the waters through the period as either a tropical-like wave or a weak low pressure system. Due to the weakness of this feature, its slow westward movement and poor prospects for development it is expected that there will be little impact upon the local waters. Expect NE to E winds in the 10 to 15 kt range through the short term. Seas will stay mainly in the 3 or 4 ft range, although some 5 footers over our outer waters are possible due to the contribution of swell energy from distant yet slowly strengthening TS Gaston. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 PM Saturday...With all that may be going on the winds will be somewhat benign. For Tuesday and into early Wednesday winds will be mostly from the northeast and ten knots or less. A weak pattern later Wednesday will be followed by a possible frontal passage Thursday with a shift to northwest winds. Not much in the way of CAA with the front so speeds remain ten knots or less. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet but longer period swell may continue to warrant some rip current hazards.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH/REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RJD/Jdw

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