Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 301036 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 636 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION IS OFF THE COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST. 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF STRATUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SURFACE OBS SHOW A LARGE RANGE IN VISIBILITIES. PATCHY FOG AND SCT-V-BKN STRATUS WILL PERSIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE LAST OF THE -RA/DZ IS EXITING THE COAST WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. POCKETS OF STRATO-CUMULUS WILL PERSIST A WHILE LONGER...WHILE STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG ARE A BETTER BET FARTHER INLAND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE AREAS WHERE SKIES ALREADY CLEARED AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. ANY STRATUS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES INTO THE LOWER COLUMN RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80F MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWS AROUND 60 INLAND...TO THE LOWER 60S AT THE COAST. EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP INLAND AGAIN TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK WED THROUGH THURS. AT THE SAME TIME A FLAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHARPEN AS RIDGE BUILDS UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE E-SE AND LIGHTENING UP AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH TIME. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN AN INCH MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY DUE TO A LITTLE IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATER ON WED AND SOME CU DEVELOPMENT IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE BOTH AFTERNOONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPS AS RIDGE BUILDS AND HEIGHTS RISE ALONG WITH EARLY FALL SUNSHINE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION...LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER AT THE BEACHES WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN THEIR SEASONAL DROP...NOW IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH MID- UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THIS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS THROUGH THE DAY. PCP WATER VALUES AS LOW AS AN INCH FRI MORNING WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES BY AFTN OVER INLAND AREAS AS LLJ UP TO 30 KTS PROVIDES A DECENT FEED OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS INLAND BY AFTN AND REACHING THE COAST BY EVENING AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING FRONT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TROUGH DOES BECOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REACHING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS MAY DELAY THE CLEARING ON SATURDAY BUT OVERALL EXPECT A DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW TO PRODUCE SOME EXCEPTIONAL FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINT TEMPS MAY END UP BELOW 50 DEGREES BY SUNDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL ALLOW LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS WITH COOL START TO THE MORNINGS SUN AND MON AND TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 70S MOST PLACES FOR AFTN HIGHS WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE. PCP WATER VALUES WILL PLUMMET TO A HALF INCH OR LESS BY SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S SUN AND MON. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...THE -RA FROM EARLIER TONIGHT HAS MOSTLY PUSHED OFFSHORE...AND THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND OFF THE COAST. SURFACE OBS INDICATE FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AND THE MID LEVEL CIGS ARE NO MORE. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED TEMPO IFR VSBYS FOR KLBT/KFLO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND FOLLOWS SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOWING FOG/STRATUS EXPANDING INLAND AFTER 09Z. STILL THINK THE DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FOG...BUT SOME TEMPO IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY DAYBREAK. WILL KEEP SCT 500 FT STRATUS AT THE COAST ATTM. DURING THE DAY... DRIER AIR BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KT DURING THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT/VRB AFTER 00Z WED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS ARE LIKELY AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST. SEAS ARE LIKELY 3-5 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST TO 2 FT NEAR SHORE. PREVIOUS FORECAST...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED SOUTH...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST...OF THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MORE OF A FACTOR ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS ALL WATERS BY 00Z WED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE LOWEST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE BRUNSWICK WATERS WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE OFFSHORE. LIKEWISE...EXPECT SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTER FRYING PAN SHOALS WATERS WITH SHORTER PERIOD SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT IN A RELAXED GRADIENT..STARTING OUT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND VEERING AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE AND EVENTUALLY SE BY FRI MORNING AS THE HIGH MIGRATES EASTWARD WITH TIME. NEAR SHORE WINDS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA BREEZE CAUSING A SLIGHT SPIKE IN WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS. SEAS WILL BASICALLY BE 3 FT OR LESS...SUBSIDING A BIT FROM WED TO THURS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL START THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE. AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SE WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY FRI EVE. THIS WILL KICK SEAS UP FROM AROUND 2 FT EARLY FRI TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT MORNING. MAY RUN INTO A FEW HOURS OF SCA CONDITIONS IN STRONGEST ON SHORE PUSH RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING THE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW REMAINING UP TO 15 KTS INITIALLY BUT LIGHTENING UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE OFF SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHER SEAS WELL OFF SHORE BY LATE SATURDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT LOCAL WATERS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SAT EVENING. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...BJR/SRP

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