Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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272 FXUS62 KILM 240722 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 322 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build over the region for the next several days. Warm and dry conditions are expected through mid week with temperatures well above normal Wednesday and Thursday. Weak low pressure originating from the Bahamas will bring a showery pattern through the weekend into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 3 AM Tuesday...Transition day as low pressure NE of the area releases its hold on low level winds...allowing high pressure to bump into the area as heights aloft snap back into place. Late May sunshine and residual H9-H8 moisture will allow cumulus formation this afternoon and at best an isolated shower over interior Pender county between 4-5 pm. A decent count on sunshine minutes today and maximums approaching near to slightly below normal for late May. Fair this evening in low level return wind flow coupled with good radiational heat escape under mostly clear skies...will result minimums of 58-63 by daybreak Wednesday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 3 AM Wednesday...Chief headline is the heat switch gets flipped to the `on` position Wed/Thu with middle and upper 80s across the board and toastiest inland away from marine cooling. Deep layered and overwhelming aridness will put the kabash on showers or TSTMS although enough H9-H8 moisture appears in place for a few afternoon cumulus. Resumption of SW return flow will limit overnight cooling with low and middle 60s at daybreaks.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 3 AM Tuesday...Uncertainty during the period remains quite high due to possible development of hybrid low pressure off the southeast coast late in the week. The GFS has been consistent in developing this feature the last few days with the CMC and ECMWF recently jumping on board. So while the medium range guidance is in agreement that a low or, at the very least, a trough will exist off the southeast coast at the start of the period the location of this feature varies significantly, as does its track. The medium range guidance does agree on the break down of the surface and mid level ridging later Fri with increasing tropical moisture resulting in an increase in cloud cover and shower chances for the weekend. Regardless of whether or not the low develops it certainly appears there will be an extended period of deep southwest flow over the southeast. This will persist through the end of the period and the resulting abundance of deep moisture is likely to produce daily showers and thunderstorms. Increased cloud cover along with afternoon showers and thunderstorms as well as onshore flow will keep highs near to slightly below climo but hold lows a little above climo.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 06Z...Patchy MVFR mist/fog til 12z then VFR through the valid TAF cycle. Light to calm winds will become W-SW today 4-8 kt. Coastal terminal can expected 20012kt between 18z-22z due to the sea breeze influence. Winds light to calm aft 1z-2z. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected...until the weekend when MVFR cigs are possible in scattered to numerous showers. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...Transition day as low pressure NE of the area releases its hold on low level winds...allowing marine winds to become SW this afternoon...up to 15 kt in the late afternoon as the sea breeze adds a few knots...resuming SW 10 kt tonight. Seas 2 ft every 9 seconds with light wind chop so very manageable and no TSTMS or marine weather hazards expected through daybreak Wed. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...Early summer SW wind pattern prevails this period with friendly marine conditions with no TSTMS...and sea heights around 2 feet in 8-9 second intervals. May see gusts to 18 kt inshore between 2pm-6pm due to the sea breeze enhancement but overall wind speeds generally less than 15 kt this period...look out fish. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...Weakening/retreating Bermuda High and potential low pressure system taking shape near the Bahamas will produce southeast flow across the waters Fri, becoming more easterly for Sat. Gradient remains on the weak side through the period with speeds on the low side of the 10 to 15 kt range. Seas will be on an increasing trend through the period, building from around 2 ft Fri morning to 3 to 5 ft late Sat. Worth noting there is potential for higher seas should low pressure take shape near the Bahamas late in the week.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...III AVIATION...RAN/MJC

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