Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 200220 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1020 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry weather will continue through Thursday. A strong cold front will move through Friday. This will bring significant cooling over the weekend, knocking temperatures down in the 40s for lows with highs only in the 60s. A slight warming trend is expected Monday before a secondary and dry cold front sweeps off the coast Monday evening. Fair conditions are expected into the middle of next week with near normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 10 PM Wednesday...Going forecast looks good. Previous discussion from 3 PM follows. Overnight, skies will be mostly clear. The BUFR soundings are showing a weak low-level jet of 10 to 15 knots overnight. This will help produce scattered stratus clouds overnight but with the light winds and plentiful surface moisture provided by Matthew patchy dense fog is expected overnight. Temperatures are expected to fall into the lower 60s at the coast and upper 50s to around 60 inland. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...Thursday will begin with patchy dense fog dissipating and sunny skies returning to the area. The day will warm up nicely ahead of a cold front that will be crossing the area on Friday. Maximum temperatures will reach into the middle 80s and lows thursday night will drop into the lower 60s with no precipitation expected. On Friday, the changes begin as sharp mid and upper-level trough pushes a cold front through our area. Both deterministic models are showing a anafront structure of precipitation. The front is progged to arrive 15 to 18 utc with the precipitation trailing behind. The depth of the moisture is rather limited in vertical and temporal scale so will go with a 20 to 30% chance of showers. Rainfall amounts are expected to be very light so there will be no increased threat of flooding. Also, will include an isolated thunderstorm but confidence on seeing any lightning is low. After the cold front passed through the region cold air advection will bring the coolest temperatures of the season. High temperatures will start out in the mid to upper 70s on Friday and the temperatures will plummet in to the mid to upper 40s by Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...Primary headlines this period highlights a cool weekend, ensued by reinforcement of continentally dry air early next week. NO precipitation is expected Saturday through Wednesday. The `snap-back` of thickness/heights Saturday as a highly amplified upper wave rotates into New England will bolster surface high pressure into the Carolinas this weekend. Minimums entrenched well into the 40s early SAT/SUN with maximums holding below 70 both days west of the ICW. Unlimited sunshine appears on tap this active fall weekend. A clipper wave will inject an additional dose of dry and cool air late Monday, allowing high pressure to be king locally. Hence we are anticipating fair and seasonably cool mornings, with 25 degree warm-ups into afternoon of TUE/WED. The chilliest readings daybreak Sunday, and GFSX MOS guidance crunching out 38 degrees early Sunday at LBT. Did not go quite this cold but a sure-fire reminder that seasonal forces are unstoppable. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 00Z...A surface ridge of high pressure will remain across the area tonight. Light winds within this ridge should allow good radiational cooling to take place, and given a thin layer of moisture ranging from 400 feet deep inland to around 1000 feet deep at the coast there should be fog developing late. The best potential for fog appears to be at the coastal airports Wilmington (ILM) and North Myrtle Beach (CRE) where temporary excursions into IFR look very likely. Temporary MVFR to IFR conditions are expected elsewhere. After 13z Thursday VFR conditions should redevelop with light east to southeast winds. Extended Outlook...Potential for brief MVFR conditions in -SHRA and clouds, especially late in the day on Friday. Otherwise, expect VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10 PM Wednesday...Light south to southeast winds will become east tonight at speeds less than 10 knots. Seas will run 2 ft. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...The high pressure ridge will break down as a cold front will quickly push across the coastal waters on Friday. With this frontal passage winds will shift to the northwest and speeds will increase to 15 to 20 knots. seas are expect to build to 4to 6 feet especially between 15 and 20 miles off the coast to 4 to 6 feet; therefore, a small craft advisory may be require on Friday. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...Blustery NW winds and choppy seas offshore may require that an `Advisory` for small craft initiated sometime Friday, be extended into early Saturday, but winds will ease through the day and the advisory will likely be dropped by midday Saturday. The offshore flow this weekend will result in notably larger sea heights well offshore compared to inshore. By Sunday NW winds 13 KT or less expected. A dry frontal passage late Monday will bring SW-WSW winds 15 KT or less Monday. No TSTMS or PCPN or restrictions to visibility expected this period. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 3 PM Wednesday...The waters levels again rose to moderate flooding, 6.9 feet MLLW, downtown on the Cape Fear River just before 1 pm. This is about 1/3 of a foot lower than yesterday and is mainly related to the tidal anomalies decreasing as we move farther away from the new moon. Overnight, at the next high tide, the water level is expected to peak around 6.2 feet MLLW at 1:21 AM. This level will put the flooding into minor flooding category thus will raise an advisory once the water level from the afternoon tides have decreased. Note: Moderate coastal flooding (a warning-level event) is defined as 6.7 feet MLLW or higher at the Wilmington gauge. Minor coastal flooding (an advisory-level event) is defined between 5.5 ft MLLW and less than 6.7 feet MLLW. Tide forecast/anomaly analysis: Downtown Wilmington High Tides Tide + Anom = Total Water Level Thursday 1:21 AM 4.66 + 1.6 = 6.26 feet MLLW Thursday 1:55 pm 5.14 + 1.4 = 6.54 feet MLLW && .EQUIPMENT... As of 730 PM Wednesday...The ASOS at the Lumberton, NC airport (KLBT) has no power and the emergency generator which had maintained power since Hurricane Matthew has given out. Observations and climate data from Lumberton will remain missing until power can be restored. Our technicians have set up an emergency cell phone link to from our office to the Georgetown NOAA weather radio transmitter site. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...RAN SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...MJC/RGZ AVIATION...TRA EQUIPMENT...TRA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.