Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 011424 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1024 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT WILL WAVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND DURING ALL OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...WITH THE MORNING UPDATE I HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT TO REPRESENT THE OVERCAST SHIELD HOVERING JUST ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE DUE TO GOOD DIFLUENCE ALOFT. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST NAM ARE STILL ADVERTISING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND ARCHING SOUTHWEST INTO WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY. NO CHANGES TO THE POPS OR TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STUBBORN STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST LOW-CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY DRY. THIS FRONT IS STALLED BENEATH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BUT IS PRETTY FLAT LOCALLY AND THUS IS UNABLE TO ADVECT IT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS BEGINS TO BULGE NE AND IT IS THIS DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO FINALLY DISSIPATE. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SUNDAY...AND THE INHERITED SCHC ALONG THE COAST ONLY WILL REMAIN WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. TOWARDS I-95...A VERY SHARP PWAT GRADIENT WILL EXIST WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THAT AREA...AND THUS NO POP IS FORECAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ON MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY REASON FOR THIS MUST BE A VORT MAX PROGGED TO SWING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN...BUT WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE STILL BELIEVE THIS IS OVERDONE. WILL DROP POP TO SCHC FROM THE INHERITED LOW-CHC FOR MONDAY...WITH AGAIN THE COASTAL THIRD OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED. TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR HIGHS...AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND AS WARM AS 95 WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL 72-76 BOTH NIGHTS...WARMEST AT THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL TRANSITION TO FLAT RIDGING FROM THE ARKLATEX THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS CREATES DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TUE/WED...ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOOKS TOO WARM WITH ITS EXTREME HEAT AND WILL FAVOR THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS. THE VERY DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD THOUGH. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO RE- AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST...LED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OH VLY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND INTO OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU/FRI...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A STATIONARY FRONT MARKED BY SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEW POINTS WAS LOCATED NEAR A KFLO/KLBT LINE. IT WAS VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES AT KFLO/KLBT EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE COASTAL TERMINALS HAD VFR CIGS/PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS. ANY MVFR VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13Z. HIGH RESOLUTION PROGS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY ONSHORE. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE SINCE THERE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIPITATION AREA. THIS SUBSIDENCE SUBSIDES BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY COARSER MODELS. BUT DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD MOVE IN BY THEN KEEPING ANY DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-SW BY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND NE AT KFLO/KLBT. VFR THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME TEMPO BR POSSIBLE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE. ESSENTIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS WEAK...TO BE EXPECTED ON THIS FIRST DAY OF AUGUST. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE DISSIPATING JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY...SO AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE LATE SUNDAY BUT ONLY AT AROUND 10 KT. AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ON MONDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SUNDAY...A LONG PERIOD (11 SEC) SE SWELL WILL EXIST IN THE SPECTRUM WITH A 2-3 FT AMPLITUDE...LIKELY FROM THE LONG FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO BE 3-4 FT SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...THIS SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVE TO DRIVE SEAS TO 4-5 FT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE SO THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN...AND WINDS WILL BE SW AT 10-15 KT WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION BOTH DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A 5-6 SEC WIND WAVE...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2 FT SE SWELL TO CREATE 3-4 FT SEAS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS 1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME THIS LUNAR CYCLE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD

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