Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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677 FXUS62 KILM 180238 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 938 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure to our south will move offshore tonight and Saturday. An upper level disturbance may bring some light showers Saturday night. Warmer temperatures during the weekend should last through next week. Dry weather most of next week may turn wetter late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 930 PM Friday...Surface high pressure centered over the northern Bahamas will move eastward out toward 70 degrees W by daybreak Saturday. Upper level low pressure over southeastern Oklahoma will move eastward into the Ozarks by morning. High- level moisture increasing out ahead of this system has already spread a few thin cirrus into the central and eastern Carolinas, and this trend should accelerate around daybreak Saturday as deeper moisture down to 500 mb arrives. None of this should have much impact on radiational cooling or our low temperatures tonight. Boundary layer winds are light away from the beaches and winds have even decoupled in a couple of spots like Lumberton and Whiteville. Most locations should see temperatures reach the lower to middle 40s late tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Friday...An area of low pressure, surface and aloft, will be positioned across the Ark-La-Tex at the start of the period with a shortwave ridge traversing the Carolinas. The southern stream system to our W will move toward the NE as the ridge lifts out Sat, but in a weakening state. We will see clouds increase ahead of this feature. A short-lived, but deepening and strengthening SW flow will struggle to transport moisture northward. However, by later Sat afternoon and Sat night, the depth of moisture does adequately increase and can`t rule out isolated showers, but rainfall amounts will be on the order of only a few hundreths where rain does fall. The upper trough and weak surface reflection will move off the coast Sunday morning, ending the risk for any light precipitation, shifting light SW winds to NW and bringing a clearing trend. Weak high pressure will follow on Sun. Highs will be in the lower 70s both days, except along the immediate coast where mid and upper 60s will be most common. There could be some mid 70s across the extreme southern portions of the Forecast Area away from the cooling influences of the Ocean. Lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s Sat night and perhaps a degree or two lower Sun night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 240 PM Friday...A closed mid level cyclone will move slowly across the southern tier of the U.S. basically through most of the extended period. There are indications this system will move a bit to the north and maybe just off the North Carolina coast by next Friday in a much weakened state. At the surface high pressure will be in place centered over the northeast for most of the period. Normally this is cool scenario for the area but with ridging aloft extending to the southeast not necessarily so this time around. Highs will be mostly in the 70s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. We continue to advertise low chance pops late in the period as the mid level system spawns a coastal trough which may lead to some unsettled conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 00Z...VFR expected through the forecast period. Light southwest flow overnight with possible ground fog around sunrise. Southwest flow will increase through the day on Saturday. A weak and diffuse upper low will approach the region by Saturday evening, with some isolated/scattered convection possible. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Possible MVFR/IFR conditions in isolated showers Sat night thru early Sun due to the passage of a weak low pressure system and cold front. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 PM Friday...High pressure over the northern Bahamas is moving eastward and out to sea. A modest pressure gradient exists on the north and west side of this high, sufficient to maintain 10-15 knot winds overnight. Windier conditions earlier today have continued in a stripe out toward the Frying Pan Shoals buoy this evening, and this added wind energy has worked up the sea state considerably more than earlier models indicated. Seas at both the Frying Pan Shoals buoy and at the Harbor buoy south of Southport are 4 feet at last check. Winds are probably not high enough to sustain seas this large for much longer, but a large area of 3 foot seas can be expected in the 5-20 mile offshore winds overnight. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Friday...SW winds will continue on Sat and Sat eve ahead of a weakening southern stream system. Then in the wake of this system, the wind direction will shift to the NW overnight Sat with NW winds persisting during Sun before veering to N Sun night as weak high pressure moves further E. Strongest winds this period will be up to 10 to 15 kt. Seas will be up to 2 to 3 ft tonight, otherwise 2 ft or less. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 240 PM Friday...Expect mostly northeast winds through the period as high pressure, anchored well off to the northeast is the main driver of the winds. Speeds will be very modest hovering around ten knots or so. By Wednesday the system becomes very diffuse and winds gain a southeast component mainly driven by the sea breeze. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet early dropping to 1-3 feet as time progresses. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DL MARINE...

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