Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 272341 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 741 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will expand across the Carolinas, maintaining uncomfortable levels of heat and humidity this week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening. The chances increase heading into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 624 PM Wednesday...One of a hand-full of days when asphalt layers and roofers hope for rain, as blistering maximum apparent temperatures seared the landscape and all exposed surfaces. Even the normally cooling sea breeze played cruel tricks today, only boosting heat indices as dewpoints bumped upward despite a fall in air temperature through it`s passage. `Feel-like` temps will fall through the lower 100s and 90s well into evening, and min temperatures may not drop below 80 across numerous coastal and coastal interior locations. The longest streak of 80 degree or higher minimums at ILM is 3 and this ended on Augusts 5th 1980. This consecutive record string will probably not be broken as guidance suggest upper 70s the next several days but something to watch through sweated brows. Will maintain the pop free forecast overnight as the upper ridge in vapor movies can be seen pumping in a feed of more heat aloft. This hour both the air and water temperature at Frying Pan shoals buoy were matching at 85, so a grillout on the boat would represent cool outdoor dining if compared to a backyard right now. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...Heat wave not only continues but appears to peak in intensity on Thursday. Most areas well into the upper 90s and a few spots inland likely to hit 100. No relief from the sea breeze save for south facing Brunswick County, as it will remain pinned to the coast elsewhere. Solid Heat Advisory criteria with dewpoint forecast now critical to who sees Heat Warning criteria and for how long. Steeper hydrolapse rates are forecast and thus some lower values may mix down to the surface. The exception may be along the coastal counties where some slightly higher dewpoints remain intact at the surface. A few spots could hit a heat index of 110 but not for long enough or over enough real estate to justify an Excessive Heat Watch at this time. An upper impulse passes by on Friday leading to slight height falls. This will slightly temper the heat and yield about 20 percent rain chances over roughly the northern 2/3 of the CWA. Heat indices will still be solidly in advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...Weak 5h troughing over the KY/TN valleys this weekend will migrate off the coast for the middle of next week. The resulting increase in moisture and mid level cooling will lead to an increase in diurnal shower and thunderstorm coverage through the period. The main surface features and convective triggers will continue to be the Piedmont trough and the sea breeze with outflow from the initial storms spawning others. Precipitable water values will be at or above 2 inches through the period, which could lead to periods of excessive rainfall. Late in the period the steering pattern becomes rather anemic with storm motion dropping under 10 kt, so flooding could become an issue. Best precip chances look to be Mon and Tue as the trough axis moves into the region. Precip chances decrease slightly for Wed as the mid level trough axis moves offshore and weak subsidence moves overhead. High temperatures a few degrees above climo at the start of the period will trend toward climo by the middle of next week. Low temperatures will run above to well above climo. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 00Z...Surface high pressure off the southeast CONUS will combine with a weak trough over the mid-atlantic to produce southwesterly flow across the area through 00Z Friday. Do not expect convection to develop due to the effects of upper ridging, as well as limited moisture from 700-400 mb. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon convection through Sunday may create brief periods of MVFR/IFR. Otherwise expect VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 624 PM Wednesday...High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep a southwesterly flow through the period. A few knots of wind may be added to the forecast as a weak low level jet develops. Seas will remain in the 2 to 3 ft range. Dominant wave periods shared between 3.5 seconds and 6 seconds will make things a little bumpy. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...Not much will change on the surface weather map through the period with high pressure remaining well offshore. A low level jet will develop Thursday night and this could add a few knots of wind to raise the forecast to 15 to 20kt. Some 4 ft seas are progged to develop but they may remain just outside of the 20nm zone border. These winds and seas may remain on Friday as though the LLJ weakens a piedmont trough may drift a bit closer to the coast increasing the gradient. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...Bermuda High will maintain southwest flow over the waters with afternoon speed enhancement via the Piedmont trough. Speeds will range from 10 kt in the morning to a solid 15 kt with higher gusts in the afternoon. Seas will run 2 to 4 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...CRM

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