Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 291438 AFDILM FXUS62 KILM 291350 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 950 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...NO APPRECIABLE MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE PROGRESSING FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE MORNING UPDATE. NOTABLY DRY H8-H6 AIR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IMPARTED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS HOUSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS EDGING LANDWARD ONTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS SURFACE HEATING GEARS UP AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE SPREADS INLAND. AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE ARID SIDE ABOVE 700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION TO MODERATE CUMULUS OR SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS WELL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PRESENT FORECAST. THE ONLY POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT COULD BE NEEDED ASIDE FROM TWEAKS TO T/TD WOULD BE EXTENDING LOW-END POP VALUES FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR LATE MORNING SHOWERS...AND BY AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY RESIDE FARTHER INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MOISTURE WILL TEND TO REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AND FAIRLY SCANT AT THAT. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD OR HALF OF THE AREA STABLE ON ACCOUNT OF THE COOLER SSTS AS WELL AS KEEPING COASTAL LOCALES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER DURING THE OTHERWISE WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PRETTY BLOCKED UP AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE MOST PART. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS, WITH INLAND LOCALES RUNNING JUST A BIT WARM IN THE ABSENCE OF THE MARINE EFFECTS. UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT ITS EFFECTS LOCALLY WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LONG TERM. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... MONDAY MAY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL CHANCES FAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND. THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AND LIKELY NOT AS WARM BY TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN TREMENDOUS AGREEMENT WHERE THIS FRONT WILL BE COME WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE PROXIMAL ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS WOULD ALSO IMPLY A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN. SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR WARRANTED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...VFR THROUGH EVENING EXCEPT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS. LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E-ESE BY THIS AFTERNOON. BY 16Z ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND AND BY AFTERNOON BE LOCATED NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAFS HOWEVER DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...FRIENDLY MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SWELL COMPONENT TO THE SEA SPECTRUM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS POINTING TOWARD OUR COAST NEAR BERMUDA AND OVERALL SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN AT A SOLID 3-4 FT MOST AREAS HIGHEST OFFSHORE WHERE BOTTOM FRICTION IS PLAYING LESS OF A ROLE. DOMINANT PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS WILL BE ONGOING ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT CHOP...SOMETIMES MODERATE INSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON TO VERY EARLY EVENING. THUS E-ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS THE PRIMARY WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE EXPECTED. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... A VERY LIGHT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. THOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY WEAK THE FETCH WILL BE QUITE LONG. SMALL WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH SOME EASTERLY SWELL FOR A 3 TO 4 FT DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS RETREATS ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT VEER AND INTERRUPTING THE FETCH LENGTH. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE ON MONDAY WHILE PIEDMONT TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER LAND. SEAS MAY STILL BE HOVERING AROUND 3 FT MARK DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL ENERGY FROM THE SHORT TERM. COLD FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER AND PERHAPS A CATEGORY INCREASE IN SPEED BUT NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR

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