Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 190738 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 338 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEATHER. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HOT CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED BUT COOLER CONDITIONS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:15 PM MONDAY...MOST CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH WE MAY GET THE TAIL END OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS CUMBERLAND AND SAMPSON COUNTIES TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONVECTION CHANCES TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS: UPPER RIDGE REMNANTS OVER THE AREA ALBEIT FLATTENED BY PASSING SHORT-WAVE ENERGY...HAS ALLOWED POOR MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO LINGER OVER THE WARNING AREA. A STRONG MCV FEATURE WAS AIDING IN STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER NE NC AND SE VA. ANOTHER IMPULSE HEADING INTO WESTERN SC WAS SETTING OFF SCATTERED TSTMS FROM FAR AUGUSTA GA TO COLUMBIA SC TO MARLBORO COUNTY SC. STEERING FLOW WILL GUIDE CONVECTION FROM WSW TO ENE AT 25 TO 30 MPH. SEVERAL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHERE AN AWAITING AND PARTIALLY PINNED SEA BREEZE COULD POTENTIALLY PULSE ECHO TOPS TO HIGHER REACHES...POSSIBLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG OUR COASTAL INTERIOR IN LATE AFTN THROUGH MID-EVENING. TEPID OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY BARELY FALL BELOW 80 NEAR THE COAST WITH MODERATE SW WINDS AND DEBRIS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND ALSO THE ELEVATED MAXIMUMS WE SAW TODAY. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN RAPID FASHION. MINIMUMS DAYBREAK TUESDAY ESSENTIALLY 77-80 NEAR THE COAST AND MIDDLE 70S FARTHER INLAND. LOWS NEAR THE BEACHES 81-83 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY STILL EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM...AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF N/NW WINDS BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL START WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO TEMPERATURES SINCE THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE 90S EVEN TO THE BEACHES THANKS TO W/NW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PINNING THE SEA BREEZE. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY SIMPLY DUE TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE HEAT/HUMIDITY...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ABOVE 700MB WILL LIMIT COVERAGE...AND ONLY SCHC POP IS WARRANTED. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE STRONGLY DIURNALLY FORCED...AND THUS WILL WANE AFTER DARK...LEAVING A WARM BUT CLEAR NIGHT WITH MINS ONLY IN THE MID 70S...UPR 70S AT THE BEACHES. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD MID 90S LIKELY...WITH SOME LOW 90S AT THE BEACHES AND UPR 90S ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON THURSDAY THOUGH...AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MIGRATES TO THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR A TROUGH TO DEVELOP AND DIVE DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A FAST OUTLIER...BUT LOWERING HEIGHTS THURSDAY EVE COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTN AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS AGREES WELL WITH INHERITED AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED...FALLING TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 75.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...FOLLOWED BY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPANSIVE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MS VLY AND BLOOM NORTHEAST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DIVES ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS CREATES A COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD...FRI/SAT...LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO POP WARRANTED AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO AN OTHERWISE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY...AND THEN ONLY SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH UPPER IMPULSES CRESTING THE TROUGH AND RACING TOWARDS THE AREA ON NW FLOW...AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TEMPORALLY OR SPATIALLY THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS...OTHER THAN SUGGESTING A DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH...LEAVING COOLER BUT DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE INLAND TERMINALS WHERE WINDS DROP BELOW 3 KT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ON TUESDAY. VFR PREVAILS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS VEERING TO WSW 5 KT OR LESS. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY TUE MORNING HOURS BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED TEMPO GROUPINGS ATTM...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND TERMS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA TO POP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. DYNAMICS WITH AN UPPER S/W TROF TO PASS ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL FURTHER AID TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WILL INDICATE BEST TIME FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPINGS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 KT OR LESS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 8-13 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL TERMS AFTER THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:15 PM MONDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING ACROSS AMZ256 FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: HAVE RAISED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AS SEAS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE...WITH S TO SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS AT THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE ARE FOUND CLOSEST TO THE COAST DUE TO A STRONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF W/NW WINDS WILL START WEDNESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT THESE WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO A SW DIRECTION THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER WEAK HOWEVER...SO WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS MOST OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT FIRST THING WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL FALL TO 1-2 FT MOST OF THE SHORT TERM BEFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH THE HIGHER WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY...CAUSING A WIND SHIFT FROM S/SW AT 5-10 KTS...TO N/NE AT 5-10 KTS...BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR FIRST ACROSS AMZ250...AND THEN DROP S/SW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND BY SATURDAY MORNING ALL WATERS WILL BE EXPERIENCING LIGHT N/NE WINDS. A SURGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY...REMAINING FROM THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS FRIDAY WILL BE OF LOW AMPLITUDE...1-2 FT...BUT A CONFUSED SPECTRUM WILL DEVELOP AS THE WIND SHIFT OCCURS. SEAS WILL BUILD SLOWLY ON SATURDAY TO 2-3 FT WITH A NE WIND CHOP BECOMING PREDOMINANT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH/REK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH MARINE...DCH/REK/JDW

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