Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 211449 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 936 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING STORM BREWING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. EXPECT MILDER BUT WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...INCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED AHEAD OF THEIR FORECAST CURVE A BIT AND MAY NEED JUST A FEW DEGREES TO BREATHE OVER NORTHERN ZONES. THAT IS, MAY RAISE HIGHS JUST A TAD. OTHERWISE THE COOL ADVECTION SHOULD TEMPER THE RISES A BIT. EVEN SO THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN NORMAL N-S GRADIENT IN HIGHS TODAY AS THE MAIN LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER TROFFING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TODAY WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BY SAT MORNING...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FA... WITH FLOW FROM CANADA BEING CUT OFF. WHETHER THIS BE A LONG TERM CHANGE OR JUST TEMPORARY...FORECASTS BEYOND THE NEAR TERM WILL FIGURE THAT ONE OUT. IN THE NEAR TERM...A SFC COLD FRONT IS TAKING ITS TIME TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AM. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES TAKE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI. WHAT THIS MEANS IS A SFC WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW-NNE AND ASSOCIATED CAA AND AN INFLUX OF A DRY AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGINS RIDGING ACROSS THE FA AFTER THE CFP THIS AM. AS FOR TODAYS MAX AND TONIGHTS MINS...HAVE STAYED SLIGHTLY COLDER THEN THE MODEL MOS CONSENSUS. THIS A RESULT OF THE FA HAVING BEEN UNDER A COLD DOME ALL THIS WEEK WITH GROUND/SOIL TEMPS HAVING DECREASED. OTHER THEN THE CURRENT THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD ATTM...SKIES TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...WITH CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT. MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA ILLUSTRATE THE LOW RHS THRUOUT THE ATM COLUMN. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL LIE NEARLY OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND MAY RESULT IN SFC WINDS DECOUPLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT RAD CONDITIONS...MIN TEMPS INLAND TONIGHT MAY FURTHER DROP THAN WHATS CURRENTLY FORECAST...WILL MONITOR FOR LATER UPDATES. WITH NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA...OVERNIGHT FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASINGLY DEEP AND MOIST RETURN FLOW SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SAT MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY SAT NIGHT AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISES UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP DRY COLUMN TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ON SHORE MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. PCP WATER VALUES LESS THAN A QUARTER OF INCH EARLY SATURDAY WILL INCREASE UP TO AN INCH BY SUN MORNING AND UP NEAR 2 INCHES BY SUN EVE. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMING TOGETHER OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATER SUN AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LLJ INCREASES UP TO 50 KTS SUN EVENING WITH MORE OF HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE BUT DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST WILL REACH INTO THE MID 60S. EXPECT GREATEST CHC OF PCP ALONG WITH GREATEST QPF TOWARD EVENING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFF SHORE BUT SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT GUSTS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND. MAY EVEN SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGEST STORMS. THE COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MOST PLACES ON SATURDAY. THE DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN INCREASING ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEEP WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS MON THROUGH TUES BEFORE IT FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON WED. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON TUES ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING BUT DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS UNTIL SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS AWAY FROM AREA ON WED. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC OF PCP WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST MON AND TUES BUT PCP MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUES AS BEST DYNAMICS ALOFT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE TROUGH PASSES OFF SHORE ON WED...A DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE OF WED AND A NICE THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON MON WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 CLOSE TO THE COAST. ONCE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUES SOME SHALLOW COOLER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY IN ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S ON TUES. CONTINUED CAA AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH WED WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL AND INCREASED SUNSHINE FOR THURS WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY IN CONTINUED CAA. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. PER KLTX VAD WIND PROFILE THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED S OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE NNW-NNE AT 10-15 KT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS WELL INTO THE TEENS. BY AND AFTER SUNSET FRI...WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO NE AOB 5 KTS WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING SUNDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH PATCHY -RA. TUESDAY VFR INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR/-RA COASTAL TERMINALS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...A REAL BORDERLINE SCEC CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN WATERS. TREND AT 41013 HAS BEEN THAT OF SUBSIDING SEAS BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE BY A FEW KNOTS NEXT FEW HOURS IN A PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND SOME 5 FT SEAS SHOULD BE PLAGUING THE OUTER REACHES OF NRN TWO ZONES. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL BENEFIT ENOUGH FROM WAVE SHADOWING AND OFFSHORE WINDS TO PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCEC JUST FOR THE ILM NC WATERS THRU NOON TODAY. SFC CFP SLATED TO OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY DAYBREAK. LOOKING AT WSW-WNW WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING NNW-NNE AFTER THE CFP. A TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...MAINLY AHEAD OF A 1030+ MB HIGH RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RUN 10-20 KT WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE PEAK OF THE CAA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BROAD CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REACH THE VA-NC-SC AREA BY DAYBREAK SAT. AS A RESULT...WIND DIRECTIONS TO BECOME NE. WITH A SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED SFC PG CONTINUING OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FCST AROUND 15 KT. EARLIER WESTERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY BUILT UP SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BETWEEN 2 AND 5 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OFF CAPE FEAR. SLOPPIER SEAS WILL ENGULF THE AREA WATERS AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW-NNE BY DAYBREAK AND NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DEFINITELY DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS RUNNING 3.5 TO 4.5 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ON SHORE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT E-SE WINDS UP TO 10 KTS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH SAT BUT WILL INCREASE UP TO 4-5 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY SUN MORNING AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER WELL ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT. EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE UP TO 8 TO 10 FT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 4 TO 6 FT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY AS SFC LOW LIFTS OFF THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY FROM 15 TO 20 KTS DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY MON NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE FURTHER AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS ON TUES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO UP TO 5 TO 7 FT ON MONDAY TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT BY LATE TUES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...MBB/DCH SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MRR

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