Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 232014 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 314 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA DURING SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...KLTX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL PROGRESSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PRESIDE THROUGH TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS A CONFINED AREA ALONG THE COASTAL CAPE FEAR AREA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...DEEPER CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OFF THE COAST GIVEN THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER ADJACENT LAND LOCATIONS. IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT... HOWEVER INTENSE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO MAY IN THE END ROB US OF HIGHER QPF. AS A RESULT...HAVE NUDGED THE STORM TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT DOWNWARD WITH ABOUT 2 INCHES FROM COASTAL CAPE FEAR TO JUST ABOVE AN INCH FAR WESTERN ZONES. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE RANGE IN TEMPS ALONG THE COAST IS EXPECTED AS THE WARM FRONT WAFFLES JUST ONSHORE THIS EVENING. THUS A TEMPORARY RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IS LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS...BEFORE THIS AIR-MASS IS SHUNTED BACK OUT OVER THE OCEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...TAIL END OF THE RAIN EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAILING OFF THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. A RAPIDLY DRYING COLUMN WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. SPC KEEPS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WX IN THE FORM OF TORNADOES OR DAMAGING WINDS FOR A THIN STRIP ALONG THE NC COAST FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURNS OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES SE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THIS IS A MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE WE CAN EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NC COUNTIES. COLUMN REMAINS TOO WARM FOR FROZEN PRECIP DURING THE SHORT TERM. A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE GIVES US HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND RIGHT AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE AN ATYPICAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR SATURDAY DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE HIGHS OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS EARLY MONDAY WILL CARRY AN ARCTIC FRONT EAST ACROSS AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE COAST EARLY MON AFTN WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE RIDING RIGHT OVER CAPE FEAR. THIS SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEAVING A LOW END CHC OF PCP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTN. BY EVENING PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA IN DEEP N-NW FLOW AS WE TAP INTO AN ARCTIC AIR MASS. LOOKS LIKE 850 TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW 0C FROM MON EVE UNTIL THURS MORNING. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL COME ON TUES AS 850 TEMPS REACH AS LOW AS -7 C. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S MOST PLACES BOTH TUES AND WED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD KEEPING POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS THROUGH TUES BEFORE THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT COMPLETELY IN REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AND DRY AIR. PCP WATER VALUES DROP DOWN FROM CLOSE TO A HALF INCH ON MON DOWN TO NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR WED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON THURS WILL ALLOW AIR MASS TO MODIFY BRIEFLY AND WARM SLIGHTLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 50S BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY KNOCKING TEMPS BACK DOWN AGAIN.THIS FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE AND SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PCP. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON AS RA/SHRA INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WINDS WILL BE NE-E THIS AFTERNOON. AROUND 00Z WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH IMPROVING CIGS TO MVFR/TEMPO VFR AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. KEPT TEMPO GROUP FOR TS/IFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS TO COINCIDE WITH MAX LIFT IN THE WARM SECTOR. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW AT KFLO/KLBT AROUND 04Z...AND AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS 09-10Z. CIGS BECOME MVFR/IFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR CIGS SAT MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY SAT EVENING. VFR ON SUN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MON WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR ON TUE/WED. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD AS THE FETCH OFFSHORE DIRECTS WAVE ENERGY TO THE COAST. SEAS WILL RANGE UP TO 10 FT ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE FEAR WATERS. THE FLOW WILL VEER FROM A EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER WIND/WAVES. NO CHANGES TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS TURN OFFSHORE AND LIMIT FETCH. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM PASSES OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THEN. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY MONDAY WITH A DEEP COLD NW TO N FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH MID WEEK. SHOULD SEE GUSTY NW WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS. SEAS AROUND 3 TO 5 FT WILL KICK SEAS UP BRIEFLY BUT THE OFF SHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME THROUGH TUES AS WINDS VEER MORE TO THE NORTH AND GRADIENT SLACKENS...BUT A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AND DRY AIR WILL COME TUES NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH WED. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS AGAIN TUES NIGHT INTO WED WITH SEAS APPROACHING SCA THRESHOLDS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REK NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MRR MARINE...REK/RGZ/SRP

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