Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280619 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 219 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds and showers will increase over the weekend as Tropical Depression 2 currently 370 miles southeast of Myrtle Beach, organizes into a Tropical Storm late tonight or Saturday and tracks to the central and southern SC Coasts early Sunday. This Tropical System will meander across both SC and NC Coasts through the early to middle portions of next week. As a result, expect an extended period of unsettled weather across the region throughout this Memorial Day Weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1100 PM Friday...Left-over subsidence aloft across the FA, well ahead of TD #2, will finally relinquish its effects across the FA late tonight into Saturday. The clear skies with thin cirrus moving overhead thru Midnight, will give way to the onshore movement of low and mid level clouds late in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. Any onshore movement to possible pcpn will begin after daybreak Saturday. Progged PWs only reach around 1.25 inches at the coast by daybreak...enough for isolated showers by daybreak. The trend of onshore deeper moisture in the form of clouds and pcpn will occur during daylight Saturday. Latest min temps look in the ballpark with 60s inland. Onshore winds across ssts running in the low to mid 70s will keep min temps along the immediate coast elevated at or above 70 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1130 PM Thursday...The latest 11 pm update from NHC for Tropical Storm Conditions from #2 has been incorporated into the local forecasts. This includes Horry and Georgetown Counties, both the inland and coastal zones, and also including the adjacent coastal waters. See the latest array of Tropical Statements and Forecast issued for the mentioned area. Previous........................................................ AS OF 330 PM Friday...The western limb of a broad high pressure system over the western Atlantic will continue to retreat north of the eastern Carolinas as a developing tropical or sub-tropical low over the Bahamas drifts slowly to the NW with little change in intensity. As mentioned in the Near Term discussion above, model guidance and ensembles continue to be in good accord with this scenario. Model soundings move deep layer moisture in after daybreak on Saturday morning. This will bring increasing chances for showers or thunderstorms, especially along the coast, beginning on Saturday morning, with chances increasing through the remainder of the period as the low approaches the coast of SC. It is unlikely that winds associated with this system will be a concern through the short term as guidance continues to show that this feature will be weakly organized and slow to develop. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday...Lingering low pressure/trough along the Carolina coast will keep some clouds and unsettled weather...especially along the coast. Kept mostly cloudy skies most places for most days, although models do seem a bit more optimistic with cloud cover and potential for rain inland. Looks like ridge will shift eastward as northern stream shortwave rides by on Monday, but then ridge builds back over the east coast with some minor weakness remaining. This could produce some increased subsidence and dry air aloft to help limit shwrs/tstms heading into the middle of next week, but gfs continues to show a fair amount of shwr activity. For now, will show higher chc of shwrs Mon into early Tues as low pressure lingers and then show a diminishing trend as ridging begins to build up through the SE. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 06Z...mid and high level moisture will begin to increase before sunrise in advance of a developing tropical storm that will approach charleston. a few spotty showers well in advance of this system will move onshore south of myr before daybreak...and will become more numerous through the afternoon and evening hours. Extended Outlook...Occasional MVFR conditions in scattered to numerous showers and isolated t-storms late Saturday night, shifting inland for Sunday. Occasional MVFR with scattered showers Monday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1100 PM Friday...Sfc ridging to the w thru n of the area waters overnight and the approach of TD #2 from the se...will begin to slowly tighten the sfc pg towards daybreak Sat...with 10 to occasionally 15 kt for wind speeds. The actual sfc pressure pattern will yield ne-e wind directions overnight. Significant seas will begin to build after midnight...with seas running 3 to 4 ft by daybreak Sat. A pseudo swell at 2 ft with Periods around 7 seconds, will dominate the seas spectrum. At the same time, wind driven waves will increase to 1 to 3 feet at 4 to 5 second periods. Isolated to scattered convection will begin to overspread the area waters from the SE toward daybreak Sat. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1130 PM Thursday...The threat for Tropical Storm Conditions has been incorporated into the local marine forecasts, with the coastal waters from Little River Inlet south to South Santee River. See the latest array of Tropical Statements and forecasts issued for the mentioned area. Previous....................................................... AS OF 330 PM Thursday...The western limb of a broad high pressure system over the western Atlantic will continue to retreat north of the waters as a developing tropical or sub-tropical low over the Bahamas drifts slowly to the NW to the coast of SC with little change in intensity. This will bring increasing chances for showers or thunderstorms, along with gradually increasing winds and seas. At this point it is possible that winds associated with this system may be strong enough to warrant an advisory for seas reaching 6 ft at some point during the short term, but warnings are less likely as guidance still shows a weakly organized and slowly developing system. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...Lingering low pressure/trough along the Carolina coast may produce some variability in winds but overall expect an onshore SE-E wind to continue but generally on the weaker side...about 5 to 10 kts. Swell should be just around or under 8 seconds with seas between 3 and 5 ft through Mon into Tues. Expect winds to remain light with seas diminishing as the effects of tropical low wane through mid week....down to 3 ft or less by Tues night into Wed. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ053>056. NC...None. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...DCH/REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...CRM MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW

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