Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 211439 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1039 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A WEAK FRONT TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO HIGHER HUMIDITY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...EASTERN NC REMAINS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND ANY FOG LIFTED...BUT STRATUS IS STILL BREAKING UP WITH A FAIRLY DECENT BLANKET OF STRATOCU OVER NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT STRATOCU TO DISSIPATE SOME WITH A GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE MIXING IN. APPROACH OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH HEATING OF THE DAY AND MOISTURE RICH AIR TO BEGIN TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE MORNING. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING WITH THE UPPER JET IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF WARM FRONT AND CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH DEWPOINTS UP AROUND 70. THE MARGINAL AREA OUTLINED BY SPC LINES UP WITH BEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS...WITH ML CAPE CLOSE TO 1200 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL REACH AROUND 35 KT...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. DCAPE WILL BE ABOVE 500 AS SW-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE DRYING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND A GREATER INVERTED V TYPE PROFILE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE MORE SUBSIDENCE WHICH COULD ACT AGAINST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT....BUT THIS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR GREATER VERTICAL SHEAR AND MAY SEE A FEW LINE SEGMENTS DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HAIL OR BRIEF TORNADO...AS WELL. EXPECT THIS TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF LOCAL CWA AND MAINLY OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. KEPT POPS HIGHEST IN THIS AREA. POPS WILL TREND DOWN TO CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. ANY STORMS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL MOVE SWIFTLY OFF TO THE EAST IN A 25 TO 35 KT WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. THE LINGERING WEAK FRONT WHICH HAS PUSHED BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WILL GET NUDGED EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS AS SFC LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF SHORE BY THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHC OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND N OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK....PROVIDING THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE AS LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING ANY CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END. A TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO THE NE INTO THIS EVE...BRINGING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS MAY BRING AN UPTICK IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT NO RAINFALL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...FAIR WEATHER WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...THOUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FRIDAY. MINS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MODERATE SLIGHTLY TO THE LOW TO MID 60S SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY TO MID 80S TO AROUND 90 BY WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...GOING FROM LOW TO MID 60S SUNDAY NIGHT TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER UPPER RIDGE WEDNESDAY COULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE REGION. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE CONVECTION OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. OUR NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS THEY WILL LIKELY HEAT UP THE MOST AND WILL HAVE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THIS EVE...AND THEN N OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TO OUR N MOVES FURTHER AWAY. A DEVELOPING NORTHERLY SURGE WILL INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT LATE TONIGHT AND WE WILL BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT TODAY WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVE. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE A QUIET PERIOD ON THE WATERS WITH NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THAT WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS WITH SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...RAN AVIATION...DL

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