Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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055 FXUS62 KILM 201726 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1237 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm conditions are expected through the weekend, as an upper ridge over the Gulf states moves east, and off the Carolina coasts. An approaching storm system will bring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances late Monday through next Tuesday, followed by much cooler air through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1010 AM Friday...Sunny skies will prevail this afternoon as the morning soundings from MHX, CHS, and GSO and the GOES-16 total precipitable water product all show precipitable water values around 0.5". The morning soundings are supporting high temperatures in the lower 80s and with the high pressure centered just to the west and shifting slowly to the east northeast, winds are expected to be very light. Expect patchy fog to again form overnight with limited boundary layer moisture. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 217 AM Friday...A nice one shaping up if you enjoy warm sunshine on a Saturday and Sunday in October. Above normal temperatures this weekend are on tap, as a a dry upper ridge moves east into the region, into air already quite dry. As a result, plenty sunshine minutes are expected to rack-up both days, with highs more indicative of September, and almost 10 degrees above normal for inland spots. The coolest portion of this period is daybreak Saturday, as lows Sunday morning will run 4-6 degrees milder, as the marine influence becomes more influential. Convergence offshore, with increasing low-level moisture, may bring a few low-topped showers late Sunday into coastal NE SC, and this trend will continue into Monday, with warm air advection ramping up. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 PM Thursday...the upper level pattern continues to show high pressure breaking down and a large scale trough moving to the eastern half of the United States by Tuesday. This is slower than the previous run. At the surface the frontal boundary is slower with the GFS bringing the frontal boundary into the area Tuesday night. The ECMWF is even slower with the boundary pushing off the coast Wednesday morning. Precipiation chances start late Sunday night with isolated showers then chances increase to likely on Tuesday with the frontal passage. High temperatures will be around 80 degrees on Sunday and Monday but with the frontal passage will see temperatures falling into the upper 60s to middle 60s by Wednesday and Thursday. Lows on Sunday night will be in the lower to middle 60s but will fall into the middle to upper 40s by Wednesday night. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 18Z...High confidence of VFR at all sites through 21/00Z, and after 21/12-13Z. Except for a few cirrus skies will be mostly clear through the overnight hours. Winds will be light and variable this afternoon except E-SE at KCRE/KMYR 5-10 kts until 00Z. Winds become calm this evening with good setup for BR with excellent radiational cooling. Still fairly dry so think MVFR worse case. Except IFR could occur at times at KCRE due to more available moisture from this afternoons onshore flow, and at KLBT due to proximity to river. Extended Outlook...Showers and thunderstorms may result in flight restrictions Mon-Tue.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1010 AM Friday...High pressure centered over the mountains to the west will shift to the north of the water overnight. North winds will be at 10 knots and slowly weakening through the evening hours. Seas will range from 2 to 3 ft with a few 4 foots closer to Frying Pan Shoals. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 217 AM Friday...A nice marine weekend shaping up, as surface high pressure migrates farther ENE to sea, leaving a light to moderate onshore NE-E wind this weekend. Winds will become SE-ESE nearshore both afternoons as a sea breeze forms from the warm inland temperatures. As a result, mariners may expect a few gusts to approach 20 kt inshore between 2pm-5pm. No TSTMS in the mix this weekend since it remains dry aloft, but isolated showers will approach the NE SC coast late Sunday. ESE waves will level off around 3 feet every 9 seconds, and a light onshore chop, moderate at times. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure over the waters will weaken and shift offshore. This will allow for veering of the winds with a southerly wind by Monday. Seas will be 3 to 4 feet as the winds slowly increase ahead of front that will approach the waters late Tuesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...HAWKINS AVIATION...MRR

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