Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 041142 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 642 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S TODAY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR INVADING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WARM FRONT HAS JUMPED ONSHORE FROM THE EAST RATHER THAN PROGRESSING UP FROM THE SOUTH. RAPIDLY RISING TEMPERATURES AND EVEN IMPROVING VISIBILITIES ARE NOW NOTED IN WILMINGTON...ELIZABETHTOWN...WHITEVILLE...AND AT MESONET STATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR HORRY COUNTY. LOOK FOR THE REMAINING SHALLOW COLD AIR TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MILD AND HUMID SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN FINE-TUNING THE HOUR-BY-HOUR TEMPS WITH THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT. DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS... EVEN WITHOUT A HIGH TO HOLD IT IN PLACE...THE WARM FRONT HAS HAD ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESS THWARTED BY THE PONDEROUS WEIGHT OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS STILL CLINGING TO THE SURFACE. JUST 1500 FEET UP SOUTH WINDS ARE INCREASING BEYOND 30 KNOTS AND MAY APPROACH 40 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER THE COLD GROUND (AND ADJACENT OCEAN) HAS LED TO DENSE FOG. THIS FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY SUNNY A REMARKABLE CHANGE WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES SOAR TO 75-80 DEGREES INLAND. THAT`S NO JOKE! TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ANYWHERE NEAR THE BEACHES AS WINDS BLOW ONSHORE ACROSS 45-50 DEGREE WATER. THE WORST WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR ALONG SOUTH-FACING BEACHES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY REACH 60 DEGREES WITH DENSE FOG CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE BEACHES INTO TONIGHT DUE TO FAVORABLY ALIGNED WIND DIRECTIONS AND CONTINUED HIGH DEWPOINTS RELATIVE TO OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF FLORENCE MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. FOR TONIGHT CONTINUED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A NEAR-SOLID OVERCAST POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT EVEN INLAND. THIS WILL STABILIZE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF WILL RULE THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 2/3RDS OF THE UNITED STATES. SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT...WITH UPPER FLOW FROM THE SW TO START THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHICH STARTS AT THU DAYBREAK. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND EVEN PACIFIC MOISTURE PROVIDED IT DOES NOT SCOUR OUT WHEN CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NEVERTHELESS...THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIER THAN NORMAL MAX TEMPS THU ALONG WITH PARTLY OR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE NORTHERN STREAM...DROPPING ACROSS THE U.S. FROM CANADA...WILL BE PUSHING A SFC COLD/ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THIS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD/ARCTIC FRONT...WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA. THE MAIN SWATH OF PCPN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CFP STARTING LATE MORNING THU...AND CONTINUING THU NITE BEFORE ENDING MIDDAY FRI AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE. NO DRAMATIC SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONT...AND THUS WILL ACTUALLY RELY ON OVERRUNNING BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE VERY SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS PUSHES UNDER THE MILD/WARM AIR ALOFT. TEMPS AFTER FROPA WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY COME LATE THU THRU THU NIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF SOMEWHAT DURING FRI. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OR ROUND OF MIXED WINTRY PCPN DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAYS 74-76 WITHIN THE ILM CWA. THE COLD AIR DEPTH AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE A DETERMINING FACTOR OF WHETHER IP WILL BE INTRODUCED INTO THE PCPN...AND ALSO THE SFC TEMP ITSELF. SREF INDICATES A CHANCE FOR SLEET ALONG WITH FREEZING RAIN FOR A PORTION OF THE ILM CWA. WITH A GOOD 2-3 DAYS OF SFC TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...WILL HOLD OFF WITH THE MENTIONING OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXING IN...LET ALONE ANY ACCRETION. IF ANYTHING...A TRACE OF IP MAY OCCUR BEFORE MELTING COME FRIDAY DAYBREAK. AS FOR FRI MAX TEMPS AND SAT MORNING MINS...STAYED CLOSE TO THE HIER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE IE. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE. 850MB PROGGED TEMPS BARELY BREAK 0 DEGREES DURING FRIDAY...AND EVEN STAY ABOVE 0 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF FRI NITE. THIS ILLUSTRATING HOW SHALLOW IN DEPTH THIS SFC BASED ARCTIC AIRMASS IS TO BECOME. EVEN PROGGED 925 MB TEMPS...ALSO HOVER AROUND 0 DEGREES FRI NITE. THE AREA MAY BE SUBJECT TO SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE FRI NITE AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND THE SFC PG RELAXES...ALONG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTH TO 20S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...THE LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA WILL INITIALLY BE GOVERNED BY THE UPPER TROF THAT HAS AMPLIFIED SOMEWHAT ALLOWING THE ARCTIC FRONT FROM EARLY FRIDAY TO PUSH OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS AND ALSO SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SAT INTO SUN...THE FA WILL BE UNDER AN ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL BE MODERATING QUICKLY ALLOWING TEMPS TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL STARTING FROM DAYTIME MAXES DURING SUNDAY. SHOULD BE A PCPN-FREE WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK...WANT TO FLATTEN THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE UPPER TROF PLAGUING THE FA...AND ONCE AGAIN SPLIT THE UPPER FLOW. MODELS WANT TO BRING BACK A MILDER AND MOIST AIRMASS TO THE REGION USING THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO SOURCES. MAINLY THE LATTER...GULF OF MEXICO. MAX/MIN TEMPS TO RECOVER TO CLIMO NORMS THIS PERIOD WITH CLOUDINESS LIKELY LIMITING ITS UPWARD ASCENT NEXT WEEK. WILL INCLUDE MAINLY SILENT 20 POPS BUT ATLEAST TEMPS WILL BE TOO MILD FOR ANY WINTRY WX REGIMES ACROSS THE ILM CWA. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AGAIN TO IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR TONIGHT AS LOW CIGS AND FOG RETURNS. WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS AND ALREADY REPORTS OF GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KILM...LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA...CREATING IFR/LIFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE RESTRICTED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LIFTS UP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HAZARDOUS WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET POTENTIALLY ALLOWS FOR 1000 FT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS. INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...ANTICIPATE AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WITH GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCRE/KMYR. THESE TWO TAF SITES MAY REMAIN IN IFR AS SEA FOG PERSISTS JUST ALONG THE COAST. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE YET AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR AS LOW CIGS AND FOG RETURNS...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WARM FRONT HAS INDEED LEAPT INLAND WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS NOW NOTED NEAR THE COAST. DENSE SEA FOG CONTINUES AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS... A WARM FRONT IS CRAWLING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS AND SHOULD FINALLY LEAP NORTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE VERY CHILLY WATER TEMPERATURES IS RESULTING IN DENSE FOG. WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT I SEE NO REASON WHY THE FOG WILL END...AND I AM INCLUDING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING...REMAINING THERE THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONGER WINDS JUST 30-60 OFFSHORE WILL GENERATE A 6-7 SECOND SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...PUSHING TOTAL SEA HEIGHTS UP TO 3-5 FEET. THIS SWELL SHOULD EXCEED ANY LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT WAVE SET. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT THU...WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE TO STRONG SCA THRESHOLDS AT 20 TO 30 KT AFTER ITS PASSAGE DURING THU EVENING AND NIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO DAYTIME FRI BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH ELONGATES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FRI NITE. DIRECTIONS WILL VEER TO THE N TO NE AFTER FROPA. AT THE PEAK OF THE CAA DURING THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...AND COMBINED WITH THE TIGHTENED SFC PG...WIND GUSTS SHOULD BREACH 35+ KT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOCALLY MILDER SSTS...RELATIVELY SPEAKING. IE...THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BE RULED BY LOCALLY PRODUCED AND MERGING WIND DRIVEN WAVES. WILL HAVE A LIMITED FETCH TO WORK WITH...RESULTING IN A DECENT RANGE OF SEAS...LOWEST AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND UP TO 5 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...AND OFF CAPE ROMAINE. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...FINALLY...AND I MEAN FINALLY...A BRIEF REPRIEVE TO THE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS FORECAST FOR THE ILM COASTAL WATERS. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS THRUOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC MODERATES AS IT POSITIONS ITSELF NEARLY OVERHEAD COME DAYTIME SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WINDS TO DROP BELOW 10 KT AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 3 FT...AS A PSEUDO GROUND SWELL FROM THE NE-E BECOMES THE DOMINATE CONTRIBUTOR TO THE OVERALL SIGNIFICANT SEAS. PSEUDO...BECAUSE THE DOMINANT PERIODS EXHIBITED BY THIS SWELL WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 SECONDS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-053-055. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ054-056. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096- 099-105-107-109. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ106-108-110. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...SGL

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