Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 070528 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1220 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will build in behind exiting storm system through tonight. Dry and seasonable weather can be expected Wednesday and Thursday ahead of another cold front. Bone chilling cold air associated with an Arctic High, will bring sub-freezing temperatures deep in the 20s Saturday morning. A warming trend however will get underway early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 10 PM Tuesday...Precip is long gone as much dryer air filters in behind a departing frontal system. Still looking at lows in the mid 40s by daybreak. Previous discussion follows: 7 micron water vapor band reveals dramatic mid-level drying occurring into the eastern Carolinas with rain now essentially curtailed and sea-bound. Scouring entirely the resident cloud cover remains a separate dynamic requiring into Wednesday to see fruition. Partial clearing however can likely be inferred through the visible band from WSW to ENE into the evening. The muddiness, peeks of stars, and non-agressive winds could prompt a pocket or bank of mist and fog to form overnight. Minimums will bottom out at sunrise, 41-49, coolest over the far SE NC interior and mildest along the Georgetown county coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 312 PM Tuesday...Primary headliners this period is a debut of sunshine Wednesday as weak high pressure moves in, and the onset of an Arctic air intrusion late Thursday. Isolated showers Thursday may preceded the cold but QPF expectations are nil to few hundredths. Coldest portion of this time period daybreak Friday 30-35. The mildest part of this period where readings will reach 60-65, both WED/THU aftn. Expect breezy conditions late Thursday as cold air races in. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM Tuesday...The Carolinas will be experiencing bone chilling temperatures and the coldest temps since last winter as a deep N-NW flow carries arctic air into the region behind exiting cold front. CAA will continue through Fri with GFS showing 850 temps bottoming out around -6c through Fri night. Any clouds on Fri will clear out with temps reaching just over 40 for a max temp. Gusty NW winds will make it feel even colder. The dewpoint temps will be down in the teens most places early Saturday but temps should hold in the 20s most places for a low in continued CAA in lighter NW winds overnight Fri. Temps will remain well below normal through much of the weekend, even with plenty of sunshine, as the high pressure moves east settling nearly overhead Sat night before exiting off the Mid Atlantic coast on Sunday. Overall expect the air mass to modify slowly with temps reaching back up toward normal by Sun and returning above normal Mon as winds shift around to the SE and eventually southerly. Increasing southerly return flow will develop ahead of next cold front on Monday bringing warmer and moister air into the area. Max temps should be back well into the 60s on Mon. This next front should move through by Mon night with increasing clouds and chc of pcp through Monday ahead of the front. Expect drier and cooler high pressure behind exiting cold front on Tues. Temps a good 10 to 15 degrees below normal over the weekend will swing back up to 5 to 10 degrees above normal on Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 06Z...Guidance has backed off considerably on showing lowered flight categories overnight due to visibility. Since the wind will remain elevated enough for weak mixing this seems plausible. There is little to rout out this low level moisture in the form of IFR ceilings however. This will have to wait until deeper mixing ensues after sunup. VFR from thereafter. Extended Outlook...Fog possible Wednesday night. VFR conditions expected to prevail late week through this weekend.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10 PM Tuesday...Have dropped the SCA for AMZ256 in favor of Exercise Caution headlines for the remainder of the overnight hours. Otherwise all continues as before. Latest obs show westerly winds of 15 to 20 kts with 4 to 7 ft seas. Previous discussion follows: Treacherous marine conditions prevail at this time through early Wednesday. Frying Pan 7 feet at 6 seconds, very steep, gusting to 26 knots/30 mph. Closer to shore 5-6 foot pitching waves. Small Craft Advisory flags to remain flapping through the overnight period. Stiff west winds tonight will turn NW, and both directions may impose 25-30 KT gusts. Offshore navigation tonight is discouraged. The ICW can expect gusty crosswinds. Low tide early this evening and again right around sunrise on Wednesday. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 311 PM Tuesday...Main headliner this period is a brief window of manageable marine conditions on Wednesday with lower sea heights and less wind trending. Even much of Thursday offers opportunity but by mid to late afternoon, the leading edge of an Arctic High will crank up NW-N winds in a hurry and by Thursday night the ocean will become perilous again. Expect deteriorating marine conditions late Thursday afternoon and Advisory conditions all of Thursday night. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Tuesday...Expect gusty NW winds up to 30 kts in strong caa behind arctic front Fri morning. The strong off shore flow will keep highest seas off shore up to 6 to 7 ft early Fri. Overall expect SCA conditions through most of Friday as winds and seas diminish through Friday as high pressure builds eastward. The winds and seas may spike up again as the cold air rushes over the relatively warmer air overnight Fri, but overall expect winds will diminish as they veer around through the weekend become northerly Fri night into Sat and NE to E by Sunday as high pressure moves further east. Seas will diminish as well through the weekend as the high pressure shifts closer overhead Sat night and then off the Mid Atlantic coast on Sunday. Seas 3-5 ft by Friday aftn will be down less than 2 ft by Sun morning by twill begin a rising trend late Sun as winds become more on shore. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MBB

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