Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 220734 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 334 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will linger off the South Carolina coast through Friday. Drier weather should develop Saturday as high pressure builds down from the north. A cold front will move through on Sunday, followed by several days of onshore winds and slightly cooler temperatures next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Thursday...Low pressure surface and aloft will bring yet another day of unsettled weather. Any sunshine will be very limited with chillier air aloft helping to keep the environment rather unstable. Precipitable water values will be in excess of 2 inches, very much a mid summer atmosphere as opposed to the first day of Autumn. However, the depth of deep moisture will be largely confined to the first 25 kft with a warm pocket of air 15-17 kft above ground level. The depth of moisture will be slightly deeper along the coast. Will carry highest pops across the eastern half of the FA, up to likely, with the coverage of convection more scattered as you progress westward. The lack of sunshine along with showers should prevent high temps from exceeding 80 or 81 degrees, although it will remain humid. Nighttime stabilization and a general shrinking of the depth of moisture will yield fewer showers with low stratus redeveloping. .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...A weakening low pressure trough aloft will persist for much of the period. Weak surface low pressure should very slowly edge offshore during the later half of the period. The risk for showers will be on a definite downward trend with precipitable water values dropping, especially inland. Will carry highest POPs Fri, with scattered coverage expected. At this time, will not carry any mention of showers Sat and we should see more in the way of sunshine to start the weekend. A backdoor cold front will approach the area Sun morning. Humidity levels will still be uncharacteristically high through the period. Highs on Fri will be in the lower 80s with mid 80s on Sat. Lows will be in the mid 60s to around 70.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 300 AM Thursday...A mid-and-upper level ridge axis will shift from the TN valley Sunday to the east coast by Tuesday, and will amplify between two anomalously strong upper lows into a Omega block-type pattern. At the surface, high pressure will ridge down across the mid-Atlantic states and produce onshore flow through the period. Although the primary belts of deepest moisture will remain south and west of the area, persistent onshore flow below 850 mb would provide sufficient moisture to support scattered showers.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 06Z...Mid-level trough and surface reflection will linger over the area through Thursday night. The surface circulation is expected to linger off the SC coast, and clouds and scattered showers will rotate onshore periodically. Ceilings will at times be reduced to IFR, especially through 12z. Some guidance is indicating potential for LIFR, but confidence is too low for inclusion at this time. Coverage of convection with thunder is expected to increase with heating this afternoon. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening convection possible underneath the cutoff upper low through Friday. MVFR/IFR morning stratus/fog possible each day through Sunday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Low pressure surface and aloft will continue today and tonight. NE winds this morning will back to easterly this afternoon and perhaps southeast tonight with the surface low largely to our S. Wind speeds near 10 kt this morning will diminish to less than 10 kt this afternoon and tonight. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft. An 11- 12 second easterly swell will be present. This swell is the result of tropical cyclone Karl. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...A trough of low pressure will still be in place during the period. A cold front to our N will struggle to gain southward momentum, but is expected to be approaching the waters Sun morning. NE winds will dominate throughout the period. WInd speeds will be strongest Sat night, up to 15 kt. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft, but 2 to 4 ft Sat and Sat night. An 11 to 12 second easterly swell will strengthen through the period. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Surface high pressure will build down the eastern seaboard behind a cold front, which should be crossing the waters during the day Sunday. With a blocked upper-level pattern developing through the first of the week, the surface high will persist and result in onshore flow through Monday. It does still appear that 3-4 foot swells every 10 seconds will continue into Sunday from distant tropical system Karl, falling off to a 2-3 foot wind wave by Monday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CRM NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...CRM AVIATION...CRM

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