Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 052347 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 747 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WHILE SOME DRIER AIR WILL MAKE THEM MORE SPARSE ON TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY AS WELL AS SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS CLEAR OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...BUT NOT FOR LONG AS WE DO HAVE A DEVELOPING CU FIELD AND STRONG CONVECTION IS APPROACHING FROM THE SW. SPC CONTINUES TO KEEP THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...WITH THE GREATEST RISK BEING FROM DAMAGING WINDS. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THAT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP THAT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION. AN UPPER LOW HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN OVER EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE HAS THIS LOW LIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NE AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND ITS PERIPHERY...IMPINGING UPON THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. WILL BE KEEPING IN LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVERNIGHT FOR THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. A BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE WHILE TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ALL POSSIBLE TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE AND EXISTING CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE SW. SO...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER KY/TN QUITE STRONG FOR JULY. IT WILL BE WEAKENING AND OPENING UP BY MONDAY AS IT PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. THE BEST PVA OCCURS EARLY IN THE DAY SO SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP. STORM MOTION WILL HAVE A STRONG EASTERLY COMPONENT AS THE UPPER WAVE VEERS THE BL FLOW. BY AFTERNOON WILL THUS BE ABLE TO SHOW HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST THOUGH STORMS STILL POSSIBLE INLAND AS WELL SINCE ANY CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING WILL HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER WAVE ON TUESDAY WE FIND OURSELVES WITH VERY LITTLE MID LEVEL FLOW...SWRLY AT 10KT OR LESS. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THAT ANY MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE VERY WEAK. THE WRF EVEN GOES SO FAR AS TO SHOW NO QPF AREA-WIDE. NOT QUITE READY TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT SLIGHT CHANCE/ISO COVERAGE SHOULD DO THE TRICK. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT A STRENGTHENING RIDGE LEADS TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CONVECTION CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SURFACE FEATURE...WHILE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT WHILE THE 500MB RIDGE BLOSSOMS...THE GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO DRIVE A SHORTWAVE AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THIS SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY IN THIS REGIME...AND AM GOING TO SIDE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF FOR THE WED/THU TIMEFRAME. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND WPC ANALYZES A TROUGH...LIKELY AN ENHANCED VERSION OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...ON FRIDAY. WILL SHOW A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST FRIDAY WITH BETTER CONVECTION CHANCES...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUMMERTIME VALUES. DECREASING POP IS EXPECTED FOR THE WKND AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BENEATH THE GROWING RIDGE...BUT AS ALWAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY STILL SET OFF ISOLATED STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING. AS FAR AS THE HEAT GOES...THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO CONTINUE THIS ABOVE NORMAL HEAT WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING A LOT OF RECENTLY. HIGHS AND LOWS MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT MAY RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE ON FRI/SAT WHICH WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST RADAR DEPICTS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE WEST. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH FEW/SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...EVENTUALLY SUBSIDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING LOW CIGS...POTENTIALLY CREATING BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AOB 10 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH SW WINDS MAINTAINING IN THE PRESENT 15 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL STAY RIGHT AROUND 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY AND SEAS WILL BE CHOPPY DUE TO THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY... A STRONG BUT ALSO WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL GLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE A PIEDMONT TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE. THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL BE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALBEIT IN A WEAKENED STATE. THE WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OFFSET BY A BIT OF A RETROGRESSION OF THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH. THE END RESULT LOCALLY WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND OR WAVES. LONG TERM MARINE/WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/ AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH KEEPS TYPICAL SW SUMMERTIME FLOW ONGOING ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT SLIGHT INCREASES TO 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN/EVE AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AND CAUSES SLIGHT PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL BE 3-4 FT EACH DAY...WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SE SWELL MOSTLY MASKED BY A SW WIND CHOP. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...SGL

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