Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 270738 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 338 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MID WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS NEAR THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...SCATTERED MARINE SHOWERS WERE EDGING LANDWARD AS NOCTURNAL BUOYANCY WAS NEARING DIURNAL PEAK OVER THE WATERS...COUPLED WITH AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE NORTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO SE NC THROUGH MORNING. SEA BREEZE SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED TSTM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE NNW LATER TODAY. DIURNAL COOLING WILL DIMINISH MOST OF THE CONVECTION BY EVENING. UNDER PLENTY SUNSHINE TODAY MAXIMUMS IN THE MIDDLE 90S WELL INLAND...AROUND 90 COASTAL INTERIOR...AND UPPER 80S COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD A WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR THE SURFACE PATTERN OUTSIDE OUTSIDE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION BY THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. HOWEVER IT IS SUMMER AND WILL HOLD ON TO THE MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY WITH READINGS VERY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND STRONG RIDGING OUT WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL TROUGHING TO DEVELOP AND ACTUALLY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THURSDAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH THIS A BROAD AREA OF UNSETTLED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE. THESE ELEMENTS WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE POPS IN BASICALLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY EARLY THEN DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOG. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE PARTICULARLY INLAND AS RH`S HAVE ROCKETED UP FROM THIS EVENING. BUFKIT SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL CHANGE IN HUMIDITIES...AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOK FOR FOG TO START TO SET UP AFTER 07Z...WITH GREATEST INTENSITY FROM 10-11Z. BELIEVE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL BE LBT.A QUICK BURNOFF IS IN STORE MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED BY 13Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FLORIDA WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE LOCAL 0-20 NM WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED TSTM IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SEAS MAINLY 3 FT COMPOSED OF 2 FT ESE WAVES EVERY 11 SECONDS MIXED WITH E WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS BASICALLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SPEEDS DO GET A BRIEF UPTICK EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...THE SEA BREEZE WILL DICTATE THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS TO AN EXTENT. SEAS REFLECT THE LOW WIND FORECAST WITH 1-3 FEET AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO 1- 2 FEET. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS NEARSHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST A BETTER DEFINED SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATER FRIDAY WITH A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS REMAIN MODEST AT BEST WITH 1-3 FEET.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MJC/DL

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