Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 181710 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1210 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING NEAR RECORD COLD AND DRY AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY WITH A WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW BRINGING RAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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S OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...MONDAY`S COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ACTIVE WEATHER IS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. STRONG CAA IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE BY CLOUD STREETS PERPENDICULAR TO THE COAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AS WELL AS FALLING 850MB TEMPERATURES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS A SIGNAL TO HOW DRY AND COLD THE SOURCE REGION AIRMASS IS...THE 12Z U/A SOUNDING FROM GSO HAD A 900MB TEMP OF -11C WITH A PWAT OF 0.10 INCHES. A VERY COLD BUT MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP LOCALLY AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES TOWARDS THE AREA. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET-LEVEL IMPULSE/MOISTURE STREAMING RAPIDLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTN...SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOUDLESS...THANKS TO THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT TODAY...IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN A RAPIDLY COOLING COLUMN AND AFTERNOON HEATING DUE TO INSOLATION. GUIDANCE NEARLY ALWAYS OVER-FORECASTS HIGHS IN THIS SETUP...SO HAVE MAXT BELOW ALL AVAILABLE MOS...AND EXPECT ONLY LOW 40S IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...WITH SOME MID 40S NEARER TO THE COAST. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST TONIGHT AND ANY REMNANT JET-LEVEL CIRRUS MOVES AWAY...A CLEAR...CALM...AND COLD NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. A STRONG SURFACE INVERSION WILL HELP TEMPS PLUMMET RAPIDLY RIGHT AFTER DARK...AND AM FORECASTING RECORD LOW MINS EVERYWHERE. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS COMPARED TO RECORDS FOR 11/19: WILMINGTON 25 SET IN 1959 CURRENT FORECAST IS 22 FLORENCE 24 SET IN 1951 CURRENT FORECAST IS 19 N MYRTLE BEACH 25 SET IN 1949 CURRENT FORECAST IS 24 IF ANY LOCATION DOES DROP BELOW 20 TONIGHT...IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME IN THIS AREA SINCE THE END OF JANUARY WE HAVE EXPERIENCED TEENS FOR TEMPERATURES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ARCTIC CHILL REMAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FAIL TO HIT 50 DEGREES BUT AT LEAST THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNSEASONABLY COLD BUT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVENTS RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS NOWHERE NEAR THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. A GENERAL UPPER 20S TO NR 30 ALONG THE COAST EXPECTED. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT THURSDAY TO BRING HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60. WHILE THIS WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MILD FOLLOWING THE ARCTIC BLAST MOST PLACES WILL STILL BE OVER ONE CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...NEXT COLD FRONT TECHNICALLY SEEMS TO STALL TO OUR NORTH. CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW HOWEVER DOES ALLOW FOR A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS. FRIDAY HIGHS LOOK CLOSE TO THOSE OF THURSDAY AND MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY FOR SUNSHINE. A BIT OF A WARMUP ON SATURDAY BACK TO NEAR CLIMO IS IN PART ADVECTION AND PART AIRMASS MODERATION. BY SUNDAY THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE PAVING THE WAY FOR STRONGER ADVECTION OF NOT ONLY WARMTH BUT INCREASING MOISTURE. DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED OFFSHORE BY MONDAY LEADING TO LOWER BUT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE MILD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD AS COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR BUILDS INTO THE TERMINALS. CLOUDS AT 18-25K WILL CLEAR FROM W TO E LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO 6 KT OR LESS JUST BEFORE 23Z THEN BECOME CALM LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND 12Z. HAVE INDICATED VARIABLE WINDS 5 KT ALTHOUGH WINDS COULD BE NE 5-7 KT FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WINDS WILL BECOME LGT SW KFLO/KLBT AND LGT SE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS MORE LIKELY SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 1 PM FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS AS A BUFFER FOR SOME STRONGER WINDS AND RESIDUAL HIGH SEAS NEAR THE 20 NM BOUNDARY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE WATERS TODAY...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX...ESPECIALLY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS THIS MORNING OF 15-20 KTS FROM THE NW WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 KTS OR MORE THROUGH EARLY AFTN...BEFORE FALLING OFF RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...TO JUST 10 KTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS COMBINED WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP FROM THE CURRENT 3-6 FT...TO JUST 2-3 FT OVERNIGHT...AND JUST AROUND 1 FT NEAR SHORE. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER ON TAP FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL CERTAINLY BE CHILLY OVER THE WATERS THIS WILL MAKE FOR LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL WAVES. WINDS START OUT OF THE NORTH BUT COULD ATTAIN CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY FOR A TIME AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH STRETCHES OUT UP AND DOWN THE COASTLINE. BY EVENING THIS SHOULD SHIFT JUST ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR A S TO SW COMPONENT TO DOMINATE. THIS FLOW REGIME LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. SEAS BUILD GRADUALLY ESPECIALLY WELL AWAY FROM SHORE. RENEWED PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE COMES IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGS A VEERING TO NW. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTINESS AS THIS OCCURS TO STEEPEN WAVE FACES SOME BUT NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION ON FRIDAY WITH A CENTER ROUGHLY OVER THE STATE OF MD. INITIALLY THIS YIELDS A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW LOCALLY BUT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD THIS FLOW WILL VEER AND WEAKEN. SATURDAY FINDS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WELL OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST BUT ENOUGH OF A RIDGE AXIS IS MAINTAINED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TO PREVENT S TO SWRLY RETURN FLOW AS USUALLY SEEN IN THE WARMER MONTHS. INSTEAD FLOW WILL BE ONSHORE BLOWING EAST OR PERHAPS SOUTHEAST ESP LATER IN THE DAY. ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME INCREASE IN WAVE PERIOD COULD LEAD TO SOME 5 FT SEAS BUT THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE RANGE TO PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR

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