Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 010845 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS A COOL SURFACE AIRMASS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY AND SET UP A COOL TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL WARM UP INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. COOL WEATHER WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER COOLER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE CONTINUES ATTM AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN INTO TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS THE THREAT THAT IT WILL BEGIN AS OR TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN NORTHWEST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NW TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MONDAY`S HIGHS MAY END UP CLOSE TO CLIMO JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS. SO WHILE CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE LITTLE. THAT MAY CHANGE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE ALOFT BEGINS TO OVERRUN THE SURFACE WEDGE BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE FROPA. GENERALLY ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND LIKELY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN ZONES. THESE RAINFALL CHANGES SHOULD OOZE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SHOULD RAIN CONTINUE TO RE-ENFORCE THE WEDGE THEN A COOL DAY IS ON TAP AND STATISTICAL OUTPUT IS FAIRLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUCH. BUT RAW MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE WEDGE BREAKING DOWN AND IT SEEMS THAT TEMP DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO MAY BE A BIT SMALLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED IN SOME TIME AS MANY LOCATIONS SAVE FOR BEACHES WARM INTO THE LOW 70S DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LOW AND CONFINED TO NWRN ZONES WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE BAROCLINICITY LAGGING BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TAKE A BIG HIT WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY ONCE AGAIN MIRED IN THE 40S. DID NOT GO QUITE AS COLD AS MOS GUIDANCE AS THAT WOULD BE TOO LARGE A CHANGE AND PRONE TO FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN VARIOUS GUIDANCE RUNS. WEAK CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE SOME MOISTURE MAY SLOSH BACK ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACCORDING TO THE EC. GFS MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST IN KEEPING MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH AND BRINGING SOME SUN LOCALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. EITHER SOLUTION FAVORS TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO...THE GFS WOULD IMPLY LARGER DEVIATIONS AT NIGHT THAN THE CLOUDIER SOLUTIONS. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...SURFACE WEDGE IN PLACE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ONGOING. THE WARM NOSE IS VERY DEEP SO PRECIP OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIQUID. THE ONLY QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE INLAND TERMINALS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH FALLING CEILINGS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY INLAND. LOOK FOR COLD AND DREARY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WINTER REFUSES TO LET GO. THE WEDGE MAY BRIEFLY LIFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING IN THE EVENING. THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST ON THE BACK END OF THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR MONDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR/SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT THAT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT SHORTLY AFTER DAY BREAK AND CONTINUE FALLING THROUGH TONIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE SOUTH AND 3 TO 5 FT RANGE NORTH. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME S TO SE AT 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS OFFSHORE/NWRLY WINDS THAT WILL REMAIN MODERATELY LIGHT EARLY ON. AS THE DAY WEARS ON HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL VEER THE FLOW TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND ADD A FEW KNOTS OF WIND SPEED AND PERHAPS A FOOT TO OFFSHORE DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT. EVEN SO NO FLAGS OR HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. BY TUESDAY THE PARENT HIGH WILL HAVE PROGRESSED A BIT EASTWARD OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS IS MAINTAINED INTO THE CAROLINAS. COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPING WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE ONSHORE POSSIBLY GRABBING SOME ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT SEAS AND DRAGGING THEM INTO THE VERY OUTER REACHES OF SOME OF THE FORECAST ZONES. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...THE APPROACH OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A TIGHTENED LOW LEVEL JET ON WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE WARM AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE AS COOLER SSTS INHIBIT VERTICAL MIXING OVER THE SHELF WATERS. HAVE BEEN CARRYING 6 FT SEAS BUT STARTING TO THINK THIS MAY BE A TAD OVERDONE AND ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS A LITTLE HARD-PRESSED TO MATERIALIZE. GIVEN IT BEING FAR OUT IN TIME HOWEVER DID NOT MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY THOUGH SOME COOLER AIR SHOULD POUR INTO THE REGION. THIS SEEMS LIKE A BETTER TIME FRAME FOR WINDS AND/OR SEAS TO SATISFY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017- 023-024. NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087- 096. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...31 SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL/31

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