Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 130759 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 259 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm air will surge ahead of a cold front today. This boundary will lead to a cooldown over the weekend, though temperatures will still average above normal.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 3 AM Friday...Clement and warm conditions on this Friday the 13th in the heart of January. If you are a fan of mild winter weather you are in luck. With no calender, watch, or smartphone in possession, one might believe it was April, as thermometer readings rise well into the 70s today. The westerly wind flow may boost max-T even a few more degrees across the coastal interior. The flow will keep the cooling sea breeze front fastened close to the coast today. By the time a cold front noses southward along the leading edge of high pressure, we will have already climbed almost 20 degrees above normal for January 13th. Wind-shift later today and this evening to NE and cloud intrusion as SFC-H8 moisture spills in, and a slight chance of light rain across interior SE NC late tonight into early Saturday. Severing warm air advection, and replacing it with cold air advection will bring upper 40s and lower 50s daybreak Saturday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 3 PM Friday...A little messier and a little cooler over the weekend but not necessarily wet. Plentiful low-level moisture will serve up periods of clouds, especially as moisture associated with the decomposing boundary waffles slightly northward into Sunday. Sunday will be a little milder as the wedge temporarily loses some muscle-mass. Sunday night the wedge re-asserts its strength and min-T values look similar both Sunday and Monday morning, 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 3 AM Friday...Surface wedge of high pressure to our north begins to retreat on Monday while mid level ridge builds off the coast. Tuesday brings a further eastward shift of the surface high and increased magnitude of the mid level anticyclone. On Wednesday the upper ridge joins the surface high in its eastward progression. This should allow for a moisture-deepening southwesterly flow to develop. This leads to a late day and nighttime increase in rain chances that will persist into Thursday. Monday`s highs in the low 60s will be above climatology but also the coolest day of the forecast as the return flow continues and deepens.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 06Z...VFR conditions much of this TAF cycle. Brief MVFR/IFR BR/FG possible between 08Z and 13Z. Late in the TAF period, a cold front will drop in from the north, turning winds to the NE and lowering cigs to MVFR. Extended outlook...OCNL MVFR/IFR conditions Saturday into early Sunday due to low ceilings. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Friday...Today is the day if you want to boat on the big blue, because late tonight NE winds will gust to 20-25 KT and seas will build to 6 feet offshore north of Cape Fear. An `Advisory` will be needed late tonight north of Cape Fear with a `Caution` statement from Cape fear southward, running until around midday Saturday. No TSTMS expected but patchy light rain late tonight off the Pender, New Hanover coasts. Relatively robust E-ESE swell of 11-12 seconds will add an element of sea confusion as NE wind-waves begin ripping across it late tonight. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 Am Friday...Saturday morning the ocean will still be messed up and bumpy offshore as Advisories and Caution flags remain flapping in a stiff NE wind. The good news here is that marine conditions will briefly improve and become manageable Saturday afternoon through most of Sunday before a resurgence of high pressure Sunday night. Sunday night the ocean will get roughed up again and `Caution` flags may fly once again. Once again NE wind-waves will interact with longer period E swell late Sunday, prompting a pitchy and tossed up sea spectrum. Sometimes its just best to buy seafood at the market and not take the chance. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 AM Friday...Light NE winds on Monday will veer as high to our north begins to lift out to the NE. Despite winds dropping to just 10 kt there may be enough swell energy for a few 3 ft seas offshore but most of the 20nm zones should be more characterized by 2 ft. The high will remain well offshore on Tuesday and sink south just enough to turn local flow out of the SW but with no appreciable increase in wind speed. Seas will remain largely unchanged.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MJC

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