Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 031758 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 158 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE COAST. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND STALLING NORTH OF THE AREA BRINGING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND STALLS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...CURRENTLY A FRONT WORKING ITS WAY INLAND AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE COAST A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT OF FLORIDA RIDING UP THE COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE AXIS FROM COASTAL PENDER COUNTY TO BACK TO WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS DIURNAL CONVECTION SLOWLY BY EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS IN THIS AREA. THE LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE AND INCREASE THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM THIS LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FARTHER INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE AFTN FORECASTER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING SLOWLY NE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NHC GIVES THIS A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME ANYTHING TRULY TROPICAL. REGARDLESS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS NOTED BY PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE THIS LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NE. SREF PROBS ARE WELL OVER 80% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TOWARDS I-95...AREAS THAT TRULY NEED THE RAIN...WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THANKS TO A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WILL MAINTAIN SUB-CLIMO POP DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRIER COLUMN. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR COAST...MAY STRUGGLE OUT OF THE MID 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95 WILL AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE UNIFORM AND HOTTER...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S EVERYWHERE...AND MAYBE A SPOT 100 IN THE WARMEST PLACES. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 75. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS ONE MORE DAY WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS SURPRISINGLY STRONG FOR EARLY- AUGUST...AND IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE SUBSEQUENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 SD`S FROM CLIMO...AND BOTH MEX/ECE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW CLIMO EVEN AS THEY ARE POSITIVELY INFLUENCED BY THE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THURSDAY WILL BE HOT...FRIDAY SEASONABLE...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. INHERITED LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MID-TO-UPR 80S AND WILL DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS FORECAST SO POP WILL RAMP DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...LIGHT OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN KFLO AND KMYR EAST TO KILM. MVFR CIGS/TEMPO MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING WITH THE SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE BEST CONFIDENCE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KILM. THE CHANCE OF VCTS IS LOW. PRECIPITATION MAY EASE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL TERMINALS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...THE WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEA TO INCREASE WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET WITH WINDS OF 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...UP TO 20 KTS...THE PROLONGED DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL EASE AND SHIFT TO THE W/NW FOR A SHORT TIME INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE WATERS AND WINDS RETURN TO THE S/SW AT 10-15 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FIRST THING WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT THANKS TO THE RESIDUAL SPECTRUM FROM TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 10-15 KT SW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF INCREASES UP TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANY WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED. SEAS WILL BE 2- 4 FT...RISING UP TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING ON THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR

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