Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 270515 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1215 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE COOL DOWN WILL BE MODEST. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 12:30 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL HELP SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. RAPID CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE EARLIER TODAY AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN PLACES. SOME AREAS ARE REPORTING VISIBILITY WELL BELOW 1 SM. HOWEVER THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY ALONG WITH EXPECTATION THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEGATES ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES OVERNIGHT MOST AREAS ARE ALREADY VERY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST LOWS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS STEADY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BOTTOM OUT AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THU MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING OUT THROUGH THE DAY. AS IT SKIRTS THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH...SUFFICIENT LIFT AND DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...FROM BENNETTSVILLE AND DILLON TO NEAR WHITEVILLE AND BURGAW AND POINTS N...DESPITE THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ABOVE 10 KFT. QPF WILL BE MINIMAL AND MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD BE ISOLATED SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. SUNSHINE ON THU SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF A FLO TO MYR LINE WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT. COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED BEHIND THIS TROUGH WITH TEMPS AT 850 MB DROPPING TO MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5 DEG FRI MORNING AND THIS CHILLY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...SO NO RISK FOR EVEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEYOND THU AND IN FACT IT LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WANING DAYS OF NOV. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH ONLY MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED ON FRI. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THU NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW MID 20S MAY OCCUR IN WIND PROTECTED COLD SPOTS. LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S...WITH A FEW LOWER 20S INLAND WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS ABLE TO MAXIMIZE LONGEST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A RATHER UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND/PATTERN CHANGE THE HEADLINES. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL START OUT DUE ZONAL...500MB HEIGHTS WEST TO EAST ARE ALL BUT FLAT INITIALLY AND VEERS SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY THAT BRIEFLY SERVES TO TEMPER THE WARMUP NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY ABOVE MONDAY WITH THE BRIEF SETBACK TUESDAY. A QUICK RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY AIRMASS MODIFICATION AS THE CATALYST AS THE RETURN FLOW WILL PLAY A FACTOR JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD. NO POPS THROUGHOUT. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING SW FLOW WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT ANY LINGERING BR/FG...AS DEPICTED BY LOW LEVEL DRYING IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ANY PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. HAVE ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM 11-14Z AT KCRE/KMYR/KFLO AS 35 KT WINDS AT 2KFT ARE DEPICTED WELL IN THE GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS BY DAYBREAK. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE VFR WITH GUSTY W-NW WINDS 10-20 KT DURING THE DAY...BECOMING NW LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER SUNSET. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE MORNING FOG ON MONDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 12:30 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BECOMING WEST BY MIDNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX WITH SPEEDS FALLING INTO THE 10 TO 15 RANGE BY MIDNIGHT AND REMAINING THERE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DO EXPECT A SLIGHT BUMP IN SPEEDS LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE WEST. MOST OF THE WATERS WILL REMAIN CAPPED AT 15 KT BUT PORTIONS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ256 EXPOSED TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST CORNERS...ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT NEAR SHORE OVERNIGHT TO 4 TO 5 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. UNSURE IF MARGINAL SCA WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THU INTO THU NIGHT OR IF SCEC WILL SUFFICE. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AN UPTICK IN WINDS DURING AND JUST BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT OUT THU AFTERNOON AND EVE...BUT REINFORCING COLD AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED INTO FRI. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE THINKING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. HOWEVER...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ON THU AND MAY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...VERY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST AND FAVORABLE FOR MARINERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE...CENTERED EAST TO WEST BASICALLY OVERHEAD. THIS WIND/PRESSURE PATTERN LEADS TO SEAS OF 1-3 FEET MAINLY OF SHORTER PERIODS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJD NEAR TERM...REK/III SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...BJR MARINE...REK/RJD/III/SHK

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