Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 191723 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1223 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will slowly build across the area through Monday, shifting offshore mid week. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm through much of the week. A risk for showers will increase late Friday into Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM Sunday...Weak high pressure across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys will slowly build across the eastern Carolinas today. High pressure centered across eastern Canada will begin to ridge south across the Carolinas later tonight. Skies were clear late this morning and will remain clear across the area through tonight. The exception is some residual mid clouds across the Cape Fear area which will move offshore through early afternoon. There is the potential for patchy fog toward Mon morning. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 70s with mid and upper 60s at the beaches. Lows tonight will be in the mid and upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...Dry and unseasonably mild weather will continue through the short term as an elongated ridge centered well to the north in Canada slowly transits the region. Dry low and mid levels and no triggers means no precip is likely through much of the period. There is the off chance of a sprinkle Tuesday night as a broad upper trough approaches the eastern seaboard, but lack of low level moisture makes chances of measurable precip seem remote. High cloud cover will increase, however, and this will help keep daytime temperatures on Tuesday a few degrees cooler than Monday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Sunday...High pressure shifts off shore over the western Atlantic becoming dominant feature Wednesday through Friday. Initially shortwave will be exiting the southeast coast Wed morning. May see some lingering clouds early Wed but overall, a warm return flow in more of a spring like pattern will maintain warm weather with temps well above normal. Will see some clouds in the mix Wed and Thurs with a greater amount by Friday as low level flow increases out of the southwest as cold front begins to approach from the west. Pcp water values below an inch Wed and Thurs will reach above 1.5 inches on Fri. Increased potential for convection will come late Fri into Saturday as cold front moves through the Carolinas. The GFS shows faster arrival with best chc of convection overnight Fri into early Sat while the ECMWF shows a much drier frontal passage with FROPA Sat night. Either way, expect increased clouds and shwr activity Fri night into Saturday. Relatively cooler and drier high pressure will build in behind this front for the latter half of the weekend. Temps well into the 70s Wed through Sat will only reach into the 60s on Sunday. Overnight lows between 55 and 60 most nights will drop down to 45 to 50 overnight Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 18Z...High confidence in VFR through the valid period. Trough of low pressure well off the coast will continue to move away today, as high pressure begins to ridge in from the northwest. This leaves a weak pressure gradient and NW winds of 5-10 kts, falling to near calm overnight, beneath SKC. High pressure expanding down from Northeast on Tuesday will cause winds to shift to the E/NE, but at continued light speeds and with SKC persisting. Extended Outlook...VFR. Showers possible Wednesday and Thursday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM Sunday...High pressure will slowly build across the waters from the NW and W this afternoon. High pressure will begin to ridge south across the waters later tonight, veering winds to the NNW and N late. Wind speeds will be up to 10 to 15 kt this period. Seas will be 1 to 2 ft. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday....Weak high pressure transiting the waters will keep winds in the 10 to 15 kt through much of the period. Seas will remain right around 2 ft for both days for most places, with 3 footers present well offshore. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Sunday...A return flow develops on Wednesday as high pressure takes residence over the western Atlantic. A S to SW wind around 10 kts or less will persist Wed and Thurs in a more Spring-like pattern. Winds will back and spike up each afternoon near shore as sea breeze develops. Seas will remain 3 ft or less through the period with a slight increase by Fri morning as southerly winds begin to increase. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...JDW MARINE...

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