Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 262220 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 620 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A front will lift north tonight while a cold front approaches from the west. This second boundary will stall to our west until moving again later in the week and pushing through late Thursday. Drier air will then build in over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 615 PM Monday...Most convection has faded this evening with just a few tiny showers left over. High-res guidance shows that this will be about it for the remainder of the evening, just a few stray showers with most places staying dry. No changes needed to the forecast. Previous discussion follows: The stationary front that was located just to the south of the forecast area is slowly moving northward as the observations at Kingstree and Georgetown are now reporting a more northeast and east flow with increased dewpoint seen at Kingstree. The water vapor imagery also is indicting the mid and upper moisture has begun it shift northward. Scattered convection has developed along a boundary from Longs, SC to Kingstree. So will continue with a slight chance of POPs from SC this evening. The models continue to show the development of a coastal trough with a low pressure area forming and moving up the coast just offshore on late tonight. So with this low pressure area will increase precipitation chances to ~30-40% along the coast and a 20% chance inland.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...The short term forecast period will be marked with a cold front sliding into the forecast area and then stalling. This front will be a focal point for showers and isolated thunderstorms each day. On the synoptic scale a large upper-level low just north of Lake Superior will shift to Ohio Valley by Wednesday night. This feature will be bringing a significant air mass change but this does not begin until after the short term forecast period. The slow moving cold front will be the focus for the heaviest rain on Wednesday into Wedensday night with QPF values running between just over 1". Maximum Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to rise to the middle 80s with the warmer temperatures west of Interstate 95. For lower temperatures values will range from the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Cold front to come through on Thursday according to the slightly preferred GFS though some proverbial points to be made regarding how early or late in the day or at night. Still worth noting that the EC is still much slower with FROPA not until Friday night-a solution that WPC is still not able to rule out. Even with the large and stalled low pinwheeling over the OH valley over the weekend we will remain well in the dry slot by Friday (unless EC is correct) which should bring quiet weather. We may not get into the much cooler air however as it appeared recently and the later part of the period may simply bring seasonable weather. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 18Z...Onshore E-ENE winds 7-13 knots at coastal terminals and 3-7 knots inland until 1z, becoming light and variable over night. After 9z areas of inland VSBY 1-2 SM in BR until 14z. Surface winds aft 14z NE-ENE 4-9 knots. Isolated showers this afternoon at KFLO and KLBT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Scattered SHRA/TSRA Tuesday through early Thursday. Cold frontal passage Thursday. VFR expected THU/FRI. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...Latest obs show easterly winds of 10 to 15 kts with seas of right around 3 ft. This fits in well with the going forecast. No changes made with latest update. Previous discussion follows: A stationary front is located near the Georgetown coastal waters and is expected to shift northward overnight. To the south a coastal trough will develop with a low pressure area moving to the southern coastal waters by daybreak. Winds will mainly be from the east overnight at 10 to 15 knots with seas ranging between 2 to 4 feet. A 1 to 2 foot easterly swell is also expected to continue through the period. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...As a coastal low shifts northward along the coast, a slow moving cold front will stall before shifting off the coast late wednesday night. winds are expected to shift to the southwest tuesday night but winds speeds are expected to be 10-15 knots. seas will continue to run between 2 and 4 feet. Showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout most of this period. LONG TERM/THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Cold front coming through on Thursday though how early or late highly uncertain. There are in fact some currently not favored but still possible model solutions that are 24 hours or more slower. Best forecast possible at this time is to show a later day veer from W to NW with no appreciable change in the very light wind speeds. The cutoff nature of the upper low driving this front precludes any surge of high pressure into the area and so the post frontal flow regime stays light as well. NW winds should be in place both Fri and Sat with seas no higher than 2 to 3 ft.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...REK/DRH SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MJC MARINE...REK/MBB/DRH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.