Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 021844 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 244 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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UNSETTLED AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRYING AND WARMING WILL FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...AS EXPECTED...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY DESTABILIZED. AN ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDING DATA SHOWED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE COLUMN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...A DEVELOPING PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE FOCI FOR DEVELOPMENT. A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS IT IMPINGES UPON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER PICTURE ALSO LOOKS GOOD FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE...THE PRESENT FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STILL LOOKS GOOD...AS DOES THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND CLOSEST IN VICINITY TO THE THERMAL TROUGH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE INTO THE SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN CONUS. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF FACTORS COME IN TO PLAY...INCLUDING FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED MORE OR LESS ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL EITHER STALL OR SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE THEREAFTER. BOTH GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THEN. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL DRYING AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...SO EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...EASTERN EDGE OF OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINAS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. THE 5H LOW/TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD POOL LIKELY LEADING TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE WITH NORTHERN LOCATIONS THE MOST FAVORED. SIMILAR STORY...MINUS THE COLD FRONT...FRI AND POSSIBLY SAT. MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVERHEAD GENERATING INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE MOISTURE...KEEPING COVERAGE LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST. TEMPERATURES THU AND FRI WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO. BLOCK STARTS BREAKING DOWN/SHIFTING EAST ON SAT WITH 5H RIDGE MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR SUN AND MON. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WHICH PREVENTS MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN AND SETS UP DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN ADDITION TO SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES SAT NEAR CLIMO BUT THEN ABOVE CLIMO SUN AND MON. WEAKENING OF THE 5H RIDGE AND CONTINUED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS MON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN AS THE PERIOD ENDS. DO NOT THINK PRECIP WILL FALL MON DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...LOCALIZED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG SEA BREEZE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AS BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND FARTHER AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS ACTIVITY AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINING WEST OF LUMBERTON. THINK ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z. MVFR WILL BE THE FAVORED CATEGORY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH WED MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SE TOWARDS THE WATERS. SEAS OF RIGHT AROUND 3 FT WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE. WILL BE POSTING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT TO COVER THIS SCENARIO. IN ADDITION...THE WATERS WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STAY SW THROUGH TUESDAY AND ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADVISORIES TO BE POSTED...CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT FURTHER EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS. IT IS LIKELY THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE WATERS ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY ALSO WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING LATE THU AND THU NIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION AS HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO 20 KT LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. GRADIENT STARTS TO SLOWLY RELAX FRI WITH WINDS DROPPING FROM 15 TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS 10 TO 15 KT INTO SAT BEFORE DROPPING CLOSER TO 10 KT LATE SAT AFTERNOON. SEAS PEAK THU NIGHT...RUNNING 3 TO 5 FT DUE TO THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. SEAS START TO SUBSIDE ON FRI...DROPPING TO 2 TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 2 FT OR LESS EXPECTED BY SAT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...III AVIATION...RGZ MARINE...REK/III

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