Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 232147 AAA AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 447 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MILD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM RISES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST AND STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND SKIRTS THE COAST. SKIES WILL BEGIN A CLEARING TREND ON THANKSGIVING...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALOFT HAS LIFTED TO OUR NORTH EVEN AS SURFACE BOUNDARY LAGS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT THE ISENTROPIC UP-GLIDE ACROSS THE REGION APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT RAINFALL MAY BE QUITE LIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOOKING FOR RADAR TO FILL LATER ON FROM SW TO NE AS ENERGY FROM THE WEAKENING VORT NOW SEEN OVER MS IMPINGES UPON THE REGION. IN THE MEANTIME TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH RAIN THE AREA SEES AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE OVERDONE. THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AND THUS ACCELERATING...LOOKS LIKE ANY TIME SOON AFTER 03Z IT MAY START AFFECTING THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF STRENGTHENING DRAMATICALLY ALTHOUGH CHS AND KLTX VWPS SHOW THAT THE WRF IS TOO FAST AND TOO STRONG. ACCORD TO THE MORE TEMPERED GFS A SOLID 50KT AT JUST 925MB CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST BY 00Z AND AREA-WIDE BY 06Z. PAIR THIS WITH STEADY OR RISING TEMPERATURES AND THERE IS STILL A WIDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION TORNADOES INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...ODDLY MILD CONDITIONS TO ENGULF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65-70 TEMPERATURE RANGE TO GREET MOST AREAS DAYBREAK MONDAY...AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...LIKELY UNDER A CANOPY OF CLOUDS DUE TO EXTENT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE LOW-LVL WIND FIELD REMAINS STRONG MONDAY...AND ANY SURFACE HEATING MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...AND EVEN SHOWERS WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS. SPC MAINTAIN A LOW END RISK NEAR THE COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TUESDAY A POST-FRONTAL DAY WHERE WEATHER HAZARDS WANE. THE UPSTREAM TROUGH ALIGN HOWEVER WILL SUPPORT MORE IMPULSES RISING OUT OF THE GULF. CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA OCCUR VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND BECOME A WEATHER PLAYER BEYOND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND POP VALUES DO GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO THIS FEATURE LATE TUESDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPS MONDAY ARE ILM 79...FLO 83...CRE 76...LBT 78. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST OFF THE COAST WED. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE WESTERN GULF LATE TUE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WAVE JUST OFF THE FL GULF COAST WED MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF RAIN FALLS ACROSS THE AREA WED. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WED EVENING WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN...ENDING THE RAIN THREAT. SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND TEMPS CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 18Z...LOOKING FOR TWO MAIN AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...THE FIRST BATCH WITH A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...THE SECOND BATCH TONIGHT WITH A VIGOROUS VORT MAX. TONIGHT WILL BE INTERESTING WITH VERY STRONG HELICITY BUT NO CAPE TO SPEAK OF. NEVERTHELESS AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. VORT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION BY 06-07Z. MODELS REALLY BRING CEILINGS/VIS DOWN ONCE THE VORT MOVES THROUGH...WITH PRECIP SLOWLY SHUTTING OFF. THE MODELS REALLY WANT TO KEEP VISIBILITIES LIFR THROUGH MOST OF THE BACK IN PERIOD...BUT WITH WINDS OVER 10 KTS...THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. LOOK FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY WITH CEILINGS REMAINING IFR THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 445 PM SUNDAY...A NON-CONVECTIVE WIND GUST TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN THE PAST HOUR AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY CERTAINLY GRABBED MY ATTENTION. A GALE WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NC WATERS...VALID NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT. VIRTUALLY ALL SHORT- RANGE GUIDANCE (LATEST RRR AND RUC PLUS THE 18Z NAM) BRING A SWATH OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS IN THE 1000-950 MB LAYER ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT. THE ONLY FACTOR DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS DOWN HERE AT THE SURFACE IS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY INDUCED BY COLD OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT INHIBITED VERTICAL MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S SOUTHWEST OF CAPE FEAR ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT WINDS FROM INCREASING ABOVE 30 KNOTS EVEN AT 20 MILES DISTANCE FROM SHORE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 400 PM FOLLOWS... DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MARINE WINDS LAST THREE HOURS AS 41013 NOW A SOLID 29KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. AND WHILE A SHORT- FUSED GALE WARNING MAY BE PREFERRED BY THE NEXT SHIFT CURRENTLY HOPING THAT COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL RETARD MANY GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE DESPITE THE SCREAMING LOW LEVEL JET ALL NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN AFTER COLLAB WITH CHS THAT BUOYS MAY BE EXPERIENCING STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTS THAN NEAR SHORE WATERS ON ACCOUNT OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP OUT THERE AND THUS DEEPER MIXING. A STRONG ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BEYOND. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN DANGEROUS WITH SEAS OF 5-9 FEET LIKELY AND HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE FRYING PAN SHOALS. 20-30 KT SSW WINDS MONDAY...BECOMING WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. STRONG TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LARGE SSW-SE WAVES WILL MAKE UP THE SEA SPECTRUM IN MIXED WAVE PERIODS OF 5-6 SECONDS AND 8-9 SECONDS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WAVE RECOVERY WILL STILL BE UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 4 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD OF HEADLINES SEEMS LIKELY WED INTO WED NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO WEST WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM FLIRTING WITH 6 TO 7 FT. OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN CLOSE TO 15 KT THU WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE FRI AS DRY COLD FRONT PASSES AND BRIEF COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS. AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS WITHIN 20 NM IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THU AND FRI.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252. GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...TRA/MBB SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MBB/DL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.