Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 240126 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 926 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue the warm and dry weather through the remainder of the weekend. Hurricane Maria is expected to move northward a couple of hundred miles east of the Carolina coast Monday through Wednesday. Hazardous boating conditions, strong and frequent rip currents, and high surf are all expected to develop. A cold front is expected to reach the area Friday, bringing cooler weather for late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 900 PM Saturday...Dangerous beach conditions will persist through Sun and for much of the upcoming week. Powerful swell energy generated by Hurricane Maria will bring strong and frequent rip currents and a High Risk of Rip Currents remains in effect and will likely persist into mid and late next week. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for steep breakers, up to 8 ft and higher. Other beach hazards include a strong longshore current. Some beach erosion is possible during the time of high tide. High tide is at 1030p tonight and 11 am Sun. Low tide will help to enhance the severity of the rip currents Sun with one low tide during the early morning and another during the later afternoon. A surface ridge will persist from the north tonight and Sunday as Hurricane Maria moves north, remaining well offshore of the east coast of Florida and Georgia. At H5 an upper low will become positioned across the northern Gulf Coast. Relative humidity in the H85-H5 layer will remain meager with UVVs lacking through Sunday, thus no POPs are warranted overnight or Sun. There will be some fog around during the early morning hours once again, but this will dissipate quickly after sunrise. It will become somewhat breezy at the beaches Sun afternoon and eve with NE winds increasing to 15 to 20 mph. Above normal temps will continue. Lows tonight will be in the mid and upper 60s with lower 70s at the beaches. Highs on Sun will be in the mid and upper 80s with lower 80s at the beaches.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Mid-level high centered over PA-NY area is expected to hook up with the Atlantic ridge once the remnants of Jose dissipate by Monday morning. At the same time, a rather weak upper level low will reside over the Gulf Coast between LA and FL. And finally, Hurricane Maria is expected to slow down by Monday once the blocking ridging to it`s north becomes established. Flow around the upper ridging and the upper low will have a tendency to actually pull Maria slightly westward beginning by Tuesday morning at which point it would be at the 33 degree N latitude and 72.5 longitude. A couple of degrees in Longitude to the west at this point will be the difference for whether Hurricane Watches/Warnings will be raised. As for sensible weather conditions during this period. The FA is looking at basically mostly clear nights and mostly sunny days with the exception for the immediate coast where partly sunny may be the right wording due to the increase of exhaust Cirrus emitted by Maria. By Tuesday morning, could even see a few showers from Maria reach the immediate coast and possibly progress inland across the ILM NC CWA before quickly dissipating. With mid-level dry air and subsidence, ie. sinking air, occurring ahead of Maria will for the most part keep the ILM CWA pcpn- free. For Max/Min temps, looking at the continuation of summer like conditions with highs each day in the 80s and lows in the 60s to around 70. This is basically 1 to 2 categories above climo norms. Maria`s swell will continue to increase in size Sunday into Monday then plateau Monday night into Tuesday. As a result, surf conditions will surpass thresholds that require a High Surf Advisory. In addition, strong rip currents are expected and may occur at any time, not just low tide, given the size of the expected surf and all of that water that runs up onto the beaches. In addition, minor beach erosion is possible during this 2 day period, mainly at high tide where water may reach the dune lines of area beaches. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM SATURDAY...the big question will be how far offshore will Maria stay. The latest global models continue to show the center of Maria slowing down and staying just offshore Cape Hatteras middle of next week. A trough of low pressure will pick up Maria and carries it out to sea by late next week. At the surface a cold front will move into the eastern Carolinas and offshore by Friday. Cooler temperatures and drier air will move into the region for Saturday. At this time only a chance of showers is expected on the western fringe of Maria during mid-week. With the best chances along the coast mainly north of Little River, SC. There will be a slight chance of precipitation late Thursday and Friday. High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be in the middle to upper 80s but as the front approaches maximum temperatures fall into the lower 80s Friday and the upper 70s on Saturday. Low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s to around 70 Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Lows Friday are expected to fall into the lower to middle 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 00Z...Potential for MVFR or IFR conditions developing in the 09-13z time frame. Otherwise, expect VFR through the valid period. The reduced visibility will be due to BR. Model soundings continue to be rather dry in the low levels and are not indicative of stratus. However, based on what transpired last night, did mention SCT stratus below 1 kft, again within an hour or two of sunrise. The wind direction will be mainly from the NE. The strongest winds are expected during the daylight hours of Sun, 10 to 15 kt, with perhaps some higher gusts at KILM, KCRE and MYR. Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR in fog and stratus possible during the early morning hours on Mon. Brief MVFR conditions may develop at the coastal terminals as Hurricane Maria brings isolated showers Tue-Wed as it moves N, with its center remaining offshore. N winds may increase to 15 to 20 kt at the coastal terminals Tue-Wed. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 900 PM Saturday...A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. Powerful long period swell energy generated by Hurricane Maria will bring hazardous seas. Seas will build up to 5 to 7 ft tonight and to 8 to 10 ft Sun. The seas will be highest across the outer waters. High pressure ridging from the N will keep the wind direction from the NE through the period. Winds speeds will increase to 15 to 20 kt overnight and up to 20 to 25 kt on Sun. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...SCA remains in effect for the local waters due to increasing significant seas. The story for this time-line will be the increasing 15+ second period swell from Maria. Significant seas will peak in the 7 to 10 foot range late Sun thru early Tue. The sfc pressure gradient will be slowly tightening as Maria pushes or inches closer during this period. This will result with increasing NE winds Sun that will back to the North, Mon thru Mon night. Wind speeds will also be increasing with SCA threshold for windspeeds being reached. With the increasing swells, verbiage will be added to the MWW for hazardous navigating conditions likely across local area inlets to and from the Atlantic as well as the mouths of the Lower Cape Fear River and Winyah Bay. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM SATURDAY...This portion of the forecast will be controlled by Hurricane Maria as it moves northward and slows just off Hatteras. The winds are expected to be from the north 20 to 33 knots north of Little River and 15 to 25 knots to the south. Winds will shift to the northwest on Wednesday with the same speeds. Seas are expected to range from 7 to 12 feet north Cape Fear and drop down to 5 to 8 feet south of Cape Fear.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .COASTAL FLOODING/HIGH SURF/RIP CURRENTS...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 PM Saturday...A High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current Risk have been issued for all beaches. Wave power will increase as Maria`s swells build through Monday. Minor coastal flood thresholds may be reached at the beaches generally north of Cape Fear during high tide early Sunday afternoon and again early Monday afternoon. In the least we expect ocean overwash from the wave run-up from Maria`s swells, especially in those areas which have suffered erosion from previous storms.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
SC...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for SCZ054-056. High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for SCZ054-056. NC...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for NCZ106-108- 110. High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ106-108-110. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/SRP SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...DRH AVIATION...RJD COASTAL FLOODING...SRP/RJD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.