Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 251939 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 339 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A vigorous upper level disturbance will bring showers and some thunderstorms this afternoon, some of which may contain small hail and strong gusty winds. High pressure will build across the area tonight and Friday and persist into the weekend, bringing dry weather and increasing heat. A cold front will reach into the Carolinas early next week, finally moving off shore by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...A vigorous shortwave rounding the base of the trough and its associated cold pool is bringing the last of the showers and a few thunderstorms across the Forecast Area this afternoon. Through late afternoon there is a potential for mainly small hail and strong gusty winds with the strongest showers/thunderstorms. This activity will weaken through 6 pm as it moves offshore. Behind the convection, the skies will be clearing this eve and remain so overnight. The incoming airmass is much cooler and certainly much drier. Dewpoints will be in the 50s through Fri, unseasonably comfortable for most this time of year. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Fri will be in the mid 80s with very comfortable humidity levels and mainly sunny skies. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure south of the area extending from the Gulf of Mexico across to the Bahamas will produce a deep W-SW flow over the area through the period. This will maintain generally quiet weather but minor perturbation will ride across the top of the mid to upper ridge extending up from the Gulf of Mexico. This may produce some periods of clouds, but the best energy will remain just north and therefore will maintain a rain free forecast for most of the period. Have included a low end chc of pcp overnight Sat over northern tier of forecast area as deep enough low pressure traverses across the VA/NC border with a trailing front reaching back into NC. Otherwise, expect a good amount of sunshine on Fri. The h5 heights will continue to rise through Fri night and will remain heightened and 850 heights jump up near 16c on Saturday. The winds will back at the sfc bringing dewpoint temps up through the period and winds aloft will have a decent westerly downslope component. Therefore expect warming trend with overnight lows in the mid 60s Fri night up to around 70 Sat night. Daytime high temps on Saturday should max out around 90. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...The weather will becoming increasingly unsettled through the latter half of Memorial Day weekend. We will basically remain under the grips of high pressure to our south on Sunday with a warm and moist SW return flow. Aloft, the winds will be more westerly atop a ridge extending up form the Gulf of Mexico. Initially on Sunday, the ridge builds north with increasing subsidence and dry air aloft into the early afternoon, but the ridge flattens out as mid to upper trough digs down from the upper great lakes. This will push cold front closer to the area. There will be a general increasing potential for clouds and showers/tstms late Sun through mid week ahead of this slow moving front. It looks like the most widespread convection will come on Mon into Tues as the front gets a push south and east into and through the forecast area. Expect the surface front to make it just south by Wed, but it remains aligned SW to NE near or just south of area as a broad upper trough remains over the eastern CONUS. This front looks like it will remain close enough to produce unsettled weather over at least coastal portions of the forecast area through the remainder of the work week. Overall convection should be more localized Sun into Mon and become more widespread late Mon into Tues with a possible break on Wed as front moves south with continued convection mainly along the coast or south on Thurs. Mid level heights will continue to rise through Sun with GFS showing peak Sun aftn but remaining high through Mon. This will maintain very warm temps both Sun and Mon, crossing into the 90s most places. Max Temps will run in the 80s through the rest of the period dampened by clouds, and the moist air mass will keep overnight lows up around 70 most nights in a more summerlike air mass with a slight cooling as front passes through Tues night into Wed. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 18Z Thursday...A cold pool aloft is bringing the last of the showers and a few thunderstorms across the terminals. This activity will be moving offshore and weakening during the late afternoon. Brief MVFR is possible with the showers through 20-21z. Thereafter skies will be clearing and VFR is expected through the remainder of the valid TAF period. The winds will continue to gust up to 25 to 30 kt through sunset and then winds will diminish to 10 to 12 kt or so. Extended Outlook...MVFR conditions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms Sun through Tue. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions ongoing across the waters. Deep mixing will allow for sustained SW to W winds of 20 to 25 kt with a few gusts up to 30 kt through this eve and mainly west winds at 20 to 25 kt tonight. Winds on Fri will be 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt during the afternoon. Seas will be up to 5 to 8 ft this eve, subsiding to below Small Craft Advisory criteria by sunrise. Seas on Fri will be subsiding in general offshore flow, down to 2 to 4 ft during the afternoon. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...West to SW return flow around 10 to 15 kts will continue around high pressure extending from the Gulf of Mexico east to the Bahamas. Seas will be gradually diminishing through Fri night down to 3 ft or less. Winds and seas will increase slightly late Sat through Sat night as low moves across VA/NC border with trailing front. Seas will spike up a bit Sat night up to 3 to 4 ft. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure to the south will maintain a SW return flow 10 to 15 mph through much of the period. Seas will remain between 2 and 4 ft through the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...REK/RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...RJD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.