Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 181607 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1108 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cold and dry Arctic air, will spread into the region through today. Temperatures will warm into the weekend as high pressure moves offshore. Another cold front will bring rain chances by Monday evening, but little cooling, and temperatures are expected to remain above normal into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM Thursday...Morning update to account for more rapid progression of sky cover and slower temperature recovery, but otherwise forecast remains on track. The potent upper low is clearly evident on GOES East moving away from the Outer Banks, with very dry air flooding in behind it. PWAT at KCHS 12Z U/A sounding was just 0.13 inches which is very close to the record low for the date. This very dry airmass will expand eastward today, with W/NW flow aloft maintaining the cloudless sky conditions. Despite full sunshine today, temps will struggle to climb much above 40 degrees despite WAA beginning aloft. Cold surface high will persist much of today, with the cold dome slowly eroding this evening as the high expands from the lower MS VLY. Although 850 temps begin to recover through tonight, the atmosphere will decouple with decent radiational cooling. Therefore expect temps to drop off rapidly, down below freezing this evening once again and down into the mid 20s for overnight lows. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday...The surface weather pattern Friday and Saturday will be very quiet as high pressure over Alabama makes its way off the Georgia coast by Saturday afternoon. In the low levels of the atmosphere this means we`ll maintain a light west to southwesterly wind with gradually warming temperatures through the period. I`ve boosted forecast highs both days by a couple degrees, but even then this leaves me on the low end of guidance for Saturday where my forecast highs are around 60 degrees. For a month where our temperatures have averaged 7 to 9 degrees below normal so far, this will feel wonderful. In contrast to the surface pattern, the upper levels may become a little more convoluted as an upper level low ejects eastward along the Gulf Coast into the southern stream of the jet on Saturday. Some high clouds could move across the Carolinas Saturday and Saturday night ahead of this feature, but the near-absence of low level baroclinicity plus a poorly positioned jet should prevent the development of any surface feature. Dry weather should continue. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...The chief caption this period "Warming Trend". Even in wake of a cold front early next week, minimal cold air advection is seen, as the upper pattern sees a SE ATLC upper ridge gradually expand NW into the area. A weak cold pool aloft meanders eastward along the Gulf Coast this weekend and offshore by Monday, will little sensible weather impacts here. As a result, much of next week may feature sunshine and 60s in the afternoons, likely feeling like an early spring compared to the recent weather pattern. Aside from late Monday and early Tuesday, this entire period will maintain a dry column and low PWAT values. The coldest period, will be Saturday morning, near freezing, the mildest, perhaps just ahead of the cold front Monday into the upper 60s by afternoon. Tuesday looks to be the breeziest day in wake of the cold front, with W-NW breezes. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 18Z...High confidence for VFR conditions through the forecast period. Gusty mainly westerly winds will continue this afternoon. Temperatures will be below normal with highs barely in the 40s. Diminishing winds tonight with more cold morning lows. Moisture profiles do not support fog. Friday, continued sunny skies with a light westerly wind. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM Thursday...Gusty NW winds behind last nights cold front persist across the waters, and the ongoing hazards/cautionary statements remain unchanged. Winds will begin to ease later this morning and much moreso this aftn/eve as high pressure builds eastward reducing the pressure gradient. With the primary wind direction being offshore, the highest seas will be focused along and outside the 20NM boundary, but 4-6 ft seas are expected to continue through 1pm for the NC waters, 3-5 ft SC waters, at which time the hazards should expire on time, although may need to post precautionary headlines for a few hours once SCA ends as winds and seas will remain elevated until later this afternoon. Winds will back slightly to W-NW as high pressure builds in from the west through tonight, with center remaining south of the local waters. Overall, winds and seas will diminish leaving 2 to 4 ft seas and 10 to 15 kt winds by tonight SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday...High pressure centered over Alabama Friday morning will move east and off the Georgia coast Saturday afternoon. Southwest to west winds 10-15 kt are expected through the period with seas around 2 feet, primarily in east-southeasterly 10 second swells. Dry weather conditions are expected through the period. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Welcoming and friendly marine conditions this period, particularly in wake of recent weather. With high pressure offshore, a milder return SW flow will prevail, with seas 3 feet or less, and even 1-2 feet at times, with winds less than 15 kt. Seas will begin to build Monday as sustained SE fetch offshore, starts pushing wave energy toward our coast. By Monday night seas of 4-5 ft in 7 second intervals, may be rolling in. No TSTMS this period, but a few rain showers can be expected Monday night, as a cold front crosses the coast. Inshore water temperatures were in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ250-252. && $$ NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...43 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.