Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 231014 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 614 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper low will move across the eastern Carolinas today with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through the evening. The low will move offshore Tuesday as high pressure builds over the region. Drier weather combined with above normal temperatures will follow mid week into next weekend as an upper ridge expands from the Gulf states. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 614 AM Monday...No significant changes were needed with the early morning updates. Pictures from space show the heart of the cold pool aloft approaching SE NC. Previous discussion follows. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms accompanied by hail are expected this afternoon...as an impulse discernible in vapor animations over central Virginia snared in the cold pool circulation aloft drops S-SE across SE NC and very NE SC. Convection vectors will point from NW to SE and a pinned sea breeze could lead to some strong activity near the coast as low level convergence becomes slightly more enhanced there. The dryish H7-H4 layer will result in elevated DCAPE values capable of inflicting isolated wind gusts up to 45 mph with strong cells. SPC maintains only `general` thunder status here today since any strong to severe convection will remain isolated in scope...yet non-zero in any one locality. The morning will remain mostly quiet and sunny which will help set the stage for the impressive lapse rates May can be known for...one of the hail months. There will be a limit to the low-level instability since maximums will hold in the 70s. Interestingly...although less coverage is expected over NE SC compared to SE NC this afternoon...the stronger insolation could result in more robust towers over NE SC...so no one is entirely out of the `hail woods`. Look for convection to mushroom over NC and drop across and develop over SE NC and NE SC between 17z and 00z before a diminishing trend.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Monday...Drying and warming trends the primary caption this period as the upper circulating chilled pool lifts NNE away from the area and loosens its hold. Subsequent height rises and thickness surges will bring above normal temperatures by Wednesday...with some locations nearing or reaching 90...middle and upper 80s closer to the coast as the sea breeze circulation fully awakens. The coolest portion of this period daybreak Tuesday with readings entrenched well into the cooling 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 AM Monday...Surface and mid level ridging in place through the period will work to keep the region mostly rain free. Mid level moisture emanating from southern TX mid-week will move across the top of the ridge and over the east coast. The increased moisture aloft combined with low level return flow around west side of Bermuda High may allow for some isolated diurnal convection Thu and Fri. Mid level ridge builds up the east coast Sat and Sun decreasing moisture aloft but low level southeast flow will lead to increasing boundary layer moisture. So while cloud cover may be on the increase Sat and Sun precip chances may be limited by the dry air aloft. Temperatures will run above climo through the period. There is one potential fly in the ointment Sun. The GFS has continued to show a weak area of low pressure emerging from the Bahamas late in the week. The has been very little consistency with the location, timing, or strength of the low but it has been consistently present. Currently the CMC and ECMWF do not depict this feature and for now the low is being discounted. It is worth noting that the GFS sends a slug of tropical moisture into the Carolinas late in the weekend with an increase in cloud cover and precip chances. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 06Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions through the TAF cycle although patches of MVFR fog tonight are likely. There is also a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday that warrants VCSH 15z-22z as an upper low pivots across the area. Light and mainly N-NW winds are expected through the valid TAF period. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 614 AM Monday...Offshore flow today will keep seas behaved but highest outer portion...while very manageable marine conditions prevail inshore. Showers and a few TSTMS will move off land and across the waters in the afternoon to early evening and hail may fall in the stronger convection. Sea spectrum comprised of SE wave 2-3 FT every 9-10 seconds and a light to moderate N-NW chop highest outer waters. Any storms will move from NW to SE and could produce gusts in excess of 35 kt. Wind-speeds will ease overnight as a surface low offshore of the outer banks jogs N and weakens. Overall wave heights 2-4 feet...highest outer ribbon. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Monday...The main marine headline this period is a resumption back to normal marine winds typical of late May...SW 10-20 kt and seas essentially 2-3 feet. Shower and storm coverage will have ended for the 0-20 NM waters by Tuesday and holding through Wednesday. Dominant wave period of around 9 seconds are expected, so wave steepness will remain low aside from light and occasionally moderate S-SSW chop as the afternoon sea breeze matures. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 3 AM Monday...Bermuda High will be the dominant feature through the period with south to southwest flow across the waters. Gradient will keep speeds on the low end of the 10 to 15 kt range with the only exception being the increase in speeds along the coast due to the afternoon sea breeze. Seas will remain around 2 ft.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MJC/DL

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