Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 010603 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 203 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA INTO DAYBREAK. GOOD RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATES. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS JUST BEGINNING TO WOBBLE BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT. WINDS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED THIS EVE AND GUSTY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR 20 MPH AT THE COAST. AS THIS WARM FRONT MOVES TO OUR N DURING THE NIGHT...E WINDS WILL VEER TO SE. WE DO EXPECT THE WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP TOWARD MORNING WITH A SLACKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE WELL N OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR W AND SW ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME INROADS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND W OF INTERSTATE 95. WE WILL SHOW THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS W OF I-95 LATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS EARLY SAT MORNING. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT. A MID-LEVEL...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO INSPIRE A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE W. A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT...EVE TEMPS WILL TEND TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE ADVECTS IN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. A DEEP TAP OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL UP IN THE 60S WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SE OVER EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN THE 60S GIVEN THE PERSISTENT S TO SWLY FLOW. WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE COLUMN...A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING PWAT VALUES EXPECTING AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR BOTH DAYS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER TUE CONTINUES INTO WED WITH FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES TUE BUT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IS EXPECTED WED OR THU. SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW HELPS DRAG THE MOISTURE OFF THE COAST...AIDED BY A MORE POTENT 5H SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVE VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN AND HAS LARGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MIDWEEK AND ON FORECAST. NO MATTER THE SOLUTION THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND...WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING PWATS UNDER 1 INCH FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO END UP DROPPING BELOW CLIMO AS TROUGHING ALOFT AND MODEST BUT PROLONGED COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO LATER NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN WILL THIS OCCUR AND IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BECOME CLEARER AS THE EVENT NEARS. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z SUNDAY...IFR STRATUS OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. A SHIFT TO SOUTH WINDS TOWARD MORNING LIGHT. NO DENSE FOG BUT IFR CIGS MOST LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON PERIODS. SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATES. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT...VEERING E WINDS TO SE. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...S WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...BECOMING SW SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 15 KT...WITH SEAS 3 OR 4 FT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA TUE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT. FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SPEEDS DECREASING AND WINDS SLOWLY VEERING TO NORTHERLY. LACK OF COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK GRADIENT KEEPS SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS TUE NIGHT AND WED. SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVES WITH PASSAGE OF SECOND COLD FRONT ON THU. SURGE IS DELAYED A BIT...ARRIVING LATE THU WITH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT WED AND THU BUT START CREEPING UP LATE IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...III AVIATION...DL/MJC

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