Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281014 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 614 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. A WET FORECAST IS SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 615 AM SUNDAY...PICTURES FROM SPACE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SHOW SOME EROSION OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOWS RAYS OF SUNSHINE TO BREAK THROUGH A MID-LEVEL DECK OF ALTO CUMULUS THIS MORNING BENEATH THE THINNING CIRRUS. THE COASTAL TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE WAS SLIPPING A LITTLE CLOSER TO SHORE NEAR CHARLESTON SC...BUT REMAINED AROUND 15 NM NM OFF OUR VERY SOUTH COAST AND WINYAH BAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SINK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...AND OUR HIGHEST POP VALUES WILL RESIDE ACROSS OUR VERY SOUTHERN ZONES. THE AIR IS MORE STABLE OVER OUR INTERIOR SE NC ZONES TODAY. THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS WITH ONLY MINOR EDITS TO HOURLY GRID FORECASTS AT DAYBREAK. A SHORT-WAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE COAST TODAY BRINGING A PLEASANT AND SEASONABLE EARLY FALL SUNDAY. THE RIDGE IS PAINTED WITH WIND-BLOWN HIGH CLOUDS WHICH SPRUNG FROM TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO YESTERDAY. PARTLY SUNNY AND MILD WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MARK MUCH OF THE DAY. METAR AND AVIATION REPORTS REVEAL A MID-LAYER CLOUD DECK COVERING VERY SOUTHERN NC AND ABOUT ALL OF SC THIS MORNING. AM EXPECTING SUNNY BREAKS AT TIMES UNDER THE DIRTY RIDGE BUT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE IMPACTED A DEGREE OR TWO OVER SC. ALTHOUGH THE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE SLOWLY ERODED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...A WEAK CIRCULATION REMAINS EVIDENT IN RADAR ANIMATIONS. THE NSSL WRF 4KM MODEL RESOLVES THIS FEATURE AND MOVES A WEAK LOW CENTER ONSHORE INTO SC THIS EVENING. THIS IS BELIEVABLE GIVEN RADAR DATA...AND SEVERAL OTHER MODELS PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...GIVEN A PROPENSITY FOR ZONES OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE. MODEL SLICES OF THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY SHOW A WARM DRY AND CAP ABOVE 12KFT...SO SHOWERS IF ANY SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF OR OF LOW-QPF CHARACTER. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NOT EASY STREET BUT WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND A MODIFYING CONTINENTAL AIRMASS...MOST LOCALS WILL APPROACH OR CREST 80 DEGREE TODAY. POTENTIALLY SC WOULD BE WARMEST BUT CLOUD COVER MAY HAVE A SAY ON FINAL MAX-T DISTRIBUTION. THIS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY WHERE LBT...A NORTHERLY SITE...WAS THE MILDEST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MON THROUGH TUES. THE SFC LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH BUT A TROUGH WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ALIGNING ITSELF RIGHT UP THE CAROLINA COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PCP THROUGH LATE MON INTO EARLY TUES...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE GREATEST QPF REMAINING SOUTH AND WEST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH MON WITH PCP WATER VALUES REACHING OVER 2 INCHES IN A DEEP SATURATED COLUMN. AS THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES...SHOULD SEE GREATEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING FARTHER EAST THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE E-NE. BY TUES A DEEPER DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON BACK END OF DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT SOME CLEARING ON BACK END OF SYSTEM HEADING INTO EARLY WED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SHOULD SEE SOME DEEPER LAYER DRYING IN N-NW FLOW ON BACK END OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH WED THROUGH FRI. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTED AS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS LOW BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLEVIATE A WEDGE TYPE SCENARIO WED THROUGH FRI. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. TEMPS SHOULD REACH JUST AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ESPECIALLY FRI AS FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE BUILDS UP THE EAST COAST MID WEEK...SHIFTING EAST THROUGH FRI AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH FOLLOWS BEHIND IT. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH FRI WITH BEST CHC OF PCP FRI EVE INTO EARLY SAT. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO SWING THROUGH ON SAT KEEPING WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND BUT MID TO UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHICH COULD SPELL OUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 10Z...EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WEAKENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. LATEST RADAR DEPICTS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS KMYR/KCRE BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO CREATE ANY RESTRICTIONS. ANTICIPATE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MVFR/IFR CIGS ON WEDNESDAY/ POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 615 AM SUNDAY...SEAS STILL ROUGHED UP NORTH OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO PERSISTENT NE WIND...AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE MORNING FOR 15-20 KT WINDS AND 4-5 FT SEAS. SOUTH OF THE FRYING PAN SHOALS...WAVE SHADOWING WAS RESULTING IN MAINLY 3-4 FT SEAS INSHORE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SEEN ON RADAR OFF THE SC COAST AND THIS TREND WILL PERSIST TODAY...MOST LIGHT HOWEVER AND TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE GULF STREAM TODAY. SEAS 3-5 FEET OVERALL...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR COMPRISED OF ENE WAVES 2-4 FT EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND ESE WAVE AROUND 2 FT EVERY 8 SECONDS. OUR LOCAL WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS...BECOMING MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FROM THE SHOALS NORTHWARD AND OFFSHORE. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT A TROUGH WILL EXTEND UP INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BEFORE MOVING EAST TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER AND VARIABLE BUT OVERALL MORE E-NE TO START BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AS LOW WRAPS UP AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TUES. BY TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...THE WINDS MAY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS OR SO WITH SEAS INCREASING UP TO 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. EXPECT A DECENT NORTHERLY SURGE THROUGH WED INTO THURS WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MJC/DL

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