Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281630 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1230 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY. REDEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE HEAT WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS EDGING ESE IMPINGING INTERIOR NE SC/SE NC LATE THIS MORNING WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OFF TO A HEARTY START. MOUNTING SURFACE WARMING AND APPROACHING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS COASTAL INTERIOR LOCALS TO THE BEACHES. GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL ADD A FOCUS MECHANISM TO THE MIX. ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY IS DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S WEST OF I-95 PRESENTLY. RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE ANIMATIONS SHOW THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OVER THE GULF STREAM AND LOCALLY COLUMN MOISTURE IS DECREASING. THESE FACTORS WILL LIMIT THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SC WHERE THE MOST HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAINLY WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS TODAY AND ASSOCIATED ADIABATIC COMPRESSION WILL HELP SUSTAIN PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND A GOOD DIURNAL WARM UP...DESPITE THE POST FRONTAL REGIME. MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOKS REASONABLE. RECENT WATER VAPOR TRENDS SHOW ENHANCEMENT OF COLUMN MOISTURE STREAMING NE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS SO NO PLANS TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT. FRONT SLIPS OFF THE SC COAST PRIOR TO EVENING. LOWS MONDAY MORNING COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY WITH MIDDLE 60S INLAND TO THE LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST. WILL NEED TO ASSESS FRONT BEHAVIOR OVERNIGHT FOR POSSIBLE POP ADJUSTMENTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WHICH THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK IS NOW LOOKING LIKE IT WILL STALL JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. THIS IS UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE THE SPRING-LIKE DRYING THAT WAS FORECAST IS NOW LOOKING MUCH LESS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. THE REASON FOR THIS IS BOTH DUE TO THE VERY WARM WATER TEMPS IN PLACE OVER THE WATER...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOW PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST OF THIS AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY AND WOBBLE IN THE VICINITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD. WHILE THIS FRONT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN...THE MID LEVELS DO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY...SO CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY OR TUESDAY. EVEN SO...THERE COULD BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT GRADIENT MONDAY...AND IT WILL LIKELY FEEL REFRESHING INLAND...BUT STILL PRETTY HUMID ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE RETURN WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY SO DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ONCE AGAIN. WITH CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE THERMAL RIDGE REMAINING IN THE VICINITY...TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 90S...WITH TUESDAY THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES...1-2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70 MONDAY NIGHT...AND A BIT WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SUMMER LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SEASONABLE-TO-SLIGHTLY-ABOVE TEMPERATURES BUT HIGHER THAN CLIMO PRECIP CHANGES. BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BE THE DOMINANT SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURE...WHILE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE THE RULE ALOFT. THIS TROUGH WILL BE RATHER FLAT...BUT WILL KEEP HEIGHTS ALOFT JUST LOW ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTN/EVE IN A TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION. WITH THE SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS...THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS THE WARM TEMPS AND HIGH HUMIDITY CREATE AMPLE INSTABILITY...AND WILL CARRY CHC TO HIGH CHC POP EACH AFTN. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LIFT AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TRENDS TOWARDS ZONAL...AND FIRST GLIMPSE AT THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY LOOKS HOT WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUMP UP AGAINST THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...BUT REMOTELY SO. MAINLY A WEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE OF A WEST SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. DIMINISHING SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED. THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. COULD SEE AN MVFR CEILING AFTER THE SUN COMES UP. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...SW-W WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT TONIGHT. THE ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS MONDAY AND THEN WASH OUT/LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY. BY LATE MONDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REASSERT ITSELF AND BE THE CONTROLLING FEATURE ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS LEAVES SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AT 10-15 KTS MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY...RISING TO 15-20 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A LOW- AMPLITUDE SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY BY A SW WIND CHOP...WITH SEAS OF 2- 4 FT EXPECTED MONDAY...RISING TO 3-5 FT TUESDAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WHILE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS EACH AFTN INLAND FROM THE WATERS. THIS WILL LEAVE SW WINDS EACH DAY...WITH A PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT OCCURRING TO DRIVE WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15-20 KTS EACH EVENING...WHILE OTHERWISE MAINTAINING A 10-15 KT SPEED. SEAS WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL BE 3-4 FT MOST OF THE TIME...BUT A FEW 5 FTERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE 20 NM BOUNDARY EACH DAY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL/8

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