Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 270200 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1000 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...ILL DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OOZING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ATTM. BASED ON THE PRESSURE PATTERN AND COASTAL WIND SITES...THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE INVOF MYRTLE BEACH BUT NORTH OF BUOY 41013. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTH TONIGHT SUCH THAT IT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. ALL IN ALL...GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. SEVERAL DAYS OF PERFECTLY CLEAR SKIES MAY EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME THIN CIRRUS SPREADS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE MUCH-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS +16C...ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE OCTOBER AND LIKELY TO PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE COAST BOTH DAYS. NEAR THE BEACHES A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN WATERS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. VERY DRY AIR UNDER THE HEART OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MONDAY WILL GET ENTRAINED INTO THE DAYTIME MIXED LAYER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CRASHING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...LOWEST ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL CREATE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. FORTUNATELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE HIGH WILL PRECLUDE THE FIRE WEATHER RISK FROM BECOMING TOO EXTREME. MOISTURE RETURNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND EVENTUALLY NEAR 60 TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE LONG TERM IS SHAPING UP TO OFFER TWO OR THREE DIFFERENT AIRMASSES. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE ONE LAST DAY OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE LOSING GROUND. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER THE WARMTH OVER WESTERN ZONES BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD STILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FRONT, NOW FORECAST TO ARRIVE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY. THE SECOND AIRMASS DESCRIBED IN THE FIST LINE WILL THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT SITS JUST OFF THE COAST AND WAITS TO GET KICKED BY THE MAIN ENERGY MOVING INTO THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ITS TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER OR NOT SOME SMALL POPS ARE WARRANTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THIS PART OF THE SETUP. BY SATURDAY THIS ENERGY ALOFT CAPTURES THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM CUTS OFF AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SCREAMS INTO THE CAROLINAS. IT`S STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY JUST HOW SUPERLATIVE THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION BECOMES. THE GFS PUSHES 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 1.5-4C (NORTH TO SOUTH) ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS NOW WEAKER THAN ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS BUT STILL PUSHES THE UNWELCOME 850MB 0C LINE SOUTH OF THE NC/SC STATE BORDER. OUR CURRENT CHILLY SUNDAY FORECAST OF HIGHS JUST 60-65 APPEAR ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. WILL LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS HOWEVER TO SHOW MID TO UPPER 30S AREA-WIDE. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 00Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. EXPECT CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS. NO FOG ISSUES OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MIDDAY MON...LIGHT/VRBL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AOB 8 KT...HIGHEST AT KMYR/KCRE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR/TEMPO IFR VSBYS TUE THROUGH THU. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE WED UNTIL EARLY FRI AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...WEAK SURFACE FRONT INVOF MYR BUT NORTH OF BUOY 41013 HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT W TO N WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND LIGHT W TO SW WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO N TO NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT ALL WATERS BY DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY MORNING...THEN OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO VEERING WIND DIRECTIONS AND LIGHT WIND SPEEDS MONDAY... WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-12 KT BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND LACK OF ANY CONSIDERABLE SWELL MEANS COMBINED SEAS WILL AVERAGE ONLY 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY TO BRING THE LAST DAY OF QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY MORNING WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT BUT A LESS DRAMATIC INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OFTEN ACCOMPANIED BY SUCH BOUNDARIES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND A COLD SURGE OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IS STILL GOING TO BE FORTHCOMING...BUT IT MAY END UP WAITING TIL THE END OF THE PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...31 SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...BJR

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