Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 221902 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 302 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend along the East Coast through Thursday, maintaining comfortable conditions. A return to seasonable warmth and humidity, along with isolated thunderstorms will return this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 3 PM Monday...Very quiet conditions through the period as the mid level pattern will be basically due west to east. At the surface an initial weak pattern will become much better defined as high pressure builds in from the northeast. With very low PWs, pops are not an issue and what few clouds are present (due primarily to upper level jet dynamics) should dissipate this evening and overnight. Guidance is in good agreement on middle to upper 60s for lows.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 3 PM Monday...The mid level ridge that will have been suppressed to the south builds back to the north through the period and somewhat to the west as well. The column remains moisture challenged as PWs hover just above and even on a few occasions below one inch. As for surface features, it will primarily be high pressure centered from the Delmarva region extending to the south and west along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Guidance is once again in good agreement on what will be essentially a temperature forecast. Expect highs in the middle to upper 80s both days (slightly warmer Wednesday) with overnight lows in mostly in the middle to upper 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Monday...Thursday brings a weakening high well to our northeast and a huge mid level ridge just west of the area. Expect full sunshine but also temperatures a few degrees shy of climatology due to the low level NE flow. By Thursday night into Friday the surface high is no longer discernible but the upper ridging holds fast. This should allow for a gradual warming trend borne more of solar modification of the airmass rather than thermal advection. This will hold true Sunday and Monday as well though the mid level ridge flattens some. Moisture will be the bigger question late in the period. Very low POPs for diurnal convection can still be argued for from a climatological standpoint but there`s little in any guidance to support them due to the mid level ridge and lack of any significant southerly component in the boundary layer.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 18Z...VFR. Near cloudless forecast aside from initial SCT080 BKN140 over portions of SE NC through this afternoon. NNE-NE winds at runways 5-8 KT then calm to VRB03KT AFT 00-01Z. SKC overnight. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. Dry air mass will prevent TSTMS through at least Friday. SCT040 at coastal terminals in the afternoons. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...Winds dropping a bit this afternoon as expected via buoy observations with stations below ten knots for the most part. This will continue for several more hours before a northeast surge (been a while since I have written that) commences as high pressure builds in for an extended period. Winds will pick back up to 10-15 knots. Seas will remain negligible as the increase in winds will not have enough time to change things appreciably. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...Expect very consistent conditions across the coastal waters through the period. The theme will be northeast winds mainly on the higher end of a 10-15 knot range with seas of 3-4 feet. The highest winds, which should occur Wednesday afternoon may eclipse the 15 knot range for a few hours especially across the outer waters. I wouldn`t rule out a few five foot seas here as well but these should be somewhat few and far between. LONG TERM/THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Thursday will still be bringing an atypical NE flow due to large high pressure centered well to our NE. Winds will slacken Thursday night into Friday as this high washes out. Later Friday there will be veering from NE to SE and then by Saturday some variability in direction should crop up though E should be the predominant flow direction. 2-3 ft seas early in the period will drop to minimal values Friday and Saturday.
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&& .CLIMATE... As of 300 AM Monday...Wilmington has now tied its all-time record for consecutive days with low temperatures of 70 degrees or warmer established back in 2012. We should make it through midnight tonight remaining above 70 degrees which means we`ll break this record by at least one day. Our forecast low Tuesday morning is 69 degrees which, if correct, would end the string of consecutive days at 57. Wilmington temperature records began in 1874. Wilmington`s Consecutive Days with Low Temperatures 70+ degrees #1 56 days 6/29/2012 to 8/23/2012 #1 56 days 6/27/2016 to 8/21/2016 <--still going! #3 52 days 6/22/1941 to 8/12/1941 #4 48 days 7/ 6/1986 to 8/22/1986 #5 46 days 6/28/1991 to 8/12/1991 && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MJC CLIMATE...tra

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