Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 121515 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1015 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonable warmth will continue through Friday as high pressure sits off the coast. A backdoor cold front will temper the warmth over the weekend slightly before it retreats back to the north early next week allowing for another warmup. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 10 AM Thursday...Southerly flow around west side of Atlantic high continues to spread low level moisture into the region. Abundant moisture and weak low level convergence along and just off the coast have been the driving forces behind light scattered showers that have been moving north across the coastal counties. Mid level subsidence inversion is keeping showers low topped, under 7k feet, which is keeping activity weak. Low level moisture will linger along the coast into the late afternoon hours before shifting farther east as low level flow becomes more southwest. Light scattered showers will remain possible for much of the day. In addition to the showers skies will be partly to mostly cloudy for much of the day. Despite the cloud cover temperatures will be more than 15 degrees above normal as southerly flow pushes highs well into the 70s away from the coast. Along the coast water temps in the low 50s will keep highs in the 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Ahead of an approaching but decaying cold front Friday, will spell another mild day, before some cooling Saturday as high pressure mediocre in strength noses southward into the area. A few sprinkles late Friday night or very early Saturday would not be a complete shock, but we are talking about very light QPF numbers, and yes in liquid form. Look for temperatures to run 10-15 degrees cooler, Friday to Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday... Ridging aloft continues over Fl/Bahamas on Sunday while a weak frontal boundary sits stalled just to our north. Models in good agreement in keeping the deep moisture and thus rain chances well north of this boundary. The upper ridge builds on Monday but the surface front sinks southward. These two factors appear to largely offset and keep temperatures a little above climatology. Return flow will push the front and warmer air northward once again Tuesday. Warm advection will continue into Wednesday and the pattern will start to progress, which should allow for a significant increase in moisture advection and thus the chance for rain. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 12Z...Areas of MVFR/IFR due to areas of fog will continue over the next couple of hours, with conditions improving to VFR soon after daybreak. An isolated shower cannot be rule out along the coast today, but confidence is low attm. South- southwest winds expected to increase to 10 to 12 kts by this afternoon, decreasing to light and variable tonight through the end of the valid TAF period. Extended outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions possible Saturday night with low cigs. Otherwise VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10 AM Thursday...Thus far have not had any reports of sea fog nor is there any apparent on satellite. This could be due to dewpoints still being a little too low today. Have low confidence on whether they will rise enough to generate significant sea fog but at this point cannot rule it out for the overnight period. Have pulled the mention of fog from the today but held onto it for tonight. Light southerly flow continues today with weak convergence showers popping up from time to time. Low level convergence will continue today and there is an abundance of low level moisture along the coast into the evening hours so isolated weak showers are likely to persist all day. Seas will run 2 to 3 ft, consisting of a wind wave and a swell component. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Thursday...As a weak front approaches Friday, winds will tend to W but speeds very manageable and non-threatening. Saturday will turn a little uglier as NE winds kick up to 20 KT as a cold front pushes south over the 0-20 NM waters, and an `Exercise Caution` statement may very well be needed Saturday as seas hit 4-5 feet, possibly 6 feet at Frying Pan Shoals. This wind-wave energy will co-mingle with E waves 2-3 feet every 10-11 seconds, so a bumpy wave spectrum will thwart joy rides. Sea fog/mist may lurk early Friday before winds go westerly. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Wind will be light on Sunday but with a front stalled nearby to the north the wind direction may be quite variable. Seas will be just 2 or perhaps 2 to 3 ft should some SE swell linger. Sunday night into Monday a more decidedly north wind direction will materialize as the boundary sinks to our south and a high builds in from the north. Some offshore 3 ft seas may have a better chance of developing assuming they haven`t on Sunday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.