Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 140524 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 124 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA WEATHER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE 0000 UTC SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVENTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INVADE THE AREA AS A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS WE USUALLY SEE WITH THESE SYSTEMS...LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN AS DOES THE MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE OVER LAND...SHALLOW SHOWERS DEVELOP IN STREAMERS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE TREND IN POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS INCREASING OVERNIGHT. LIGHTNING IS USUALLY LIMITED WITH THESE SHOWERS BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...NAM/MET NUMBERS ONCE AGAIN DID AN OUTSTANDING JOB SUNDAY AND WILL USE THESE SLIGHTLY COOLER NUMBERS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY GETS A LITTLE BLUSTERY I WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S UNDER A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE WINDS AT H8 AND H9 ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...PEAKING AROUND 50 KT AT H8 AROUND 18Z...STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES PEAK IN THE 250 TO 350 RANGE. GIVEN FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S...CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG ARE ON TAP. THESE FACTORS COMBINED MAKE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY. A POTENTIAL FURTHER COMPLICATION FOR TUESDAY IS TEMPERATURES. TEXT MOS BULLETINS ARE GIVING MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. UNLESS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TUESDAY...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAPPEN BUT IF IT DID...THE RESULTING CAPE VALUES WOULD REACH OR EXCEED 2500 J/KG. THAT WOULD GREATLY ENHANCE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND BRING A RAPID END TO THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. STRONG CAA SETS UP LATE AND MINS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR A FEW UPPER 40S SOUTH AND EAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. ONE JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND ANOTHER WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT SHOULD END THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...EVOLVING INTO A PERSISTENT WEDGE WED AND THU. NE TO E FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5-6 KFT WILL BE TOPPED BY A WSW TO W FLOW. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND THE DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK FORMIDABLE. THEREFORE... WILL REFRAIN FROM ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS EASTERLY WED NIGHT AND THU. AS THE WEDGE REORIENTS ITSELF THU NIGHT AND FRI...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH. THE LONG TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE...BUT DO DIFFER AS TO ITS JUXTAPOSITION. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE WEDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE DRAWN TO A POSITION VERY NEAR...IF NOT ON THE COAST. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER DURING THIS TIME. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES DO INCREASE FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MAY BE SLOW TO ARRIVE FOR SUN WITH PERHAPS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TRAVERSING THE AREA AS MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. COLUMN LOOKS MUCH TOO DRY BELOW 10 KFT TO SUPPORT RAINFALL AND SO WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THRESHOLD FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU AND MAXIMUMS MAY NOT EXCEED 60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. LOWS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT WILL BE WELL DOWN IN THE 40S AND MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN SOME INLAND SPOTS. TEMPS WILL RECOVER SLOWLY FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR POTENTIAL AT THE INLAND SITES OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOWERED CIGS...AND SOME PASSING SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. VFR PREVAILS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS. AS WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR FOG INLAND...THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPO IN GOING FORECAST. OTHERWISE MIGHT SEE FEW/SCT STRATUS WITH INCREASED LLVL JET. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR RETURNS WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TO AOB 10 KTS...AND HIGHER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FEW/SCT/BKN LOW TO HIGH CLOUDS INFILTRATING IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH LOWERED CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...THUS ANTICIPATE MVFR TO DEVELOP. HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH...AND WHILE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN LOWERED CONFIDENCE HAVE NOT IDENTIFIED IN GOING FORECAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH GUSTS SUBSIDE BEFORE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP STEAM THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CURRENTLY WE HAVE A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD EXPECT A RANGE OF 20-25 KNOTS. FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHEN TO RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE 0000 UTC WAVEWATCH HAS SOME SIX FOOTERS BY 0600 LATE BUT THESE HAVE INITIALIZED A LITTLE HIGH. WILL WAIT ON A SWAN RUN TO PINPOINT. HOWEVER IF THE ADVISORY IS NOT RAISED LATE TONIGHT IT WILL BE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. S TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT MONDAY WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT MONDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20 TO 25 KT TUESDAY BEFORE RAPIDLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT MONDAY MORNING WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT BY TUESDAY MORNING AND PEAK AROUND 7 FT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AFTER THE FROPA TUESDAY EVENING...SEAS WILL FURTHER BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS REACHING 8 OR 9 FT AT 20 NM BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING...WILL NOT ISSUE A 4TH PERIOD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BUT ONE WILL BE REQUIRED AT SOME POINT TUESDAY AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE INTO WED. THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND THEN EVOLVES INTO A PERSISTENT WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WED AND THU. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO WED AND IT IS DURING THIS TIME THAT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE MOST PROBABLE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH GALE CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME. ONCE THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS...IT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. THEREFORE...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO THU NIGHT OR FRI. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NE...VEERING TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION AS A COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED ON FRI. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST WED...7 TO 9 FT AND UP TO 10 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY AS A DRY AND CHILLY NE SURGE ENVELOPS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL LIKELY NOT FALL BELOW 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS UNTIL FRI.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...RJD AVIATION...SHK/SGL

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