Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271931 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 331 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...TAKING IT WELL AWAY FROM THE US MAINLAND. SOME ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND A PORTION OF THU. TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...IT/S HARD TO TOP THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH WARM TEMPS...LIGHT WIND...CLEAR SKIES...AND MANAGEABLE DEWPOINTS. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN ESTABLISHED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL. CRISTOBAL IS FAR OFF THE NC/SC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND IT CONTINUES TO DRIVE SWELLS TO OUR COASTLINE. THE SWELLS WILL SUPPORT AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THE EVENING...AND LIKELY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE FA THRUOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A RESULT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO STRENGTHEN AND DOMINATE ACROSS THE SE STATES THIS PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAKES A STAB AT DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD...BUT NEVER MAKES IT DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD WHICH BASICALLY STOPS ALL FORWARD MOMENTUM OF THIS BACKDOOR FRONT. ONLY AFFECT FOR THE ILM CWA WILL BE POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO THIN BROKEN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND ALSO LIKELY ONLY AFFECTING THE ILM NC COUNTIES AT ITS FURTHEST SOUTHWARD PUSH. VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ILLUSTRATE THESE CLOUDS. HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH SREF HAS NOW INDICATED CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA FOR FRI WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD...THE ATM WILL BE WARMING. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH THE FA LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 90S FOR BOTH DAYS...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LEANED TOWARD THE HOTTER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAXES...AND THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT INTO SUN AS SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN US COAST EXTENDS SOUTH. DEEP MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT CONVECTION. ISOLATED DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SAT AND SUN BUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCH THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS FARTHER EAST NEXT WEEK AND STARTS TO WEAKEN. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW PUMPS PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES ON MON AND REMAINING ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WITH DAILY SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH HELPING GENERATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SURFACE AND MID LEVEL PATTERN ARE ILL DEFINED SO ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AREAS IMPACTED BY MULTIPLE STORMS DURING ANY GIVEN DAY.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST. CRISTOBAL WILL NOT HAVE ANY AVIATION IMPACTS TODAY OR TONIGHT. IN FACT...THE SUBSIDENCE OUTSIDE THE SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS FROM FORMING. GENERALLY A NORTH WIND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED... MAINLY GROUND FOG. THURSDAY...VFR WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND DURING THE MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS FRI AND SAT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...CRISTOBAL SWELLS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWELL FROM THIS STORM. PLAN TO HOLD ONTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NC WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING. STEEP WAVES ARE POSSIBLE AT INLET ENTRANCES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FALLING TIDE. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PRESIDE WITH THE HURRICANE FAR TO THE EAST AND A WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...CRISTOBAL WILL BE ACCELERATING TO THE NE THIS PERIOD...PULLING WELL OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE HIGH SEAS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL BE LOOKING AT SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AFFECTING THE AREA WATERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT WILL MAINLY YIELD OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND 10 KT THU...BECOMING SW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THU AFTN AND NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY STALL AND LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL YIELD AN ONSHORE WIND 10-15 KT FRI INTO FRI NITE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE ON A SLOW DECLINE THU AS THE BACKSWELL FROM CRISTOBAL AFFECTS THE AREA WATERS. MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO SUBSIDE SEAS TOO QUICKLY WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT TAKE THIS ROUTE...ESPECIALLY AFTER CHURNING AND BURNING FOR SEVERAL DAYS LEADING UP TO AND AFTER THE BAHAMAS. LOOKING AT SIG SEAS TO START AT 2 TO 4 FT...POSSIBLY A FEW 5 FOOTERS OFF CAPE FEAR DURING THE 1ST PART OF THU. SIG. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT THU NIGHT THRU FRI. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZE AND DEVELOPMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS EACH DAY. SPEEDS MAY REACH SOLID 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT AT NIGHT WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY AS SOUTHEAST SWELL.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106- 108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SRP

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