Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 291926 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 326 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA SUNDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE AREA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 326 PM SATURDAY...UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE NE/NC GOMEX TO WEAKEN AND START MOVING ASHORE IN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL THUS OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE AND BE MOST PRONOUNCED AT THE MID LEVELS. LOW LEVEL WILL LAG BEHIND BUT SHOULD STILL KICK IN OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL THUS RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. IN THE VERY NEAR TERM SOME MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF CHS CWA APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO LIGHT FORCING AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON A STRENGTHENING OF THE LIFT AND LESSENING OF THE DEWPOINT WILL FAVOR SOME LIGHT RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 326 PM SATURDAY...KEY WEATHER CAPTION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY REMAINS EARLY SUNDAY ARRIVAL...FOLLOWED BY PERSISTENCE...OF DEEP COLUMN MOISTURE. WATER VAPOR PRESENTATIONS SHOW WELL THE UPPER LOW PRESENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF PUMPING VAPOR RICH AIR INTO THE SE STATES. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL HOLD BOTH DAYS ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SWAMPY...WHILE OPENING A WINDOW OF MIGRATION OF MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES NNE INTO THE AREA. DIURNAL WARMING AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM AFTERNOON CLOUD BREAKS SHOULD HELP SPUR RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BOTH DAYS. DUE TO THE ELEVATED MOISTURE CONTENT AND CLOUDS...MAXIMUMS WILL RUN NEAR TO JUST BELOW AVERAGE...WHILE MINIMUMS DROP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SINCE NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE WEAKENED.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 326 PM SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED STILL LOOKS LIKELY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE AREA. RECENTLY DEGENERATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA WILL MEANDER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN SIT AND SPIN ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE DIRECT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL...A DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL STREAM UP INTO THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. OBVIOUS PWAT PLUME WILL ADVECT INTO THE CAROLINAS AND THEN MAINTAIN OR REASSERT ITSELF THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES SPUN OFF FROM THE RESIDUAL VORTICITY OF ERIKA WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...AIDING LIFT EVEN THOUGH JET LEVEL SUPPORT IS MINIMAL. HARD TO FIND ANY SPECIFIC SURFACE FORCING MECHANISMS...ALTHOUGH A RESULTANT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH AFTN...AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN EACH DAY TUE...WED...THU...AND FRI...ALTHOUGH TUESDAY MAY BE THE LEAST ACTIVE OF THE STRETCH. WPC HAS 1-3 INCHES OF QPF DURING THIS TIME...BUT ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...FOCUSED MOSTLY ACROSS SC WHICH MAY GET INTO THE HIGHEST PWAT AIR. BY SATURDAY A SURGE OF DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING A REPRIEVE TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES...BUT THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME IS EXPECTED TO HAVE BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOWS THANKS TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED BY SATURDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 18Z...MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH MAINLY CONFINED TO THE CIRRUS LEVEL MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL SHOW LOWERING CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK, MOST PRONOUNCED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. WILL CAP THE FALL TO MVFR THOUGH SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS DO FALL TO IFR AT MYR, CRE, AND EVEN ILM. AT TIME FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE BUT NEXT SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO REFINE. WILL ALSO CARRY VCSH TOWARDS DAYBREAK ALONG SC COAST BUT THE RAIN ITSELF NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER ANY FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 326 PM SATURDAY...DROPPED THE SCEC A BIT EARLY AS SEAS HAVE DECREASED TO 3 FT AT NEAR SHORE BUOY 41110 AND 4.5 FT ALL THE WAY OUT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY 41035. CONDITIONS ARE STILL QUITE CHOPPY WITH EVEN THE LATTER BUOY SHOWING A WAVE POWER PEAK AT JUST 5 SECONDS. THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND THE LOCAL GRADIENT AND RESULTING WINDS WILL DO THE SAME. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 326 PM SATURDAY...A VEERING WIND DIRECTION PROFILE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OFFSHORE AND ALLOWS A RETURN FLOW. THE FETCH LENGTH OF WINDS ONSHORE IS A LONG AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED RELATIVE TO THE LOCAL WIND SPEEDS. SEAS EAST 3-4 FEET RUNNING EVERY 9-10 SECONDS ACCOMPANIED LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DOT THE 0-20NM MARINE WATERS BOTH DAYS AND MARINERS SHOULD MAINTAIN RADAR UPDATES. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 326 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SOUTH OF FLORIDA WILL DRIVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH FLUCTUATIONS TO NE AND SE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE OVERALL GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK THOUGH...SO WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 KTS...BUT WILL BE BELOW THIS THRESHOLDS MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...NO SWELL FROM ERIKA WILL ADVECT LOCALLY...SO THE WEAKENING SWELL COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS AT 1-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MBB/DL

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