Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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016 FXUS62 KILM 181858 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 258 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. WITH THIS BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO OUR SOME SOME SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY PLAGUE THE AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY BEFORE DRY AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE INTERACT TO BRING OUT A MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONFIRMS ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDING DATA THAT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE TRANSITS EASTWARDS OVER THE TOP OF A FLATTENING H/5 RIDGE. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE POISED TO MOVE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES TO AROUND 90 NOT TOO FAR INLAND. STEADY SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM MONDAY... TUESDAY WILL GROW QUITE WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. UNLIKE TODAY HOWEVER THE CAPPING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE GONE AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE DEVELOPING BOTH ALONG SEA BREEZE AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH FOR WHAT MAY END UP BEING PRETTY GOOD AREAL COVERAGE. INSTABILITY MAY EXCEED 2000J/KG BUT DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL BE WELL BELOW ANY THAT WOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH AS IT DECELERATES SOME TUESDAY NIGHT. IT THEN TAKES ON AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION WEDNESDAY AS IT ALIGNS WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAVE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS AND EVEN MINOR RAIN CHANCES OVER FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. COOL ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL ON WEDNESDAY...MORE NOTICEABLE WILL BE THE DROP IN DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, MOST PRONOUNCED NORTH AND WEST.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE AREA THU AS FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. COMBINATION OF SURFACE WAVE AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE ARE LIKELY TO GENERATE DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH AND WEAK SEA BREEZE THE FAVORED AREAS. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRI FINALLY PUSHES THE FRONT WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA...USHERING IN A DRY PERIOD AS DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITS SAT INTO SUN WITH 5H RIDGE STARTING TO EXPAND NORTH AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THIS SETS UP A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE COAST AND 5H RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH THE KEEP THE REGION PRECIP FREE THROUGH MON. TEMPS AROUND CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL TREND ABOVE CLIMO NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS NOT AS MUCH COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY. WINDS ARE SW-W...BUT HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SSW AT KCRE IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PINNED NEAR THE COAST SO THINK WINDS AT KMYR/KILM WILL BACK TO THE SSW THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND AT KFLO/KLBT LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH AT THE TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR SHOWER OCCURRENCE...EVEN LOWER FOR VCTS. THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME SW-WSW AT ALL TERMINALS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE ANY TERMINAL WILL BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED IS LOW. AFTER SUNRISE WINDS BECOME WSW-W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z IN CLOUD COVERAGE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR OUT SIDE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH 2 TO 3 FT OF SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY... AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE GRADIENT NOR THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GROW VERY STRONG SO CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO WHERE ANY CAUTIONARY HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. CONSIDERABLE VEERING ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA AS THE FLOW ALSO RELAXES. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS CLOSE BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT FAIRLY LIGHT. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PROXIMITY TO STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY THU INTO FRI WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS WITH DIRECTION VARYING BETWEEN EAST AND NORTHEAST. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS FRI MORNING AS FRONT IS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST STARTS BUILDING IN. AS THE HIGH MIGRATES EAST WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTH- NORTHWEST FRI TO NORTHEAST SAT. GRADIENT MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE DEFINED ON SAT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KT THU/FRI TO 15 TO 20 KT ON SAT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THU AND FRI WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT SAT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MRR

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