Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 161910 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 310 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Summertime heat and humidity will build across the area through Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase during the weekend as a cold front approaches from the north. This front may stall in close proximity early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...With dewpoints in the mid 70`s and temperatures in the upper 80`s to low 90`s, heat indices have reached at or just above 100 degrees across much of the area already. The Heat Advisory will remain in effect through this afternoon for portions of the area. Latest visible satellite illustrates quite the healthy cu field across the area, while latest radar imagery only shows a few showers and thunderstorms which have developed outside of the forecast area. With latest guidance, do continue to expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon into the early evening hours with the assistance of the the afternoon sea breeze and piedmont trough. Any convection that does develop will dissipate later tonight , with conditions remaining fairly quiet overnight with overnight low temperatures in the mid 70`s. Patchy areas of fog are possible towards the morning hours. On Thursday, upper level ridging will move into the Carolinas ahead of the approaching cold front which is progged for later this week. However, even with ridging in place, some available moisture, low level convergence and lingering boundaries, have kept in slight chance/chance pops for isolated to scattered convection. The heat will be of discussion again as well, as higher dewpoints combined with temperatures in the low to mid 90`s will likely allow heat indices to reach 100 degrees, with some locations reaching advisory criteria. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...High pressure will give way Thursday night as a Piedmont trough develops over the Carolina`s on Friday ahead of a cold front that will move into the central Carolinas by early Saturday morning. The deep 2+ inch precipitable water will continues its hold over the area through this period. Convection is expected on Friday and Friday night with the established trough and the approaching cold front. With the 850 millibar temperatures hitting the 19 to 20C range expect another hot day with possible heat advisories for portions of the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Cold front stalled either just to our west or even over western counties on Saturday while moderately strong trough crosses through the Northeast and MidAtlantic. Thunderstorm coverage should be elevated above the norm. Thunderstorm coverage may also not show the normal diurnal decrease due to the presence of the boundary. The higher concentration of storms will be over northern zones where there also may be a small severe weather threat. Temperatures will be running close to normal. The boundary will show little movement into Sunday but height rises aloft will be underway. Overall expect a downward trend in storm coverage and a warmer afternoon. Attention to Monday`s forecast continues to increase each day due to the solar eclipse. Unfortunately there isn`t much different in the way of thinking and even less fortunate the news isn`t great. True the front will be weakening but convective signals in the models are still suggesting ample moisture for considerable coverage of thunderstorms that afternoon. The silver lining could be the rising heights aloft, possibly capping thunderstorm formation until after the eclipse or at least its peak. Even so all it takes is one vigorous towering cumulus to ruin the view over a given location. By Tuesday the front no longer appears in the models but a well defined piedmont trough develops. Thunderstorms forming within this boundary and moving east paired with seabreeze activity calls for scattered POPs just about area-wide. By Wednesday some mid level troughiness starts breaking into the area in association with a large trough forming north of the Great Lakes. A continued moist boundary layer paired with energetic NW flow likely means a continuation of the unsettled weather. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 18Z...Potential for brief MVFR in any heavy downpours this afternoon/evening, as well as possible areas of MVFR with fog across the area Thursday morning. Otherwise expect VFR. Latest radar imagery remains fairly quiet at the terminals at this time, but just outside of the forecast area, showers are beginning to develop. Have kept VCTS/VCSH in the going forecast for all terminals through this evening. Any heavy downpours could create brief MVFR. Expect activity to deteriorate into the overnight hours. Towards the morning hours, patchy areas of fog may create MVFR, quickly dissipating after daybreak. Overall winds will remain light and variable through the period. Extended Outlook...A brief period of MVFR or lower conditions can not be ruled out in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through Fri. The risk for flight restrictions due to showers and thunderstorms will increase significantly on Sat and Sun. Low stratus and some fog during the overnight and early morning hours may result in flight restrictions as well each day. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Conditions will remain fairly quiet across the waters as Hurricane Gert continues to move well away from the waters, off to the northeast. Southwest winds up to 10 kts tonight will veer to the north and then northeast Thursday morning, and back to the southeast by the afternoon hours. Winds will remain around 5 to 10 kts. Seas will be around 2 to 3 ft. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Winds will be from the south and will veer to the southwest of Friday and Friday night ahead of a cold front that will stall inland. This will increase the winds from around 10 knots to 15 knots late Friday. Seas will respond by increasing from around 2 to 3 feet to 3 to 4 feet late Friday night. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...A front will be stalled over land over the weekend and into Monday in a weakening state. This boundary will serve a similar function to the piedmont trough normally seen during the warm season and we should still see a fairly typical southwesterly flow. Seas will run 2 to 4 ft for the most part, highest offshore in the coast-parallel flow. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Heat Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-053>056. NC...Heat Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ099-109. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...SGL SHORT TERM...HAWKINS LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL

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