Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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668 FXUS62 KILM 210542 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 150 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will drop south across the area this evening, bringing drier weather in its wake. Temperatures will surge back above normal for the weekend, with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms increasing early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 1045 PM Wednesday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: The cold front appears to have cleared the northern two-thirds of the forecast area as it continues to drop slowly south. Water vapor loops show plenty of dry air overhead and this is a big reason for the almost complete lack of convection this afternoon and evening. Have knocked back POPs to sub-mentionable levels except for over southern Brunswick County where a weak storm is still in progress. Expect a dry overnight period. Overnight temperature forecast of the lower 70s inland to the middle 70s at the beaches still holds. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Wednesday...High pressure will build by Thursday and will slowly give way to a developing Piedmont trough. The chances for afternoon convection on Thursday look to be shunted to the southwest sections of the CWA where the best moisture and any possible convergence exist with the old frontal boundary. At this time on slight chance of convection is forecast. For Friday there will be an slight increase in temperatures with highs ranging between 91 to 93 degrees. Lows will rebound on Thursday night from the lower 70s inland to mid 70s to mid 70s everywhere Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...With a ridge of high pressure overhead, hot and dry conditions will prevail this weekend, though would not entirely rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm on Sunday. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90`s inland and lower 90`s at the coast. This along with dewpoints in the low to mid 70`s will allow for heat indices to climb into the lower 100`s. Into early next week, high temperatures will drop slightly in the lower 90`s,but dewpoints will rise in the mid 70`s. As a result, will continue to see heat indices in the lower 100`s through midweek. With increasing low level moisture and the aid of the piedmont trough and afternoon seabreeze Monday through Wednesday, expect increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms as the upper ridge weakens. Overnight low temperatures throughout the period will range in the mid to upper 70`s. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 06Z...Sky has cleared and wind has gone light and variable as anticipated. This will allow inland sites to radiate to where some fog and perhaps stratus will develop. At any coastal location fog should remain MVFR at worst. Inland locales may dip down to IFR or even brief LIFR (mainly if a low CIG develops). By daybreak all terminals back to VFR. Winds will be N-NE veering to the E-S as the day progresses. A few showers possible near KFLO in the afternoon. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Brief periods of MVFR/IFR from isolated afternoon convection through Saturday. Otherwise expect VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1045 PM Wednesday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: A cold front is shifting southward across the South Carolina coastal waters and this front will eventually stall just south of Georgetown. Winds will shift across the waters this evening but ahead of the front light south- westerly winds will continue. Seas will continue to run between 1 to 3 ft with a 1 to 2 foot east- southeast swell. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...As high pressure builds over the waters the winds are expected to be generally less than 10 knots and seas will be in the 2 to 3 ft range. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...High pressure will remain in place across the waters through the forecast period. South-southwest winds will persist with occasional higher gusts up to 18 kts Saturday into Sunday. Seas around 2 to 4 ft are expected. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SGL NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...SGL AVIATION...MBB MARINE...SGL/DRH

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