Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
196 FXUS62 KILM 271724 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 124 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. A RAINY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SEABREEZE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW ITSELF ON SATELLITE AND RADAR AS A ZONE OF ENHANCEMENT ACROSS COASTAL HORRY COUNTY...CENTRAL BRUNSWICK COUNTY...AND NORTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY. REGIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY SEE ESSENTIALLY STEADY TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY IS BUILDING INLAND AND I STILL EXPECT TO SEE CUMULUS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FIRE UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS... IT`S BEGINNING TO LOOK A LOT LIKE SUMMER! HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER BERMUDA WILL MAINTAIN A WARM SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR +14C THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE OCEAN...AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BUOYS SHOW AIR TEMPS ACROSS THE WATER ARE STILL AROUND 70 NEARSHORE AND THIS RELATIVELY CHILLY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE BEACHES QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EFFECT IS MOST PRONOUNCED ON THE SOUTH- FACING BEACHES OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WON`T BUDGE MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. LARGE INLAND-TO-OFFSHORE AIR TEMP DIFFERENCES SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE A HEFTY SEABREEZE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. VERY SIMILARLY TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH AT THE BEACHES BY MID AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS PERHAPS EXCEEDING 25 MPH. THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING CONFIRMS WE SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON TO GENERATE INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG. THERE ARE NO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO ASSIST IN LIFTING...HOWEVER THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION PLUS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM LATER TODAY. FORECAST POPS REMAIN AT 20 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE TEMPORARILY STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE FA DURING THU. MID-LEVELS EMBEDDED S/W TROUGHS OR VORTS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...MOVING OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE THU NIGHT. POPS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY THU AFTN AND WELL INTO THU NIGHT. THE FORCING AND UVVS FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGHS WILL BE WANING AS THEY PUSH ACROSS THE FA LATE THU...BUT COMBINED WITH THE DAYS HEATING AND RESULTING INCREASED INSTABILITY IE. PROGGED 2000-2500 CAPE...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST UP TO 45 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE EXITING LOW OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL HELP DRAG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE FA DURING FRIDAY. SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S FRI NIGHT. USED A BLEND FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD...AND DISREGARDED THE HIGH GFS MAX TEMPS FOR THU...IE. 90 FOR LBT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO NC FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER HOLDING ON WHILE MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. ENOUGH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD BE PRESENT TO KEEP SHOWERS AT BAY ON SATURDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE S-SW THROUGH SUNDAY AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD AFFECT THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN SUN INTO MONDAY WITH PCP WATER VALUES INCREASING FROM AN INCH EARLY SUNDAY UP TO 1.5 INCHES BY LATE SUN INTO MON. OVERALL EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AND BEST CHC OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED SHOWERS SUN AFTN AHEAD OF SYSTEM...BUT MOST SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL COME ON MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON TUES AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH BUT OVERALL EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER AIR FOR TUES INTO WED. TEMPS SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 75 AND 80 MOST PLACES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY AND RELATIVELY COOLER AGAIN TUES INTO WED. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 18Z...VFR THIS VALID PERIOD AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE LOCALLY. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL PERSIST SW WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS INLAND...20 KTS AT THE COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE LOCAL BACKING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS WELL. SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE COAST...AND ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION FROM LBT/FLO AS CHANCE OF THE TERMINAL RECEIVING ANY SHOWERS TODAY IS QUITE LOW. WOULD PREFER TO HANDLE WITH A BRIEF AMD IF NECESSARY FOR ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS THAT MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY SHOWERS. WINDS WILL EASE TONIGHT TO 5-10 KTS FROM THE SW...AND SOME MID LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL NOT CREATE ANY RESTRICTIONS HOWEVER. AFTER DAYBREAK...SW WINDS AGAIN BECOME GUSTY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CUMULUS AND A MID-LEVEL CIG FORECAST. SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASES ON THURSDAY...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION IN CURRENT TAF SET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SEABREEZE IS ONGOING WITH RECENT WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM MYRTLE BEACH AND WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH INDICATING WINDS HAVE BACKED ONSHORE AND ARE INCREASING AND TEMPERATURES ARE DECREASING. NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS... IN A PATTERN VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SW WIND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH AIR TEMPS OVER THE WATER HOLDING AROUND 70 BUT INLAND TEMPS SOARING WELL THROUGH THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...A HEFTY SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP WITH WINDS NEAR THE BEACHES LIKELY REACHING 20 KT BETWEEN 3 AND 8 PM. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET (HIGHEST E OF CAPE FEAR) SHOULD BUILD TO A SOLID 3 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH WAVE PERIODS BECOMING VERY SHORT/CHOPPY DUE TO ALL THE WIND. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK TO CENTRAL NC DURING THU. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND TRAVEL ALONG THIS FRONT TO OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY LATE THU NIGHT. IT WILL AID IN FINALLY DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING FRIDAY...AND TO WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS DURING FRI NIGHT. A 1030+ MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SE CANADA WILL BEGIN TO NOSE DOWN THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU WILL BECOME NE-E LATE FRI. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THU AFTN AND NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE STRONG ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A CHANGE IN DIRECTION TO THE 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES PART OF THE EQUATION. A FADING EASTERLY 1 FOOT GROUND SWELL TO REMAIN PRESENT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SE BY SUN AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FLOW OUT OF THE S-SW. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DCH/JDW MARINE...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.