Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 121343 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 943 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS CONTINUING TO EXTEND BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PERSISTING SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH THROUGH TODAY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH 5H HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE A WARM AND PRIMARILY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES REACHING INTO THE LOW 80S...UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE NORTHERN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...WINDS WILL EASE...BUT A SEA BREEZE RESULTANT WILL DRIVE WINDS TO 15 MPH ALONG THE BEACHES. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONVERGENT SEA BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTN...BUT HAVE KEPT POP AT SILENT AS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR WITHIN THE SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER. STILL...ENHANCE CU IS LIKELY THIS AFTN/EVE...BUT SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED. TONIGHT...A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT IS EXPECTED AS WINDS DECOUPLE AND THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY. PATCHY FOG WILL BECOME POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER DEWPOINT ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...AN INCREASING LLJ WILL LIMIT TOTAL FOG POTENTIAL. INHERITED FORECAST HAS PATCHY FOG...AND WILL LEAVE UNCHANGED FOR NOW. FOG IS UNLIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD HOWEVER...AS MINS DROP ONLY INTO THE MID 50S...LIKELY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CROSSOVER TEMPS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS TO 330 AM SATURDAY...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...BY LATE MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDING ON BUT SHIFTING FARTHER EAST AS A DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH WINDS INITIALLY SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ON SUNDAY BUT VEERING AROUND TO S TO SW BY LATE MONDAY AND INCREASING UP TO 15 MPH OR SO AT THE SFC AND UP TO 30 TO 40 KTS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THE MID LEVELS WILL STAY DRY UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY WHEN WE BEGIN TO TAP INTO GREATER GULF MOISTURE. PCP WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM CLOSER TO A HALF INCH ON SUNDAY UP TO 1.5 INCHES BY MON LATE AFTN. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL CAUSE SOME CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT OVERALL BEST CHC OF PCP WILL COME LATE MON AND MORE SO ON TUES AS COLD FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT MAIN FORCING TO COME IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE AND LARGER SCALE CONVERGENCE AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH SOME SHOWERS FEEDING INTO AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPS WILL REACH UP AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UP NEAR 60 OR ABOVE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT WITH PCP WATER VALUES UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES TUES AFTN. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL SURGE INTO THE MID 60S WHILE TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 80S. DECENT DYNAMICS ALOFT INCLUDING A STRONG LLJ...DEEPENING MID TO UPPER TROUGH AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUES AHEAD AND ALONG COLD FRONT. WILL WAIT TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF CWA. COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA BY TUES NIGHT WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. MODELS HINTING AT A WEDGE SIGNATURE DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAVE LOW CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWING THE FRONT FOR MID WEEK. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SOME PERIODS OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND OVERALL COOLER TEMPS IN STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND FRONT FOR WED THROUGH FRI. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD...BUT WILL WEAKEN AND NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL GIVE US SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND STRONGER ALONG THE COAST WITH THE RESULTANT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS IN AND OUT OF THE REGION. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST FROM A HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NEAR-SHORE REGIONS WHERE AN AFTN/EVE SEA BREEZE WILL ADD 5 OR SO KTS AND A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO THE WIND. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS TO 330 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE COAST AS COLD FRONT NEARS THE CAROLINAS BY LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT S-SE REMAINING 10-15 KTS OR BELOW KEEPING SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE AND BUILD ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE SEAS BUILD INTO SCA THRESHOLDS BY LATE MONDAY IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS TO 330 AM SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACHES UP NEAR 25 KTS. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP NEAR 6 TO 7 FT THROUGH TUES WITH A SLIGHT DROP AS FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUES EVENING INTO EARLY WED. ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS A STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. A PINCHED GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS PRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG N-NE WINDS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43

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