Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 300816 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 316 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mild, southerly breezes will continue Wednesday as a cold front approaches the Carolinas from the west. This front will move offshore early Thursday morning. Canadian high pressure will bring cool, dry weather Thursday through Saturday. Areas of low pressure developing along a front will bring clouds and increasing rain chances late in the weekend through early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Balmy, blustery day on tap and although low, a non-zero chance exists for straight-line wind damage associated with a TSTM or even strong shower later today and again late tonight. KLTX VWP revealing a strong low-level wind return of SW 30-40 KT at 1-2 KFt early this morning. The SPC maintains a `Marginal Risk` of hazardous weather due to strong winds. A lull presently in precipitation will pick up into daybreak offshore, bringing occasional and swift moving showers onshore into the Cape Fear region, which may expand in coverage along the coast as short-wave energy in the approaching upper trough travels SW to NE. A secondary line of broken convection will cross the coast late tonight around 9Z/4AM just ahead of the cold front. Examination of low-level winds show a strong flow prevailing through at least evening so elevated or damaging surface wind gusts will be possible through much of tonight, before veering and easing into daybreak Thursday. With late FROPA minimums will be mild in the upper 50s inland and low to mid 60s by the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Take away weather headliner this period reads `Drying and Cooling Thursday and Friday`, in wake of a moderately strong cold front. Better cold air advection will arrive Thursday night as low-level winds veer to NW-N, while mid-level drying remains in place above 850 MB. This will result in a Friday that very closely represents the temperature expectation for very early December, whereas Thursday will remain above average prior to cool air intrusion. The coldest portion of this period is very early Saturday, widespread 30s inland and lower 40s near the coast. Sunshine minutes will run high Friday, in contrast to a day of clearing Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Mid-level ridge and surface high over the Mississippi River valley Saturday will shift westward to over the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday. Gulf moisture will be drawn northward ahead of a shortwave crossing the central plains, and will begin to spread into the area on Sunday. The surface high will move offshore, and a surface low is expected to develop along a warm frontal boundary off the South Carolina coast Sunday night, enhancing rainfall chances. Differences between latest GFS/ECMWF solutions regarding the progression of the closed low over northern Mexico on Saturday will lend to a low confidence POP forecast for Monday and Tuesday, but it appears likely that as this low opens into a wave and lifts northeastward, it will usher in another round of Gulf moisture, and will warrant POPs both days until timing becomes more clear.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 08Z...Isolated showers will pester the coastal terminals for the next several hours, with the potential for MVFR, mainly in ceilings rather than visibilities. Additional showers with the potential for isolated thunderstorms are expected with destabilization after sunrise, and more organized convection is expected to move in from the west late in the period, affecting FLO and LBT by late evening. Gusty south winds will continue in the gradient between high pressure offshore and a surface trough that will move into the Carolina piedmont this evening. Extended outlook...Potential for MVFR/IFR in showers/isolated thunderstorms late tonight thru Thursday morning. Otherwise expect VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 Am Wednesday...Treacherous conditions prevail over the 0-20 NM waters as S-SSW winds of 20-30 KT and seas of 5-7 feet strongly ruffle the ocean today and tonight. Fast moving showers or an isolated TSTM could enhance gusts significantly today and tonight. Winds will tend more to west after daybreak Thursday with dangerous seas still propagating in 6-8 second intervals and cross-wise choppiness from the WSW. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...While improved marine conditions are in the cards this period, no joy-rides offshore will prevail, as cold air advection cranks up late Thursday after a brief sea recovery. NW-N chop will ramp-up late Thursday into Friday producing a wave energy peak between 3-5 seconds into Friday. The offshore wind component will however result in smaller sea heights inshore compared to a pitchy wave quality offshore by Friday. No advisories are expected but an `Exercise Caution` statement could be needed for teh cold surge Thursday night and Friday morning. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...High pressure will build westward to the Mid-Atlantic region this period, and result in a component of N-NW winds both days. The gradient Friday through much of Saturday will be supportive of 15 knots, but will weaken late Saturday as the high center builds closer to the waters.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CRM NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...CRM AVIATION...CRM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.