Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 191844 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 244 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level disturbance will bring some cloud cover Wednesday and Thursday but nothing more than very isolated showers at best. High pressure will build in from the north for the remainder of the week while hurricane Maria passes a very safe distance off the coast.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Tuesday...Subsidence associated with Jose is still in effect over eastern zones but cu fields show it lessening as one heads south and west. However being mainly fueled by diurnal heating these clouds will thin towards sunset and most of the night should bring generally clear skies. The exception will be some minor coverage of mid cloud that should start to impinge upon NW zones late tonight ahead of diving upper trough/cold pool. This feature will remain over the area into Wednesday and even deepen somewhat. Whereas the mid levels should be cool enough to support some degree of cloud cover the low levels look too dry to support meaningful rain chances.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 3 PM Tuesday...Weak mid-level trough in the wake of Jose will allow for some isolated diurnal convection ongoing at the start of the period. Some of this convection could be extended into the overnight period by an approaching shortwave. It could end up that convection developing west of the area prior to the start of the period moves in from the west during the evening and overnight hours. Similar theme for Thu with weak mid level troughing and heating coupled with some shortwave energy leading to diurnal convection. Think chances a slightly better on Thu with convection once again lingering into the evening and overnight hours. However, the lack of large scale forcing and mid level dry air will limit convection during the period. Temperatures will run above climo through the period.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 245 PM Monday...At onset Friday Jose will be meandering off the New England/Mid-Atlantic coasts while Maria approaches the eastern Bahamas with weak high pressure in place across the Carolinas. Weak high pressure will remain across the Carolinas early next week as Maria moves northward off the Southeast U.S. coast. We will obviously need to keep a very close eye on Maria`s progression, however in the least we expect very hazardous surf conditions as large swells impact the coast. Held onto a small POP for primarily SC areas during Friday, then no POPs thereafter (ultimately dependent on Maria`s track early next week). Favored a blend of MEX/ECE highs/lows through the long term period.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 18Z...VFR through the period with N winds that will turn to NW or go light and variable overnight. A slight S to SW flow may become established tomorrow along the coast. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions through the period are expected with the exception of a few hours of early morning low clouds or fog most mornings through the period. The highest risk of IFR conditions will be in the 0900-1200Z timeframe each morning.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Winds slacken and Jose swell energy abates through the period. Flow will tend to veer some from W to NW as the outer curved isobars of Jose lift out to the NE. Seas will settle into the 2 to 3 ft range. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Elongated weak high pressure south and east of the area into Thu will yield to slightly stronger high building down the coast. Light southerly winds Wed night into Thu will become northeast late in the period but speeds should remain under 10 kt through Thu night. Seas will run 2 to 3 ft. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 PM Monday...Very hazardous maritime conditions expected during the long term period as large waves emanate outward from Maria. At this time Maria is likely expected to remain offshore as it moves northward from the Bahamas, but all marine interests should closely monitor the progression of this storm given forecast track uncertainty at this time. Winds on Friday will be around 10 knots from the northeast to east with similar conditions Saturday. Speeds will increase during Sunday out of the northeast as the peripheral circulation of Maria begins to come into the picture. Wavewatch III guidance indicates significant swells impacting the coastal waters, especially Sat into Sun. Very steep waves are possible, especially near inlet entrances during the falling tide.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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As of 300 PM Tuesday...The Cape Fear River will once again reach minor tidal flooding thresholds with this evening`s high tide at 10 PM as the new moon approaches. Coastal Flood Advisory being hoisted for 2 hours either side of low tide for standing water in Battleship Park and downtown Water Street. ET surge data continues to keep ocean/ICW tides below thresholds.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...srp AVIATION...mbb TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MBB

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