Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 032028 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 328 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND STALL OFFSHORE KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTION WHICH IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER TO THE WEST. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING THE CONVECTION SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 21 UTC AND CREEPING TO THE EAST AND TOWARD THE COAST JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE INITIAL THREAT IS AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO IT WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE BOWING IN THE CONVECTIVE LINES. THE BIGGER THREAT WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY IS THE HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SLOW MOVING LINE. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS RUNNING AROUND 1.8 WHICH IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND AS THE CONVECTION SHIFTS EASTWARD IT WILL SLOW AND THIS WILL INCREASE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT OF 2 INCH AMOUNTS IN SOME PLACES. LOWS OVERNIGHT AREA EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...RATHER COPIOUS RAIN EVENT UNDERWAY THURSDAY AS A FAIRLY FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER LOW BEARING DOWN FROM THE WEST. BY THE TIME THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD NET TWO INCHES TO TWO AND A QUARTER. THIS IS FAR ENOUGH BELOW FLOOD GUIDANCE THAT A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY AND WELL MIXED KEEPING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S EVEN AS TEMPS ALOFT GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FLURRIES ON THE VERY TAIL END OF THE PRECIP. TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FLAKE OR TWO REACHING THE GROUND DESPITE THE STRONG DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN DUE TO 34 S-1 VORT BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEAKLY DUE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM ALOFT RELOADING TO OUR WEST. MOST PLACES WILL STRUGGLE TO ABOUT 50 DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING START TO NEXT WEEK SHAPING UP DURING THE PERIOD. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SAT WITH ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GULF COAST...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SAT NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT HELPS SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA SUN MORNING. THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS NORTHEAST SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HAVE FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE CONCERNING THE LOWS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND ITS FORWARD SPEED. STRENGTH AND TRACK BOTH HAVE LARGE RAMIFICATIONS ON PRECIP TYPE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. INHERITED FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH WPC...IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS GFS SOLUTIONS AND THE 00Z ECMWF. THIS WOULD RESULT IN COLD RAIN WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN AS THE EVENT ENDS. THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS HOWEVER HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND SLOWER...WITH MORE SNOW AND LESS RAIN. THIS IS DOWN TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAVE A DEEPER SYSTEM AT 500 MB...WHICH MEANS MORE COLD AIR AND SLOWER MOVEMENT. SINCE THIS SOLUTION IS NEW AND NOT REALLY IN LINE WITH GFS ENSEMBLES OR WPC IT HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW...BUT BEARS WATCHING. STACKED LOW EXITS NORTHEAST LATE SUN NIGHT BUT BROAD 5H TROUGH LINGERS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS SOME COLD AIR BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM MON INTO TUE WHICH KEEPS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE. ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SHOWING 850 TEMPS RANGING FROM -10C TO -15C AS THE PERIOD ENDS.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BECOME WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH 31 KTS ALREADY MEASURED AT KILM WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. VFR/MVFR PREVAILS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...LOW CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A SLIGHT VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 4 TO 7 FEET NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER BASE ON LOCAL BUOYS AND SEAS ARE 4 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET. THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL IS SHOWING THE SEAS AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST REMAINING AROUND 6 FEET OVERNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW 5 FEET JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SO WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER THROUGH 6 AM AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION TO THE SOUTH. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY... OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY`S VERY RAINY AFTERNOON. AS A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES BY FLOW WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN SPEED THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE TO WHERE CAUTIONARY HEADLINES OR ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE LOW ACCELERATES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY ABATE BELOW ANY THRESHOLDS THOUGH SCEC-WORTHY SEAS MAY CONTINUE FOR A BIT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE WATERS ON SAT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 15 KT SAT STARTS TO INCREASE SAT NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS STEADILY INCREASE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH SCA LIKELY AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT. ANY GALES WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DECREASING LATE SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS NORTHEAST. WEAK GRADIENT BRIEFLY IN PLACE MON WITH WINDS BACKING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS DROP UNDER 10 KT EARLY MON MORNING BUT BY EVENING MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 15 KT...AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEAS DECREASING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD START TO BUILD SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH SUN...PEAKING JUST SHORT OF 10 FT SUN NIGHT. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON WILL BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS INTO MON EVENING BEFORE SEAS START BUILDING AS THE PERIOD ENDS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SGL

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