Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261711 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 111 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT OR WIND SHIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...STILL CRYSTAL CAROLINA BLUE SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND A NONDESCRIPT COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL ONLY A WEAK WIND SHIFT NOTED. WITH THE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE HRRR 12 UTC IS SHOWING A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPING BUT REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE COAST MAINLY FROM CAROLINA BEACH SOUTHWARD. OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...NO CLOUD COVER...AND LIGHT WINDS THE REGION WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. MINIMUM 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...GORGEOUS WEATHER TO CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH CONDITIONS MORE APPROPRIATE FOR LATE SUMMER THAN MID-FALL ANTICIPATED. SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO A POSITION EAST OF BERMUDA ON TUESDAY...CREATING A SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA RIDGE TYPE SETUP. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS DRIVEN BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAINTAIN ANOMALOUSLY WARM THICKNESSES LOCALLY. THE RAISED HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH WARM RETURN FLOW WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREE READINGS ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY BE APPROACHED (86 AT FLORENCE). TEMPS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE MUCH COOLER THANKS TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME A STRONG SEA BREEZE AS LAND/OCEAN TEMP DIFFERENCES EXCEED 10 DEGREES. MINS WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM BOTH NIGHTS...LOW/MID 50S MONDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT TUESDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EVEN CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL AT WORST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...ENJOY THE WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY...BECAUSE THE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT HALT THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE AWAY ON WEDNESDAY...TO BE REPLACED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...THE FIRST ON THURSDAY...THE SECOND LATE FRIDAY. THE FIRST ONE THURSDAY...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS NOW PROGGED TO BE A BIT FASTER THANKS TO A LESS AMPLIFIED /FASTER/ MID-LEVEL FLOW. FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OVERALL QPF STILL APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIMITED THANKS TO...AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...ONLY A "THIN RIBBON" OF MOISTURE AND WEAK THETA-E RIDGING. STILL...CHC POP FOR THURSDAY WILL REMAIN. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS INTO WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL PERSIST FRIDAY TO KEEP SHOWERS LOCALLY...BUT THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE RAPID DRYING BEHIND THIS SECOND IMPULSE AS IT DRIVES THE FRONT WELL FROM THE COAST...AND HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT COOL. THEREAFTER A BIG COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS STRONG NEGATIVE ANOMALIES DEVELOP ALOFT DRIVING INTENSE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE EAST. THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE SO WARM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. EXTENDED MOS IS ALREADY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMS...A SURE SIGNAL OF THE VERY COLD AIR ANTICIPATED. THE 25/12Z ECMWF SURE IS INTERESTING...BUT IS DISREGARDED ATTM FOR ITS EXTREME (AND NEW) BEHAVIOR. THUS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS COLD AND DRY. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...VFR/CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRYER AIR BUILDS INTO THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE W-NW AROUND 10 KT AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. COULD BE ISOLATED GUSTS TO 20KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR OVERALL WIND SPEEDS TO DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LGT/VRBL BY THIS EVENING...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF COASTAL MVFR/INLAND IFR CONDITIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG TUES/WED/THURS MORNINGS...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED EVENING THROUGH THURS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES STALLED JUST OFF THE COAST.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...THE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY THE BUOYS ARE SHOWING WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS...AND THE ONLY IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE TO VEER THE WINDS TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 10 KNOTS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE OUT TO 0.5 TO 2.0 FEET OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEARLY OVERHEAD DURING MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY...AND THEN MOVING WELL EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS CREATES A VERY WEAK GRADIENT MONDAY WITH VARIABLE WINDS...ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITHIN THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS...VEERING FROM NE TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY...WINDS WILL RISE TO 10 KTS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS...WITH A SW DIRECTION PREDOMINANT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS LOW...1-2 FT MONDAY...BECOMING 2-3 FT ONLY VERY LATE TUESDAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY CREATES TWO DISTINCT REGIMES IN THE EXTENDED. IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS...CREATING 2-3 FT SEAS. FRONT WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A DECREASE IN SPEED AND A QUICK SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2 FT ON THURSDAY...A CONFUSED SPECTRUM JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AS NORTHERLY WINDS ENVELOP THE WATERS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR

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