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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 141915
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
315 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT
WILL REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AROUND BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT. TEMPS
WILL HOLD AROUND 70 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DROP ONCE THE
SUN SETS UNDER CLEAR AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

MODELS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING BY TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT
WHICH MAY HELP THROW A FEW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CWA...BUT OVERALL CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP
OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THROUGH
THE INLAND CAROLINAS BY MORNING. EXPECT SW WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS MOST
OF THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS TOWARD
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.  MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND PLENTY OF WAA WILL BRING 850 TEMPS UP TO 13C BY
EARLY WED MORNING. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL RISE UP CLOSE TO 50
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES....BUT MAY BE A BIT TRICKY WITH
WINDS PICKING UP TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE A SHARP DROP
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND TEMPS SPIKING UP TOWARD DAYBREAK.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SUMMERTIME HEAT IS UPON US! A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL
BE MOST PRONOUNCED WED...THEN GET KNOCKED DOWN SLIGHTLY ON THU AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE COLUMN DOES
MOISTEN ABOVE 10 KFT LATE THU AND THU NIGHT...IT REMAINS TOO DRY
WITHIN 10 KFT OF THE GROUND TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL
NOT INCLUDE POPS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. WILL
HOWEVER...INCLUDE MORE CLOUDS THU AND THU NIGHT...GENERALLY OF THE
MID AND HIGH VARIETY.

RISING HEIGHTS AND AN INCREASINGLY GUSTY SW WIND WILL DRIVE TEMPS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MOST LOCATIONS ON WED WILL REACH THE MID AND
UPPER 80S. VERY NEAR THE COAST...A PINNED SEABREEZE WILL SUPPRESS
HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...COOLEST ACROSS COASTAL
BRUNSWICK AND SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTIES. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE
SIMILAR...BUT A MORE WESTERLY WIND REGIME SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
TEMPS AT THE BEACHES. LIKEWISE...LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...LOWER TO MID 60S.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS BERMUDA- TYPE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS OFFSHORE WHILE
ZONAL 5H FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS CREATES FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SENSIBLE
WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST
AND SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION. WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUING EACH DAY...PWATS RISE FROM AROUND 1.2 INCHES
FRIDAY...TO 1.6 INCHES TUESDAY. WHILE EACH DAY WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE FOR AFTN CONVECTION...SUN-TUE WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES THANKS TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BOUNDARIES...SEA BREEZE FRONT AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH. WHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH FRIDAY...ATTM DO NOT EXPECT IT TO REACH THE LOCAL CWA AS
IT GETS HUNG UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THANKS TO LITTLE UPPER
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE FROM LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW.

GFS SHOWS A STRONG VORT MAX DIVING SE INTO A RIDGE WEAKNESS AND
SPAWNING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHICH DRIVES A COLD
FRONT INTO THIS AREA MON/TUE. THIS IS CURRENTLY THE OUTLIER AND THUS
A CMC/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED FOR EARLY WEEK WITH CONTINUED
WARMTH AND DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO...LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS...AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR LOWS.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST RIGHT
AROUND TAF ISSUANCE TIME...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST. THIS SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...TIGHTENING QUITE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS
NEAR 25 KTS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. OTHER THAN
CONTRAILS...LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE BY THIS EVENING AND WILL THEN
SHIFT FURTHER OFF SHORE HEADING INTO WED MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE AND VARIABLE AS THEY LIGHTEN THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER OVERHEAD. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2
TO 3 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS FAIRLY DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHES DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THROUGH THE INLAND CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
AN INCREASE IN S-SW WINDS UP CLOSE TO 15 KTS BY MORNING...PUSHING
SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FT IN OUTER WATERS BY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN
BETWEEN A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO OUR W AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SUPPRESSED TO OUR S AND SE. SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WED
AFTERNOON AND WILL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WED AFTERNOON
AND WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS A RESULT OF THESE INCREASING
WINDS...UP TO 4 TO 7 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE
GRADIENT LOOKS A LITTLE SLACKER ON THU...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO THU FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND THEN SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...BERMUDA-TYPE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE EXTENDED CREATING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS WILL BE COMMON
EACH DAY...WITH ONLY MINOR DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS. A WEAK SE SWELL
WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN THE SPECTRUM EACH DAY...BUT WITH SUCH LOW
AMPLITUDE WILL CONTRIBUTE LITTLE TO THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
AMPLITUDE. THUS...WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A 4-5 SEC SW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/DL