Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 011915 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 315 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...COMBINATION OF MORNING STRATUS...A BIT OF WHICH CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF BLADEN...COLUMBUS...AND ROBESON COUNTIES...AND SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS DECK HAS THUS FAR LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING. SOME PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA HAS BROKEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE OUT OF THE PICTURE...BUT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE STRATUS DO THINK TEMPS WILL RISE AT A MORE STEADY RATE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF THE THICKER CIRRUS SHIELD...QUITE EVIDENT UP STREAM ON SATELLITE...WILL PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM REACHING 90 TODAY. SO WENT AHEAD AND KNOCKED BACK HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH THE UPDATE. THE LACK OF HEATING HAS ALSO RESULTED IN A LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO EVEN IF A SEA BREEZE OR OTHER TRIGGERING MECHANISM WERE AVAILABLE DO NOT THINK MUCH IF ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL HEATING AND LATE DAY SEA BREEZE MAY YET YIELD A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE BULK OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN ON THE DRY SIDE. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHC POP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PLAN TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POP OVERNIGHT AS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THIS AND GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL LONG WAVE H/5 TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST ALOFT OVER EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH INLAND. THIS COMBINATION WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH P/W VALUES UP AROUND 2 INCHES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR THESE REASONS WE CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES WILL BE IFFY SO DO NOT THINK WE CAN YET PIN DOWN WHEN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL HAPPEN. OTHER TRIGGERS TO CONVECTION WILL ALSO EXIST...WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE FRONT FURTHER COMPLICATING THE PICTURE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO STAY STALLED CLOSE TO THE NC/VA BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS PAIRED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY PIEDMONT TROUGH AND WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH SUBTLY CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR NORMAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON, IF NOT A BIT MORE. ALSO, INSTABILITY MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS SLOW THE DECOUPLING PROCESS AND THIS LINGERING INSTABILITY `BENEFITS` FROM THE OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE-INDUCED PVA FOR LIFT. MODELS HONING IN ON AN INTERESTING POSSIBILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY WEAKLY CUT OFF. TROUBLE IS THEY SEEM TO THINK THE POSSIBILITIES OF WHERE THIS OCCURS RANGE FROM GA TO PA. FAIR TO SAY THAT MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN AND RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY AT OR ABOVE THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO RECEDE BUT EXPECT VFR EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE. THE CLOUD COVER EARLIER HAS IMPEDED HEATING BUT EXPECT A QUICK RECOVERY AND FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO BUBBLE UP SHORTLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SW-W WINDS 5-10 KT EXPECTED TODAY...EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AROUND 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW-W WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE IN THE PERIOD AS GRADIENT RELAXES. ALTHOUGH PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT IT WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...GIVING THE NEARSHORE GRADIENT A CHANCE TO RELAX. SEAS WILL RUN 4 TO 5 FT WELL AWAY FROM SHORE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO 3 TO 4 FT AS THU MORNING. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL PUMP WINDS UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND 4 TO 7 FT ON FRIDAY. EXPECT THAT WE WILL POST EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRENGTH MAY BE MODULATED BY WHERE THE BOUNDARY REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM STALLS. IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE IT REMAINS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY ALSO WASH OUT OR WEAKEN WHEN COMPARED TO ITS POSSIBLE STRENGTH LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REK NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...MRR MARINE...REK/III/RGZ

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