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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 281734
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1234 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TODAY AND
OVERHEAD THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A GOOD RAIN SOAKING IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1234 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH
THE MIDDAY UPDATE...CLEAR AND COOL WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL EVEN FOR LATE JANUARY STANDARDS. THE PREVIOUS MORNING
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE N WILL REINFORCE THE
DRY AND CHILLY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY. DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS CONFIRM THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. 850 MB TEMPS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MINUS 5 TO MINUS 8 DEG C THIS MORNING. A
CHILLING NORTH WIND WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S EARLY THIS MORNING. COMPLIMENTS OF BRIGHT
SUNSHINE...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S...SO A SIMILAR RANGE TO TUE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN
THIS MORNING WITH LOWER TO MID 20S DOMINATING. THE BEACHES WILL BE
CLOSER TO 30 DEGREES.

DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UNDER A QUARTER INCH. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL
QUICKLY OVERCOME ANY SHALLOW CUMULUS THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP AROUND 5
KFT. THUS...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY CLOUDS SKIRTING MAINLY THE CAPE FEAR
REGION THIS MORNING...DUE TO THE PERIPHERAL EFFECTS OF NEW ENGLAND
LOW PRESSURE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE ON THU.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AS
WINDS QUICKLY GO CALM. THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING ACROSS MID AMERICA
MAY BRING SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TOWARD
THU MORNING...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURS MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST
DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY THURS
EVE. INITIALLY A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AT THE SFC WHILE
WINDS ALOFT REMAIN MORE WESTERLY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST LEAVING MORE
OF A ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. ENERGY UPSTREAM IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL DRIVE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EAST ON THURS.
THEREFORE EXPECT MAINLY CIRRUS AROUND ON THURS BUT AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EAST FURTHER...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS THURS NIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL COME AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK IN W-SW FLOW. PCP
WATER VALUES REACH UP CLOSER TO AN INCH BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE COLUMN...THE
LOWEST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REMAINS DRIER AND WILL NOT
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE BRIEF AND
LIMITED MORE ABOVE 5K FT. THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE LOW END POPS BUT
NOT MUCH AT ALL IN TERMS OF QPF.

PCP WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY
FRI AFTN AS WE TAP INTO COLD CANADIAN AIR IN DEEP NW FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRI AND DROP TO BELOW FREEZING FRI NIGHT IN
CONTINUED CAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING OVERHEAD BY SAT NIGHT. AFTER A
COLD START SAT MORNING...TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE 40S MOST
PLACES. THE BEST CAA WILL SHUT OFF BY SAT NIGHT BUT MORE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN BELOW FREEZING MOST
PLACES SAT NIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING NEXT SYSTEM
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING COLD FRONT EAST
AS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PCP
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
BY MON AFTN BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AND COLD AIR FOR MID
WEEK. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START WILL WARM CLOSER TO 60 BY MONDAY
IN RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE S-SW. 850 TEMPS DOWN NEAR 0C ON SATURDAY
WILL REBOUND UP CLOSE TO 11C BY MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE
WILL COME IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS INITIALLY...THE COLUMN WILL
BECOME SATURATED SUN NIGHT WITH GREATEST CHC OF PCP AT THAT TIME.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE IN DECENT WAA KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 40S MOST
PLACES SUN NIGHT. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ONCE
AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUES.

WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEG EARLY THIS
MORNING. COMPLIMENTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...SO A SIMILAR RANGE TO TUE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH LOWER TO MID 20S
DOMINATING. THE BEACHES WILL BE CLOSER TO 30 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND INTO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY...KEEPING US CLOUD-FREE WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10
KT. COULD SEE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...BUT BY SUNSET WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE AIR MASS IS FAR TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI...
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1234 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
THE MIDDAY UPDATE. THE CAUTIONARY HEADLINE EXPIRED AT NOON. THE
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE N WILL BRING A PROGRESSIVELY SLACK
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD
OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DRY/CHILLY SURGE...NEAR
20 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 15 TO 20 KT FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS...THE DIRECTION WILL BE N. SEAS WILL ALSO BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING...3 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING TO 10 TO
15 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE DIRECTION VERY SLOWLY
VEERS TO NNE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND 2 FT
OR LESS BY THU MORNING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURS
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE
SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST THURS NIGHT. RETURN FLOW LATE THU WILL INCREASE UP TO A
20 KTS OR SO THU NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY FRI MORNING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL VEER AROUND SLOWLY TO THE N-NW
THROUGH FRI NIGHT REMAINING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS. SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL
DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REACHING CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS
OVERNIGHT THURS. SEAS WILL DROP SLIGHTLY IN NW-N FLOW ON BACK END
BUT WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OVER THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NW SETTLING OVERHEAD ON SAT.
SEAS WILL DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN 3 FT MOST WATERS BY SAT AFTN INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A RAPID RISE IN SEAS SUNDAY EVE INTO
SUN NIGHT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/8