Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241011 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 611 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will expand across the Carolinas bringing increasingly hot and humid conditions through the end of the weekend and much of next week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon, and heat advisories will likely be needed each day beginning Sunday. Chance of thunderstorms should increase heading into next weekend as ridge aloft begins to weaken. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 615 AM Sunday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: A massive and very dry ridge building aloft will contribute to potentially dangerous levels of heat this afternoon. At the surface the Bermuda high will continue to dominate, bringing a very moist and warm south to southwesterly flow to the region for today and tonight. Temperatures will once again climb above normal, with highs in the mid 90s most locations and in the lower 90s at the beaches. With dewpoints in the mid 70s we can expect heat indices this afternoon to range right around 105F. A Heat Advisory thus remains in place area-wide. A lack of both moisture aloft and significantly strong forcing will greatly limit coverage of convection today. For this afternoon and early evening the best we we can expect is isolated sea-breeze forced convection primarily focused along the coastal counties.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Sunday...A hot and humid airmass will continue to dominate the eastern Carolinas as a broad, flat ridge prevails aloft and the Bermuda high persists at the surface. A thermal trough will strengthen each afternoon over the central Carolinas. Both days will feature afternoon heat index values exceeding 100F, and it is possible that heat advisories will be issued for parts of the forecast area on both days. Much like on Sunday, very dry air aloft and lack of strong forcing will limit convective coverage to isolated storms each day, primarily along the sea breeze front and any other boundries that happen by. Although will be capping pops on Tuesday to slight chance, we may see more wider coverage of convection on Tuesday night as slightly deeper moisture may be advecting in. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM Sunday...Hot weather will continue as ridge holds over the Carolinas through the mid to upper levels. Latest model runs do not weaken the ridge until we head into next weekend when upper trough finally pushes a cold front toward the area. Although heights drop slightly, do not expect much change in air mass with temps reaching into the mid 90s most days with dewpoint temps holding in the mid 70s most places. Expect heat advisories to be issued through at least Thurs. As the atlantic ridge builds westward through mid week, a deeper westerly component to the wind will aid in greater downsloping and warmer temps, but may also help to steer clouds and upstream convection toward the area, as well as, aid in convergence closer to the coast. Overall expect mid levels to remain dry and warm with limited potential for convection through Fri. Will keep mainly iso to sct shwrs/tstms each aftn associated with sea breeze boundary and other localized boundaries, and along the piedmont trough inland. Gradient will tighten heading into Friday with stronger and gustier SW winds as ridge finally begins to break down and cold front gets a push closer to the area. Expect convection to kick up a notch on Saturday as mid to upper trough digs down pushing a cold front into the Carolinas. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 06Z...Ridge of high pressure extends over the Carolinas with a light southerly return flow at the surface providing a warm and moist air mass. A few shwrs may develop just off the coast early morning as land breeze develops and these may get pushed on shore in the morning. Overall expect winds to back to the south in the aftn sea breeze and veer to the SW in land breeze overnight. Showers should develop along sea breeze front toward early aftn as it pushes inland and much farther inland along the piedmont trough, but with ridge overhead do not expect support for more than isolated convection. Have included only VCTS for coastal terminals with steering flow pushing most showers off to the north. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon convection Tuesday through Thursday may create periods of MVFR/IFR. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 615 AM Sunday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: There will be little change over the waters through the near term. The Bermuda High over the western Atlantic will keep winds from the S to SW at 10 to 15 kts, with seas of around 2 ft today and tonight. Winds will be mainly southerly this afternoon near shore and gusty as the afternoon sea-breeze circulation sets up. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Sunday...High pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to keep winds from the S to SW at 10 to 15 kts through the period, with seas of around 2 ft. Expect gusts up around 20 kts each afternoon.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...RGZ MARINE...REK/RGZ

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