Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 250206 CCA AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected National Weather Service Wilmington NC 636 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm air will prevail across the Carolinas through Saturday. A cold front approaching from the west will move offshore late Saturday. Much cooler and drier air will build in Saturday night through Monday. Shower chances will increase mid week as a warm front moves across the area Tuesday. Much warmer temperatures will follow this warm front through Thursday before a cold front crosses offshore. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 3 PM Friday...Mild overnight conditions and the pressure pattern flattens, leading to light winds and partly to mostly clear skies. This should set the stage for patches of fog overnight. Little else in the sensible weather arena and minimums to bottom out in the middle and upper 50s for most areas and near 60 at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Friday...Another warm day Saturday with record highs in jeopardy in some locations, most favorably inland. Records in place for Saturday 2/25 include ILM-81 in 1930, FLO-78 in 1977, CRE-77 in 1949. Inland locations may see temperature drops up 40 degrees or better from Saturday`s highs to Sunday`s lows as a cold front sweeps through late Saturday. Moisture appears scant with this system and only isolated showers painted in over SE NC. Sunday sunny and cooler with highs in the afternoon reaching around 60 degrees. The coolest time of this forecast period is Monday daybreak, widespread 30s inland and lower 40s near the coast, in a light onshore breeze. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...Fast flow aloft will keep features moving quickly next week, so while temps will remain above normal, the weather is likely to be unsettled at times. Cool high pressure Monday will push offshore as a warm front lifts northward late in the day. This warm front will bring a chance for showers Monday night into Tuesday, along with temps soaring back well into the 70s Tuesday after just being slightly above climo on Monday. Warm and unstable air behind the warm front will continue at least a slight chc for showers through Wednesday as weak impulses rotate overhead, but total coverage is expected to be isolated at worst. This will change on Thursday however, as a strong cold front digs across the Carolinas with a better chance for showers, followed by much cooler temps for the end of the period. After several days in the 70s, below climo temps are possible as we head into the first wknd of March. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 00Z...Conditions currently VFR but moisture profiles support fog tonight with good saturation below 500 ft. LIFR conditions are likely after 08Z. Fog should dissipate by 13z with increasing SW flow becoming more westerly aft 20z. A potential fly in the ointment though will be the onset of more southerly flow along the coast toward 12Z. As low level winds veer late tonight, there is the potential for low stratus to move in over the fog at the coastal terminals. This could do 2 things. First, vsbys will likely be higher but cigs will remain IFR or LIFR. Second, the improvement to VFR could be delayed at coastal terminals during the morning. Attm confidence is low in this scenario. Extended Outlook...VFR. VSBY and ceilings lowered to MVFR/IFR with pcp Mon night into Tues and again with SHWRs on Wed. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Friday...Significant SE swell continues to fan ashore keeping Advisory flags flying in only moderate to light winds. As the pressure pattern goes flat, very clean, almost pure swell in the early morning with little to no wind. Swell will subside 1-2 feet into early Saturday, but Advisories will be needed tonight. No TSTMS or restrictions to visibility overnight, coupled with diminishing NE-N winds. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Friday...Waning SE swell on Saturday, and midday the advisories should be dropped for the NC waters, a little sooner for the SC waters. However, as a cold front approaches, another advisory or caution statement may be needed Saturday night, but only briefly. Sunday will be a day of diminishing N-WNW winds and improving marine conditions. No TSTMS this period but look for a few marine showers late Saturday over the NC waters. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...High pressure will move overhead and offshore Monday with light E winds veering to the S/SW by Tuesday morning and increasing to 10-15 kts on return flow. Winds will then remain from the SW through the remainder of the extended and increase slowly towards 20 kts during Wednesday as the gradient pinches ahead of a cold front. Wave heights around 2 ft Monday will climb steadily as a SE swell and southerly wind wave amplify through mid-week. Seas will build to 3-4 ft Tuesday, and then up to 3-5 ft Wednesday during the period of strongest winds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Saturday for AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...XXXI MARINE...MJC/JDW

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