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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 030542
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1242 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY
WILL FEATURE A DRAMATIC WARM UP...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
EVEN COLDER AIRMASS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A
VERY GRADUAL WARM UP...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...BASED ON RADAR AND LATEST MODELS I HAVE
DELAYED THE ONSET OF RAIN BY SEVERAL MORE HOURS...REDUCING POPS TO
LESS THAN 40 PERCENT EVEN BACK ACROSS OUR SC PEE DEE COUNTIES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST
ENTIRELY EAST OF WHITEVILLE AND MYRTLE BEACH INCLUDING WILMINGTON.
FEW CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. DISCUSSION FROM 1015 PM FOLLOWS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED WELL S OF NE SC THIS LATE
EVENING...POSITIONED FROM S OF CHS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH
NE-ENE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BUT NOT QUICKLY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...SETTLING IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE DEEPER INTERIOR OF SE
NC TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OF SC AND COASTAL NC. THE
ONSHORE COMPONENT OF ENE FLOW MAY KEEP OUR COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE
UPPER 40S INTO DAYBREAK. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY. RADAR WAS PICKING UP VIRGA MOVING INTO
CENTRAL SC BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL WAS STILL WELL WEST INTO GEORGIA.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE...SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND T/TD/RH VALUES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL DURING TUESDAY
HOWEVER AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS MINS WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR IN THE
EVENING MOST LOCATIONS THEN TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. ANY SEA FOG THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE COOLER SHELF WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY SHOULD EASILY DISSIPATE DURING
THE MORNING AS THE WIND INCREASES. THE SOUTHERLY FETCH OVERRIDING
THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL ALSO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG
THE COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL BRUNSWICK AND SOUTHERN NEW
HANOVER COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DURING
WEDNESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TO FOLLOW AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE PICTURE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WHEN IT COMES TO
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOKS LIKE THE LATEST GFS HOLDS MID TO
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THURS WITH LOW
PRESSURE WAVE RIDING UP ALONG THE SFC FRONT WHICH IS STILL BACK OVER
EASTERN CAROLINAS THURS MORNING. THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY
WILL NOW START OUT VERY WARM IN SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY THROUGH BY NOON. THERE WILL BE MORE OF AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN WINDS
FROM SW TO N ONCE FRONT DROPS SOUTH. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF COASTAL CAROLINAS AND LOOKS LIKE MOST OF
PCP WILL COME ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THURS...MORE IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION ALONG FRONT AND STRATIFORM RAIN AS WARM SW WINDS ALOFT
RIDE OVER THE SHALLOW COOL AIR BEHIND SFC FRONT THURS AFTN. WARMEST
TEMPS ON THURS WILL BE EARLY MORNING BEFORE FROPA.

BY THURS NIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST LEAVING A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH MORE OF ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AND COLD NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT
THE AFC. THIS SHOULD HELP BRING PLENTY OF DRY AND COLD AIR INTO THE
AREA THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRI. PCP WATER VALUES UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES
THURS MORNING WILL DROP TO LESS THAN QUARTER OF AN INCH THURS NIGHT
THROUGH FRI. EXPECT DRY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES OFF SHORE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
WEAKENS. A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST AND THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR OTHER SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP SOME LOW END POPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS GREATER CHC OF PCP ON SAT WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS ANY PCP OFF
UNTIL SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TEMPS WILL TAKE A DIVE ONCE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ON THURS WITH 850
TEMPS UP AROUND 12C THURS MORNING DROPPING DOWN NEAR 0C BY FRI
MORNING. THIS STRONG CAA AND POSSIBLY LINGERING CLOUDS AND PCP WILL
KEEP VERY COOL TEMPS FOR THURS AFTN INTO FRIDAY. AFTER MAX TEMPS
EARLY THURS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S LATE THURS AND WILL REMAIN
ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP
BELOW FREEZING MOST PLACES BOTH THURS NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. WITH MID TO UPPER TROUGH LINGERING
OVER THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH ANY SUNSHINE WILL HELP BRING THEM UP A NOTCH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL RIDE UP AND OVER A COLD FRONT
NOW STALLING DOWN ACROSS GEORGIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES DEVELOPING FIRST ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...THEN
SPREADING NORTH AND EAST INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA AFTER DAYBREAK. NE-E
WINDS AT THE SURFACE MAY GUST TO 15-18 KNOTS BEFORE DAYBREAK ALONG
THE COAST...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING SMALL
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE LBT/FLO AIRPORTS BEFORE
08Z. THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY SHOULD SEE PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN WITH
INTERMITTENT VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN BR. STRATUS SHOULD LOWER BELOW
1000 FEET TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS LATE WED. RAIN/IFR THUR. VFR DEVELOPING
FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD BE INCREASING RATHER
RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS. LATEST WAVE OBSERVATIONS SHOW 4.5 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN
SHOALS BUOY...3 FEET AT THE "HARBOR" BUOY SOUTH OF SOUTHPORT...AND
ONLY 1.5 FEET AT THE SUNSET BEACH NEARSHORE BUOY. (THE BUOY OFF
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH HAS BEEN OUT OF SERVICE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS.)
MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH. DISCUSSIONS FROM 1015 PM FOLLOWS...

ENE WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE WATERS IN WAKE OF A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD
FRONT...AND SUSPECT GUSTS TO 25 KT REMAINS QUITE POSSIBLE SO THE SCA
TO BE RETAINED INTO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD BOOST WAVE
HEIGHTS ANOTHER 1-2 FT TO REACH 3-5 FEET MOST AREAS OF THE 0-20NM
WATERS BY SUNRISE TUE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...NE TO E FETCH TUESDAY WILL VEER TO A SE TO
S WIND BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF A WARM FRONT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE SW PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE STRENGTHENING WINDS
WILL HELP TO DISSIPATE ANY SEA FOG BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS
COULD POSSIBLE INCREASE TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...LATEST MODELS HOLDING FROPA BACK AGAIN UNTIL
AROUND NOON TIME ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP S-SW WINDS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURS MORNING WITH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 6 FT. SHOULD SEE
AN FAIRLY ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO N BEHIND FRONT ON THURS.
STRONG CAA AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 4 TO 7 FT
THROUGH THURS NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD KEEP A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THURS INTO FRI. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH LATE FRI AND BECOME MORE
VARIABLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS
CLOSER OVERHEAD AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MAY SEE A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTEN AND SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA BY FRI
AFTN AND DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS OVER MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA