Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 272346 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 746 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ONE MORE HUMID DAY TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OFFSHORE MONDAY. REDEVELOPMENT OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE MID THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL BRING HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE HAS WANED AND NO LONGER A THREAT. HOWEVER...EYES TURN TOWARD AN INTENSIFYING BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND AT THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA AT THE MOMENT. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SOLIDIFY AS IT PUSHES EAST AT A GOOD CLIP. LIKELY WILL SEE BOW TYPE SEGMENTS DEVELOP ALONG PORTIONS OF THIS LINE THAT WILL PRODUCE STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL...POPS HAVE BEEN RE-ADJUSTED TO ACCOMMODATE THIS LINE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN AS IS BUT MAY LIKELY NEED READJUSTMENTS LATER AS DOWNDRAFTS FROM THIS LINE OF CONVECTION LOWERS TEMPS TO NEAR FORECAST MINS DURING THIS EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY CONCERN TO THIS IMMINENT LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION CROSSING THE FA. PREVIOUS......................................................... AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...SCATTERED TSTMS ONGOING AND TRACKING ENE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH REMNANT MCV CIRCULATIONS AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE INTERACTIONS. THE SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS MAY HELP SPIKE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY AND A SPIN-UP MESO OR FUNNEL CLOUD ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MOST RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATIONS SHOW A SWATH OF PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES STREWN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. DEEPER CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS UPPER SUPPORT STRENGTHENS AND THIS REMAINS FAVORED ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. MODELS SHOW AS UPPER WINDS PARALLEL THE FRONT...CONVECTION MAY WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS...AND AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS...LOW AND MID- LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-40 KT. THUS ANY STORMS THAT ARE MAINTAINED TONIGHT WILL HAVE A SWIFT FORWARD MOTION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITTING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARSHORE WITH A WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET (200MB) INTENSIFIES THE PUSH FOR THE FRONT BECOMES NON EXISTENT. I HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR SUNDAY AS THE INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE NAM IS SHOWING MORE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKER SIGNAL. WILL WAIT FOR MORE CERTAINTY BEFORE ADDING POPS FOR THIS PERIOD BUT I DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WONDERFUL DAY MONDAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 50S INLAND MIXING DOWN AT MAX HEATING. CERTAINLY THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE BOARD. OVERALL I TWEAKED TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY. THE HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS BELOW 90 SUNDAY AND LOWS IN THE 60S INLAND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE COASTAL AREAS WONT BREAK THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 828 AM SATURDAY...CONSENSUS AMONG THE GLOBAL MEMBERS AND ENSEMBLE PLOTS DEPICT LOW AMPLITUDE BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIGURATION WILL SUPPORT A STORM TRACK NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THAT MAY FOSTER IMPACTS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...WHILE AIDING IN SURFACE TROUGHING INLAND AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN DURING DIURNAL WARMING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGHING WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WANES. THE LOW-LEVEL WSW FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE PERIOD NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY STANDARDS. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 18Z...FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH A BIT OF A LULL EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PWATS WILL GIVE US BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT HAVE THAT MUCH CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THINK THINGS WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. THE NAM STALLS THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT THINK WE WILL GET ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY WIND BY MID TO LATE MORNING TO KEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS...CERTAINLY WEST OF THE INLAND TERMINALS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...ADVISORY FLAGS ARE FLAPPING FOR SW 15-25 KT WINDS AND GUSTS TO 30 KT TONIGHT. ANY TSTMS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 50 KT GUSTS AND MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO OBTAIN RADAR UPDATES BEFORE HEADING OUT. OUTSIDE OF TSTMS SEAS 4-7 FEET OVERNIGHT AND HIGHEST OFFSHORE...AND SE OF CAPE FEAR. SEAS COMPOSED OF SW WAVES 4-5 FEET EVERY 6 SECONDS AND ESE WAVES 1-2 FEET IN 8-9 SECONDS INTERVALS. IN AND NEAR TSTMS A HEAVY CHOP WOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP ON THE WATERS. SW-W WINDS EARLY SUNDAY EXPECTED 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL NEVER REALLY MAKE IT ACROSS THE WATERS AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR EARLY ON THE ORDER OF 15- 20 KNOTS. BY MIDDAY SUNDAY THE WINDS BEGIN A LONG DECENT DOWN TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JETTING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY AS RESIDUAL HIGHER SEAS PERSIST. BY MONDAY THE SEAS WILL BE DOWN TO 2-4 FEET. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 828 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS PREVAIL THIS PERIOD AS INLAND SURFACE TROUGHING INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE YIELDING SW 10-20 KT FLOW. TSTMS MAY IMPACT INSHORE WATERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FT BUT UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AT TIMES...AS INLAND TROUGHING SHARPENS INTO MID-WEEK. SPECTRAL DATA SUGGEST SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED OF 3 FOOT WAVES FROM THE SSW EVERY 6 SECONDS...AND 1-2 FOOT WAVES FROM THE ESE EVERY 7-9 SECONDS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC/RAN SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...DL MARINE...

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