Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271416 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1016 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MID WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS NEAR THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1010 AM MONDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ASHORE IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION THIS MORNING BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE REMAINS DRY. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING TEMPERATURE CURVE AND CLOUD COVER HAVE NOT MADE ANY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: ISOLATED MARINE SHOWERS WERE EDGING LANDWARD AS NOCTURNAL BUOYANCY WAS NEARING DIURNAL PEAK OVER THE WATERS. THIS WAS ASSISTED WITH AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE NORTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST ACROSS FL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO CAPE FEAR REGION THROUGH MORNING. SEA BREEZE SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED TSTM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS MID- LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE NNW LATER TODAY INTO PEAK HEATING. DIURNAL COOLING WILL DIMINISH MOST OF THE CONVECTION BY EVENING. UNDER PLENTY SUNSHINE TODAY MAXIMUMS IN THE MIDDLE 90S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 90 COASTAL INTERIOR...AND UPPER 80S CLOSE TO THE COAST IS EXPECTED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD A WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR THE SURFACE PATTERN OUTSIDE OUTSIDE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION BY THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. HOWEVER IT IS SUMMER AND WILL HOLD ON TO THE MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY WITH READINGS VERY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND STRONG RIDGING OUT WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL TROUGHING TO DEVELOP AND ACTUALLY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THURSDAY TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH THIS A BROAD AREA OF UNSETTLED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE. THESE ELEMENTS WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE POPS IN BASICALLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY EARLY THEN DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING NW ONSHORE NEAR KILM. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NE-ENE WINDS...EXCEPT E-ESE WINDS 6-15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SCT CU/SC ATTM AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WITH LESS CLOUDINESS AT KFLO. NEAR SHOWERS AT KILM OCCASIONALLY CIGS DROP TO AROUND 2.5K. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING SE TOWARDS KLBT. WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST COASTAL SHOWERS WILL DECREASE WITH SHOWERS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KFLO/KLBT WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE LIGHTEST. WILL INDICATE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ATTM. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1010 AM MONDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WITH 3 FT SEAS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FLORIDA WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE LOCAL 0-20 NM WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED TSTM IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SEAS MAINLY 3 FT COMPOSED OF 2 FT ESE WAVES EVERY 11 SECONDS MIXED WITH E WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 5-6 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS BASICALLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SPEEDS DO GET A BRIEF UPTICK EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...THE SEA BREEZE WILL DICTATE THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS TO AN EXTENT. SEAS REFLECT THE LOW WIND FORECAST WITH 1-3 FEET AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO 1- 2 FEET. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS NEARSHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST A BETTER DEFINED SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATER FRIDAY WITH A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS REMAIN MODEST AT BEST WITH 1-3 FEET.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MRR MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK

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