Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 200157 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 957 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move in from the north through Monday and wind up south of the area by Tuesday. A cold front will then move south across the area Wednesday morning. A large high will follow this boundary moving east and winding up off the coast over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 900 PM...Winds have decoupled quicker than anticipated, basically once the sfc based inversion developed. All clear skies and the calm winds spell for an excellent night of radiational cooling. Sfc dewpoint depression has lowered quickly after winds decoupled and now are generally at or just under 10 degrees. Latest guidance still shows min temps in the mid 30s with some outlying low 30s possible between Back Island across central Bladen and Robeson counties to Bennettsville. The Frost Advisory areal coverage remains unchanged. However, will issue a SPS for localities not covered within the Frost Advisory area but has the potential to produce patchy frost. Previous................................................... As of 300 PM Sunday...High pressure will continue to build in this afternoon and overnight. Mid level low with an associated surface trough continues to advect and develop broken to overcast skies across mostly North Carolina this afternoon. As this feature moves away and we lose surface heating, skies should clear. Guidance remains consistent with overnight lows in the middle 30s area wide with the lower ranges inland of course. With anticipated light winds very late and these temperatures will hoist a frost advisory for mainly northern counties. Confidence is not that high citing temperatures, moisture and winds but the embattled agriculture community can do without any surprises.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Warm and moist advection will be underway Monday night in a WNW mid level flow and SW surface flow. The advection will be confined to the low levels so clouds will increase but the lack of deep layer moisture precluding any rain chances. Despite the continued increase in cloudiness Tuesday the warm advection will bolster temperatures into the mid and upper 70s. Some rain chances will be cropping up later in the day as a cold front approaches but with a continued dry downsloping zonal mid level flow they may be overplayed in guidance. The better rain chances will come Tuesday night with the arrival of a healthy cold front though due to the high vertical tilt of the front most of the rain may fall after the end of the period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Sunday...A surface cold front should be traversing the area Wednesday morning, pushing all the way down to Charleston by lunchtime. Shallow cold air surging south behind the front coupled with a moist westerly flow over the top of the frontal surface means Wednesday could remain cloudy with patches of light rain or sprinkles. By Wednesday evening the mid level flow should veer more northerly, dragging in enough dry air to dissipate the post-frontal clouds. Unfortunately this means radiational cooling within the chilly airmass could create headaches with frost or even a mild freeze by Thursday morning. Model ensembles still show enough spread in forecast low-level temperature/moisture for Wednesday night/Thursday morning that I don`t have high confidence, but it definitely bears watching. Surface high pressure moving across the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday will move off the East Coast late Thursday night. Veering low-level winds will modify our airmass Friday and Saturday with rising temperatures and dewpoints. Precip chances may increase Saturday as the next synoptic frontal systems approaches from the west. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 00Z...VFR conditions expected through the majority of the valid TAF 24 hr issuance period. The exception is around sunrise Monday when MVFR conditions may occur due to reduced horizontal vsby from BR. Potential for a decent sfc based inversion developing this evening and persisting all night. Sfc dewpoint depressions rather large to start early this evening will lower as a decent rad cooling night shapes up across the FA. Have indicated the threat for calm winds and reduced horizontal vsby from fog leading up to sunrise. The fog will dissipate quickly by 9 am as the sfc high overhead slides off the southeast U.S. coast by sunset Mon. Winds generally less than 4 kt tonight and 5 to 10 kt during daylight Mon. Directions will back from northerly tonight to SW to W by Mon aftn and evening. Extended outlook...VFR expected through the period except for possible MVFR/IFR conditions from low ceilings and pcpn ahead of the next cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 900 PM Sunday...Both winds and sea conditions will continue to improve thru the night and into Monday. This a result of the center of sfc high pressure dropping to the central Carolinas by daybreak Mon, and further dropping southward across the local waters on Monday. The pinched gradient is now well east of the area waters with local winds exhibiting a diminishing trend. Significant seas will also be in a subsiding trend with 3 to 5 ft currently dropping to 2 to 4 ft overnight. With the end 4 footers mainly off Cape Fear and Romain respectively by daybreak Mon. Previous................................................... As of 300 PM Sunday...Winds and seas remain elevated this afternoon with north to northwest winds of 20-25 knots and seas of 5-7 feet across the outer waters. Winds and seas should diminish rapidly later this evening but the small craft advisory may need to be extended a few hours. Still have until 6 PM so will let the evening shift make the final call. Perhaps a strongly worded SCEC would suffice. SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday... Monday night will place the area between high pressure over FL/Bahamas and a cold front approaching from the north. Southwesterly flow will become a bit gusty as the approach of the boundary tightens the gradient slightly. The front will continue to approach on Tuesday veering the flow in direction some but not so much increasing the gradient strength, the stronger gradient being relegated to the prefrontal flow regime to our south. The front itself will have a weak pressure troughiness that will actually ease the gradient some. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Sunday...A wave of low pressure moving off the North Carolina coast early Wednesday morning will kick a cold front southward. Latest model projections show the boundary passing by Cape Fear around sunrise and blowing clear through Charleston by noon. Breezy northeast winds behind the front will probably lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions Wednesday through Thursday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for SCZ017-023-024. NC...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ087-096-099- 105-107-109. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH/SHK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...TRA AVIATION...DCH MARINE...

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