Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271901 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 153 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure building in will move offshore on Monday. A warm front will cross the area early Tuesday followed by warm temperatures, breezy south winds, and scattered showers through mid-week. A cold front passage will bring clearing skies late Thursday into the upcoming weekend, with seasonably cool temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1215 PM Sunday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: Temperatures rapidly rising this morning through the 40s and with plenty of sun and weakening CAA expect we will be well in the 50s shortly. Forecast in good shape with no changes needed. Previous discussion follows: A crisp start early this morning will undergo 25-30 degree temperature rises today as continental high pressure moves into the area, offering near cloudless skies and low humidity levels. The air-mass remains resident into Monday so another chilly overnight period tonight can be counted on. High clouds from an upstream wave will stretch into the region late tonight, which may impede ideal longwave heat escape into the pre-dawn hours. Minimums daybreak Monday 33-37 inland, around 40 by the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...Primary headliner this period `increasing rain chances` into Tuesday as short-wave energy ahead of a cold front picks up a moisture tap. Monday expect mainly clouds as the dry continental air mass holds on, but erodes into late Monday. A 1/4 inch or less of rainfall expected Tuesday. The strong warm air advection will bring soaring temperatures well above normal Tuesday into the upper 70s mixed with the showers, and balmy, gusty wind of 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 AM Sunday...Wednesday will be the warmest day of this period with widespread 70s for highs, possibly a few 80 degree marks depending on the extent of the cloudiness and possible pcpn. Wed starts out with an amplified pattern aloft with ridging and its axis having moved off the East Coast of the U.S. while a cutoff low over the north central U.S.takes shape. The tapping of the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic will provide the necessary moisture for clouds and pcpn. The upper cutoff low is progged by models to push east to and across the Great Lakes by midday Thu. A decent vort or midlevel s/w trof will rotate around the cutoff low will bottom out around Louisiana early Wed then lift NE to the Mid-atlantic and NE states by late Thu morning. The direct dynamics from this vort stays west and north of the ILM CWA, however, 300mb jetstream dynamics indicate the SE U.S. and the mid-Atlantic area will be on the RR Quadrant of this upper jet, meaning decent UVVS will occur. And this so happens to As of 3 AM Sunday...Primary headliner this period `increasing rain chances` into Tuesday as short-wave energy ahead of a cold front picks up a moisture tap. Monday expect mainly clouds as the dry continental air mass holds on, but erodes into late Monday. A 1/4 inch or less of rainfall expected Tuesday. The strong warm air advection will bring soaring temperatures well above normal Tuesday into the upper 70s mixed with the showers, and balmy, gusty wind of 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon Tuesday. take place Wed night thru early Thu just prior to the sfc cold frontal passage. Thus will have frontal dynamics, jetstream dynamics and a progged SSW to SW 40 to 50 kt low level jet at less than 1k feet via GFS Bufr soundings. All of this points to a decent shot of pcpn Wed aftn thru Thu morning. PCPN type will primarily be showers with isolated thunderstorms. The convection will depend on the availability of instability. In other words, the convection threat will come from high shear and low Cape scenario. Have continued to illustrate isolated convection during that time frame until the CFP early Thu. The isolated severe threat still looks too low to mention in the forecasts at this time. After the CFP, look for slowly improving conditions later Thu thru Fri. The CAA surge and clearing skies will lag well behind the cold front, likely occurring Thu night and Fri. Thus, Thu max temps could again reach 70+ degrees with partly to variably cloudy skies. For Fri and Sat, a return back to normal climo temperatures with around 60 for highs and upper 30s to around 40 for lows under mainly clear skies. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 18Z...VFR/no sig weather expected this 24 hr TAF period. Winds will begin to veer around through Monday, but with the center of high pressure nearly overhead today, winds will be very light and more variable. Light northerly flow will become E-SE by morning and then southerly by Mon aftn as the center of high pressure shifts farther off shore. As for sky cover, there will be FEW to SCT cirrus overnight but incresing by morning along with an increase in low level moisture due to an onshore flow developing. Therefore have included some SCT to BKN Cirrus and SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings on Monday. Extended outlook...Tempo MVFR from scattered showers Tue. Chance IFR early Wed. Tempo MVFR/IFR from numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms late Wed thru Thu morning. Otherwise VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1215 PM Sunday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: Latest obs show seas of 3 to 4 ft and light northerly winds. Winds easing off earlier than anticipated so may be revising sea heights for the near term forecast downwards with the next update. Previous discussion follows: ENE waves 3-5 feet every 6-7 seconds highest offshore and gusty N winds early this morning will prevail at least through the morning. The gusts will ease this afternoon as the surface high migrates a bit closer to the coast. Sea heights accordingly will ease gradually by a foot or 1.5 ft later today, thus an improving marine trend on tap through the near term period. Winds to lighten and veer onshore into early Monday as the high center nears the Outer Banks. No TSTMS or VSBY restrictions expected this period. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...Chief concern this period is worsening marine conditions into Tuesday as southerly winds increase ahead of an upstream low pressure system. Small Craft Advisory Conditions appear likely sometime on Tuesday as seas build to 6-8 feet every 8 seconds by Tuesday evening offshore. Marine showers can be expected Tuesday and gusty S winds of at least 25 KT. A few TSTMS are possible offshore tuesday. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM Sunday...Looking at SCA conditions likely for both days. Wed will be the 2nd day of strong SSE to SSW flow at 15 to 25 kt. Depending on local SSTS, winds of 30-40 kt just off the deck, could mix down to the ocean sfc as Gale force gusts Wed aftn thru early Thu morning. The chance for convection will occur ahead of the cold front from Wed aftn thru Thu morning, the latter time is when the cold front pushes offshore. The sfc pg loosens during Thu allowing wind speeds to diminish-some. Significant seas will become fully risen under the strong SSE- SSW flow during Wed, with 5 to 8 ft likely, up to 9 ft outer waters especially off Cape Fear where the onshore flow will help push in higher SSTs across a portion of the ILM coastal waters enabling those stronger wind gusts to possibly mixing down to the sfc. Periods will run from 7 to 8 seconds, ie. a pseudo or fresh swell. With an offshore wind direction during Thu, seas will only slowly subside to 3 to 6 ft by the end of the day, Thu. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...MRR MARINE...DCH/MJC/REK

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