Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 180025 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 825 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will bring showers on Saturday in addition to below normal temperatures over the weekend. Seasonable weather returns Monday and Tuesday. A cold front Wednesday will bring another round of rain followed by a cooldown. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday... Surface high pressure will continue to drift offshore this afternoon and overnight. By Saturday morning a cold front will be near Western North Carolina. This front will move south and east through the day and with good low level convergence and an assist from an upper level jet, rainfall across the area is a good bet. I have increased pops to categorical most areas. Temperatures tonight should be in the middle to upper 40s with lows reached a little early than usual with cloud cover increasing. Nice rebound for Saturday with widespread 60s even in overcast and rainy condiitons. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday... Moderately strong cold air advection paired with a healthy vort max crossing the region and the stage should be set for a well mixed and breezy Saturday night. The mixing will also help to keep temperatures elevated above what they otherwise would be in this airmass during a more `normal` decoupled night, most areas remaining in the low 40s. The PVA stops Sunday and the cold advection weakens to neutral by afternoon. We should eke out a high just above 60 as continued vigorous mixing fosters steep low level lapse rates. The gradient finally weakens Sunday night allowing for a bit more radiative cooling. Lows will be in the mid to upper 30s, sparing the region from another freeze. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 2 AM Friday...After a seasonably cool and dry Monday, a cold front drops SE across the eastern Carolinas on Tuesday evening, bringing a round of scattered showers. Pre-frontal flow will bring temperatures back up above normal on Tuesday with highs in the 70s. The front will bring a cooling trend for Wednesday and Thursday, although given the mild nature of the airmass do not expect any freeze or frost issues. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...VFR conditions will continue thru this evening. MVFR conditions with pockets of IFR will overspread the area from NW to SE after midnight tonight and continue thru mid afternoon Saturday before finally exiting east of the coastal terminals after sunset Sat. Typical warm frontal type cloudiness to progress across the area tonight with CS at 20k ft initially, dropping to AS and AC at 6k to 10k ft during the evening with scattered SC at 4k to 6k ft during the pre-dawn Sat hours. Pockets of IFR ceilings will affect the inland terminals by and after Sat daybreak thru mid-afternoon followed by improving conditions. For the coastal terminals, IFR conditions from ceilings may occur from midday thru sunset Saturday. Pcpn will be in the form of light rain with vsby dropping to 3SM at it`s peak occurrence. Did not include thunder due to limited instability. All terminals will see winds from the S to SW tonight at 5 to 10 kt. SW to WSW winds will increase to 10 to 15 kt with gusts around 20 kt during daylight Saturday. The LBT terminal may not see the frequent gusts like the other terminals due to a more stable atm. Extended outlook...Expect VFR thru the period with the exceptions for possible MVFR in isolated showers Saturday night ahead of a cold frontal passage. And possible MVFR and isolated IFR conditions from showers ahead of the next cold frontal passage late Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday... Very light winds currently across the coastal waters with the sea breeze actually providing the strongest values, just over ten knots from the southeast. Light winds will slowly increase through this evening and into Saturday as a southwest flow and increased gradient from the west develops. Wind speeds increase briefly to just over twenty knots by midday Saturday. Seas will follow suite with minimal 1-2 feet this afternoon increasing to 3-5 feet Saturday afternoon. There is an outside chance of a small craft advisory tomorrow with a marginal event. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday... A pinched post-frontal gradient and a healthy disturbance aloft will make for a breezy Saturday night. Conditions could be close to advisory level, though current wind-based SWAN runs keep the 6ft seas outside of the 20nm forecast zones in the offshore flow. Wind speeds seem the more likely to satisfy a short- fused advisory but there is time to refine this thinking if necessary. The remainder of the period will feature winds that remain out of the north and diminishing in speed as the gradient eases. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 2 AM Friday...Winds will turn back to the SW on Monday in advance of the next cold front. This front will move across the waters on Tuesday, bringing showers to the waters but only modest winds and seas not exceeding 4 ft. Do not expect any advisories or headlines during the long term. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...REK AVIATION...DCH

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