Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KILM 180025
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
825 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017
A cold front will bring showers on Saturday in addition to below
normal temperatures over the weekend. Seasonable weather returns
Monday and Tuesday. A cold front Wednesday will bring another
round of rain followed by a cooldown.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday... Surface high pressure will continue to
drift offshore this afternoon and overnight. By Saturday morning
a cold front will be near Western North Carolina. This front
will move south and east through the day and with good low level
convergence and an assist from an upper level jet, rainfall
across the area is a good bet. I have increased pops to
categorical most areas. Temperatures tonight should be in the
middle to upper 40s with lows reached a little early than usual
with cloud cover increasing. Nice rebound for Saturday with
widespread 60s even in overcast and rainy condiitons.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday... Moderately strong cold air advection paired
with a healthy vort max crossing the region and the stage should be
set for a well mixed and breezy Saturday night. The mixing will also
help to keep temperatures elevated above what they otherwise would
be in this airmass during a more `normal` decoupled night, most
areas remaining in the low 40s. The PVA stops Sunday and the cold
advection weakens to neutral by afternoon. We should eke out a high
just above 60 as continued vigorous mixing fosters steep low level
lapse rates. The gradient finally weakens Sunday night allowing for
a bit more radiative cooling. Lows will be in the mid to upper 30s,
sparing the region from another freeze.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2 AM Friday...After a seasonably cool and dry Monday, a
cold front drops SE across the eastern Carolinas on Tuesday
evening, bringing a round of scattered showers. Pre-frontal flow
will bring temperatures back up above normal on Tuesday with
highs in the 70s. The front will bring a cooling trend for
Wednesday and Thursday, although given the mild nature of the
airmass do not expect any freeze or frost issues.
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 00Z...VFR conditions will continue thru this evening.
MVFR conditions with pockets of IFR will overspread the area
from NW to SE after midnight tonight and continue thru mid
afternoon Saturday before finally exiting east of the coastal
terminals after sunset Sat.
Typical warm frontal type cloudiness to progress across the area
tonight with CS at 20k ft initially, dropping to AS and AC at
6k to 10k ft during the evening with scattered SC at 4k to 6k
ft during the pre-dawn Sat hours. Pockets of IFR ceilings will
affect the inland terminals by and after Sat daybreak thru
mid-afternoon followed by improving conditions. For the coastal
terminals, IFR conditions from ceilings may occur from midday
thru sunset Saturday. Pcpn will be in the form of light rain
with vsby dropping to 3SM at it`s peak occurrence. Did not
include thunder due to limited instability.
All terminals will see winds from the S to SW tonight at 5 to
10 kt. SW to WSW winds will increase to 10 to 15 kt with gusts
around 20 kt during daylight Saturday. The LBT terminal may not
see the frequent gusts like the other terminals due to a more
Extended outlook...Expect VFR thru the period with the
exceptions for possible MVFR in isolated showers Saturday night
ahead of a cold frontal passage. And possible MVFR and isolated
IFR conditions from showers ahead of the next cold frontal
passage late Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday... Very light winds currently across the coastal
waters with the sea breeze actually providing the strongest values,
just over ten knots from the southeast. Light winds will slowly
increase through this evening and into Saturday as a southwest flow
and increased gradient from the west develops. Wind speeds increase
briefly to just over twenty knots by midday Saturday. Seas will
follow suite with minimal 1-2 feet this afternoon increasing to 3-5
feet Saturday afternoon. There is an outside chance of a small craft
advisory tomorrow with a marginal event.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday... A pinched post-frontal gradient and a healthy
disturbance aloft will make for a breezy Saturday night. Conditions
could be close to advisory level, though current wind-based SWAN
runs keep the 6ft seas outside of the 20nm forecast zones in the
offshore flow. Wind speeds seem the more likely to satisfy a short-
fused advisory but there is time to refine this thinking if
necessary. The remainder of the period will feature winds that
remain out of the north and diminishing in speed as the gradient
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 2 AM Friday...Winds will turn back to the SW on Monday in
advance of the next cold front. This front will move across the
waters on Tuesday, bringing showers to the waters but only
modest winds and seas not exceeding 4 ft. Do not expect any
advisories or headlines during the long term.