Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 251340
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
940 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY WARMTH. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND MAINTAINING WARM
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM MONDAY...STELLAR MEMORIAL DAY UNFOLDING IF YOU ARE A
FAN OF WARM SUNSHINE...ONSHORE BREEZES AND SPARKLING ALBEIT PACKED
BEACHES. INTERIOR SURFACE HEATING WILL DRIVE A MODERATE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION...SPREADING SIGHT COOLING INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR
AND RESULTING A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL FROM INLAND TO
THE COASTAL ZONES. UPDATE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTN
SHOWER PRIMARILY OVER WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY WHERE IT APPEARS THE
ONLY PROSPECTS EXIST BETWEEN 19Z-21Z/3PM-5PM. OTHERWISE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON TAP WITH SUN-COOKED CUMULUS ON TAP. THE COASTAL
ZONES BASES ON SATELLITE TRENDS WILL LIKE TO REMAIN SUNNY MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS INCREASING HUMIDITY INTO MID-
WEEK. ALTHOUGH NOT EXACTLY A TEXTBOOK BERMUDA-HIGH
PRESSURE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINES WITH AN
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVING EAST...TO PRODUCE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND SHOWER CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE TUESDAY WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY THANKS TO A
SUBSIDENT INVERSION AND VERY DRY MID-LEVELS...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RAMP UP WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY WHERE PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 1.9 INCHES...BUT
EVEN THERE ONLY SCHC POP IS WARRANTED...WITH SOME LOW-END CHC
DARLINGTON/MARLBORO/ROBESON A WEAK 8 TO 9 SECOND E TO ESE
SWELL WILL CONTINUE. COUNTIES. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNALLY FORCED.

TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO WITH WIDESPREAD MID-TO-UPR
80S...LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 70 AT
THE COAST...MID 60S WEST OF I-95.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...CONTINUATION OF THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR
THE EXTENDED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPINS OFFSHORE AND RIDGES BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY PEAK THURSDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...BUT
ONCE AGAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIP WILL BE THE INLAND HALF OF
THE CWA. FRI-SUN...RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH
NOT QUITE TO THE EXTENT AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BLOSSOMS FURTHER AND DRIVES 850MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 16C. SO...WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO THE
WKND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WITH WIDESPREAD 90S LOOKING MORE
LIKELY FOR NEXT WKND...ALTHOUGH BEACH COMMUNITIES WILL BE A SOLID 10
DEGREES COOLER. WITH THE SUBSIDENT .RIDGE IN PLACE PREVENTING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT CONTINUE A WEAK 8 TO 9 SECOND E TO ESE SWELL
WILL CONTINUE. WITH ADVECTION OF HIGH DEWPOINT AIR...IT MAY BEGIN
TO FEEL PRETTY UNCOMFORTABLE AROUND THE AREA NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AN EARLY SUMMER BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP THINGS IN CHECK
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH A THIN
BROKEN CIRRUS CEILING ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION WITH FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
FOG EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS TUE THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM MONDAY...SE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
A BERMUDA RIDGE HOLDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO
15 KT WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL ALSO
REMAIN STEADY...3 TO 4 FT. DOMINANT WAVE INTERVALS OF 6 SECONDS
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE CREATES RATHER CONSISTENT CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...WINDS WILL BE SE OR SOUTH WITH ONLY MINOR
FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS NOT DEVIATING MUCH FROM 10-15 KT. THESE
WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2-4 FT...WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION
FROM A 7-8 SEC SE GROUND SWELL INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS PRODUCES A WEAK GRADIENT...AND SE WINDS BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY ON FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF ONLY AROUND 10 KT. THESE
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CAP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 2-4
FT...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND WEAK WIND WAVE COMPRISING THE
SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL



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