Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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750
FXUS62 KILM 020710
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
310 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIP ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRYING AND WARMING WILL FOLLOW
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
TODAY AS PLENTIFUL COLUMN MOISTURE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT LEE-SIDE TROUGH
TEAM UP. ANY STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH UPSTREAM OF
HERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF TRAVELING OUR WAY GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW
IN PLACE. TRAINING OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AS
WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY...WHILE THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
LATER TODAY. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE WARM
SECTOR SHOULD BRING MAXIMUMS INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 80S TODAY
INLAND...UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. STRONGER SUPPORT ALOFT
TONIGHT WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED TO LIKELY POP VALUES INTO TUESDAY
WITH MILD MINIMUMS OF 65-70 AND A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY MAY VERY WELL END UP AS THE WETTEST
DAY IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHIFTS THE PRIMARY HEAVY RAIN AXIS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
RAIN AMOUNT TOTALS TODAY AND TUESDAY 1-2 INCHES BUT CERTAINLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LOCALLY WILL BE SEEN DUE TO THE HIT AMD MISS NATURE
OF ROBUST CONVECTION...OR CELL TRAINING. MID-LEVEL DRYING TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON CONVECTION AND A DECREASE IN COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY...TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN WAKE OF A
FRONT. THE W WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND LACK OF COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAXIMUM TEMPS TUE AND WED TO BE
SIMILAR...OR A JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER WED. WITH GOOD LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE TUE AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDING A FOCUS...A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST TUE. COOLING WILL BRING
LOWS LATE WED INTO THU IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT AND
THE RIDGE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN SOMEWHAT. BY THE
WEEKEND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE TO THE EAST WEAKENS. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE LATEST
MEX NUMBERS SOAR INTO THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS...AS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. I DID INCREASE
THE VALUES FOR THE WEEKEND A BIT TO REPRESENT THE LATEST NUMBERS
STILL REMAINING SOMEWHAT BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. INITIALLY VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS AND OVC300. POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MARGINAL MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN ANY CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 18KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SUSTAINING A
BUMPY 3-4 FT ACROSS THE NE SC AND SE NC 0-20 NM WATERS. TSTMS MAY
POSE A THREAT LATER TODAY AS STEERING WINDS GUIDE STORMS TOWARD
THE COAST. STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS...SEA
HEIGHTS AND WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS. THE
BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SSW WAVES OF 3 FT
EVERY 5-6 SECONDS...CO-MINGLED ON TOP OF A 1-2 FOOT E-SE WAVE
EVERY 8-9 SECONDS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 40-50 KT GUSTS AND MARINERS OUGHT TO CONSIDER A RADAR
UPDATE BEFORE VENTURING TO SEA.



SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...DESPITE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AND A FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY...NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED. AN EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE HOWEVER MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF TUE OR TUE
NIGHT FOR 15-20 KT SW WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
TSTMS WILL POSE A THREAT TO MARINERS AND RADAR UPDATES ARE
SUGGESTED...AS SOME STORMS MAY REQUIRE WARNINGS. THE BRUNT OF WAVE
ENERGY WILL BE TIED TO LOCAL WINDS AND THEREFORE SOMEWHAT STEEP
WAVE-FACES RUNNING IN 5-6 SECOND INTERVALS. CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO PLAGUE THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. WED THE
FLOW WILL EASE AND BECOME W BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. TSTMS WILL
BE LESS IN NUMBER WED COMPARED TO TUE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...EXPECT SOME STRONGER WINDS FOR THURSDAY AS
A COLD FRONT WILL JUST BE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15-20 KNOTS BY DAYS END. BY FRIDAY
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DIMINISH AS WILL THE WIND SPEEDS TO
10-15 KNOTS. GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SMALL CRAFT SEAS FOR THURSDAY AS IT WOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST. FOR
NOW MAINTAINED A 2-4 FOOT RANGE WITH JUST A FEW HOURS OF FIVE
FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/SGL



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