Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 291040
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
640 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
STAY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING
FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
SOME CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR COVERAGE OF INITIAL SHOWERS SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE AND COASTAL NORTHEAST SC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TODAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES INITIALLY...THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL MEASURE RAINFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MOIST
PLUME NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE MAIN SHORT-WAVE AXIS WILL
PUSH TO THE COAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING POPS
AND DIMINISHING QPF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE LATER TODAY...HOWEVER
THE RRQ OF H3 JET IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION YIELDING DECENT UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITIES IN THE AREA PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY.
OVERALL...EXPECT QPF WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH OR HIGHER
GENERALLY SOUTH OF AN ILM TO UDG LINE...WITH THE BULK OCCURRING OFF
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...AMPLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD
ESPECIALLY WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...AND
GRADUAL DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. A
BLEND OF MAV/MET NUMBERS LOOKS REASONABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUES WITH A DEEP N-NW
FLOW OF DRY AIR AS RIDGE BUILDS UP THE EAST COAST. PCP WATER
VALUES DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES TUES MORNING DOWN
TO LESS THAN AN INCH BY TUES NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA BY TUES AFTN AND RUNNING
THROUGH WED.

MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND SUNNY SKIES WILL YIELD TEMPS UP AROUND
80 ON TUES. DRIER AIR IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS DOWN CLOSE TO
60 AND BELOW OVER INLAND AREAS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DROP
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS ON WED WILL WARM INTO THE
80S WITH THE AID OF A MORE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH
BRIGHT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AT THE SURFACE. PLENTY
OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY DAY. SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE SOME AFTN CU BUT OVERALL EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 80.

BY FRI...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW. AS THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE SLIPS EAST A TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS TROUGH
DIGS DOWN IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
LATE FRI INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE FLOW REMAINS MORE WESTERLY AND
THEREFORE DOES NOT PULL UP MUCH IN THE WAY OF GULF MOISTURE SO
EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED. THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF AREA AND
THEREFORE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT A WARM AND SUNNY START TO FRIDAY AND
EXPECT PCP TO REMAIN ON THE LOW END WITH BEST CHC FRI EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
SATURDAY THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AS IT
SHIFTS EAST. MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A VERY BROAD TROUGH WITH
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW BY SUNDAY. A DEEP COOLER NW FLOW SHOULD
PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WHILE IN A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS
DOWN IN THE 50S. OVERALL EXPECT MORE FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TRICKY FORECAST TODAY.  PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD...HOWEVER TIME HEIGHT AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOT OF
THE PRECIP IS COMING OUT OF A MID CLOUD CEILING...KEEPING PRECIP
QUITE LIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO LOWER...BUT SHOULD NONETHELESS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH MVFR EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AT MOST
LOCATIONS. THE NAM HAS BEEN TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS
FOR DAYS NOW...IF NOT WEEKS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM`S IFR CEILINGS
FOR NOW...BUT MAY INTRODUCE THEM THIS EVENING. CONTINUED NORTHEAST
FLOW TODAY...FAIRLY LIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...SHUTTING OFF THE PRECIP.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE WITH INITIAL
WINDS ANYWHERE BETWEEN THE NW AND NE WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
AT THE MOMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE PULLS
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. N TO NE WIND...GENERALLY AROUND 10
KTS... WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE WIND WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE DAY...THEN
15 TO 20 KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
EVOLVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT
INITIALLY THEN BUILDING TO 4 FT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK END OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH TUES...WILL INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. SEAS WILL INCREASE
UP TO 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH TUES BUT WILL COME BACK DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT
BY WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THURS AND
SHIFT OFF SHORE BY FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THURS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY FRI AND INCREASING UP
TO 15 KTS BY FRI AFTN AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 3
FT ON THURS WILL INCREASE BACK UP TO 3 TO 4 FT WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WITH THE STRONGER WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43


















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