Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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698
FXUS62 KILM 240400
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1100 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm air will prevail across the Carolinas through Saturday.
A cold front approaching from the west will move offshore late
Saturday. Cooler and drier air will build in Saturday night
through Monday. Shower chances will increase mid week as a cold
front approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 1045 PM Thursday...Have indicated the low chance, below
20 percent, POPs for mainly along the immediate coast from Cape
Fear northward. Latest sat imagery shows cu/sc moving onshore.
Latest KLTX 88D indicates just enough DB`s shown in conjunction
with the onshore movement of the low level clouds for pcpn to
occur. Will continue this low pcpn threat thru the night. QPF, a
couple one hundredths of an inch possible. Overnight lows will
remain unchanged however, hourly sfc temps and dewpoints will
need updating based on latest trends along with hourly RH and
apparent temps. However you look at it, another mild night in
store for the bi-state region. The back edge of the mid and
upper level clouds extended from Elizabethtown to Georgetown.
Not much movement in any direction this evening, other than the
clouds themselves. But do expect the back edge to progress to
the immediate coast by sunrise Fri and further eastward during
daytime Fri.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...Morning clouds will break Friday and in
tandem with an upper ridge axis over the region, near record
temperatures may be reached or exceeded. Record highs for
tomorrow include CRE-78 in 1996, ILM-81 in 1982, FLO-82 in 1962,
LBT-77 in 2016. Afternoon heat-induced cumulus expected Friday.
Another warm one Saturday in a pre-frontal sector and breezier.
Maximums may be similar to Friday, to a few degrees cooler near
the coast and well inland. The moisture profiles are quite dry
Saturday and an isolated shower may even be too hopeful with
FROPA in the mid afternoon to very early evening west to east.
Mammoth temperature differences from Saturday afternoon to
Sunday morning, drops of 35-40 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...Cold advection weakens on Sun but
the colder air will be in place and temperatures will drop near
to slightly below climo, despite plenty of sun and deep
westerly flow aloft. Surface high moves off the coast later in
the day with return flow developing then increasing for Mon as
5h trough to the west starts to amplify. Southern stream
shortwave will emerge from the southwest this weekend but its
evolution remains the subject of much debate between the medium
range guidance. It appears likely that the wave will be
deamplifying as it heads east, lifting northwest of the area Mon
night. The associated surface low will drag a boundary into the
region but lack of strong mid level trough/push leaves the
surface boundary hanging. Latest GFS has it stalled in the area
with a period of unsettled weather Mon night through Wed night
(albeit with temps above to well above climo). The ECMWF depicts
a stronger 5h ridge over the southern Gulf of Mexico which
expands north Wed leading to a slightly warmer and drier
forecast compared to the GFS.

Wed night into Thu medium range guidance converges on a cold front
pushing across the area, pushed east by longwave 5h trough. Front
would be accompanied by showers and likely some thunder with cold
advection following the front dropping temps back near climo as the
period ends. Confidence for much of the period is low due in large
part to the problems guidance tends to have with split flow.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 23Z...Latest satellite loop showing some clearing along
the coast from KCRE up to KILM with a mid deck of bkn clouds
across KMYR as well as over KFLO. High pressure across inland
VA/NC/SC with a weak coastal trough off the NC/SC coast. issue
for tonight will be the light onshore flow across the region
bringing in some low level moisture and the chance of fog across
the terminals. Models differ on the extent of the cloud cover
which will impact our fog potential. Previous tafs had
introduced some IFR over inland zones where cloud cover may be
hard- pressed to materialize, but also extended to tempo group
for KMYR and KCRE. Otherwise VFR through the remainder of the
evening as well as soon after sunrise friday.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 PM Thursday...SCA in effect for all waters, mainly
due to seas reaching SCA thresholds. Update concerned with the
timing of the increasing seas. Frying pan shoals 41013 buoy
already having surpassed 7 ft with inshore buoys at 3 to 5 ft.
Overall, looking at 3 to 6 ft for seas by daybreak Fri and
holding steady thru Friday. Both the upper and sfc lows
respectively, were located over the Bahamas this evening and are
progged to lift northeast to a location at approximately 300
miles southeast of Cape Fear by daybreak Fri. The sfc pg will
remain somewhat loose, with 10 to 15 kt resulting, and the sfc
pressure pattern will yield NE wind directions. Could see
isolated light showers over the coastal waters, mainly north of
Little River Inlet.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...Advisory for seas much of Friday
as a SE swell plays out. NE 5-15 knot winds to accompany the
formidable swell, will become light and variable Friday night.
As a front approaches Saturday SW winds 10-20 knots to prevail
before a shift to the NW-N Saturday evening. An advisory or
exercise caution statement is possible just before and then
after the frontal passage. Very little precipitation expected so
no restrictions to visibility expected Saturday or in the
night, but the winds may be challenging and chop will run
moderate to strong.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...Offshore flow will weaken Sun as cold
advection shuts off and gradient weakens due to approach of the
center of the surface high. Northerly flow becomes light and
variable Sun night, becoming southerly Mon morning as the high
pushes off the coast. South to southwest flow increases to 10 to
15 kt Mon into Tue as gradient becomes a little more defined.
Seas 2 to 4 ft Sun drop to 2 to 3 ft Sun night and Mon before
the slight increase in southwest flow later Mon and Tue pushes
seas back up to 2 to 4 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ254-256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MAC



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