Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 031431
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1031 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON LATEST
SHORT RANGE DATA AND AFTER AN ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDING DATA.
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN COMBINATION WITH
A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES SHOULD MAKE FOR A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER WE GET SOME MORE HEATING. SPC NOW
HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX TODAY FOR OUR
NC COUNTIES...AND AN ENHANCED RISK FOR OUR SC COUNTIES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE SHIFTS TO CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ONCE AGAIN. THE NEW ECMWF IS A BIT FLATTER WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AND KEEPS THE TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SPC SEEMS TO AGREE AND KEEPS
ALL OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK HIGHLIGHTING THE SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF TENNESSEE. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S
EVENTS. MAINTAINED THE GOOD CHANCE POPS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. LEANED TOWARD THE MET NUMBERS
ONCE AGAIN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... WE SEEM TO GET INTO A LITTLE POCKET OF
PREFRONTAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR ON SATURDAY. THAT`S NOT TO SAY THAT
IT`S A RAIN-FREE DAY ESPECIALLY WITH SOME WEAKLY VORT-LADEN
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FAIRLY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY GRADED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER SRN HALF TO 30-ISH POPS OVER NORTHERN HALF. MOST
PLACES SHOULD WARM READILY INTO THE LOWER 90S. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IMPINGES
UPON THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND THE FRONT DROPS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NC. THE GFS PORTRAYS A MORE UNSETTLED DAY THAN
THE WRF. THE LATTER HAS A RATHER LARGE VORTICITY MINIMUM COMING
ACROSS BY 00Z THAT LOOKS A BIT SPURIOUS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A
BETTER DEFINED PIEDMONT TROUGH COMPARED TO THE WRF. OVERALL THE
GFS APPEARS MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL LOGICAL AND IS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS. MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE
A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP SWRLY FLOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NET
EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY
WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL FEATURE WEAKENS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A
REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND SURFACE MESOSCALE
FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS.
WITH WEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE THERE IS A CHANCE AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS AS OF
YET. CIGS SHOULD DECREASE AND LIFT TO VFR MID-LATE MORNING. SW
WINDS EXPECTED EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SUGGESTING AN OVERALL WET DAY TODAY. THIS SEEMS LIKELY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHERE EVEN WITHOUT HEATING SHOWERS
ARE DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE. WILL INDICATE VCSH IN
TAFS INTO THE EVENING WITH SHRA/VCTS/MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT AROUND 17Z
AND AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AS TO TIMING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ALTER THE SURFACE
WIND FIELD GREATLY BUT EXPECT WINDS TO RECOVER AFTER SEVERAL HOURS
TO AT PREDOMINATE SW DIRECTION. TSRA SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING
BUT CANT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SW AND COULD BE IFR STRATUS IN THE AM AGAIN BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. ANTICIPATE THAT WE WILL BE ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD ONCE THE LATEST DATA COMES IN. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE WATERS AS EVEN 41013
IS NOW DOWN TO JUST OVER TEN KNOTS SUSTAINED. WILL LET THE
HEADLINE CONTINUE UNTIL 1000 UTC. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN MUTED FOR
MOST OF THE DAY THEN CRANK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A MARGINAL AND SHORT DURATION EVENT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS NORMALLY
FOUND OFF OUR COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR COMPLIMENTS OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY BY A FRONT IN THE
MIDATLANTIC REGION. SOME ZONES MAY FLIRT WITH THE NEED FOR SCEC
HEADLINES MAINLY AS ONE HEADS NORTH WHERE THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO
TIGHTEN THE MOST. THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS ON SUNDAY AND THE FLOW
APPEARS TO RELAX SUFFICIENTLY TO WHERE ANY SCEC HEADLINES WILL NO
LONGER BE NEEDED.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER
WEAK MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY
DUE TO THE DOWN TICK IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FETCH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...99/REK/SHK


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