Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 141645
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1145 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure to our north will bring near seasonable
temperatures and dry conditions this week. A strong cold front
is expected to cross the coast this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Tuesday...SHort wave progressing rapidly eastwards
will soon bring an increase in cloud cover, mainly at the mid
and high levels. Nothing else of note weather-wise this morning,
still expecting a cool and dry day with below normal
temperatures. Forecast good to go with no changes anticipated.
Previous discussion from early this morning follows:

A westerly flow will continue at the mid levels with a
shortwave now in the Mississippi Valley to move across rapidly
this afternoon. This should have little impact on the weather
other than to spark a few clouds mostly of the mid level
variety. Beyond this surface high pressure will migrate slowly
from the Ohio Valley to the east. This will allow a very long
and narrow ridge extending from Maine down into the southeast to
develop. Highs today will be in the upper 50s to near 60 with
lows Wednesday morning in the upper 30s to near 40. There once
again could be some patchy frost inland in the low lying areas
but unless guidance changes appreciably, there shouldn`t be a
need for a NPW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 321 AM Tuesday...Seasonal temperatures and fair this
period in wake of an exiting short-wave, leaving a dry NW-W flow
aloft across the region Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday
warmer, as the upper flow trends toward zonal and downslope
forms in the low levels. Very weak short-waves slated to ripple
overhead early Thursday, should result only in mid/upper level
clouds at best. At the surface, weakening high pressure
Wednesday will be re-newed Thursday in wake of the exiting
short-wave.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Low amplitude flow aloft to keep surface
features very progressive, especially early in the period. High
pressure will move east across the region Thursday into Friday
allowing for a gradual warming trend, and possibly a downright
surge of warmth ahead of approaching cold front on Saturday.
This front comes through Saturday night bringing rain chances
though QPF prospects still appear minimal. Quite a cooldown is
slated following this boundary, though guidance seemingly unsure
about the magnitude of the cold i.e. whether or not we get into
some bona-fide arctic air.

&&

.AVIATION /18 UTC TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 18 UTC...High pressure ridging down the lee side of the
Appalachians today will continue through this TAF forecast
period. A shortwave aloft will cross the area and move off the
coast by 03 utc. This shortwave will only bring mid and high
level clouds. Winds will continue to be from the north for this
24 hour period. VFR is expected throughout.

Extended Outlook...VFR with a chance of showers with possible
MVFR/SHRA Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Tuesday...Latest obs show NEly winds with 3 to 5 ft
seas. Exercise Caution headlines will remain in effect through
today, with conditions moderating somewhat overnight. Previous
discussion from early this morning follows:

A persistent northeasterly flow will continue through the
period. Speeds will generally be in a range of 15-20 knots today
and increase a little tonight to 20-25 knots on the lower end
of the range. Significant seas will be 3-5 feet. There may be
the need for a short lived small craft advisory tonight bur for
now will maintain the SCEC headline.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 321 AM Tuesday...Moderate offshore N-NW winds expected
this period, and as such, higher gusts and larger seas will be
seen across the outer waters in general. High pressure to the
north will weaken briefly late Wed and early Thu, and winds will
ease noticeably. Re-newed high pressure Thursday however will
bring an uptick in winds by Thu evening in N winds gusting up to
20 Kt. NE wave energy will overall subside this period, and
dominant wave periods should increase to 8-9 seconds, with light
to moderate offshore chop, no TSTMS expected.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Monday...A pretty weak pressure gradient in place as
high pressure weakens. The overall wind direction will remain
northerly and seas capped at 2-3 ft. A new high then builds in
Friday briefly strengthening winds but then the high quickly
moves overhead both weakening the flow and leading to
considerable veering in direction as return flow sets up. With
the high then off the coast on Saturday the approach of a fairly
robust cold front will tighten the gradient sufficiently to
where headlines or even advisory may be needed.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...REK/SHK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DRH
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/SHK



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