Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 251430
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
930 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST...REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...VERY FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING. A PATCH OF CIRRUS IS MOVING OVERHEAD NOW BUT SHOULD BE
OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR ALL AREAS...COOLEST THE BEACHES
WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 3
HOURS. ALL IN ALL...A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR LATE JANUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A MULTI-CENTERED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
CROSSING THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THESE THREE LOWS
WILL CONGEAL INTO ONE BY EVENING WELL OFFSHORE EAST OF THE NC/VA
BORDER. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS SYSTEM
BEREFT OF BOTH GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND THEREFORE NOT A BIG
RAINMAKER. THE SYSTEM ALOFT IS QUITE STRONG AND THE MAIN VORT CUTS
TO OUR SOUTH SO ITS TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FEW DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
SPRINKLES IN ADDITION TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. AS THIS SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST COLD AND DRY ADVECTION
LOCALLY WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO TUESDAY AT WHICH
TIME 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT ABOUT -5C. MONDAY WILL THUS BE
SEASONABLE WHEREAS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE CHILLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY
AND THE LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION ENDS. HOWEVER SHALLOW MIXING OF THE
CHILLY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOME ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER CLIPPER
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT IT
WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME VERY SMALL
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR WARRANTED BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED. CHILLY AIR RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DO CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT W-NW WINDS AOB 6 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE S WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AOB 12 KT. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WINDS
WILL DECREASE BY THIS EVENING...BUT STILL EXPECT 4-8 KT OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BR KCRE/KMYR THIS EVENING...BUT THINK
TOO MUCH WIND WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. SOME MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
STRATUS CIGS TOWARDS THE END OF TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ATTM. MID LEVEL CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION/MVFR CIGS MON. VFR
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUE-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FOR THE NC WATERS AS BUOY DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT 6 FOOT SEAS WITHIN
20 MILES OF SHORE. SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 2-4 FEET EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO USE RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS (HRRR AND RUC) TO BETTER DEPICT THE FORMATION OF A SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS THE AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE BEACHES REACHES
10 DEGREES F.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP ON MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WITH MANY CENTERS CROSSES THE AREA EARLY AND CONGEAL WELL
OFF THE COAST. ANY ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND SEAS IF THEY OCCUR WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST ZONES. THIS SYSTEM REALLY
STRENGTHENS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BUT ACCORDING TO WNA WAVE PLOTS
SHOW THAT OUTER BANKS PREVENTS MUCH BACKSWELL LOCALLY SO WIND AND
SEAS BOTH EASING ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. BY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD MAKING FOR VERY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL WAVES.
LIGHT WINDS VEER ALL OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST
AND A CLIPPER AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM UPSTREAM. MUCH OF
THURSDAY WILL BRING A MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT MAY
CALL FOR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THE COLD SURGE THAT HITS THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGS PERHAPS AN ADVISORY LEVEL WIND FIELD BUT FOR WHAT
APPEARS TO BE QUITE A SHORT DURATION.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




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