Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 021757 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 150 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA TODAY BEFORE STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THROUGH THURSDAY AND SOME WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY... STORMS CONGREGATING SW TO NE ALONG THE INLAND-BOUND AND DECELERATING SEA BREEZE. SAT IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS MINIMAL CU DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THIS LINE AS PREVIOUS CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THESE AREAS. WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP RETURN SINCE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DAYLIGHT LEFT FOR DESTABILIZATION. THE HRRR HOWEVER WHICH IS INITIALIZING FAIRLY WELL AS OF LATE IS NOT OVERLY ENAMORED WITH THE IDEA OF STORMS REDEVELOPING. JUST WEST OF OUR CWA THE SKY DOES HAVE A MORE CONVECTIVE/CUMULUS APPEARANCE. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP THERE THEY MAY CLIP PART OF THE AREA WITH A GENERAL STORM MOTION FROM 210 DEGREES. SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE HOWEVER POPS WILL BE LOWERED A BIT WEST OF THE CURRENT LINE. SIMILARLY THE MARINE LAYER HAS LARGELY STABILIZED AREAS EAST OF THE LINE AND POPS GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE THERE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AND IT IS TOUGH TO SAY WHICH AREAS WILL BE FAVORED. THE COAST WILL BENEFIT FROM SOME CHANNELED VORTICITY WHILE HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT IMPINGE FROM THE WEST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MARCH SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN A BIT AS IT REACHES OVERHEAD BY FRI MORNING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TROUGH OR REFLECTION OF UPPER LOW AND ALONG SEA BREEZE/LAND BREEZE AND ANY OTHER LOCALIZED BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH MID WEEK. STEERING FLOW REMAINS VERY WEAK AND THEREFORE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH DRIVING THE SHWRS/TSTMS LENDING TO POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. MAY BE TOUGH TO TIME EXACT PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WHICH WILL ALSO BE FOLLOWED BY SOME PERIODS OF INCREASED SUBSIDENCE LENDING TO A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER SPOTS. OVERALL EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST WITH DAMAGING WINDS. EXPECT SMALLER DIURNAL RANGES IN TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE. TEMPS MAY NOT EVEN REACH 80 DURING THE DAY AS H5 HEIGHTS LOWER AS CUTOFF MOVES CLOSER OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...CUTOFF LOW SHOULD OPEN UP TO TROUGH AS IT WEAKENS SLOWLY REACHING OVERHEAD FRI MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE BY FRI AFTN AS IT BEGINS TO SLIP OFF THE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND FROM THE NORTH BUT LOOKS LIKE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY HANG AROUND NEARBY AS IT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. A DEEPER NW FLOW ON THE BACK END OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE FLOW FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND LOCALIZED SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE LOCALIZED FOR THE MOST PART WITH SOME BRIGHTENING OF SKIES. BY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY MON MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING THIS COLD FRONT EAST MON INTO TUES WITH INCREASED SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD AND ALONG FRONT. AFTER A SLIGHTLY LESS WARM START TO THE LONG TERM...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM IN INCREASING SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS AS CUT OFF LOW DEPARTS BY THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED TO OUR WEST WILL SEND US A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE CONVECTION...BUT IT IS SAFE TO SAY THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED. MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE IFR BY EARLY MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY... COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST MAY STILL MAKE ENOUGH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TO GET INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IF `PUSHED` A BIT BY RAIN COOLING. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY IN A VERY LIGHT PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME WITH A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. THE SEA BREEZE AND RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW MAY LEAD TO SHORT-LIVED DEVIATIONS FROM THIS TREND. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AS CUTOFF LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER WESTERN CAROLINAS SHIFTS EAST REACHING THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY FRI MORNING. OVERALL GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING FOR MORE VARIABLE WINDS ESPECIALLY AS SURFACE REFLECTION TO LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS. LIGHT SE TO S WINDS WED MORNING WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS FRONT DROPS SOUTH. WINDS MAY REACH UP TO 15 KTS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WED EVEN AND THEN BECOME MORE VARIABLE TO N-NW BY END OF PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT EXCEPT UP TO 4 FT WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WILL OCCUR IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...CUTOFF LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FRI MORNING WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A LINGERING FRONT TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FRI MORNING TO SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH. BY SATURDAY WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO THE SE AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND FRONT WEAKENS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SATURDAY AS FRONT REMAINS NEARBY. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AROUND TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BASICALLY 3 FT OR LESS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43

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