Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271738 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1238 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE CENTER OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RETURN WINDS BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW YEAR. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1230 PM SATURDAY...LATEST VSBY SATELLITE IMAGE TRENDS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A MAINLY SUNNY SKY ACROSS THE ILM CWA... THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON. SOME UPSTREAM CI AND/OR AC COMING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL AT TIMES PUSH ACROSS THE ILM CWA BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT. THE INITIAL DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL HELP SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE INITIALLY BEFORE REACHING THE ILM CWA. HOWEVER FOR TONIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ORIENTED FROM THE SW AFTER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THEREFORE...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN THE TAPPING OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AS FLOW ALOFT PICKS UP FROM THE SW. OVERALL...LOOKING AT AN INCREASE AND THICKENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL LAYER OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE COULD FUEL SC/ST DURING TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR. WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTN HIGHS...WHICH IN THIS CASE IS THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE. LOW TO MID 60S SHOULD COVER IT. WITH ADJACENT ATLANTIC SSTS IN THE 50S...THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND/OR BEACHES MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME BREAKING ABOVE 60.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH ELONGATED AND WEAKLY FORCED COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE MISSES OUR AREA TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS TO THE WEST WILL SEE RAIN...BUT OUR AREA COULD REMAIN DRY. IN FACT...MODELS HAVE NUDGED THE SURFACE RIDGE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LATEST CYCLES. CAVEAT TO THIS IS THE CAPE FEAR AREA WHERE THE NAM PAINTS A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS SUNDAY MORNING VIA LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PAST EXPERIENCE...THIS SEEMS TO HAPPEN A LOT AND I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MONDAY LOOKS A LITTLE MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE LIKELY PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY AND WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHS IN WILMINGTON SUNDAY. THE NAM/MET IS CONSIDERABLY COOLER PROBABLY DUE TO THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS. STILL EXPECT A WARM COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. NOT MUCH DIURNAL VARIATION DUE TO THE MOISTURE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AS A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH SPLITS AS LOW PRESSURE CLOSES OFF AND RETROGRADES SOUTHWEST OVER CALIFORNIA. ACROSS THE EAST A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW GETS KICKED OUT AND BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR AREA. SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDE A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL RESET TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY STABLE ALTHOUGH WITH THE ZERO DEGREE 850MB ISOTHERM ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA SOME VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL CYCLES. I DID MAINTAIN THE LOW CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 18Z...OTHER THAN SOME PASSING CIRRUS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BOTH PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS THIS AFTN AND EVENG. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...THICKENING UP THIS EVENING...WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BECOMING DOMINANT OVERNIGHT. A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ORIENTED ENE TO WSW ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...WITHIN A GSO TO GSP LINE...BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. SHRA-/R- WILL FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE THE ILM CWA...AND THE LOCAL TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY COME DOWN THRU THIS TIME PERIOD...DROPPING TO A MID-LEVEL AC/AS TONIGHT...AND WILL FURTHER AND PARTIALLY DROP TO A LOW LEVEL SC/CU CLOUD DECK. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ILLUSTRATING IR/LIFR CEILINGS BY DAYBREAK SUN AND THERE-AFTER. WILL HOLD OFF WITH THESE CEILINGS UNTIL THE VARIOUS MODELS MOS GUIDANCE AGREE WITH ONE ANOTHER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUE. VFR WED AND THU. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...NICE DOCILE DAY ON TAP FOR WFO ILM COASTAL WATERS. SFC PG RATHER LOOSE AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE LIES NEARLY OVERHEAD AT THE MOMENT. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS INITIALLY...WILL BECOME SW-WSW 10 KT LATER TONIGHT INTO SUN DUE TO RETURN FLOW HAVING SET UP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH EXITS INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE NOW A COMBINATION OF THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES...AND A NORTHEAST TO EAST 1-3 FOOT BONAFIDE GROUND SWELL WITH PERIODS AT 11-13 SECONDS. LOCAL BUOYS SUCH AS 41013 ARE PICKING UP ON THIS GROUND SWELL. AND FOR THE MOST PART...THIS GROUND SWELL IS DOMINATING THE OVERALL SIGNIFICANT SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPES UP WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY EVENING. WIND DIRECTIONS QUITE VARIABLE MONDAY WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO MOVE ACROSS. WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FORTUNATELY THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEMS KEEPS SPEEDS CAPPED AT TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE SAME WEAK WINDS KEEP SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN CHECK AT 1-3 FEET. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...RATHER CONSISTENT WIND FIELDS FOR THE EXTENDED MARINE FORECAST AS MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE...WELL TO THE WEST WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE WINDS AND SEAS. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...A NORTHERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED WITH THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE LOCAL WATERS. OVERALL EXPECT 2-4 FEET WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 3-5 FEET LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DCH

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