Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 141502 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1002 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE TOMORROW AS IT GETS OVERRUN WITH MOISTURE. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...THE AFTERNOON FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS STRAIGHT FORWARD. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST...MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. COLD ADVECTION HAS ALL BUT ENDED WITH A PERIOD OF NEUTRAL ADVECTION SETTING UP FOR TODAY. MOISTURE ALOFT SPREADING EAST IN THE PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO A STEADY INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED ALONG THE GULF COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ENDED UP A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED...PARTLY DUE TO PASSING CIRRUS AND PARTLY DUE TO HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY BUT DID BUMP UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO DEVELOP. THE MORE DIFFICULT FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS PRECIP POTENTIAL (BOTH CHANCES AND LIQUID VS FROZEN) OVERNIGHT AND HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE LAYER WARMS/MOISTENS. WHILE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ISOLATED ICING ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS AS THE PERIOD COMES TO AN END CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW. HAVE NO PLANS TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THIS MORNING BUT WITH THE LATEST DATA STARTING TO ROLL HOPE TO HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF HOW THE EVENT MIGHT PLAY OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOT SO WILLING TO BE ERODED AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN FACT THERE EXISTS UP TO A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS INLAND FOR MONDAY. A VAST MAJORITY OF TIME WHEN THIS IS THE CASE THE COLDER GUIDANCE ENDS UP BEING CORRECT. AS SUCH THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TOWARDS THE COOLER NUMBERS. GIVEN THE THREAT FOR PRECIP TO MANIFEST AS FREEZING RAIN OVER DEEP INTERIOR COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING THESE DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE CRITICAL. HAVING SAID THAT, THE WINDOW DURING WHICH ZR IS POSSIBLE REMAINS ONE OF LOW POPS AND MINIMAL QPF SINCE FOR THE SAME REASON THE HIGH IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT IT SHOULD ALSO BE SLOW TO SATURATE. A MODEL QPF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF IS THAT THE LATTER LIKES A WETTER COAST MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WELL-FORMED SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THAT MOST OF MONDAY`S FORCING IS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY DRY ABOVE 800 (OR IN SOME CASES 900) MB THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. THE WEDGE FINALLY DOES BREAK MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE MONDAY NIGHT, IN SOME PLACES DRAMATICALLY (LOW 60S BY MORNING?). THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT ALSO REPRESENTS WHEN THE APPROACHING SYSTEMS MID LEVEL ASCENT FORCEFULLY KICKS IN. AT THIS TIME EXPECT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE REGION. COULD NOT PINPOINT HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL SINCE HEIGHT FALLS AND PVA STRONGEST INLAND BUT COASTAL LOCATIONS ESP SC MAY SEE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOP, WHICH WILL THEN MOVE INTO CAPE FEAR TUESDAY MORNING. THE ENTIRE MOISTURE PLUME IS SHUNTED DECIDEDLY OFF THE COAST BY 18Z TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RELAXES. SPEAKING OF, IT IS THIS STRONG LLJ THAT WILL YIELD A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG THE COAST A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO AND FOLLOWING SUNRISE. SPC CONTINUES TO CAP THIS RISK AT MARGINAL. TUESDAY NIGHTS COLD ADVECTION LOOKS PRETTY LAZY AND SO THOUGH NOT AS MILD AS MONDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... THE LONG TERM WILL OFFER UP RAIN-FREE WEATHER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE SEASONABLE WITH BROAD, LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHINESS ONLY DRIVING A WEAK HIGH INTO THE MS VALLEY. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY OFF THE EAST COAST DRIVING A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH INTO SAME FOR A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH PRESSURE GROWS AND STRENGTHENS UP AND DOWN THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A WARMUP. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 12Z...THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...PERHAPS GUSTING TO 18 KTS OR SO AT TIMES. TONIGHT...A MID CLOUD CEILING WILL LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP WILL BEGIN FROM WEST TO EAST...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT THE MYRTLES. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...BUT LIKELY TOO WARM AT THE COAST WITH THE WEDGE ERODING TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT RAIN. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AND GAIN MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST SLIDES EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS EVENING. DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL TROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING OF WINDS WITH EAST OR EVEN SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 5 FT THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BE HOME TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLELING THE COAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE TRYING AND FAILING TO ADVANCE INLAND INTO WHAT REMAINS OF THE ARCTIC WEDGE. JUST EAST OF THE FRONT A MODERATELY STRONG GRADIENT AND LONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT MAY YIELD A DECREASE IN WINDS THE SEAS WILL BE GROWING TO ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WEDGE DETERIORATES AND THE BOUNDARY MOVES ASHORE THESE GRADIENT WINDS WILL ENTER THE MARINE ZONES WITH GUSTO. A LATE NIGHT APPROACH OF A STRONGLY FORCED COLD FRONT WILL VEER THE WINDS AND FURTHER TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE ABSENCE OF STABILITY ARGUMENTS. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT A VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE MOVING OVER THE MUCH COOLER SSTS VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE COMPROMISED. CURRENT FORECAST CONFINES A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO JUST A SMALL PART OF THE OUTER REACHES OF NC WATERS. TUESDAY MIDDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BRING AN ABRUPT TURN TO THE WEST AND A MARKED DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS LIKELY NEEDING TIL TUESDAY NIGHT TO SETTLE BELOW THRESHOLDS. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES UP AND DOWN THE MS VALLEY WITH NO STRONG GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE. LIGHT WIND AND DIMINISHING SWELL ENERGY LEADS TO ABATING SEAS. THE HIGH GROWS, STRENGTHENS, AND MOVES EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THE GRADIENT SHOULD ACTUALLY SLACKEN ESP LATE IN THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS NEARS. SEAS DROP IN HEIGHT BY ABOUT A FOOT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL

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