National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 101655
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1155 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING MORE
AND MORE UNSETTLED AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1130 AM TUESDAY...COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO FOR TODAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS. WARM AND MOIST AIR IN
PLACE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BUT RADAR SHOWING DISTINCT LINE OF
SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH DISTINCT WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT...BUT NO
TEMP CHANGE. THIS LINE WILL ADVANCE EAST BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF
PCP UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH AS NOTED ON OBS. THIS LINE WILL REACH THE
COAST BETWEEN 1 AND 2PM BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND IT.
FLORENCE AND LUMBERTON OBS SHOWED A GUST AROUND 30 MPH JUST AFTER 11
AM.

PCP WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TOO MUCH IN MOST PLACES AND THEN
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BY EARLY TO MID AFTN. TEMPS AT H85
WILL RISE UP TO 12C BY NOON TIME AND THEN WILL PLUMMET THROUGH
THIS AFTN DOWN CLOSE TO 4C BY MIDNIGHT.

COOLER WATERS KEEPING TEMPS MUCH COOLER...CLOSER TO 60...ALONG
THE BEACHES AND UP THROUGH BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE ON SHORE FLOW IS
MAXIMIZED. THIS IS ALSO LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEA FOG AS
WARMER MOISTER AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS MOVING ATOP THE COOLER
WATERS. ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS LOCALIZED FOG
OVER SHELF WATERS SOUTH MAINLY ADVECTING FROM SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR ON
SHORE OVER BRUNSWICK COUNTY.

LLJ UP TO 55 KTS PUMPING PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE INDICES LOOK LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME LOW TOP
CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. BEST LIFT SHOULD COME
JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING A NARROW
WINDOW BUT MAY INCLUDE MENTION OF ISO THUNDER IN GRIDS. SFC BASED
CAPE VALUES REACH UP TO 600 JKG. MAY SEE MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER
COME INTO PLAY AS STORMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT EXPECT
SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE W-NW BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
COLD AIR WILL LAG BEHIND. PLENTY OF COLD AND DRY AIR WILL ADVECT
IN AND SCOUR OUT ALL THE LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND ANY SHOWERS OR PCP
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS A STRONG COLD SURGE BARRELS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH ABOUT A 40
DEGREE DROP IN BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINT TEMPS BY MORNING AS COLD
AND DRY AIR COMES RUSHING IN. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL COMBINE
WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION TO ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO DIP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF AN INITIAL
WESTERLY FLOW TRANSITIONING INTO MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY.
THE ONLY FORECAST DILEMMA IS TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH KEEP EVEN
CLOUDS OUT OF THE MIX FOR THE MOST PART.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL REINFORCE THE
COLD AIR THURSDAY WITH 850MB VALUES ACTUALLY DROPPING TO JUST BELOW
ZERO DEGREES C. THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS CRITICAL AS
THE MET IS A LITTLE QUICKER AND HENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
GUIDANCE BULLETINS ARE ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER. THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO OPT FOR A BLEND. FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SCENARIO FOR THE WEEKEND. A SOMEWHAT DEEP
ALBEIT PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND ATTEMPT TO PHASE WITH A MODEST SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. THIS ALLOWS
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVE
UP THE COAST...EVENTUALLY REDEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA AND
DEEPENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE FASTER OF THE GUIDANCE
AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MATCH ADJACENT OFFICES BETTER BUT OVERALL
THE LIONS SHARE OF POPS/QPF WILL OCCUR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR LATER SUNDAY FOR THE SAME REASONS. NO
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AN AREA OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS IS ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...MOVING SLOWLY EAST. THE HRRR MODEL HAS THIS BATCH OF
SHOWERS MOVING OUR OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...REPLACE WITH
ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND BOTH
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INLAND
TERMINALS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. POST
FRONTAL...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST...GUSTY WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. AN MVFR CEILING MAY BRIEFLY
OCCUR...PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM TUESDAY...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE
WATERS BUT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL WORK THEIR WAY IN BEHIND LINE
OF CONVECTION HEADING OVER THE WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. FRYING PAN SHOWING SEAS
CLOSE TO 9 FT...AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN W-NW AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
CAUSING NEAR-SHORE SEAS TO SUBSIDE. ALL LOCAL WATERS WILL DROP
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW BY
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS NOT TOO BAD CONSIDERING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. FOR
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND TEN KNOTS AND
MAY BE LOWER AS THE PATTERN BRIEFLY RELAXES LATE IN THE DAY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS AGAIN THURSDAY WHICH WILL KICK WINDS UP TO
15-20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL BE REFLECTIVE OF THE
WINDS...1-3 FEET MOST OF WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY INCREASING
WITH THE WINDS TO 3-5 FEET LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...EXPECT RELATIVELY BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS FOR
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS
INCREASE AND VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHEAST. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT OVERALL MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT THIS TREND OF INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS FOR SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL