Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 011836 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 236 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MAY SINK SOUTH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1:30 PM MONDAY...THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE MASSIVE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN THE FEATURE OF NOTE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE SEA BREEZE...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND LATER THE LAND BREEZE. CONVECTION HAS YET TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND I HAVE BACK OFFED POPS SOMEWHAT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL PERIODS WITH THE LAND BREEZE AND ATLANTIC SHOWERS DEVELOPING. VERY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND I HAVE OPTED FOR THE WARMER MET NUMBERS FOR LOWS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 2:30 PM MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A STEADY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS BUT EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRANSITS OVERHEAD. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IF IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING WE COULD SEE GREATER POPS THAN THE 40 PERCENT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PLAYER IN THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCI FOR CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S MOST PLACES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THAT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS A BIT MORE SEASONAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 2:30 PM MONDAY...TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH CAROLINA OUT TO THE E-NE INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD ACT AS FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THURS ALONG WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL BE MORE N-NE ON EASTERN EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND SHOULD DRAG MOISTURE SOUTH. THE PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW THIS NICELY WITH HIGH RH VALUES LOCKED IN ABOVE H5. THEREFORE EXPECT PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP GREATEST POPS OVER NORTH CAROLINA ZONES ON THURS. BY FRI A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ANY REMNANTS OF LINGERING FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD RETREAT NORTH AND DISSIPATE LEAVING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS FOCAL POINTS FOR CONVECTION ON FRI IN A CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. THEREFORE MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF AREA. A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THEREFORE EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN BEHIND FRONT MON INTO TUES WITH A CHANGE IN AIR MASS LEADING TO TO DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER. BUT ECMWF HOLDS FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDING ON FOR MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS UP AROUND 90 OR SO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 OR SO. SHOULD SEE TEMPS LOWER BY END OF WEEKEND IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION AND MAY SEE LOWER TEMPS FOR MON INTO TUES IF FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 18Z...A LAND BREEZE EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTED MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OFFSHORE. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE STARTING LATER AND THERE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS EARLIER ANTICIPATED. GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE SW-W AT 5KT AND S AT 10-15KT IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT PENETRATE TOO FAR INLAND DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT. THE FOCUS OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE INLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE WILL NOT INDICATE IN KFLO/KLBT TAFS ATTM. THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE BUT MAINTAIN A 5 KT SPEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG AT THE INLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN BR AND A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRE-DAWN SHOWERS AT KILM. AFTER 13Z VFR EXPECTED TERMINAL WIDE WITH SW-W WINDS...BECOME S-SW LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1:30 PM MONDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEN KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON SHAPING UP TO 10-15 FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET WITH A FEW FOUR FOOTERS DEVELOPING LATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST WATERS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 2:30 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ON THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. WEAKER GRADIENT AT NIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 2:30 PM MONDAY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND BERMUDA HIGH. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE DOMINATING THE FLOW AS WELL AS ENHANCEMENT DUE TO PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HEIGHTS LESS THAN 3 FT AND SLIGHT CHOP IN THE AFTN SEA BREEZE. BY LATE SATURDAY...A FRONT SHOULD REACH INTO THE CAROLINAS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT AND INCREASE IN S-SW FLOW LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MRR MARINE...REK/RGZ/SHK

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.