Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 110751 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 351 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...WE ARE ABOUT TO ENTER A LULL IN PRECIPITATION AS THE LAST OF THE LATEST ROUND OF RAIN EXITS THE CAPE FEAR REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. THE THREAT OF FLOODING HAS ENDED FOR THE NIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LOSE DEFINITION BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH P/W VALUES IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRYING AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. BESIDES THE FRONT...OTHER TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND A CONTINUED SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN H/5 TROUGH SITUATED OVERHEAD. ATMOSPHERE NOT AS UNSTABLE AS YESTERDAY SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE QUITE THE COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THAT WE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED. HOWEVER...STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW WITH A VERY WEAK UPPER WIND PROFILE. SO...THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A TAD BELOW NORMAL TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S AT THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S INLAND. LOWS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 70 MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL PERIOD DURING THE WKND AS A COLD FRONT WASHES OUT/LIFTS BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY THANKS TO INCREASING RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. WHILE SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PRETTY TYPICAL DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES...SUBSIDENCE BENEATH INCREASING THICKNESSES AND DRYING W/NW FLOW WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON SUNDAY...AND EXPECT FEWER TSTMS SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY. TEMPS DURING THE WKND WILL BE AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S SATURDAY...AND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON SUNDAY THANKS TO THE INCREASED MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND DECREASED CLOUD COVER. MINS BOTH NIGHTS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...A VERY ATYPICAL PATTERN SET TO DEVELOP MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH...MORE TYPICAL OF FALL/WINTER THAN MID-SUMMER...DIVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES. GUIDANCE IS...AND HAS BEEN...IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. WHILE INITIALLY THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD SOUTHERN RIDGING...THIS TROUGH WILL BARREL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES TO THE LOCAL AREA. BENEATH THIS TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALL INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE. THIS SUGGESTS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR INCREASED POP TUE/WED...BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AND AREAS FOG INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AFFECTING SOME OF THE TERMINALS...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL/LOW CIGS CREATING MVFR/IFR. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING COVERAGE. COULD SEE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED...POSSIBLY CREATING MVFR/IFR DUE. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PERSIST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AOB 15 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY CONVECTION. ON FRIDAY...ANTICIPATE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE INLAND SITES AT ONE POINT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORM. INTO THE EVENING HOURS CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...BUT ANTICIPATE RAINFALL TO PERSIST ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SHRA/TSRA ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...EXPECT LIGHT AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE NW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAVERING IN THE VICINITY WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MUCH OF SATURDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW DURING SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE REGAINS ITS INFLUENCE LOCALLY...WITH SPEEDS RISING TO 10-15 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL BE ONLY 1-2 FT ON THE LIGHT WINDS...RISING TO 2-3 FT SUNDAY AS THE WINDS INCREASE AND A SE GROUND SWELL DEVELOPS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND RIDGING BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE MARINE CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS OFFSHORE HIGH WILL DRIVE SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL RISE FROM 10-15 KTS TO AS MUCH AS 20-25 KTS LATE TUESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE STEADILY INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS AS WELL...WITH 6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE EXTENDED. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...REK MARINE...REK/JDW

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