Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281015 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 615 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to bring oppressive heat and humidity to the region through Saturday. The high will begin to break down this weekend leading to good chances of showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday and continuing through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 615 AM Thursday...Another hot day for the region as high pressure at the surface to the south and the Piedmont trough continue. At 850 mb temperatures will run between 19.5 and 20.5 degrees Celsius. This will allow for the maximum temperatures to range between 97 to 99 degree over much of the inland areas. Will see mid 90s closer to the coast and a tad cooler if you are lucky enough to be at the beach. The hot temperatures combined with the dewpoints in the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s at the coast will help to raise the heat indices into the 106 to 109 degree range. As expected a heat advisory will be issued again for the area from 11 AM until 8 PM. Looking at the model sounding from the GFS and NAM it appears convection in most area will be hard to generate so will keep the pops just below 20%.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Thursday...The high pressure aloft is being projected to being shunted to the southeast and a weak 500 mb trough will setup over the Ohio Valley. This should allow for only slight cooling but should allow diurnal convection to develop on Friday and Saturday. So will continue with a slight chance of thunderstorm but widespread rainfall is not expected. Maximum temperatures are expected only to drop into the middle 90s during the day and the heat indices are expected to fall from todays 106 to 109 range to 103 to 105 range. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 AM Thursday...Its shaping up to be a somewhat unsettled period as the mid level ridge will be relenting to a subtle and slow moving trough over the Tennessee Valley. The trough actually deepens through Tuesday and then basically fills. At the surface the second half of the period will feature a cold front moving into the area and dissipating as well. Long story short, good chances of showers and thunderstorms will be the story each day. Difficult to say what period pops will be highest but it seems the coupling of the front late Monday into Tuesday with the deepening trough makes more sense. The same time is probably more conducive to severe weather with an increase in shear although this time of year it seems fair game anytime. There is a bit of cooling now showing up at least in the GFS regarding thermal profiles as 850mb temperatures drop off a couple of degrees Wednesday. Still, most of the slight cooling trend is courtesy of the convection/moisture. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 06Z...Once again a persistence forecast for the aviation community. Mid level ridge will actually strengthen a bit through the period with high confidence in VFR conditions. Some gustiness expected once again today as well via deep mixing inland and the sea breeze for the coastal terminals. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon convection through Sunday may create brief periods of MVFR/IFR. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 615 AM Thursday...High pressure and the Piedmont trough over the Carolinas will continue to produce southwest winds of 15 knots today with 3 ft seas. A southeast swell of 1 ft every 8 seconds will continue today with the wind wave of 2 to 3 feet every 5 seconds. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Thursday...Very little change with the surface pattern except for a slight tightening of the pressure gradient as the Piedmont trough shifts closer to the coast on Friday and Saturday. Southwest winds of 15 to 20 knots will continue with seas of 3 ft. There may be an occasional 4 ft wave at 20 miles off the coast mainly north of Little River on Friday and Saturday. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 315 AM Thursday...Southwest winds of 10-15 knots will continue across the waters. Better chances for some convecton to distort local wind fields however. Significant seas, absent any appreciable swell component will be 1-3 feet.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...HAWKINS LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SHK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.