Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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106 FXUS62 KILM 300549 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 149 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Intermittent rain will stay in the area through Tuesday until the tropical system makes its slow departure. Moisture will hang around for most of the week so while sunshine should return in part there will still be a scattering of storms each day. A cold front will approach next weekend and may stall over the area keeping unsettled weather through next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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As of 1030 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Bonnie was located over eastern SC. Precipitation coverage was meager. Have already knocked down POPs earlier and will hit it again given the latest trends. Due to the nocturnal aspect of pcpn and tropical systems, thinking that an increase in overnight pops from the rather docile moisture feeds that continue to move onshore. I believe if ssts were another 5 degrees warmer, the onshore moving convective plumes would be alot more active by this time. Will still continue with increasing the onshore movement overnight but with the days insolation over-with, the instability will not be there for additional convective activity to blossom over land. One thing to note is that models have come better in line with taking the sse-s moisture plume affecting the fa and shunting it eastward from the ILM CWA during Monday. As a result, the FA will not have that direct Tropical connection like the past several days. However, the tropical air mass already across the fa, and with local progged pws in the 1.75 to 2.00 inch range, will only need the Monday morning insolation to start/crank up the instability and in turn the diurnally driven convective engine. Have tweaked tonights lows up by a degree or 3, with just about the entire ILM CWA staying at or above the 70 degree mark tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Bonnie is forecast to drift east-northeast across northeastern South Carolina, ending up over the Cape Fear Region early on Tuesday. Thereafter Bonnie is expected to drift to the northeast and out of the area. Latest guidance starts out the short term with some dryer air at the mid- levels, with the column again becoming saturated fairly quickly. In any case there will be ample tropical moisture to work with as P/W values will be in excess of 1.75 inches through the period. Unsettled weather will continue through the short term with bouts of heavy rain being the primary threat. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sunday...The slow moving TD or remnant low from Bonnie should be near Cape Lookout Wednesday morning continuing on its slow northern track toward Hatteras through the day. Should see some drier air wrap around the back end into the area but still plenty of low level moisture to contend with. Therefore will continue with some clouds through Wed with Pcpn being more localized. A continued diminishing trend in moisture will occur through mid week into Thurs with increasing sunshine and warming temps reaching well into the 80s. The NW to W flow, or more off shore flow on the back end of departing low will come against sea breeze to produce some locally heavier rain or stronger convection. GFS shows decent coverage Thurs aftn just inland of the coast where best convergence and lift will be as winds begin to come around to the SW. Winds will shift around to a deeper SW flow of moisture as shortwave pushes a cold front toward the Carolinas Fri into the weekend. Expect pcpn water values back up near 2 inches late Fri into Saturday as moisture pools ahead of cold front. This front may reach into the area and stall over the weekend. Overall expect some clearing on the back end of the low through mid week as moisture diminishes on back end of departing low, but then increasing again as cold front moves in and possibly stalls over the Carolinas over next weekend. For now, kept chc pops in most days to account for some uncertainty. Temps will be well up into the 80s most days with overnight lows remaining quite high with such a moist air mass in place. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 06Z...Expect periods of low cigs, with an increasing risk for showers and a few thunderstorms as heating gets underway this morning. Periods of mainly MVFR conditions are expected through the valid TAF period as Tropical Depression Bonnie creeps northward. Otherwise expect VFR. East-southeast winds around 5 kt will become south-southeast around 12 kt after daybreak and then light during the evening hours. Extended Outlook...Expect unsettled weather through Thursday with possible SHRA/isolated TSRA and TEMPO MVFR/IFR conditions.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 100 AM Monday... a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the northern waters into Mon night. A Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline has been posted for the southern waters into Mon eve. At the moment, Tropical Depression Bonnie was located near Charleston. It will basically meander across eastern South Carolina into Monday. The overall pressure gradient will continue to slowly relax, especially with Bonnie meandering over land. Will be looking at a general sse-ssw wind direction at 10 to 20 kt with a few 25 kt gusts possible. The synoptic fetch from the circulation around the bermuda high will become more dominant as the fetch associated with Bonnie continues to shrink. Overall, will be looking at significant seas at 3 to 5 ft ILM SC Waters...and 3 to 6 for the ILM NC Waters. Dominating periods will run 7 to 9 seconds. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Bonnie is forecast to drift east- northeast across northeastern South Carolina, ending up over the Cape Fear Region early on Tuesday. Thereafter Bonnie is expected to drift to the northeast and out of the area. The gradient associated with Bonnie will not be strong enough to bring winds or seas up to advisory criteria so do not expect any flags during the short term. Seas will generally hover in the 3 to 4 ft range, with winds of 10 to 15 kt. The greatest threat during the short term will be from heavy showers, which will be possible through the period, and the odd thunderstorm. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM Sunday...As TD or remnant low from Bonnie drifts slowly up the NC coast on Wed, winds should be more off shore and weakening allowing seas to relax even further. Overall expect a W-NW on Wed to come around to the W-SW and eventually SW by later on Thurs into Friday. The off shore flow will allow seas to drop below 3 ft by late Wed into Thurs with a slow rising trend heading into the weekend in minor southerly push in increased gradient winds due to an approaching cold front. Winds will basically remain S-SW less than 15 kt late Thurs into the weekend with seas rising slightly Fri night but remaining in the 2 to 4 ft range.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT this morning for SCZ054- 056. NC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ110. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NCZ106-108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...DCH/RJD SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...RJD/SGL

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