Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241731 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1231 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 945 AM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIND AND RAIN OVERNIGHT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT IS NOW OFF THE COAST WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HAS ENDED WITH ONLY A FEW SMALL AREAS LINGERING OVER COASTAL NC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS INLAND NC/SC. ALTHOUGH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STABLE DRY LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 850 TO 700 MB...A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEPENING LOW. DESPITE THE SUBSIDENCE THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS ON THE STRONGER SIDE AND HAS SOME MOISTURE WITH IT. GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF PVA AROUND PEAK HEATING CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY INLAND. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING POP TO ZERO FOR THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL STEADILY INCREASE WHILE ALONG THE COAST A SLIGHT DIP DURING THE LATE MORNING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SUNDAY OFFERS UP SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE PATTERN IS RATHER WEAK AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY OCCLUDED CLIPPER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM NW TO SE SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS RAPIDLY...AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES. IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BENEFIT FROM ANY GULF OR ATLANTIC MOISTURE...BUT WILL STILL BRING ISO TO SCT SHOWERS FROM THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS IS THROUGH BY 18Z MONDAY BUT SINCE THE SYSTEM IS OCCLUDED THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO NECESSITATE THE LOW POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY...AGAIN STRESSING THAT COVERAGE AND QPF WILL BOTH BE QUITE LOW. THOUGH TECHNICALLY OFFERING A SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURE MONDAY MAY FEATURE FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS EARLY MONDAY WILL CARRY AN ARCTIC FRONT EAST ACROSS AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE COAST EARLY MON AFTN WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE RIDING RIGHT OVER CAPE FEAR. THIS SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEAVING A LOW END CHC OF PCP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTN. BY EVENING PLENTY OF COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA IN DEEP N-NW FLOW AS WE TAP INTO AN ARCTIC AIR MASS. LOOKS LIKE 850 TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW 0C FROM MON EVE UNTIL THURS MORNING. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL COME ON TUES AS 850 TEMPS REACH AS LOW AS -7 C. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S MOST PLACES BOTH TUES AND WED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD KEEPING POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDS THROUGH TUES BEFORE THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT COMPLETELY IN REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AND DRY AIR. PCP WATER VALUES DROP DOWN FROM CLOSE TO A HALF INCH ON MON DOWN TO NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR WED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON THURS WILL ALLOW AIR MASS TO MODIFY BRIEFLY AND WARM SLIGHTLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 50S BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY KNOCKING TEMPS BACK DOWN AGAIN.THIS FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE AND SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PCP. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 18Z...THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL OFFSHORE. A TRAILING UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN. CIGS ARE NOW AROUND 1K EXCEPT AT KILM WHERE CIGS ARE STILL IFR. MVFR CIGS MAY DROP TO IFR THROUGH 19Z BUT GENERAL TREND IS UPWARD. CIGS WILL BREAK UP AND SKIES SCATTER AS THE UPPER IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH ABOUT 19-20Z AT KFLO/KLBT AND 20-21Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT W-NW 23-01Z AND MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS A QUICK MOVING SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS BECOME S-SW LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD BUT THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN TAFS ATTM. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SUN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION/MVFR CIGS MON. VFR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUE-THURS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF NOON SATURDAY...HAVE ALLOWED GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE WHICH HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A SCA THROUGH 06Z. ALTHOUGH GALE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT ISOLATED GUSTS OF GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS NC WATERS. SC WATERS MAY FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BEFORE 06Z. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS GRADUALLY DECREASING AS GRADIENT RELAXES. SPEEDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WIND COMPONENT WILL BE OFFSHORE THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS IS LIKELY TO KEEP 6 FT AND HIGHER SEAS WITHIN 20 NM. WINDS SPEEDS DROP UNDER 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT AND TO 10 TO 15 KT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS...FALLING TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL NEED FOR LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR LOW TIDE LATER TODAY. LATEST FORECAST KEEP ALL SITES JUST ABOVE LOW WATER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SUNDAY FOLLOWING RATHER ACTIVE NEAR TERM WEATHER AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOC WITH BIG STORM IN NEW ENGLAND FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND OUT OF OUR AREA. WHAT REMAINS IS LIGHTER FLOW THAT BACKS IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY WEARS ON IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT FLOW WILL TURN TO SW AND PICK UP BUT NOT QUITE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS. MULTI-CENTERED LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EARLY MONDAY WITH A W TO NW COOL SURGE THEREAFTER. LATEST GUIDANCE A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ENSUING WINDS AND SEAS AND AN ADVISORY PROBABLY NOT GOING TO MATERIALIZE EVEN THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO 25KT APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN THE WELL-ALIGNED LOW LEVEL FLOW. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY MONDAY WITH A DEEP COLD NW TO N FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH MID WEEK. SHOULD SEE GUSTY NW WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS. SEAS AROUND 3 TO 5 FT WILL KICK SEAS UP BRIEFLY BUT THE OFF SHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME THROUGH TUES AS WINDS VEER MORE TO THE NORTH AND GRADIENT SLACKENS...BUT A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AND DRY AIR WILL COME TUES NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH WED. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS AGAIN TUES NIGHT INTO WED WITH SEAS APPROACHING SCA THRESHOLDS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR

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