Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 020205 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1005 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND...PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A THIN LAYER OF UNSTABLE AIR AT THE TOP OF TODAY`S DEEP MIXED LAYER ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THIS IS NOT A SITUATION I WOULD HAVE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHIN GIVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY BASED AROUND 6500 FEET AGL AND BONE-DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 700 MB. NEVERTHELESS THERE ARE SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM FLORENCE NORTHWARD TO NEAR BINGHAM IN WESTERN DILLON COUNTY. INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS ADDITIONAL MID- LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO ROBESON COUNTY NC...SO I HAVE TO AT LEAST CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH AS WELL. AT THE SURFACE HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAVE RETURNED WESTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN WITH 70S SHOWING UP AGAIN IN LUMBERTON... MARION AND FLORENCE. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE TOO THIN TO BE FEEDING THE CONVECTION DIRECTLY...AS THE SURFACE IS LIKELY DECOUPLED FROM THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS DO NOT REALLY SHOW THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY WELL...ALTHOUGH INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z NAM DOES. THE NAM MOVES THE SHOWERS EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...DISSIPATING THE CONVECTION BETWEEN 06-09Z NEAR MYRTLE BEACH. AT 500 MB THE CAROLINAS FORM THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 700 MB SHOULD CONTINUE ON WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL NUDGE OUR FRONT OFF THE COAST INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVERNIGHT...AND WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING I ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-95 WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST. LOWS SHOULD FALL 70-74...WARMEST AT THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN AREA SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN PLACE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A BROAD...FLAT-ISH H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF CONVECTION DESPITE PRESENCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AIR ALOFT IS DRIEST INLAND...SO WILL SHOW A DECREASING GRADIENT IN POPS NW FROM THE COAST FOR BOTH DAYS. DUE TO OVERALL LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT LOW CHANCE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH FAR INLAND AREAS BEING POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH AROUND A 100 OR SO BOTH AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCEEDED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY WILL BE POOLED UP ALONG THE COAST. MINOR RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED THERE DURING AN OTHERWISE HOT AFTERNOON PROVIDED IN PART BY A VERY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS WEAK THOUGH THE SENSE OF RIDGING WEAKENS. SO WILL KEEP POPS MINIMIZED BUT SHOW THEM AREA- WIDE. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO SCATTERED ON THURSDAY AS SOME WEAKLY CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND A SURFACE PIEDMONT TROUGH TAKES SHAPE. ANOTHER LITTLE PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY BE ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY. ON SATURDAY NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE CONTINUED DISTURBANCES IMPINGING UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BOTH SEE RATHER HOT AFTERNOONS WHEREAS THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT BACK TOWARDS CLIMO. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 23Z...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. CONVECTION FIRED UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY NEAR AND OVER KILM THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT PERIOD TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS ALSO EXPECTED CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY KILM. WILL MAKE MENTION AFTER 08Z IN ALL TERMINALS FOR FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR TO RETURN AFTER 12Z AND SUNDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIKE TODAY WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AND THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP VFR IN ALL TERMINALS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR IN VSBY/CEILING IF CONVECTION OCCURS OVER A TERMINAL. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD NUDGE THE FRONT EASTWARD AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING AS HIGH AS 15 KNOTS IN THE CAPE FEAR AREA SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATE AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST. THE PRIMARY WAVE SET IS A 7-SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL...WITH A SMALLER 10-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL SHOWING UP. THESE TWO WAVES WILL CONTINUE INDEPENDENT OF THE WIND OVERNIGHT...WITH COMBINED SEAS 2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A STALLED FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXTENDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK INTO A SWLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE WATERS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WIND AND SEAS RELAX ON TUESDAY AS PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS PUSHES THE TIGHTER GRADIENT CAUSED BY THE BERMUDA HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THOUGH SOME SWELL ENERGY MAY REMAIN WE SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THEREAFTER IT LOOKS LIKE PRETTY STANDARD FARE FOR JULY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS 1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME THIS LUNAR CYCLE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REK NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MAC TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD

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