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999
FXUS62 KILM 072334
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
734 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain between an inland trough and Atlantic high
pressure into Thursday with unseasonably warm and humid
conditions expected. Mostly limited showers and storms expected
through Wednesday. A cold front moves through late in the work
week bringing a better chance of rain and possible strong to
severe storms. High pressure will then follow bringing drier
and cooler conditions for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
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No changes to the forecast with the early evening update. Good
storms well off to the northwest seem to be taking more of an
eastward direction as they strengthen thus the mostly dry
forecast for the overnight hours remains intact.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight: Mainly isolated showers and storms ahead of another upper
shortwave along the sea breeze, differential heating boundaries
and/or convective outflows are expected to wind down early this
evening with a dry night thereafter. Can`t completely rule out a
strong to severe storm if any updrafts can get strong enough given
sufficient DCAPE and hail CAPE. Otherwise, an unseasonably warm
night is on tap with mostly just some mid/high clouds and lows
around 70 most locales.

Although there is not much tidal departure, the high astronomical
tides due to the new moon could still produce minor coastal flooding
along the lower Cape Fear River and thus we have issued a Coastal
Flood Advisory for late this evening into very early Wednesday.

Wednesday: Likely the warmest day of the year so far as mid-level
ridging builds. We undercut 1000-850 mb thickness scheme temps which
would suggest mid 90s given at least some cloud cover. We are
currently forecast a tie of the record high in Wilmington (ILM) and
a degree shy at Florence. Otherwise, the combination of such temps
along with fairly high dewpoints near 70 will heat indices in the
mid to upper 90s, although still shy of our 105 degree Heat Advisory
criteria. But given it`s the first real significant heat of the
season and many have not acclimated just yet, folks should still be
cautious if they will be outside for any length of time.
Otherwise, expect isolated to scattered convection to develop
during the afternoon, mainly inland from the SC Pee Dee
northeast to the NC Sandhills. Despite marginal deep layer
shear, instability looks plenty sufficient to support a few
severe storms later in the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Ridge will be located offshore Wed evening with moving through
mainly NC Wed eve. Looks like main convective activity with this
shortwave will remain north and west of area, but there is a chc
for a shwr or storm late day Wed into Wed night. SC will have
less of a chc. After passage of this shortwave, Thurs morning
should start out quiet, but cold front will be approaching the
Carolinas late Thurs into Fri. The flow aloft remains rather
flat Thurs aftn with only minor perturbations in the flow aloft
until mid to upper trough digs down from the Great Lakes into
Fri. A pretty decent cap Thurs gets eroded on Fri as deep
trough approaches. Looks like best chc of stronger storms may be
with shortwave Wed night, ahead of front and especially on Fri
as mid to upper trough pushes cold front through. Could possibly
see some hail on Fri as mid level heights drop with cool pool
aloft and increasing mid level lapse rates. Both the GFS and
ECMWF show shortwave riding up from the SW around deeper trough,
but EC keeps it south of area on Fri while the GFS moves it
through the Carolinas. Therefore, timing may be off, but
overall, should see potential for a few periods of shwrs and
storms Wed night through Fri time period.

Airmass will remain warm and humid until front passes on Fri.
Temperatures up around 90 on Thurs will be tampered by clouds
and convection on Fri with 80s for highs Fri. Temps Wed night
and Thurs night will remain in the 70s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Once cold front and upper level trough move off the coast on
Fri, plenty of dry and cooler air will move in for the weekend.
Pcp water values up to 1.8 inches in moisture pooling ahead of
front will drop down to less than a half inch by Sat morning.
Dewpoint temps up near 70 in convection Wed night through Fri
will drop down to less than 50 on Sat as dry high pressure
builds in. High Temps in the 70s on Sat will be back near or
above 80 Sun and Mon, which is about normal for this time of
year. The air mass will begin to modify slightly as the high
moves off the coast, but overall dry westerly flow will remain
aloft. A weak backdoor cold front may drop into the area Sun
night or Mon, but have not included any chc of pcp for now as
models differ with timing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR expected through the period. The boundary layer will remain
somewhat to well mixed overnight with little to no chance of
fog. While there could be some stratus especially late
tonight...probably just dry enough to keep limited as well.

Extended Outlook...Looking at VFR dominating Wed into early Thu
with isolated convection. Threat of more widespread strong
convection and periodic flight restrictions later Thu into early
Fri ahead of a CFP. Clearing later Fri with VFR dominating thru
Sat with high pressure prevailing.
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&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...The local waters will remain between
Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough which will keep elevated
southwest winds in place. Gusts could reach or even exceed Small
Craft Advisory levels (25 kt) at times but confidence/coverage isn`t
great enough to warrant raising a headline at this time. Seas look
to stay about 4 ft or less.

Wednesday night through Sunday...
Southwesterly flow typical of the warm season will remain in
place Wed night through Thurs. The persistence southerly push
should drive seas up and by late Thursday we may reach SCA
criteria possibly for winds and seas. Seas around 3 to 4 ft will
reach up to 4 to 6 ft late Thur into Fri dropping back down to 3
to 4 ft Fri night and down 3 ft or less for the weekend.

Winds will veer as cold front nears Thurs night into early Fri
with a shift to N-NW later Friday. Winds may reach as high as 25
to 30 kts in gusts Wed night through Fri until front passes. NW
to N winds on Sat will back to the W-SW as high pressure
migrates across the Southeast, shifting offshore by the end of
the weekend.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH/RJB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...RJB/RGZ