Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 041012 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 612 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOLLOWED BY UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 615 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF UNSEASONABLE HEAT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS SET TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE MID 90S MOST PLACES WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. FORTUNATELY...DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN RECENTLY EXPERIENCED...AND ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 70. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL SEE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE COLUMN DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. AVAILABLE MOISTURE NOT QUITE AS PLENTIFUL AS YESTERDAY...WITH P/W VALUES OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNAL-TYPE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INITIAL FOCUS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET...ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES DO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...MID/UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER TX AND NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTS A BROAD BUT WEAK TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED AS A RESULT. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BRINGING COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LOWER LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH HARD TO PIN- POINT IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS. THERE COULD BE A LULL DURING SATURDAY AS THE GFS SUGGESTS A SLUG OF LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. AFTERWARDS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REBOUND FOR SUNDAY WILL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV/MET NUMBERS FOR THE HIGHS EACH DAY...WHICH NEAR OR JUST BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION THE LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD TROUGH AT 500MB SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN DURING MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER MONDAY...GETTING BACK ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOME DRYING BY MID- WEEK. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...NO PCPN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS. THE 5H VORT OVER EASTERN GA...IS PROGGED TO MOVE SE AND PASS SOUTH OF ALL ILM TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. WITH A RELAXED SFC PG EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN CALM WINDS NEARLY EVERYWHERE...AND EARLIER CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS HAVING THINNED OUT...EXPECT MVFR FOG AT ALL LOCATIONS. A FEW TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ONES HAVING RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY...MAY OBSERVE IFR FOG. BY MID-MORNING DAYTIME FRI...WILL SEE IMPROVEMENTS TO VSBY TO P6SM WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS MYR/CRE TERMINALS WHERE HAZE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AND REDUCED VSBY TO 4SM TO 6SM THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS USUALLY OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WHERE THE SFC PG REMAINS RELAXED AHEAD OF IT WITH NO BIG-TIME MIXING FROM ALOFT. VARIOUS MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE REMAIN A BIT HESITANT ON WHETHER CONVECTION WILL OCCUR EITHER ALONG OR POSSIBLY AFTER THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL INCLUDE CONVECTION VCNTY FOR THE INLAND TERMINALS WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY IS PROGGED...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SEA BREEZE AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COOL FRONT IN ORDER TO UPGRADE VCSH TO VCTS ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE FRONTS PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL BE SUBTLE WITH A CHANGE IN THE WIND DIRECTIONS FROM SW-NW TO NE-E OCCURRING FROM AFTER DAYBREAK FRI THRU MID EVENING FRIDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR...IN MORNING FOG...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPECIFICALLY SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY TIME FRAME. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 615 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP WINDS TURN TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WHILE REMAINING LIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING N AND NE. A SLACK GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THIS EVENT. EXPECT SEAS OF AROUND 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE FAR OFFSHORE WILL SUPPORT A NORTHEASTERLY FETCH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS...TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS WILL AROUND 3 FT...TO 3-4 FT AT TIMES BY SATURDAY EVENING AWAY FROM THE COAST. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THE WIND WILL VEER TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION LATER IN THE DAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY MORNING WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN LATE TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SRP NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...DCH MARINE...REK/SRP

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