Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280311 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1111 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaching from the west will stall through mid- week before moving across the area Thursday into Friday. Dry high pressure will build into the area by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 11 PM Tuesday...Forecast area is now convection free and although latest guidance shows small chances for renewed activity do not feel comfortable completely ruling it out for the overnight period given storms passing to the north and west of us. NC counties will see the best chances for renewed convection after midnight, although confidence not especially high. Relevant portion of previous discussion from this afternoon follows: Expect areal extent of convection to diminish during the evening. Have trended POPs a little lower along the coast, while have increased them a notch across the Pee Dee and Lumberton areas. A blend of MAV/MET numbers looks reasonable for overnight low temperatures in the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...A large upper low will continue to evolve across the Midwest and Ohio valley Wednesday through Thursday as it slowly meanders toward the south-southeast. This feature will gradually push a cold front across the area late Thursday. Given how amplified the pattern is aloft would not be surprised if the frontal passage is delayed a little further. Thus the forecast area will remain in the warmer sector through most of the short term period and the chance for showers and thunderstorms will persist as well. An impulse is shown to wrap around the upper low, likely passing to our northwest during Thursday. SPC continues to highlight central NC with a Marginal Risk of severe tstms. Part of this risk area includes as portion of the Lumberton area and northern parts of the Pee Dee. The highest precipitable water values remain off the coast through Thursday with much lower values beginning to filter in from the west Thursday night. As mentioned earlier, the timing is suspect given the orientation of the front to the flow aloft. A blend of MAV/MET numbers appears reasonable each day and night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Deep large cutoff low over the Ohio Valley on Friday will lift slowly north toward the Great Lakes over the weekend before heading east and weakening over the northeast states. At the same time, a broad ridge will persists across the Atlantic reaching westward toward the southeast coast. The upper low will drive a front east, and it should be aligned along or just off the southeast coast on Fri. Although the sfc winds should shift around to the west and become light and variable, the deep S-SW flow aloft will keep front stalled with a deep southerly flow above. The moisture profiles and sounding date show plenty of dry air wrapping around the potent mid to upper low keeping it very dry in the mid levels Friday into the weekend. The lingering boundary should remain near or just east of the area, but the deep moisture, clouds and convection should stay east and off shore until later in the weekend, at which time the upper low will lift far enough off to the north. This may draw some of the moisture back toward the coast for early next week, but tough to say if it will make it back into forecast area before getting pushed away as high pressure builds down from the north. The next big variable is a tropical system which models show heading north from the Caribbean, possibly reaching as far west as Cuba before making the turn north. This may come into play in the forecast heading into end of the forecast period or the middle of next week. The dry air wrapping around the upper low should produce drier weather for the weekend, but the location of the actual sfc boundary will determine if relatively cooler, lower dewpoint air makes it in for Fri or the weekend. For now, will show lower dewpoint air advecting in from the west on Friday and possibly remaining through at least Saturday with overnight lows dropping down toward 60 and even below 60 inland Fri night and possible Sat night. Afternoon highs should still be up around 80 in plenty of late September sunshine through much of the period. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 00Z...Potential for MVFR/IFR overnight due to fog development, along with any heavy downpours on Wednesday. Otherwise expect VFR with VCSH/VCTS through the period. Latest radar imagery depicts light showers moving across portions of the forecast area, which may affect KLBT/KILM over the next few hours. Otherwise, fairly quiet conditions are expected for the rest of tonight with light winds. Late overnight into the early morning hours, latest guidance and trends continue to suggest fog development across the area, which may create periods of MVFR/IFR. After daybreak, VFR will prevail with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. South-southeast winds 5 to 10 kts expected on Wednesday. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Scattered SHRA/TSRA through Thursday. A cold frontal passage late Wednesday into Thursday. Primarily VFR expected Friday through Sunday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 11 PM Tuesday...latest obs continue to show very light NE winds over the waters with seas around 3 ft and no convection. This is in accordance with the present forecast. No changes planned with the latest update. Previous discussion from this afternoon follows: Weak area of low pressure will quickly move by the adjacent waters later this afternoon and evening before departing to the northeast. The resulting wind field will be variable at 10 knots or less. Seas will be 3 ft or less tonight. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...The flow will eventually become southeasterly during Wednesday in response to a slow moving cold front approaching from the west. Additional veering to the southwest with an increase in speed is expected by Thursday evening just ahead of the cold front. Seas will be 3 ft or less Wednesday through Thursday morning, then possibly 3-4 ft by Thursday evening. LONG TERM/FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...A cold front will make its way east through the Carolinas and into the local waters on Friday, causing winds to shift from SW at 5-10 kts early, to NW at 5-10 kts late. The sfc pressure pattern will remain weak into the weekend as mid to upper low dominates the weather. As the upper low lifts north by the end of the weekend, the boundary should be drawn back west shifting winds back around. Overall, the winds may become quite variable, remaining light through the weekend. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft through the weekend with a longer period, up to 13 second, SE swell mixing in Sat night into early Sun from a developing tropical system well out in the Atlantic waters. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...REK/SRP SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MJC MARINE...REK/RGZ/SRP

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