Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 171901 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 301 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High heat and humidity will continue across the area into Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage over the weekend ahead of a weak cold front, which will likely stall near the area. Another cold front will push through the area next week, with unsettled weather expected to continue.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Thursday...Latest radar imagery is showing quite the coverage of convection across the area this afternoon, much more widespread than was seen yesterday. Returns are showing plenty of lingering boundaries, which along with the weak piedmont trough and seabreeze, have been aiding in the development thus far today. Slower storm motion and PW values over 2 inches will continue to support localized heavy rainfall, and the potential for minor flooding. Expect convection to dissipate into the overnight hours, with low temperatures dipping into the mid 70`s. Do not anticipate much in the way of fog develop or low cigs as lingering mid to high level clouds are expected into the morning hours. On Friday, weak riding aloft will set up across the area ahead of an approaching weak cold front which is expected to affect the area this weekend. With high temperatures in the lower 90`s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70`s, anticipate heat indices in the 100`s once again. At this time, do not expect all areas to reach Heat Advisory criteria, but it more than likely will be warranted for portions of the area. Will mention the potential for typical summertime isolated to scattered convection in the afternoon hours with diurnal heating, lingering boundaries and available low level moisture.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Thursday...Longwave trough digging across the OH VLY will drop SE into Saturday night, pushing a surface cold front into the area. Ahead of this feature, deep SW flow advects tremendous moisture in the form of PWATs over 2.25 inches Saturday, which should serve as fuel for convection along the front, especially Saturday aftn/eve where it merges with the sea breeze. This is in response to continued very warm and unstable air, with MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg likely as highs rise into the low 90s and dewpoints remain at least the mid 70s, if not near 80 in some places. Most of this convection should wane with loss of heating, but should refocus offshore as the front stalls in the vicinity. Temps Saturday night will be cooler than we have seen in many days as some dry advection works into the column, pushing mins into the mid 70s, down from near 80 Friday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Thursday...Stalled front really losing its identity to our west on Sunday while light zonal mid level flow helps to confine deepest moisture and thus best rain chances along the coast. This front appears to wash out completely by Monday leaving behind some weak troughiness on Monday. This doesn`t elucidate much regarding eclipse view especially along the coast since in such a setup cumulus development should be fairly widespread and vertically vigorous. Tuesday should represent the lowest rainfall chances during the period with a pinned seabreeze, zonal flow aloft, and a piedmont trough to our west. Energetic northwest flow and the next cold front arrive on Wednesday. This front may have a better chance than the early week boundary in clearing the area at least in part on Thursday as there is a stronger upper trough and higher surface pressures driving its progress.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 18Z...Potential for periods of MVFR in any heavy downpours and stronger storms this afternoon and evening. Otherwise expect VFR. Latest radar imagery depicts scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon, as heavy downpours are already creating reduced visibilities at KILM. Expect trend to continue throughout the rest of today as VCTS prevails in going forecast, with TEMPO groups to account for scattered convection. Into tonight, expect convection to dissipate, giving way to VFR through into Friday morning, with passing mid level clouds. Winds overnight will be light and variable. Extended Outlook...Potential for MVFR/IFR through Friday as unsettled weather continues, with chances increasing into the weekend with a passing cold front. Would not entirely rule out patchy stratus/fog towards the morning hours each day. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Southwest winds around 10 kts this evening into the overnight hours will increase to 10 to 15 kts Friday afternoon ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Seas of 2 ft are expected through the period, with 3 fters gradually building in across the outer waters. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Cold front approaching from the NW will stall just inland from the coast Saturday. This leaves SW flow across the waters, with wind speeds around 15 kts through the period. These winds will help drive a 3-4 ft/5sec SW wind wave atop the persistent 8-9 sec SE swell, and seas will be 2-4 ft across all waters. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Very light southwesterly flow Sunday and Monday with a cold front decaying into a weak surface trough. Seas will be running their fairly `normal` 2-3 and occasionally 4 ft. The trough may wash out for a time Monday night for some light and variable winds but it reforms Tuesday for a return of south to southwesterly flow, likely capped at 10kt.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Heat Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-053>056. NC...Heat Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...SGL SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL

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