Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 291025 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 627 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Rain will stay in the area through Tuesday until the tropical system makes its slow departure. Moisture will hang around for most of the week so while sunshine should return in part there will still be a scattering of storms each day. A cold front will approach next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the South Carolina coast. Weak Tropical Storm Bonnie was located about 190 miles south of Myrtle Beach and as of the last report was moving slowly to the north. As was the case last night...all of the convection was located NW and N of the actual center. There is virtually no cold cloud tops/significant convection in the vicinity of the center. This is indicative of a sheared environment. Also, dry air to the south of the center, across FL and coastal GA was getting advected northward and into the system. These conditions should continue to hinder any strengthening. Bonnie is expected to be very near the coast near CHS late this morning and early this afternoon. Steering flow remains weak, but Bonnie is expected to be guided northward through tonight as upstream upper level trough moves toward the coast and western Atlantic ridge builds near Bermuda. This may result in Bonnie hugging the upper South Carolina coast. Regardless of the exact track and lack of organization, the expected weather conditions will be the same. High precipitable water values, around 2 inches in deep east to southeast flow will necessitate high pops. The potential for bouts of heavy rain in waves of showers and a few thunderstorms streaming in from off the Atlantic. This may cause localized ponding. ENE to E winds will generally become ESE or SE today. Wind speeds will be 10 to 15 mph...but up to 15 to 25 mph across the South Santee River area and as far north as the southern Grand Strand. Winds will be strongest later this afternoon and into the eve hours. A weak tornado can not be ruled out, mainly early today when the low- level flow will exhibit the greatest veering with height. .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...Bonnie may be a tropical depression before the start of the period. The system or its remnants will be in the area through the period as it moves slowly up along the Carolina coast. The current forecast track has it lifting north of the Cape Fear area Tue night. This will keep the weather unsettled, but drier air and subsidence will eventually reach the area. Thus, would expect a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms throughout Mon with coverage perhaps shrinking inland on Tue, but still high along the coast. We are still forecasting total rainfall amounts in the 2 to 3 inch range although higher amounts will be possible. Thick cloud cover Mon will be shrinking from W to E Tue and Tue night and this will result in slightly warmer temps inland on Tue. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 AM Sunday... The moisture directly associated with Bonnie should be out of the picture by Wednesday. Sufficient moisture will remain for scattered showers and storms however especially if some upper troughiness remains behind. Rain chances should arguably wind up just a bit higher over northern zones. No more mid level trough on Thursday but a poorly defined surface pressure pattern will remain. The sea breeze and outflow boundaries should still manage to produce appreciable coverage of mainly diurnal storms. The former should make good progress inland. Rain chances then rise a bit Friday and maybe moreso Saturday as the next upper trough and surface cold front approach from the north and west. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 12Z...Difficult to nail down the TAFs today as ceilings/visibilities will be all over the place, predominately MVFR. Low pressure will continue to linger to our south, giving us a nice plume of tropical moisture throughout the day. Water vapor indicates the potential for us getting dry slotted, however any solar insolation will only help to fuel convection. Look for predominately easterly flow, with somewhat of a southeasterly component this afternoon. Extended Outlook...Unsettled weather through Thursday with possible SHRA/isolated TSRA and TEMPO MVFR/IFR conditions.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...A tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southern waters and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the northern waters. The strongest winds are expected this afternoon and this eve as Bonnie slowly lifts northward along the coast. Wind speeds across the southern waters should peak in the 20 to 25 kt range...perhaps up to 30 kt as stronger winds to our south creep north. Winds across the northern waters will be 15 to around 20 kt. The wind direction will be ESE to SE. The wind direction will veer to the SSE and S tonight. Seas will be mainly 5 to 7 ft. A brief waterspout or two can not be ruled out today. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...Bonnie may be a tropical depression by the start of the period. The depression or its remnants will slowly lift north along the upper South Carolina coast and the southeast North Carolina coast...perhaps lifting north of the Cape Fear waters Tue night. This will keep showers and thunderstorms across the waters for much of the period. South winds will hold across the waters Mon and Mon night. As what is left of Bonnie lifts slowly away from the area Tue and Tue night...winds should come around to a more NW or N direction. Seas will be 4 to 5 ft Mon, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft by Tue and then 2 to 3 ft Tue night. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 AM Sunday... Decreasing wind and seas through the period as tropical system moves off to the north and east. Wednesday`s wind direction forecast may need some refining as there is still guidance that stalls the system very near the area until then. Not so by Thursday at which time the system`s exit will bring a west wind that will then back to southerly as west Atlantic high pressure takes hold. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ053>056. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for SCZ054-056. NC...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NCZ106-108-110. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...43

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