Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 140808 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 300 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE TOMORROW AS IT GETS OVERRUN WITH MOISTURE. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN IS CONTINUING A SURGE OF VERY COLD AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP FURTHER EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES CLOSER OVERHEAD...LIMITING MIXING AND IMPROVING RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTIVENESS. STILL EXPECTING LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS BY DAYBREAK. FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE WANE...A VERY COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BRING US TEMPERATURES VERY WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS IS FROM 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING UPON LOCATION. THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH AMPLE SUN...BUT SATELLITE LOOPS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING CIRRUS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. A CHANGE IS IN THE CARDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THIS PERIOD AS A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN OFF THE OCEAN. MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BRING STRATUS ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FROZEN PRECIPITATION HERE. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY WELL INLAND. INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL THICKEN CLOUDS AND BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...MAINLY WEST OF I-95 AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF ANY ADVISORY PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WEAK RETURN FLOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE AN ATYPICAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH OUR MINIMUM HAPPENING RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING FROM THERE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOT SO WILLING TO BE ERODED AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN FACT THERE EXISTS UP TO A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS INLAND FOR MONDAY. A VAST MAJORITY OF TIME WHEN THIS IS THE CASE THE COLDER GUIDANCE ENDS UP BEING CORRECT. AS SUCH THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TOWARDS THE COOLER NUMBERS. GIVEN THE THREAT FOR PRECIP TO MANIFEST AS FREEZING RAIN OVER DEEP INTERIOR COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING THESE DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE CRITICAL. HAVING SAID THAT, THE WINDOW DURING WHICH ZR IS POSSIBLE REMAINS ONE OF LOW POPS AND MINIMAL QPF SINCE FOR THE SAME REASON THE HIGH IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT IT SHOULD ALSO BE SLOW TO SATURATE. A MODEL QPF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF IS THAT THE LATTER LIKES A WETTER COAST MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WELL-FORMED SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THAT MOST OF MONDAY`S FORCING IS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY DRY ABOVE 800 (OR IN SOME CASES 900) MB THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. THE WEDGE FINALLY DOES BREAK MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE MONDAY NIGHT, IN SOME PLACES DRAMATICALLY (LOW 60S BY MORNING?). THE LATTER HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT ALSO REPRESENTS WHEN THE APPROACHING SYSTEMS MID LEVEL ASCENT FORCEFULLY KICKS IN. AT THIS TIME EXPECT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE REGION. COULD NOT PINPOINT HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL SINCE HEIGHT FALLS AND PVA STRONGEST INLAND BUT COASTAL LOCATIONS ESP SC MAY SEE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOP, WHICH WILL THEN MOVE INTO CAPE FEAR TUESDAY MORNING. THE ENTIRE MOISTURE PLUME IS SHUNTED DECIDEDLY OFF THE COAST BY 18Z TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RELAXES. SPEAKING OF, IT IS THIS STRONG LLJ THAT WILL YIELD A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG THE COAST A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO AND FOLLOWING SUNRISE. SPC CONTINUES TO CAP THIS RISK AT MARGINAL. TUESDAY NIGHTS COLD ADVECTION LOOKS PRETTY LAZY AND SO THOUGH NOT AS MILD AS MONDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... THE LONG TERM WILL OFFER UP RAIN-FREE WEATHER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE SEASONABLE WITH BROAD, LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHINESS ONLY DRIVING A WEAK HIGH INTO THE MS VALLEY. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY OFF THE EAST COAST DRIVING A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH INTO SAME FOR A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH PRESSURE GROWS AND STRENGTHENS UP AND DOWN THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A WARMUP. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL VEER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...PUTTING AN END TO THE PRESENT VIGOROUS COLD SURGE. PRESENT N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL BECOME NE LATER THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARDS...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BE HOME TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLELING THE COAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE TRYING AND FAILING TO ADVANCE INLAND INTO WHAT REMAINS OF THE ARCTIC WEDGE. JUST EAST OF THE FRONT A MODERATELY STRONG GRADIENT AND LONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT MAY YIELD A DECREASE IN WINDS THE SEAS WILL BE GROWING TO ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WEDGE DETERIORATES AND THE BOUNDARY MOVES ASHORE THESE GRADIENT WINDS WILL ENTER THE MARINE ZONES WITH GUSTO. A LATE NIGHT APPROACH OF A STRONGLY FORCED COLD FRONT WILL VEER THE WINDS AND FURTHER TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE ABSENCE OF STABILITY ARGUMENTS. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT A VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE MOVING OVER THE MUCH COOLER SSTS VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE COMPROMISED. CURRENT FORECAST CONFINES A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO JUST A SMALL PART OF THE OUTER REACHES OF NC WATERS. TUESDAY MIDDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BRING AN ABRUPT TURN TO THE WEST AND A MARKED DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS LIKELY NEEDING TIL TUESDAY NIGHT TO SETTLE BELOW THRESHOLDS. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES UP AND DOWN THE MS VALLEY WITH NO STRONG GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE. LIGHT WIND AND DIMINISHING SWELL ENERGY LEADS TO ABATING SEAS. THE HIGH GROWS, STRENGTHENS, AND MOVES EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THE GRADIENT SHOULD ACTUALLY SLACKEN ESP LATE IN THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS NEARS. SEAS DROP IN HEIGHT BY ABOUT A FOOT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WILL ISSUE YET ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER...CENTERED AROUND HIGH TIDE AT 2:27 PM EST. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TIL 4 PM FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL

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