Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KILM 232352
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
652 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017
Warm air will prevail across the Carolinas through Saturday.
A cold front approaching from the west will move offshore late
Saturday. Cooler and drier air will build in Saturday night
through Monday. Shower chances will increase mid week as a cold
front approaches from the west.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...An isolated coastal shower is possible
through early evening along the NNW periphery of a low pressure
system moving northward out of the Bahama chain. The eastward
progressing component of the system will pull low-end shower
chances away from the NE SC/SE NC coasts overnight. Complete
clearing however may not transpire as low-level marine flow
slips beneath an inversion. Minimum temperatures by daybreak
Friday should settle to 53-56 inland, and 57-60 near the sea.
Partial clearing and a damp low-level moisture profile will
lend to patchy fog pockets overnight.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...Morning clouds will break Friday and in
tandem with an upper ridge axis over the region, near record
temperatures may be reached or exceeded. Record highs for
tomorrow include CRE-78 in 1996, ILM-81 in 1982, FLO-82 in 1962,
LBT-77 in 2016. Afternoon heat-induced cumulus expected Friday.
Another warm one Saturday in a pre-frontal sector and breezier.
Maximums may be similar to Friday, to a few degrees cooler near
the coast and well inland. The moisture profiles are quite dry
Saturday and an isolated shower may even be too hopeful with
FROPA in the mid afternoon to very early evening west to east.
Mammoth temperature differences from Saturday afternoon to
Sunday morning, drops of 35-40 degrees.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...Cold advection weakens on Sun but the colder
air will be in place and temperatures will drop near to slightly
below climo, despite plenty of sun and deep westerly flow aloft.
Surface high moves off the coast later in the day with return flow
developing then increasing for Mon as 5h trough to the west starts
to amplify. Southern stream shortwave will emerge from the southwest
this weekend but its evolution remains the subject of much debate
between the medium range guidance. It appears likely that the wave
will be deamplifying as it heads east, lifting northwest of the area
Mon night. The associated surface low will drag a boundary into the
region but lack of strong mid level trough/push leaves the surface
boundary hanging. Latest GFS has it stalled in the area with a
period of unsettled weather Mon night through Wed night (albeit with
temps above to well above climo). The ECMWF depicts a stronger 5h
ridge over the southern Gulf of Mexico which expands north Wed
leading to a slightly warmer and drier forecast compared to the GFS.
Wed night into Thu medium range guidance converges on a cold front
pushing across the area, pushed east by longwave 5h trough. Front
would be accompanied by showers and likely some thunder with cold
advection following the front dropping temps back near climo as the
period ends. Confidence for much of the period is low due in large
part to the problems guidance tends to have with split flow.
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 23Z...Latest satellite loop showing some clearing along
the coast from KCRE up to KILM with a mid deck of bkn clouds
across KMYR as well as over KFLO. High pressure across inland
VA/NC/SC with a weak coastal trough off the NC/SC coast. issue
for tonight will be the light onshore flow across the region
bringing in some low level moisture and the chance of fog across
the terminals. Models differ on the extent of the cloud cover
which will impact our fog potential. Previous tafs had
introduced some IFR over inland zones where cloud cover may be
hard- pressed to materialize, but also extended to tempo group
for KMYR and KCRE. Otherwise VFR through the remainder of the
evening as well as soon after sunrise friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...Advisory posted tonight mainly for seas
as a SE swell begins to propagate to shore, courtesy of a low
pressure system moving north out of the Bahamas. Latest wave
guidance shows SE waves at 7 feet every 9 seconds overnight at
Frying Pan Shoals through much of Friday. An under-lying E
swell of 1-2 feet will boost significant wave heights in the
4-8 foot range from outer to inner waters. A few marine showers
will dot the waters tonight but should remain light with no
TSTMS or marine fog expected.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...Advisory for seas much of Friday as a SE
swell plays out. NE 5-15 knot winds to accompany the formidable
swell, will become light and variable Friday night. As a front
approaches Saturday SW winds 10-20 knots to prevail before a
shift to the NW-N Saturday evening. An advisory or exercise
caution statement is possible just before and then after the
frontal passage. Very little precipitation expected so no
restrictions to visibility expected Saturday or in the night,
but the winds may be challenging and chop will run moderate to
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...Offshore flow will weaken Sun as cold
advection shuts off and gradient weakens due to approach of the
center of the surface high. Northerly flow becomes light and
variable Sun night, becoming southerly Mon morning as the high
pushes off the coast. South to southwest flow increases to 10 to
15 kt Mon into Tue as gradient becomes a little more defined.
Seas 2 to 4 ft Sun drop to 2 to 3 ft Sun night and Mon before
the slight increase in southwest flow later Mon and Tue pushes
seas back up to 2 to 4 ft.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ254-256.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252.