Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 311748 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1248 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A DRYING TREND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISING OUT OF THE GULF MAY BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIALLY A DRYING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1248 PM SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE LAST DAY OF JANUARY 2015 WILL END ON A COOL AND BRIGHT NOTE AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CHECK IN ROUGHLY AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR VERY LATE JANUARY. TYPICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MAX READINGS OCCURRING BETWEEN 3 PM AND 4 PM. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS APPEARS LIKELY BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS BUT IMPACTS ON THE RISES OF TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO REMAIN MINIMAL. SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN WIND-SPEEDS WILL EVENTUATE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ORIENTED NEARLY OVERHEAD OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROMPT A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND CHARACTER BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN. AS THE LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EDGES EASTWARD TO SEA...A WEAK RETURN WIND FLOW WILL COMMENCE...ALLOWING SSE-SW WINDS 6 MPH OR LESS TO TREND TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER ON THE UPTICK TONIGHT WILL FLATTEN OUR TEMPERATURE DROPS OVERNIGHT...WHERE READINGS COULD LEVEL OFF AFTER 6Z/1AM IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AS H6-H5 CLOUDS THICKEN UP.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING DEPLETED A BIT AS IT MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE SHOULD GET ONE AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED RAIN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC MONDAY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST POPS RESIDE. THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS MONDAY MORNING. INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MIGRATING ACROSS THE AREA FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50-60 KNOTS AT 925-850MB. OBVIOUSLY INSTABILITY WILL BE ALMOST NON EXISTENT AT THIS TIME AND THE LACK OF ANYTHING MODESTLY ORGANIZED WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW. THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST COASTAL HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TO DO THE SAME AREA WIDE FOR LOWS TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS REMAINS THE WET SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE DRIER ONE. THE DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GETS KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT PHASES SOMEWHAT AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE THE PHASING OR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE ECMWF AND COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE WALKED BACK POPS ESPECIALLY EARLY...WEDNESDAY. I DECREASED VALUES FOR THURSDAY AS WELL WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT LEAST BASED ON THE ECMWF BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF THE GFS SUITE OF PRODUCTS VERIFY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS COOL ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IF THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY GRADUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN OPACITY AS TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BKN/OVC COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AOB 8 KTS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE. POSSIBLE RAIN WED. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1248 PM SATURDAY...SEAS PRIMARILY 2-4 FEET TODAY AND 4.5 FT ALONG THE EXTREME OUTER RIBBON OF THE 0-20 NM CORRIDOR. SEA SPECTRUM A MIX OF NORTH TO SOUTH CHOP IN 3/4 SECONDS WAVE PERIODS AND E WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS TO ABATE THIS AFTN WITH LIGHT SSE-SSW WINDS TONIGHT 10 KT OR LESS AS SEA HEIGHTS DAMPEN ALL THE WHILE. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY WHILE TURNING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO A HEALTHY 15-20 BY DAYS END. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER...INTO A RANGE OF 25-30 KNOTS. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHILE A BRIEF GALE WARNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OBVIOUSLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SCENARIO NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE OUT ON THE WATER. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS WITH 2-3 FEET SUNDAY INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AM. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IN SOME FORM DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT IT WEAK THROUGHOUT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS WITH THE INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET TUESDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.