Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 231518 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1000 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper low over the area today, will move northeast to off the DELMARVA Coast early Tuesday, and off Cape Cod by Tuesday evening. High pressure from the south will ridge across the area Tuesday thru Wednesday with temperatures rebounding above normal. A cold front will push across early Thursday followed by cool high pressure late in the week, becoming even colder during this weekend with daily temperatures dropping to below normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 10 AM Monday...Batch of showers and light rain over NE SC will rotate NE-N over the forecast area today. With diurnal heating and exceptional lapse rates, we expect embedded showers to emerge within this cluster of activity. Sufficient moisture and updraft strength could spark a cloud to ground lightning clap and possibly small pieces of hail. No other significant hazards though and the SPC maintains a general thunder category across our area today. A few showers will linger over SE NC into evening with a gradual wind-down of coverage into pre-dawn of Tuesday. The evaporative cooling associated with the showers will bring temperatures down in the afternoon over SE NC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Monday...The ILM CWA will remain under cyclonic flow during Tue associated with the Stacked Low moving from off the DELMARVA Coast Tue morning to Cape Cod by Tue evening. Models are in decent agreement late Tue thru Wed with a low amplitude mid level and sfc ridging extending north across the FA from Florida and the Bahamas. The atm column dries out nicely by the start of this period and continues into Wed evening. Thus, sky conditions will be conducive to Mostly Sunny and clear nights. The exception will be for late Wed night when a cold front approaches from the west. Have included an increase in clouds with low chance POPs for light showers during the pre-dawn hrs, mainly west of the I-95 corridor. For temps, stayed with a Mos Guidance Consensus. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Previous forecast used... As of 3 PM Sunday...Upper level ridge axis moves offshore on Wednesday yielding deep layer SW to WSW flow. Expecting a mostly sunny and unseasonably warm afternoon. Cold front comes through late Wednesday night driven by very low amplitude and confluent upper system keeping rain chances minimal. Cold air advection Thursday is weak initially allowing for highs in the low to mid 60s early before temperatures possibly start a non- diurnal decline. The remainder of the period will bring cool and dry advection. The southern branch of the upper jet splits off and gets hung up as a positively tilted trough over the SWrn U.S. The northern branch will end up a broad and positively tilted trough over the Eastern U.S. Daytime highs will be stuck below climatology in the cold advection regime whereas breezy well-mixed nights will be seasonably cool. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 12Z...Deep moisture has exited, however the strong upper low still needs to come through this afternoon. There will be decent solar insolation, however given the sun angle, do not expect too much CAPE this afternoon, but enough to kick off some fairly vigorous showers around max heating. Given the cold air aloft, expect gusty winds with the showers. Most of the activity will end by late afternoon with VFR conditions expected tonight. Extended outlook...Expect mainly VFR. A dry CFP slated for early Thu. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 10 AM Monday...SCA for all waters thru Tue afternoon. Elevated winds and seas expected this period. Exception is when the center of the stacked low moves across the area during today. The sfc pg will relax enough for SW winds to temporarily drop below SCA thresholds. By late this aftn and early this evening, the stacked low will finally lift NE of the area allowing the passage of a sfc cold front. The sfc pg will re- tighten and result in WNW to NW winds increasing back to SCA thresholds, and continuing into the early Tue morning hrs. Significant seas will continue elevated and be dominated by wind driven waves at 4 to 7 second periods. Seas initially at 5 to 9 ft may temporary drop a few ft later today but then re- stabilize in the 4 to 8 ft range tonight as gusty WNW to NW winds take over. Scattered showers to occur later today. SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 415 AM Monday...Cyclonic flow to continue thru Tue as the stacked low lifts further NE reaching Cape Cod by sunset Tue, much further away from the ILM Waters. Looking at a sfc pressure pattern and relaxing sfc pg with diminishing NW to W winds likely below SCA levels by or during the aftn. Weak ridging to extend northward from Florida and the Bahamas Tue night thru Wed, resulting in winds backing to the W to SW around 15 kt. Wed night, an approaching cold front from the west will result in the sfc pg tightening and SW winds back up to 15 to 20 kt. Significant seas will peak at the start of this period. An offshore wind trajectory Tue into Tue night will help subside the seas except for the waters from Cape Fear to Little River Inlet where a Westerly wind direction will have a longer fetch to produce slightly hier seas than surrounding zones. Seas will subside to 2 to 4 ft Tue night and hold in that general range thru Wed. Seas will begin to build Wed night ahead of an approaching cold front with increasing SW wind driven waves. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Previous forecast used... As of 3 PM Sunday...Coast-parallel southwesterly flow on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Though the winds will increase to the 15 to 20kt range any headline or advisory-worthy seas will remain outside of the 20nm forecast zone. With the approach of the boundary Wed night into Thursday we may add some gustiness and possibly introduce some 5 ft waves. A sharp late morning veer to NW Thursday will give way to abating wind speeds. Wave faces will steepen and a cautionary headline may be appropriate for a narrow span of time. A broad and weakening band of NW flow will be found across the eastern U.S on Friday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...8 NEAR TERM...8 SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL MARINE...DCH/8 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.