Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 230042 AAA AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Wilmington NC 842 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonable temperatures today will yield to hotter weather over the weekend. The heat wave will last into the early or middle part of next week all while rain chances remain minimal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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As of 840 PM Friday...Just a quick public update to shift the highest anticipated coverage of storms to just east of Bennettsville across Robeson county. Storms are actually quite healthy with some impressive cores aloft in recent radar cross- sections near Red Springs in northern Robeson county. Activity should die down over the next couple of hours as it slides south- southeast at around 15 mph. Discussion from 730 PM follows... Convection diving southward from the Southern Pines to Uwharrie Mountains area is moving along a corridor of relative maximum instability and low LFC heights. 18z GFS suggests a mid-level disturbance near or just above the 700 mb level is involved as well. Since there is some synoptic support this cluster of storms may survive for at least an hour or two after sunset. I have expanded the region of slight chance (20%) pops southward through Marion and Florence, and raised pops as high as 60 percent across the northern third of Marlboro County between 8-9 pm. The latest HRRR did not have a particularly good initialization and I am not completely willing to trust its output on the 21z run. Otherwise few changes have been made to the overnight forecast. Discussion from 300 PM follows... Warm and mostly sunny conditions persist this aftn as ridging from the midwest slowly expands towards the Carolinas. While the very hot temperatures across the midwest are on the doorstep and will encroach upon this area during the weekend, today has been actually a nice respite with highs around 90 and dew points which dropped below 70 at times. This increasing ridge is also functioning as a convective lid to most updrafts, which is clearly evident by the shallow cu on visible imagery. A few showers have developed north of the area, likely along a weak mid-level impulse aided by some differential heating, and these will try to advect southward towards the far NW counties. The HRRR wants to bring a few storms into the CWA, but it has been running far too "hot" with its convective initiation today, and very dry mid-level air should preclude much of this making the trip south. However, have left an hour of two of SCHC for Darlington, Marlboro, and Robeson counties this evening before convection wanes with loss of heating. Additionally, an an isolated shower or tstm is possible along the sea breeze through this evening, but coverage will remain quite isolated. The soundings are very dry in the mid- levels however, making even lightning difficult since the charge separation zone is so far into the dry air, but have left TRW- as the primary Wx type as there are a few lightning strikes upstream. After nightfall, any diurnal cu will wane and a warm and mostly clear night is forecast. Have forecast mins a degree above a MAV/MET blend based off previous verification, and the presence of a 20-25 kts LLJ keeping mins elevated. Have lows forecast to be 72-75, warmest at the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Friday...Hot with increasing humidity forecast for the weekend as this hot July continues. Massive ridge across the central part of the country will expand to become a broad feature across nearly the entire southern tier of the CONUS. As this occurs, a weak closed mid-level low off the SC coast will be suppressed to the SW, driven by increasing heights to its north. This keeps this feature weak and away from the Carolinas, moving across Florida Sunday night. No surface reflection is progged with this impulse, but as it moves overhead Florida late, it will cause a better SE moisture tap and increasing clouds are forecast Sunday night. The big story this wknd is a return to uncomfortable and dangerous heat as the mid-level dome of high pressure expands overhead. This occurs in conjunction with persistent Bermuda ridging, and 1000- 500mb thicknesses approach 580dm by Sunday. Developing SW flow this wknd will pump in additional moisture, and this means humidity will be on the rise at the same time temperatures climb back well into the 90s. While isolated convection is possible each aftn during peak heating, widespread tstms are not forecast thanks to warm and relative dry air aloft, and will carry only SCHC along the sea breeze and piedmont troughs, highest Sunday. Very little airmass change is forecast Sat to Sun, so highs both days will be in the mid 90s, slightly warmer Sunday, and a bit cooler at the coast each day, with lows in the mid to upr 70s. The combination of these hot temps and high dew points will create heat index values just below 105 (heat advisory criteria) on Saturday, but a heat advisory will likely be needed on Sunday and will mention in the HWO. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM Friday...The extended period as would be expected, offers little change in the summertime pattern. The eastern Carolinas will be in between a subtle northwest flow aloft and at times ridging building in from the central Atlantic. Any synoptic forcing mechanisms are relegated to the Piedmont trough with the more local feature being the seabreeze. Precipitable water values remain somewhat unimpressive with perhaps an increase later next week. This warrants no more than either slight or low chance pops for any period. 850mb temperatures remain pegged right around 20 degrees C so surface readings should be a few degrees above normals for both daytime highs and overnight lows. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 00Z...VFR this evening at all terminals. Showers and thunderstorms were moving S towards KLBT early this evening. Attm activity is expected to dissipate before reaching the terminal, but will indicate VCSH at KLBT just in case a rogue shower makes it to the terminal. Convection should dissipate with loss of heating. Confidence is high for VFR overnight. The impulse causing the convection this evening is forecast to continue to move to the SE. A few models indicate showers re-developing overnight, but confidence is low. Although winds will be light, the chance for fog development should be low due to 20kt boundary layer winds. By sunrise a few showers will be possible along the coast but confidence is moderate to high VFR will continue. Winds will be WSW, but winds will shift to the SSW-SW by afternoon. Any afternoon convection will be isolated. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Brief periods of MVFR/IFR from isolated afternoon convection Sunday through Wednesday. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 730 PM Friday...No significant changes to the forecast with this early evening update. Discussion from 300 PM follows... Weak Bermuda high pressure will exert its influence through tonight, but a weak gradient will persist. Winds will gradually veer to the SW tonight, with speeds rising to around 10 kts. Seas will be formed almost exclusively through a 3ft/9sec SE swell, producing wave heights of 2-3 ft. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Friday...Bermuda high pressure will be the dominant feature this weekend as it expands again into the Carolinas. This produces SW winds around 10 kts Saturday, increasing to up to 15 kts Sunday thanks to a sharper piedmont trough. Seas will be formed through an amplifying SW wind wave and a persistent SE swell, producing wave heights of of 2-3 ft Saturday, and more widespread 3 ft on Sunday. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM Friday...South to southwest winds of 10-15 knots will continue across all waters through the period. There is a little hint of higher winds overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning with the low level jet and this is reflected in the forecast. Significant seas will be mostly in a range of 2-3 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...TRA/JDW SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MRR MARINE...

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