Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280221 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 920 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE CENTER OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THIS HIGH WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW YEAR. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 9 PM...OUTSIDE OF SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURE TONIGHT BY A DEGREE OR TWO TO REFLECT LATEST TEMPERATURES...PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG. WESTERN ZONES HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...NO LESS THAN 4 DISTINCT FEATURES WORKING TOGETHER WILL CREATE AN UNSETTLED SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRIVEN BY A SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS LEAVES DEEP SW FLOW AND MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DEEP SW FLOW...2 SHORTWAVES...A WEAK ONE SUNDAY MORNING...AND A STRONGER IMPULSE MONDAY MORNING...WILL TRAVERSE OVERHEAD THE AREA. THE FORMER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME VERY LIGHT RAINFALL SUNDAY MORNING...FOCUSED MOSTLY ACROSS INLAND ZONES. A BREAK IN PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTN/EVE THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE...BEFORE RAIN RE-DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND /STRONGER/ SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE REFLECTION AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT BEHIND IT. AGAIN...TOTAL QPF LOOKS PRETTY LOW BUT AN AVERAGE OF ONE-QUARTER TO AS MUCH AS ONE-HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT...KEEPING UNSETTLED AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 60S THANKS TO WAA AND AFTN INSOLATION...AND LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL MUCH DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE CONTINUED WARM SW FLOW. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO DROP ONLY INTO THE MID 50S - VALUES MORE TYPICAL OF LATE-DECEMBER HIGHS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL STILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. A BIGGER DROP IN TEMPS IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO DEVELOPING CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S...COOLEST FAR NW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S WEATHER MAP WILL FEATURE AN UNUSUALLY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE NATION, IT`S CENTER OVER MONTANA. AT IT`S CORE IT IS A VERY CHILLY AIRMASS BUT WITH THE CAROLINAS ONLY ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A LITTLE BIT BELOW CLIMO. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THIS AIRMASS WILL BLEED SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. CONFLUENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL ALSO DRAW A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE MIDATLANTIC FROM THE PARENT HIGH. THIS SETS UP VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND ISOTHERMS ALIGN WITH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. RAD COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP TO MAKE WEDNESDAY COOLER THAN TUESDAY AS FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING OCCURS EACH DAY AND FAIRLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS EACH NIGHT. THINGS BECOME QUITE PROGRESSIVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AND MOISTURE RETURNING ALONG WITH IT. CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTH BE ON THE RISE. THE GFS HAS COASTAL TROUGHINESS AS WELL THAT WOULD IMPLY SOME MINOR RAIN CHANCES, BUT THIS FEATURE IS LARGELY ABSENT IN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN. WILL CAP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE/20S LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO CLIMB...AND WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...SOME MVFR VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DESPITE THE INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ADDITIONALLY...MARINE STRATOCU COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY SUN WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...PRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA MAINLY ACROSS OUR INLAND ZONES. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO -RA FOR KFLO/KLBT FROM 11-15Z... ALTHOUGH THE SREF PROBS KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP FURTHER INLAND. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY. GFS GUIDANCE IS STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LOWERING CIGS FOR SUN. BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR AFTER MIDDAY WOULD LIKELY BE ALONG THE COAST. SEA FOG AND STRATUS LOOK LIKE A CONCERN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S. THESE IMPACTS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE AS THEY WILL OCCUR JUST AFTER THE VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ON MON. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO TUE. VFR ON WED. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE COASTAL SITES ON THU. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 900 PM...PREVIOUS MARINE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. DISCUSSION FROM 3 PM FOLLOWS...NICE DOCILE DAY ON TAP FOR WFO ILM COASTAL WATERS. SFC PG TO REMAIN RATHER LOOSE AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE LIES NEARLY OVERHEAD AT THE MOMENT...BEFORE BEING PROGGED TO SLIDE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. INITIALLY...EXPECT AN ONSHORE WIND THAT COULD POSSIBLY GO VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A LACK OF A SFC PG...WIND SPEEDS WILL RUN 10 KT OR LESS. BY LATE TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS...WILL PRODUCE A SW-WSW WIND AROUND 10 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE NOW A COMBINATION OF THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES...AND AN EASTERLY 1-3 FOOT BONAFIDE GROUND SWELL WITH PERIODS AT 11-13 SECONDS. LOCAL BUOYS SUCH AS 41013 ARE PICKING UP ON THIS GROUND SWELL. AND FOR THE MOST PART...THIS GROUND SWELL WILL LIKELY DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIVE SW RETURN FLOW INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY EVENING. THIS CREATES TWO DISTINCT WIND REGIMES DURING THE SHORT TERM...SW AROUND 10 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...QUICKLY BECOMING NE AT 10-15 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING SUNDAY AFTN AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MOST OF THE NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY CENTERED OVER MONTANA, IT WILL BOTH BLEED SOUTH AND EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD AS TIME WEARS ON. THIS KEEPS WIND MORE OR LESS OUT OF THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY CRAWLS INTO THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MAY STILL BE BRINGING A NORTHERLY/OFFSHORE FLOW OR A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND TURN WINDS MORE EASTERLY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH/31 SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...BJR

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