Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 011053 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 653 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ISSUED SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...OTHERWISE PRIMARILY A TEMP FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WEST OF THE REGION WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN VERY DRY ABOVE 800MB YIELDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEMES SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH THE WARMEST READING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. MINS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY COASTAL AREAS AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST. FOR FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS LATE IN THE NIGHT AND IT APPEARS FRIDAY DAYTIME WILL BE DECENT. I HAVE FINE TUNED THE POPS WITH THE FRONT NOW THAT IT HAS ENTERED THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN BUT OVERALL LIKELY VALUES STILL HOLD. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH THE ONLY INTERESTING NOTE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. THEY SHOULD BE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO TODAY`S AS A LITTLE NORTHEAST SURGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AFFECTS THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PATTERN RELAXING VERY LATE. THIS DEEP TROUGH...CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL USHER IN A VERY FALL LIKE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE ZERO DEGREE 850MB ISOTHERM DIVING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE MAIN AXIS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION REACHES THE COAST SUNDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COOL WITH SOME 40S SHOWING UP IN THE MEXILM BULLETIN FOR MONDAY AM. IT APPEARS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MIXING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THIS MAY KEEP LOWS IN CHECK SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART WITH NO POPS. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 12Z...POCKETS OF DENSE FOG...MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BY 13Z...WITH THE WORST SPOTS BECOMING VFR AFTER 14Z. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ONCE AGAIN WILL CONTINUE...FINALLY BEING REPLACED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING THURSDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND SEAS IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE IS NOW FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL SEE VERY LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ON THE ORDER OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE NORTHEAST. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OT 15-20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS FROM A TEPID 1-2 FEET THURSDAY TO 3-5 FEET LATE FRIDAY. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS MAY DROP DOWN TO BELOW TEN KNOTS VERY LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW WITH SOME FIVE FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY WITH TWO FEET NEARSHORE. SUNDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR CONFIGURATION ALBEIT WITH MUCH LOWER SEAS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...43

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