Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241818 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 218 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms may be severe this afternoon and evening. A final round of showers and possibly a thunderstorm will accompany the passage of a cold front on Thursday. High pressure will build in late Thursday into Friday and persist into the weekend, bringing dry weather and increasing heat. Low pressure may affect the area early next week producing more unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1100 AM Wednesday...There is a risk for severe thunderstorms today. The pre-storm environment shows LCLs near 700 ft this afternoon and eve. Also, low level jetting increase up to near 50 kt later this afternoon and eve. This as instability grows with more breaks of sunshine than occurred on Tue. A weak shortwave embedded in deep SW flow is expected to help initiate thunderstorms later this afternoon and into this eve as deeper moisture surges back to the north. These thunderstorms will be capable of damaging wet microbursts and large hail. Isolated tornadoes will be possible with such low LCLs. Storms will be moving quickly given the mean flow, but wet ground and training and still rather high precipitable water values, just over 1.8 inches, may still yield some flooding and thus the Flash Flood Watch will remain posted through this eve. There is some uncertainty as to the coverage of thunderstorms through tonight as widespread thunderstorms developing to our S help to siphon the return of deep moisture. However, at this time, we have maintained categorical POPs. A dry slot wrapping around 500 mb trough will work into the area overnight, ending the risk for showers and thunderstorms from W to E. The 500 mb trough axis continues to be slow moving and it is the strong shortwave rounding the base of the trough that ultimately pushes the cold front into the forecast area as the period ends. Although the mid levels dry out and the forcing exits to the northeast by midnight, lingering low level moisture will keep skies cloudy. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...Cold front will be in process of moving offshore Thursday morning, and along with it, much of the deep moisture associated with our recent wet period. However, a potent upper disturbance will swing through on Thursday afternoon behind FROPA, and this combined with residual moisture should be enough to kick off a scattered round of daytime convection. Rapid improvement will follow as the short wave lifts northeast of the area and weak surface ridging builds in from the west. Expect dry weather and clearing skies for Thursday night through Friday. Relatively cool temperatures following FROPA on Thursday will give way to seasonal readings on Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Plenty of dry air will move in with deep westerly flow on the back end of exiting low pressure system on Fri. Pcp water values drop down to .75 inches or below early Fri but do creep back up over an inch by late Friday. Overall expect a sunny dry day on Friday with temps reaching into the mid 80s. High pressure ridge to the south will reach up into the Carolinas maintaining pleasant weather through much of the weekend. A shortwave rides across the top of the ridge over the weekend mainly remaining north of the forecast area. This could produce some clouds or a spotty shower late Sat into Sat night, mainly over NC. The GFS builds the ridge a little farther north and therefore holds any weather farther to the north with a deep warm southerly flow and sunnier weather overall all weekend. A deeper mid to upper trough digs down late in the weekend and could produce an increase of clouds and showers Sun through Tues timeframe. Will have to see how the models evolve. For now, will keep chc of shwrs north of area through Sat night but will include Pops for Sun through Tues. The building ridge and westerly downslope flow through the mid levels will produce above normal temps through much of the period with temps reaching above 90 in spots especially over the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 18Z Wednesday...Primary flight restrictions will be driven by showers and thunderstorms through 02z. Have included tempo IFR visibility and ceilings during this time. Thunderstorms during this time will also have the potential to produce strong wind gusts, possibly in excess of 40 kt. Drier air should begin to wrap into the area during the late eve and any ceiling restrictions should be primarily MVFR overnight, trending toward VFR. Boundary layer winds should remain elevated through the night to keep southwest winds up, thus precluding any fog development. The passage of a cold front Thu may bring a shower or thunderstorm, primarily at KLBT and KILM and have included a Prob30 for this occurrence after 16z THU. Extended Outlook...MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late Sun and Mon.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1100 AM Wednesday...A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through the period. SW winds will be sustained at up to 25 to 30 kt. A few gusts up to gale force will be possible tonight. Seas will be in the 6 to 9 ft range. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will produce poor visibility late day and into the first part of the overnight. Some storms may be severe. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...Expect Small Craft Advisory criteria to be breached Thursday and Thursday night as a cold front passes across and then moves east of the waters. Have extended the SCA into Thursday as a result. Gradually improving conditions on Friday as high pressure builds in from the west means we will likely be advisory-free for the end of the work week. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...A stronger off shore westerly flow on Friday will diminish and back around to the W-SW through the day as low pressure system exits farther off to the east and high pressure builds up from the south. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will diminish to 2 to 4 ft through Friday and down below 3 ft by Fri night in weakening offshore flow. High pressure south of the area waters will shift east through the weekend into early next week producing a persistent SW return flow. Initially winds will only be 10 kts or so but low pressure moving by to the north Sat night into Sun and an approaching cold front late in the weekend into early next week may produce an increase in SW winds. Seas less than 3 ft Saturday in lighter winds will rise up to 3 to 5 ft in increasing SW winds Sat night into Sun. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-053>056. Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. NC...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ087-096- 099-105>110. Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252- 254-256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/III SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...RJD

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