Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 232347 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 747 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 700 PM THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. MASSAGED HOURLY SFC TEMPS/DEWPTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. OVERALL...NO CATEGORICAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. SFC WINDS TO REMAIN ACTIVE ATLEAST THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME DECOUPLING LIKELY ESPECIALLY INLAND ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA WHERE THE SFC PG IS MORE RELAXED AND WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC BECOME NW-N 10 KT OR LESS. THIS VIA NAM/GFS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN/GRADIENT PROGS AND MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA. MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE 400MB AND HIER LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...INDICATIVE OF THIN POSSIBLY OPAQUE CI/CS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.......................................... AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON IN DEEP NW FLOW AROUND FRONT END OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE N-NW. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF DEEP LOW OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY COLUMN THROUGH TONIGHT. PCP WATER LEVELS BASICALLY BELOW A HALF INCH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY A BIT OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAM OVER AREA IN W-SW FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE BY MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. THEREFORE ANY LINGERING GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE AS SUN SETS THIS EVENING LEAVING NEAR CALM WINDS BY LATE EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MODIFY AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER BUT OVERALL TEMPS UP CLOSE TO 70 THIS AFTN UNDER BRIGHT OCTOBER SUNSHINE...WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING UNDER CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN TO 4O TO 45 DEGREES MOST PLACES. ANY CIRRUS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPS MUCH AT ALL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE WINDS PREVENT ANY LOW OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE IMPRESSIVE DISTURBANCE WITH STRONGER NORTH WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...UP TO 80 KNOTS AT 300 MB. THIS SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY HELP LIFT THE REMNANTS OF OLD TROPICAL DEPRESSION #9 NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...BUT MUCH TOO FAR EAST FOR ANY IMPACT LOCALLY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER PARTICULARLY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS. ANY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE ALL MINOR. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE GORGEOUS FALL WEATHER LOCALLY. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING...LEAVING A CONTINUED BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST. THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH AS RIDGING BLOOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...AND THEN AMPLIFIES OFFSHORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BENEATH THIS RIDGE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLOWLY OFFSHORE...SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL LONG-TERM WITH A WARMING TREND FROM SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO SUNDAY...TO WELL ABOVE BY TUE/WED...AND THIS WARMING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CLOUD COVER...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND LIKELY DROP SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS LIMITED AND THE COLUMN REMAINS PRETTY DRY...SO WHILE TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS...PRECIP WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED. NEVERTHELESS...THURSDAY WILL OFFER THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME RAINFALL. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 5 KT...BECOMING NORTH EARLY FRI MORNING. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY FRI...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS BUT NO THREAT OF PCPN GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY COLUMN. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VRB DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 715 PM THURSDAY...LOOKING AT NW-NNW WINDS AT 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. STILL SOME 20-25 KT WINDS PROGGED JUST OFF THE DECK NORTH OF CAPE FEAR THRU THIS EVENING. THE WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS WITH 2 TO 3 FT BEING FCST...AND THIS MAY EVEN BE OVERDONE. AN IDENTIFIABLE 1 FT OR LESS EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT 10+ SECOND PERIODS REMAINS PRESENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................ AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS OVER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO WILL SEE SOME GUSTIER WINDS IN WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT AS COOL AND DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...HIGHEST IN OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN DIMINISHING NW-N OFF SHORE FLOW. AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...A SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD UP TO 10 SEC NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVER THE THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN AN OFFSHORE WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON WEATHER DOWN HERE AT THE SURFACE. WITH LARGELY OFFSHORE WINDS AND ONLY A TINY 9-SECOND SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST...SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS KEEPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE NEARLY EVERY COMPASS DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE FROM THE W/NW...BEFORE SLOWLY VEERING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TO THE E/NE...AND THEN VEERING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION. THANKS TO THESE LIGHT WINDS...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE GENERALLY 1-2 FT...WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...BJR

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