Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 110313 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1013 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will continue with a return toward normal temperatures into Tuesday. Another cold blast will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday as a strong dry cold front moves through. Arctic air mass over the Carolinas on Wednesday will warm back up Thursday through Friday. Another frontal system will increase rain chances on Friday followed by a brief cool down on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 915 PM Sunday...Mainly an hourly temp/dewpt forecast for the overnight period into daylight Mon. Used latest sfc obs and their trends and meshed it with a consensus of the near term models, HRRR, RAP and the HiReswrf. Majority of the ILM CWA will experience lows at or below 32 degrees with some mid to upper 20s across the usual cold prone locations. Ecellent rad cooling conditions tonight, with the sfc based inversion developing this evening and persisting overnight. Winds will decouple with some sites already under the spell of the decent rad cooling. Some WAA occures aloft, mainly just above the sfc based inversion thru 850 mb. The 1000-850mb progged thickness and 850mb temps themselves illustrate the overnight milder trend. However this WAA will remain aloft due to the dense cold air at the sfc. Previous..................................................... As of 300 PM Sunday...High pressure will control area weather through Monday resulting in mainly clear skies through the period. Temperatures will be below normal with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s tonight and highs Monday in the 50 to 55 degree range. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Seasonable start to the period will be followed by another cold blast late Tues into Tues night as a strong dry cold front moves through. As the next shortwave digs down into the Southeast on Tuesday, it will push a strong cold front through the Carolinas. Ahead of this front winds will back to the SW and increase as gradient tightens. This relatively warmer and moister flow will allow overnight temps Mon night to remain up in the mid 30s to around 40. Winds will begin to veer to a more westerly direction as cold front approaches on Tues. This will initially bring temps up into the mid 50s to near 60 for high temps on Tues, but there will be an increase in clouds through the day as cold front moves through, followed by deep cold and dry air heading into Tues night as shortwave clears the coast. Overall, expect temps to plummet late Tues into early Wed as 850 temps take a nose dive from up near 8c early Tues down to -11c by daybreak on Wed. A clear start Mon night will be followed by some clouds as front moves through Tues aftn into early eve and then very dry air will move in with dewpoint temps dropping down into the teens by Wed morning. This arctic blast will feel even colder when you combine the gusty NW winds early Wed making temps in the mid to upper 20s feel as if they are closer to 20 degrees. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...The extended will feature primarily a continuation of below normal temperatures as anomalous ridge across the western CONUS drives deep troughing over the eastern half of the country. This trough will be re-enforced no less than 3 times, Tuesday night just before the extended, Friday, and again late Sunday, as 3 potent shortwave dig through the longwave trough and cause a surge of cold air to envelop the Carolinas. Each of these shortwaves will be accompanied by a cold front, but for the most part these will be dry. However, the front next weekend could be preceded by enough moist advection that showers will be possible. The ECM is much different from the GFS/CMC next wknd as it does not produce this third shortwave or cold front for Sunday. Despite the pattern being amplified, mid-level flow remains fast, so it seems likely another shortwave cold front would be in the vicinity by the end of the period and will lean the forecast in that direction, but much uncertainty exists by D7. Temperatures behind the cold fronts, Wednesday and Friday, will be well below normal, with Wednesday highs likely peaking in the low 40s. Weak warm advection does occur after each FROPA, so Thursday/Friday, and likely again on Sunday, will have temperatures more towards climo norms. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 00Z...Could make an argument for one line TAFs. High pressure centered to our southwest will give us light mainly westerly flow through the forecast period. Moisture profiles do not support fog, however some shallow ground fog is possible in the usually prone areas. VFR Monday. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 930 PM Sunday...Mariner favored winds and sea conditions tonight into Mon. The sfc pg will continue it`s temporary relaxing phase overnight into Mon with winds becoming WSW to WNW at 10 to occasionally 15 kt. The hier end of the wind fcst, 15 kt, will occur over SSTs in the 60s and hier as seen with various Buoy reports. Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft with a 7 to 9 second period pseudo Easterly ground swell dominating at times. Previous...................................................... As of 300 PM Sunday...Expect W to SW winds of 10 to 15 KT through the period with seas of 2 to 3 feet. No flags required. SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Southwest winds will increase Mon night into Tues ahead of an approaching strong cold front. Winds will veer to the west to northwest through Tues remaining up to 15 to 20 kts. As cold front passes across the waters late Tues, winds will veer to the NW allowing a blast of very cold and dry air to move in. Expect seas to reach into SCA thresholds by Tues aftn and should remain up to 5 to 7 ft in increasing off shore flow and plenty of CAA through late Tues into early Wed. The increasing off shore flow will keep highest seas in the outer waters Tues night. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Gusty NW winds greet the period behind a cold front which will be offshore Wednesday morning. Seas will be falling thanks to the offshore flow, but wind speeds of 20-25 kts early Wednesday may necessitate an SCA carryover from Tuesday. High pressure will build across the waters the latter half of Wednesday and Thursday, allowing winds to ease to 10-15 kts while maintaining a W/NW direction. Seas will fall in tandem during this timeframe, becoming around 2 ft after briefing touching 3-5 ft Wednesday morning. Another cold front will approach during Friday, and ahead of this feature winds become W/SW and increase again to 15-20 kts driving seas up to 4-6 ft, and another SCA may be required near the end of the week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAN NEAR TERM...DCH/RAN SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL

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