Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251952 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 252 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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CENTER OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS BY SATURDAY...AND FURTHER OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL PUSH IN MILDER AND MOIST AREA ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER...WILL SLOWLY SNAKE ACROSS THE BI-STATE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE FINALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MID-WEEK PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SKY CONDITIONS HAVE CLEARED AS EXPECTED...AND A BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DENSE MID-LEVEL OVERCAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...AND AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES NE FROM THE GULF COAST...A CLEAR AND DRY NIGHT IS ON TAP. THIS CREATES JUST A TEMP FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE...SO WINDS WILL EASE TO JUST A FEW KTS FROM THE NE...AND DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY DRY COLUMN...PWATS LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH...WILL PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND HAVE FORECAST MINS BELOW EVEN THE COOLEST GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM SUB-FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS...TO THE UPPER 30S RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED THIS PERIOD. IT WILL CONSIST OF AN AMPLIFIED AND STRONG UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEA-BOARD AND WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER TROFFING ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE U.S. WHICH INCLUDES THE ROCKIES TO THE PACIFIC COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST BY SATURDAY WHEREBY OPENING UP THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE SOURCE FOR THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SFC...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS DURING SATURDAY. WITH LOW MEAN RHS THRU THE ATM COLUMN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING ...LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES DURING THIS PERIOD. LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA BY SATURDAY...YIELDS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH CIRRUS/CIRRUS STRATUS OVERSPREADING THE FA. AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH FURTHER INCREASES THRU THE ATM COLUMN...MID LEVEL AND POSSIBLY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE FA DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. POP CHANCES FOR RW-/R- WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT FROM ISOLATED COVERAGE SAT EVENING...TO LOW CHANCE DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUN HOURS. VERY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IE. MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS...WILL PUSH FROM SW-NE AND INTERACT WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TO PRODUCE THE MENTIONED POPS. JUST NO ORGANIZED SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO FURTHER AID PCPN FORMATION. AS FOR TEMPS...MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ONE OF THE TOP PLAYERS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS GUIDANCE. POTENTIAL BUST THOUGH...WITH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE NEARLY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES OFF FROM ONE ANOTHER THRUOUT THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VERY BROAD AND POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND CENTRAL CANADA. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS LOW PRESSURE CUTS OFF IN THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE INCLUDE A WAVERING FRONT CUTTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPED OF THE ROCKIES. POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE HIGHEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND HAVE INCREMENTALLY INCREASED POPS. THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES TUESDAY PUSHING THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. I HAVE TRIMMED BACK OR REMOVED POPS COMPLETELY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEW AIR MASS IS QUITE MODIFIED BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA BUT STILL WILL REPRESENT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...MOST NOTABLY DAYTIME HIGHS. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE SMALL POPS FOR THURSDAY AS A NEW SYSTEM MAY BE TAKING SHAPE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY... TAKING THE MID CLOUD CEILING WITH IT. LOOK FOR WEST WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. LITTLE TO NO FOG EXPECTED DUE TO DRY MOISTURE PROFILES. FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN RETURNING SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GULF COAST RIDGES NORTHEAST. WESTERLY WINDS REMAINED GUSTY MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...BUT ARE FINALLY RELAXING NOW DUE TO THE WEAKENING GRADIENT. AT 1PM...LOCALLY EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE NC WATERS UNTIL 4PM WHILE ALLOWING THE SC WATERS TO EXPIRE ON-TIME. CURRENT BUOY OBS SHOW WINDS AND SEAS BELOW THRESHOLDS EVEN AT FRYING PAN SHOALS NOW...SO WILL CANCEL THE REMAINING SCA AN HOUR EARLY AT 3PM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST...BECOMING NE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO CONTINUE TO FALL...TO 1-3 FT...0-1 FT NEAR SHORE. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS 1 WOULD EXPECT...A RELAXED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND YIELD WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. A VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION WILL ALSO OCCUR UNDERNEATH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...HOWEVER WILL PROVIDE THE MOST COMMON DIRECTION EXPECTED TO AFFECT/OCCUR ACROSS THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL START OUT AT 2 TO 3 FT ON FRIDAY WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 7 SECONDS. FOR SATURDAY...A DECENT 2 TO 4 FOOT NE-E GROUND SWELL WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 14+ SECONDS ...WILL AFFECT AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL WATERS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A RATHER LAZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WATERS ARE CAUGHT BETWEEN A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. SPEEDS SHOULD HOVER AROUND TEN KNOTS. THE FRONT FINALLY GETS PUSHED THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL AS THERE IS MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. EXPECT A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. OVERALL SEAS WILL REMAIN QUITE TRANQUIL WITH 2-3 FEET.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...JDW/DL

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