-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 100248
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1049 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SEABREEZE FRONT MADE IT ALMOST TO
INTERSTATE 95 THIS EVENING...AND WAS PROBABLY THE REASON A CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS BLEW UP A COUPLE HOURS AGO ACROSS FLORENCE....
MARION AND DILLON COUNTIES. THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPED AND THRIVED IN
THE FACE OF SOME PRETTY DRY AIR ALOFT...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
MOISTENING AS DEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE AS LOW AS 1.3
INCHES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES ACROSS
THE PEE DEE REGION NOW.

WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ALOFT...ANY SUBTLE TRIGGER SHOULD BE ABLE TO FIRE OFF A SHORT-LIVED
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE QUITE
LOW...ONLY 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE 0-6 KM LAYER...AND WILL BE EVEN LOWER
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS MEANS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL BE
LACKING WITH MAINLY SINGLE CELLS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE
ONLY CONCEIVABLE THREAT AT THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS...MID 70S ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION AND UPPER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. THE BEACHES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR
THE SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE THIS FRONT
WILL STALL AND ABOVE THE SURFACE PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL INCREASE
TO 2 PLUS INCHES. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PARALLEL THE FRONT AND THE
850 TO 700 MB WINDS WILL BE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. EVEN HIGHER THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE 300 MB JET WILL INCREASE SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT. SO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MIDDAY CONTINUE TO BE HIGH. BY FRIDAY
MIDDAY THE SYNOPTIC SCALE VORTICITY HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND IT WILL
DRAG THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT THE CHANCES FOR THE HEAVY
RAIN TO DIMINISHED AT THIS TIME.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S ON THURSDAY IF THE
CONVECTION HOLD OFF AND CLOUDS AND RAIN DO NOT COOL THE ATMOSPHERE
TO QUICKLY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE EVEN LOWER WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN
KEEP THE HIGHS AT BAY AND REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER
70S FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...REMAINS OF COLD FRONT STILL SHOWING UP
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. BETWEEN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHERE IT STALLS PAIRED WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING WHICH SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY IS FAVORED FOR PRECIP WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS
AREA-WIDE 40-ISH POP. THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ON SUNDAY AND A VERY
WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY BE DEVELOPING. ITS STILL HARD TO SHOW ANY
PARTICULAR FAVORED AREA FOR POPS BUT WILL SHOW A SMALL DOWNWARD
TREND DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL DRYING. MONDAY SHOULD OFFER SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND A SEASONABLE DISTRIBUTION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AS
THE AREA FINDS ITSELF BETWEEN A VERY WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER FL AND AN
UNSEASONABLY LARGE/STRONG VORTEX DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FEATURE A RETURN OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND A
SLIGHT VEERING OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW. RAINFALL CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE JUST SLIGHTLY WHILE TEMPS
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PATCHY AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT COULD CREATE BRIEF-MVFR
INLAND...AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY POSSIBLY CREATING MVFR/IFR
ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS...AND
HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY OVERALL QUIET ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST...WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY MOVE NEAR THE INLAND SITES. HOWEVER DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
RESTRICTIONS. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR
INLAND INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...THUS ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. AS FOR
WINDS...EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS INLAND AND UP TO
AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION WITH A DECENT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...WIND GUSTS AT THE BEACHES HAVE STARTED TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH...DOWN TO 20-22 KNOTS ON THE 10 PM OBSERVATIONS.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED ON THIS LATE EVENING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT WINDS ARE GUSTING 22-26 KNOTS AT OBSERVATION
SITES ALONG THE BEACHES...COURTESY OF THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE PLUS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH.
A LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVERHEAD AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH
1000 FOOT WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS...BUT SHOULD ALSO DIE AWAY
FASTER THAN IT DID LAST NIGHT. AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
15-20 KT. SEAS ARE AROUND 4 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
BUOY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 230 PM FOLLOWS...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INLAND. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT AS GRADIENT
WEAKENS THROUGH THE NIGHT LEAVING WINDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS BUT THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AT THE COAST AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS FRIDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 3 FEET ON THURSDAY BUT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 2 FEET BY
FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A
WEAKENING FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CAST A
SMALL DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO WIND DIRECTION BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANT. THIS BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT BY SUNDAY AS A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS. THIS MAY BE
GOOD FOR ABOUT A 5KT/1FT INCREASE IN CONDITIONS. A SIMILAR OR EVEN
LARGER INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE SLATED FOR MONDAY. BROAD
CYCLONIC CURVATURE AROUND A LARGE STORM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
RESPONSIBLE FOR TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT LOCALLY. HEADLINES OR EVEN
AND ADVISORY APPEAR POSSIBLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL