Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 180621 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 221 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic states will bring several days of cool, dry weather to the Carolinas. Temperatures should begin to warm up this weekend as the high moves off the coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 AM Wednesday...Surface high pressure remains centered to our northeast through the entire period, albeit with a secondary center developing well off of New England coast. Even though surface flow remains northeasterly the winds are veered somewhat in the vertical allowing for an east-to-west rise today in PW values. In the mid levels one upper impulse is departing offshore with another one somewhat atypically close on its heels. The approaching trough will weaken as it impinges upon the area tonight but with little fanfare as the column is far too dry to support any sensible weather. The exception may be an increase in clouds mainly along the coast where there will be a bit more moisture present.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 AM Wednesday...A 500 mb ridge over the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday will build over the Carolinas on Friday. This should push the surface high from the southern Appalachians into the northeastern U.S. A pronounced subsidence inversion descending to as low as 3000 feet AGL should help keep skies clear. It`s a pretty unremarkable weather pattern. 850 mb temps will recover through the period from around +10C Thursday morning to around +14C by Friday. While the subsidence inversion aloft should guarantee we won`t mix all the way up to 850 mb, it still appears we`ll see upper 70s for highs both days, with perhaps an isolated 80-degree reading Friday. Morning lows should range from the upper 40s-lower 50s Thursday night to the lower-mid 50s Friday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...It will remain high and dry into Sunday as high pressure remains in control of area weather. An approaching cold front and return flow around the high will bring increasing clouds Sunday and Sunday night with a small chance of showers. Chances for showers will continue Monday and Tuesday as the front moves into and through the area. Max temperatures Friday through Monday will be in the upper 70s to around 80 and in the mid 70s Tuesday. Minimums will moderate from the low to mid 50s Friday morning to the low to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 06Z...High confidence for VFR conditions through the forecast period. Light northeast winds through the TAF period as high pressure remains to our north. The deep layer column will be too dry to support any clouds. Extended Outlook...Possible MVFR cigs Thurs AM. Possible showers on Monday. Otherwise VFR. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday...In a pattern more typical of later in the cool season high pressure will be found north and northeast of the region through the period. Six foot seas will still plague the outer regions of the forecast area through this afternoon except for along Horry County due to wave shadowing off of Cape Fear. A Small Craft Advisory remains for the former, whereas SCEC continues for the later. Either or both headline may need to be extended slightly into tonight but have held off at doing so at this time. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday...High pressure will remain across the Mid-Atlantic states Thursday through Friday. A weak wave of low pressure will develop in the open Atlantic northeast of the Bahamas on Thursday, quickly shooting northeast and away from the United States. This feature will help keep the pressure gradient tight enough on Thursday for 15-20 kt northeast winds in the morning, but wind speeds should diminish Thursday afternoon and night, and by Friday morning should be 10 kt or less. Seas should likewise subside through the period. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Winds will gradually become easterly by Sunday morning then southeast by Sunday night. Seas 2 to 3 FT Saturday then increase to 3 to 5 FT by Sunday evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Astronomical tides are increasing as we approach a new moon on Thu. This coupled with strong NE winds, may breach minor coastal flooding thresholds at Wrightsville Beach and advisories may be needed along portions of the North Carolina coast around the time of high tide for the next several days. The same will be true of the lower Cape Fear River to include downtown Wilmington. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252-256.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...RAN AVIATION...MBB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.