


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --069 FXUS62 KILM 290649 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 249 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Temperatures will remain near to above normal through early next week with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected as high pressure prevails. An approaching cold front will bring increasing chances for more widespread thunderstorms along with slightly cooler temperatures during the mid-week period. Improving conditions for Fri into the upcoming weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --Mid-level Bermuda ridging will extend westward across the NC-SC forecast area. This will provide a limit to convection across the area due to associated subsidence. However, its strength is not as pronounced like previous days. And, like previous days, will have the inland Piedmont trof and the sea breeze as foci for convection initiation. Overall, around 30 pops will be the way to go, with areas away from the immediate coast the primary locations under this convective threat. The convection will be diurnally driven and occur from early afternoon midday thru mid-evening. Will observe widespread 90-95 degree readings except mid to upper 80s along the immediate coast. Widespread low to mid 70s sfc dewpoints will result in Heat indices in the 100-103 degree range, not quite Heat Adv thresholds of 105. Tonights lows in the mid 70s with upper 70s along the immediate coast. The high astronomical tides continue with the lower Cape Fear River remaining under the gun for minor coastal flooding from Wilmington southward, mainly during the overnight periods of Sun and Mon nights.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --Monday appears to be our last day of atypically scant convection as the ridging at all levels hangs on just offshore. Mesoscale boundaries will be lacking due to Sunday`s quiet convective coverage and the seabreeze will be hard pressed to push parcels above the cap at 5kft. POPS again capped at 30 and tending to avoid the beach due to a storm motion of 200 degrees. Temperatures again to warm into the low to mid 90s away from the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --The pattern starts to change on Tuesday as an upper trough and cold front approach from the NW. Rain chances will be on the rise, but there doesn`t seem much that will temper the heat. The front draws closer on Wednesday, a little slower than previously forecast. More widespread clouds and convective coverage could cap highs below 90. By Thursday the weakened front will have pushed some of the deeper layer moisture offshore but cyclonic curvature aloft and numerous outflows still favor slightly elevated POPs, likely closer to the coast more proximal to the deeper moisture. This front gets hard to analyze on weather maps by Friday but the next one is approaching already, perhaps near the NC/VA border. This front actually manages to push through by Saturday for an actual airmass change, at least by June standards.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --High confidence in VFR for the vast majority of the 06Z TAF issuance period. Similar to last night, chances for fog/low cigs are very low early this morning via latest GFSLamp guidance. Convection will be diurnally driven once again with the sea breeze and inland sfc trof as areas to observe initiation from this afternoon thru mid evening. At this point, will continue to highlight inland terminals with 30prob groups. Coastal terminals, the convection may be just far enough inland to not include a prob30 at this time. Nocturnal convection over the adjacent Atl Waters should remain just off the coast but close enough to possibly deal with convective debris clouds at the local coastal terminals. Winds generally SW around 5 kt early this morning, backing to the S at 10-15 kt at the coastal terminals once the sea breeze develops and pushes inland. Inland terminals will see the S winds later this aftn and evening AOB 7 kt. Extended Outlook...Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible due to isolated/scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms through Mon. The potential for increasing flight restrictions will occur midweek as a cold front drops to the area.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --Through Tonight...Bermuda Sfc high pressure ridging will remain south of the area waters resulting in a continued SW wind direction. Inland Piedmont trof across the central Carolinas will persist. The gradient between the 2 wx features will result in wind speeds 10 to occasionally 15 kt. The exception will be nearshore this aftn thru the evening where the sea breeze once developed by midday will progress inland. In its wake, the nearshore waters, within 10 nm of the coast, will observe S winds around 15 kt with few gusts to 20 possible. Seas generally around 3 ft and will be dominated by the persistent small SE swell at 9 second periods with choppy white capped waves on top this aftn and evening. Sunday night through Thursday...A few fronts will approach during the long term but the southwesterly component will continue to dominate as the Bermuda High and Piedmont trough remain the wind-makers. By Tuesday the fist front will be close enough to increase wind speeds into the 15-20kt range, about a category increase. This will bring the wind wave/swell combo up to 4-5 ft especially over NC waters. The swell energy will still be present out of the SE or ESE but have much less presence than the shorter period wind waves.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DCH MARINE...DCH/MBB