Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 100248 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1049 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SEABREEZE FRONT MADE IT ALMOST TO INTERSTATE 95 THIS EVENING...AND WAS PROBABLY THE REASON A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS BLEW UP A COUPLE HOURS AGO ACROSS FLORENCE.... MARION AND DILLON COUNTIES. THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPED AND THRIVED IN THE FACE OF SOME PRETTY DRY AIR ALOFT...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTENING AS DEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE AS LOW AS 1.3 INCHES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION NOW. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALOFT...ANY SUBTLE TRIGGER SHOULD BE ABLE TO FIRE OFF A SHORT-LIVED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE QUITE LOW...ONLY 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE 0-6 KM LAYER...AND WILL BE EVEN LOWER FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS MEANS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL BE LACKING WITH MAINLY SINGLE CELLS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE ONLY CONCEIVABLE THREAT AT THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...MID 70S ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION AND UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE BEACHES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND ABOVE THE SURFACE PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 2 PLUS INCHES. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PARALLEL THE FRONT AND THE 850 TO 700 MB WINDS WILL BE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. EVEN HIGHER THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE 300 MB JET WILL INCREASE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MIDDAY CONTINUE TO BE HIGH. BY FRIDAY MIDDAY THE SYNOPTIC SCALE VORTICITY HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND IT WILL DRAG THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT THE CHANCES FOR THE HEAVY RAIN TO DIMINISHED AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S ON THURSDAY IF THE CONVECTION HOLD OFF AND CLOUDS AND RAIN DO NOT COOL THE ATMOSPHERE TO QUICKLY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE EVEN LOWER WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN KEEP THE HIGHS AT BAY AND REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...REMAINS OF COLD FRONT STILL SHOWING UP STALLED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. BETWEEN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE IT STALLS PAIRED WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING WHICH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY IS FAVORED FOR PRECIP WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS AREA-WIDE 40-ISH POP. THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ON SUNDAY AND A VERY WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY BE DEVELOPING. ITS STILL HARD TO SHOW ANY PARTICULAR FAVORED AREA FOR POPS BUT WILL SHOW A SMALL DOWNWARD TREND DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL DRYING. MONDAY SHOULD OFFER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A SEASONABLE DISTRIBUTION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AS THE AREA FINDS ITSELF BETWEEN A VERY WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER FL AND AN UNSEASONABLY LARGE/STRONG VORTEX DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FEATURE A RETURN OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND A SLIGHT VEERING OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW. RAINFALL CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE JUST SLIGHTLY WHILE TEMPS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 00Z...PATCHY AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT COULD CREATE BRIEF-MVFR INLAND...AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY POSSIBLY CREATING MVFR/IFR ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS...AND HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY OVERALL QUIET ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY MOVE NEAR THE INLAND SITES. HOWEVER DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY RESTRICTIONS. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR INLAND INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THUS ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. AS FOR WINDS...EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS INLAND AND UP TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...WIND GUSTS AT THE BEACHES HAVE STARTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DOWN TO 20-22 KNOTS ON THE 10 PM OBSERVATIONS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED ON THIS LATE EVENING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS... MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT WINDS ARE GUSTING 22-26 KNOTS AT OBSERVATION SITES ALONG THE BEACHES...COURTESY OF THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE PLUS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. A LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVERHEAD AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH 1000 FOOT WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS...BUT SHOULD ALSO DIE AWAY FASTER THAN IT DID LAST NIGHT. AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE 15-20 KT. SEAS ARE AROUND 4 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 230 PM FOLLOWS... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT AS GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH THE NIGHT LEAVING WINDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST LATE THURSDAY THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS BUT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AT THE COAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS FRIDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3 FEET ON THURSDAY BUT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 2 FEET BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAKENING FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CAST A SMALL DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO WIND DIRECTION BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANT. THIS BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BY SUNDAY AS A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS. THIS MAY BE GOOD FOR ABOUT A 5KT/1FT INCREASE IN CONDITIONS. A SIMILAR OR EVEN LARGER INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE SLATED FOR MONDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE AROUND A LARGE STORM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES RESPONSIBLE FOR TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT LOCALLY. HEADLINES OR EVEN AND ADVISORY APPEAR POSSIBLE.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...HAWKINS LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL

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