Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 291354 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 954 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WARMTH WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST NEXT WEEK INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 952 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED A LINE FROM SOUTH OF CHARLOTTE TO GOLDSBORO AND EAST TO THE OUTER BANKS. THIS BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED WELL IN THE 925 MB THETA FIELD. THE 13 UTC RUC IS SHOWING THE EAST-WEST THETA GRADIENT DISSIPATING WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS SHOWING A MOISTURE GRADIENT FROM 1.6 INCHES TO THE NORTH TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE SOUTH. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH. THE 12 UTC HRRR REFLECTIVITY FIELD IS DEPICTING SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND REMAINING DRY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE. FORECAST HIGHS WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S MAINLY WEST OF LUMBERTON TO ANDREWS AND LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. THERE WILL BE A FEW UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 70.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WARRANTED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING A RATHER WEAK SIGNAL FOR MOSTLY SEA BREEZE CONVECTION AND HAVE MAINTAINED THESE MINIMAL POPS IN THE FORECAST. PERHAPS A FEW MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE ON THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SYSTEM NOW LIGHTING UP THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MAKES IT EAST. TEMPERATURE FORECAST/GUIDANCE WARRANTS ONLY TOKEN CHANGES AS UPPER 80S ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND LOWER 90S INLAND CONTINUE. 70S FOR MORNING LOWS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY RIDGING AS BASICALLY A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS. AN ELONGATED RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST TO WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD TRANSITIONING FROM A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...NOTABLE FEATURES WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH CLOSER TO OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE POPS ESSENTIALLY EVERY DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE SURFACE FEATURES GET AN ASSIST FROM THE UPPER LEVELS. THE TIMING HOWEVER IS LOWER CONFIDENCE. WITH THE PERIOD MODULATED BY HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPERATURES BOTH MAX AND MINS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BY JUST ABOUT A CATEGORY ACROSS THE BOARD. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT THIS AM BECOMING S TO SE AT 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. WITH THE S TO SE FLOW...AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SUCH THAT FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...TAFS HAVE MVFR FOG AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 500 FEET BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG AFTER 06Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS SAT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 952 AM FRIDAY...CURRENTLY A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS BLOWING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH 2 TO 2.5 FT WAVES. THE BUOYS ARE PICKING UP A 1/3 FOOT SWELL FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THE WAVE WATCH IS SHOWING THIS DECREASING WITH TIME. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK AND WIND SPEED ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT VEERING TO SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A SYSTEM CREEPS IN FROM THE WEST BUT THIS WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL TRANSITION. SWAN SEAS SHOW A CONSISTENT 1-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LATE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN FULL FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS...NOW VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SWELL COMPONENT WILL BE 1-3 FEET.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HAWKINS SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RAN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.