Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 310549 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 149 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY NEXT WEEK. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTHWARD HAS DISSIPATED TO A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HORRY COUNTY. THIS TREND TO LIKELY CONTINUE WITH THIS PCPN. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM FROM THE ILM CWA...A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA POSSIBLY WITH TSRA...EXTENDS FROM BURLINGTON TO SHELBY. THIS IS LIKELY ON THE COLD FRONT ITSELF VIA LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS. THE CURRENT AND NEW ACTIVITY ARE BENIGN AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY AS IT DROPS TO THE SOUTH BY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO THE SE AND WILL STALL AT OR JUST BEFORE THE CAROLINA COASTS COME DAYBREAK FRI. AS A RESULT...HAVE LEFT ATLEAST A SMALL POP THRUOUT THE PRE-DAWN FRI HRS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. LOWS FRI MORNING TO RANGE IN THE LOW 70S WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE MID 70S ELSEWHERE. LOOKING AT THE LATEST 00Z NAM GUIDANCE...MAY HAVE TO UP CLOUD COVERAGE VIA NAM MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.THE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BUT A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE SEEN WITH +2 INCH PW ALONG THE COAST TO 1.5 INCHES WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST CONVECTION FROM 15 UTC INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A 50% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONVECTION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BACK TO 30 PERCENT BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S INLAND UNTIL THE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION BEGINNING AND TO THE UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STALLED COLD/STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY SUNDAY...PROBABLY ALIGNED RIGHT ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST... BEFORE WASHING OUT AND DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. VERY HIGH PWATS AND SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST...SO AS THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH MONDAY AND FALLS APART...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SE TO NW. HOWEVER... THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE THE MDT-CHC POP ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW- CHC INLAND FOR SUN/MON ALONG WITH TEMPS AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL EXPAND NE INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES LOCALLY...BUT WITH TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. THIS HEAT MAY BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTH THURSDAY...WITH VERY DEEP TROUGHING IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS AND ONCE AGAIN INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...RADAR WAS SHOWING SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA AND STALL OFF THE SE COAST TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCAL AREA FOR CONVECTION. FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IT WILL IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS DIRECTLY. VFR EARLY TODAY WITH SOME MVFR LATER IN CEILINGS AS CONVECTION FIRES UP. AS THE WEAK FRONT CLEARS THE COAST LATER TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1045 PM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR...WILL BEGIN TO GET SHUNTED TO THE N BY NE LATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE MAINLAND...THAT WILL SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION BY DAYBREAK AND LIKELY STALL JUST PRIOR TO REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS TEMPORARY SHORTCOMING A RESULT OF THE LACK OF ANY MID OR UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICAL PUSH. WINDS CIRCULATING AROUND THE SFC LOW AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE AREA WATERS...WILL GIVE WAY TO A SYNOPTIC SW-WSW FLOW WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...OCCASIONALLY UP TO 4 FT ESPECIALLY OFF CAPE FEAR AND POSSIBLY CAPE ROMAINE. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL BE 7 TO 8 SECONDS...WITH A SSE PSEUDO GROUND SWELL THE DOMINANT PLAYER. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST AND WINDS AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND DIRECTIONS WILL BE VARIABLE OVER THE PERIOD. SEA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET WITH A FEW 4 FOOTERS AT 20 MILES OF THE COAST MAINLY FROM FRYING PAN SHOALS NORTHWARD. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS WILL CREATE SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT...WHICH WILL BE PERSISTENT WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WAVE AMPLITUDES WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY SWELL OF 5-6 FT ENTERS THE SPECTRUM AND COMBINES WITH THE SW WIND CHOP TO PRODUCE 4-5 FT SEAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AFTER BEING 3-4 FT ON SUNDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE AND FULL MOON WHICH OCCURS TODAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS 1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. HOWEVER...THIS CYCLE...EVEN THE BEACHES HAVE A SMALL RISK. HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS ABOUT 800 PM AT THE BEACHES AND ABOUT 1030 PM IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IF COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RJD/MAC TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD

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