Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 221903 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 303 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm and humid weather will prevail through mid week. An approaching cold front will bring increasing storms over the area late Wednesday into Thursday. Canadian high pressure will bring an early fall feel Friday and into the weekend. Breezy conditions may develop late Sunday into Monday, as a possible tropical low passes offshore and interacts with the Canadian high.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Tuesday...Diurnal cooling will decrease shower and TSTM coverage and intensity over land after 7pm. A few showers may encroach I-95 late tied to a weak upper disturbance from the WSW. Imagery from GOES-16 shows a cold front approaching the Appalachians ahead of an upper trough driving through the upper plains. Our weather will feature a warm air advection pattern through 00z Thursday as the front works through the mountains. A few strong storms are possible late in the day on Wednesday perhaps on the sea breeze, but frontal convergence and wind shear aloft will maximize after this period, late Wednesday night as the cold front nears. Patches of fog are possible late tonight with partial clearing, light wind and high humidity. Hot temperatures on tap in the warm sector Wednesday afternoon with maximums cresting to 90-95 inland, and upper 80s next to the coast. This should set up moderately strong sea breeze convergence later in the day as a focus for storm initiation.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 3 PM Tuesday...Cold front entering western zones in addition to some height falls and weak vorticity centers ahead of the main belt of westerlies buckling into deep troughiness north of New England States. With several factors leading to lift thunderstorms will not exhibit their normal diurnal decrease, or at least display a much lessened one. Wind fields look weak enough to preclude a severe weather threat. Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain pretty high early Thursday night, highest along the coast. Then some dry air pushes in rather strongly from NW to SE during the latter portion of the overnight hours.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Tuesday...The mid level pattern will initially feature a decent trough for late August. The flow will quickly transition to a more zonal configuration by the end of the weekend. At the surface a cold will push into the Bahamas by early Saturday with high pressure building down into the Carolinas. Friday and Saturday should be cooler and mostly dry although the easterly flow may keeps some low clouds and perhaps a light shower or two offshore around. The forecast gets interesting later in the period when the global guidance spins up what could be a tropical system along the residual front and moves it up off the southeast coast. The guidance has been showing this for a few cycles but the disclaimer of its pretty far out in time still holds. I did keep a partly to mostly cloudy forecast intact with some pops increasing especially along the coast. Temperatures will be on the cool side especially for highs more near normal for overnight lows.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 17Z...High moisture content along the coast and stronger heating inland will allow all terminals VCTS through at least 23z. Light winds overnight and partial clearing will aid in patchy 1-2SM BR and BKN003 between 09z-13z. Light winds this TAF cycle generally S-SW 8 kt or less, 5 kt or less inland overnight. VCSH after daybreak Wednesday mainly coastal sites expanding into TSRA around inland terminals KFLO and KLBT aft 15z. Low level wind shear will be locally strong in and near TSTMS. Extended Outlook...Some storms could be locally strong aft 18Z Wednesday with isolated IFR cond, then MVFR showers and TSTMS Thursday. Most showers and storms will push offshore with a cold front Thursday night into Friday. MVFR clouds however of BKN025 could plague coastal terminals in wake of the front in NE flow of maritime moisture. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Manageable marine conditions to prevail tonight and Wednesday morning, but ahead of a cold front and a good sea breeze Wednesday, we may see a few gusts exceed 20 KT inshore Wednesday afternoon. Seas of 2-3 feet overnight and early Wednesday will grow to 3-4 feet Wednesday afternoon. From here marine conditions worsen as a moderately strong cold front approaches the coast late Wednesday night. TSTMS will increase over the coastal waters after this time period. Seas a mix of SE waves 2 feet every 8-9 seconds, and SW waves 1-2 feet every 4-5 seconds. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Prefrontal flow regime Wednesday night will have a few knots of wind speed knocked off as cold front and its associated pressure trough approaches. The front will move quite slowly and so most of Thursday will feature very gradually veering winds, through FROPA itself will still likely lead to a quicker turn to NE. With the front nearly stalling not far to our south the NE winds will not pick up significantly. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Not the best of weekend`s coming up for the marine community as high pressure will be building down into the area from the north. At the same time a front will become stationary to the south and keep the gradient elevated. For basically the entire period expect northeast winds of 15-20 knots. Seas will be elevated as well with values from 3-6 feet.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MJC

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