Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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846 FXUS62 KILM 280939 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 539 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure will pass across the area today and tonight, migrating offshore Thursday and Friday. A summertime feel will return late week and through the weekend and into next week, as warmth and humidity move into the Carolinas, along a with a few thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...Unseasonably cool and dry high pressure will build in from the northwest this morning. The high passes north of the area this afternoon then moves off the NC/VA coast tonight. There will be an abundance of dry air in the region today with precipitable water values under an inch this afternoon and even lower overnight. Along with the dry air there will be an increase in mid level subsidence. The exit of the 5h trough in conjunction with gradual development of weak 5h ridge results in a strong capping inversion around 11k ft. The dry air and the inversion will prevent any precip and is likely to keep cloud cover to a minimum. Temperatures will run below normal with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...The chief feature of note this period is increasing moisture and warmth, and the feel of humidity, as return flow becomes more established. Weak surface convergence may spawn a few coastal showers Thursday night, but moisture will deepen more significantly Friday. A weak cool pool aloft in the flow will sharpen lapse rates over the area Friday. The pool will carry a vorticity feature providing a bit of upper support on Friday. The track of this feature appears to favor convection over NE SC Friday. Low level winds remain weak but a few TSTMS can be expected Friday. Despite a warming trend, both days may end up similar in maximum temperatures, since more clouds and rain are anticipated Friday compared to Thursday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure will be well established with the trough of low pressure inland. Temperatures will be gradually warming and the moisture will be increasing with dew points in the 70s returning. Precipitable waters over the weekend increase to 2 inches and this will bring the best coverage for diurnal thunderstorms with slightly less coverage early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 10Z...Full VFR expected this TAF cycle. Reinforced high pressure will bring NE winds this morning, veering to E during this afternoon, then light and variable overnight as pressure fields become flat/weak. Isolated light mist possible near the coastal interior into daybreak but not widespread nor dense. Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions possible in thunderstorms over NE SC Friday, and area-wide Saturday afternoon.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...Northerly flow this morning should peak shortly after daybreak with speeds rising to 10 to 15 kt as surge of cooler and drier air works its way down the coast. Winds drop back closer to 10 kt by midday with direction slowly veering from northeast to east by late afternoon and evening. Onshore flow overnight will likely dip below 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft are expected. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...Broad high pressure offshore whose axis will remain mostly north of the region will prompt an E-SE flow of 12 KT or less much of this period. A few showers and TSTMS will be possible late Thursday night through Friday. Sea heights 2 feet Thursday and 2-3 feet Friday mainly from the SE every 6-8 seconds can be expected. No caution headlines or advisories. A weak pressure pattern Friday night as the high retreats farther offshore will result in S winds 10 KT or less. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure will be established over the waters with winds shift from the south at 10 knots and shifting to the southwest at 10 to 15 knots. Seas will range between 2 to 3 feet Saturday and 3 to 4 feet on Sunday, && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...8 NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...DRH AVIATION...8

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