Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 251633 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1233 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build over the area through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the area Thursday night into early Friday morning. Above normal temperatures are expected into next weekend before a second cold front moves across the area on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 12 PM Tuesday...Northerly winds will continue to bring cool and dry air into the area as canadian high pressure builds south through this afternoon. Temps will remain below 70 most places under bright October sunshine. Dewpoint temps will continue to fall down through the 40s and just below across some spots inland. High pressure will settle down over the Carolinas. This will allow winds to steadily diminish through this evening and become near calm heading into the overnight hours. The calm winds in combination with very dry air mass with clear skies will lead to cool overnight temps. Temps will drop off rapidly after sunset as atmosphere decouples reaching down below 50 most places shortly after midnight and getting down below 45 many places inland.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...The southern extension of a Canadian high pressure system will slowly transit across the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday, with consequent dry weather and below-normal temperatures continuing through at least Wednesday afternoon. For Wednesday night temperatures will raise back near normal as low-level flow becomes easterly with the ridge axis passing offshore. A weak low pressure system will move NE into New England on Thursday, dragging a cold front across the area on Thursday night. Unlike earlier fronts, this one will have a modest amount of moisture accompanying it, so increased cloud cover is likely along with isolated to widely scattered showers. As moisture is shallow and best upper support will be passing well to the north do not expect this to be much of a rain-maker, with only minimal QPF. CAA following FROPA will also be minimal, so do not expect any further cool-down with this system. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Tuesday... Cold front comes through dry around the start of the period. This boundary will really only represent a wind shift locally as there is no appreciable cold advection in its wake. In fact the weekend will show a warming trend each day as zonal mid level flow and weak surface return flow persist. The latter will be weak so there will be little to no moistening of the boundary layer. That said the next back door cold front on Monday will be hard pressed to bring anything other than a wind shift. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 12Z...VFR this TAF cycle with mainly cirrus late. NNE winds 8-13 knots this morning will diminish to 5-8 knots by 20Z, then light and variable AFT 00Z. Clear skies and calm wind overnight may result in patchy shallow ground fog. The isolated and thin coverage should not pose any significant VSBY constraints over local runways. Extended Outlook...VFR. Isolated showers between Thursday 18z and Friday 04z. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /through tonight/... As of 12 PM Tuesday...Cool and dry Canadian high pressure will build over the waters through today. Gusty northerly winds up 15 to 20 kts have been diminishing and expect winds across most waters to be down to 10 to 15 kts this afternoon with some gusts up near 20 kts and seas subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Therefore the Exercise Caution headline was allowed to expire. Conditions will continue to improve through this evening as high pressure settles over the waters, but the cool air flowing over the warmer waters will keep a well mixed marine layer and some higher gusts overnight. SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Thursday night/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...Benign conditions will continue across the waters through the period with winds in the 10 to 15 kt range and seas of around 2 to 3 ft. High pressure will move across the waters on Wednesday, with a weak cold front moving offshore on Thursday night. Showers may accompany frontal passage, especially Thursday afternoon and evening, but conditions are expected to remain well below advisory criteria. LONG TERM/FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...Northwesterly post cold frontal winds on Friday but the absence of any strong high building in will preclude any increase in wind speed. In fact winds will likely weaken as the day wears on. As such seas will remain very manageable for most mariners, generally capped at 2 to 3 ft. Wind then turns to west or southwest as a broad and very weak ridge axis sets up along the Gulf Coast. This could increase wind speeds by just a few knots.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MJC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.