Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281940 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 340 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BUILDS WEST AND BRINGS A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE EAST COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...DOWNSLOPE WIND-FLOW IS WIDESPREAD AND SOMEWHAT STRONG ACROSS THE AREA EVIDENCED BY ORIENTATION OF CLOUDS STREETS IN VISIBLE ANIMATIONS AND THE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ALEE OF THE MTNS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT RUNS NEARLY TO THE SURFACE WITH A SW-WSW COMPONENT REPORTED AT GROUND STATIONS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN LOW SURFACE CONVERGENCE SO FAR IN THIS SLIGHT RISK REGIME. A ZONE OF BURGEONING CUMULUS EXTENDED ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO CHARLESTON SC...CURLING NE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH DISCREET CELLS POPPING UP OVER THE SE NC AN NE SC INTERIOR. STORM MOTION GENERALLY WEST TO EAST AT 25-30 MPH WILL SET UP A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTM WINDS IF DEEP CONVECTION CAN MATERIALIZE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE POP FORECASTS...REMAINING IN THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED CATEGORY. A SVR TSTM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY... WHILE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE BEACHES. FLO COULD APPROACH A DAILY RECORD LOW ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FOR REFERENCE...HERE ARE THE DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR ILM AND FLO DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD: WILMINGTON NC RECORD LOWS...DATING BACK TO 1874 JULY 30: 61F (1914) JULY 31: 60F (1914) FLORENCE SC RECORD LOWS...DATING BACK TO 1948 JULY 30: 63F (1997) JULY 31: 62F (1997) PWATS WILL FALL TO 1.0-1.2 INCHES BY MID WEEK...SO POPS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. GIVEN THAT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF OUR OCEAN TEMPS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP EITHER DAY...WHICH FURTHER LIMITS ANY PCPN CHANCES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...A DEEP 500MB TROUGH WILL PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...RETROGRADING ONLY SLIGHTLY NEXT WKND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WARMING TO NEAR-SEASONABLE LEVELS SUN/MON. AT THE SAME TIME...WHILE THU/FRI WILL LIKELY BE DRY THANKS TO W/SW MID-LEVEL FLOW AND PWATS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE BETTER RAIN CHANCES. THE STALLED BOUNDARY WELL OFFSHORE WILL PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE COAST AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. AS THIS OCCURS...MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING SURFACE MOIST ADVECTION AS THE FRONT/TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE WILL CREATE MUCH HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES SAT/SUN/MON. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON THE TAIL END OF THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVE IT TOWARDS THE COAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK...IT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...SHORT-LIVED MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED STRONG STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WILL CHANCES FOR FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WITH THE CONVECTION AS STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF AND SKIES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY TO VFR WITH VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR DUE TO MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING FOR 15-20 KT SW WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS. AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE COAST...THE WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERALL BUT THE TSTM THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO GET A FIX ON RADAR EVEN IF HEADING OUT ON THE ICW. SEAS A MIX OF S WAVES 3-4 FT AT 5-6 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-2 FT AT 8-9 SECONDS. SEAS WILL LESSEN TO 2-4 FT AND A WINDSHIFT TO THE NW AT 15 KT LOOKS TO OCCUR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK OVER THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...NORTH WINDS 10-15 KT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL RELAX AND BECOME NORTHEAST AOB 10 KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 3 FT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE POST-FRONTAL GRADIENT WEAKENS. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...WHEN WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY BUT REMAIN AOB 10 KT. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 FT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL WAVER JUST EAST OF THE WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK...BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING BACK TOWARDS THE COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST THU/FRI...E/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BE THE RULE BOTH DAYS OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...BEFORE VEERING TO THE SE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS ON SATURDAY THANKS TO THE WESTWARD ADVANCE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH. SEAS WILL BE SIMILARLY UNIFORM...2-3 FT THU/FRI WITH A NE WIND WAVE DOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM...AND REMAINING 2-3 FT SATURDAY BUT WITH AN INCREASING SE WIND WAVE AND GROUND SWELL. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039- 053>056. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJR NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...BJR LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...SGL MARINE...MJC/JDW/BJR

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