Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KILM 270031
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
831 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017
Above normal temperatures will prevail much of the upcoming
week as high pressure offshore brings southerly winds. A series
of low pressure systems will bring a chance of rain Monday into
Tuesday, and again late next week. A cooling trend is expected
into next weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...Once again, a warm southerly flow has allowed
temperatures to rise in the mid and even upper 70s most places with
60s at the beaches. A diurnal cu field has formed, not as extensive
as yesterday, as ample low level moisture advection continues off of
the ocean. A few very light returns have appeared on radar but no
ground truth of any precip actually touching the ground yet.
Considering the very dry air aloft and lack of triggers, will be
keeping pops today below mentionable levels.
For tonight a light southerly flow will continue with high pressure
dominating the western Atlantic. Lows will be in the mid 50s for
Model soundings suggest another partly cloudy yet dry day as the
moist southerly low level flow continues around the western Atlantic
ridge. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the mid
to upper 70s most places. A few places will hit 80.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...Another in a series of dampening shortwaves
will move across the Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic region
through the period with a a cold front trailing at the surface.
We continue to advertise low chance pops for the daytime hours
Tuesday with slight chance either side of this to address any
timing issues. The front will cross the area in the early
morning hours of Wednesday. Thermal profiles look slightly
warmer than recent days with the southwest flow ahead of the
system. Depending on the amount of sunshine Tuesday, there could
be widespread 80s. Overnight lows remain entrenched in the 50s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 00Z...VFR conditions will dominate this period, with the
exception for the pre-dawn Mon hrs thru 13Z Mon when MVFR
conditions possible due to BR. Have included a VCNTY SHRA for
the inland terminals to account for the drying out of the band
of pcpn as it tracks across the inland terminals this evening.
Did not include pcpn for the coastal terminals. Have included BR
for all terminals but kept it at MVFR thresholds during the
09-13Z Mon time frame. Sfc high centered offshore from the
Carolinas, will ridge back to the wsw across Cape Fear to CAE
line tonight. This ridge axis will drop southward during Mon to
a position from the high`s center off NC Coast to Jacksonville
Fl. Winds as a result of the sfc pressure pattern change will
start out from the SE-S tonight and veer to the S-SW during Mon.
The sfc pg will remain somewhat loose resulting in wind speeds
dropping back to 0 to 4 kt this evening and overnight and 5 to
10 kt by late Mon morning thru the aftn with coastal terminals
seeing gusts aoa 15 kt due to an active resultant wind bndry,
aka sea breeze.
Extended outlook...MVFR and IFR conditions possible in a few
bouts of showers and thunderstorms late Mon night through Tue
and again Thurs night. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions.
-- End Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...A light south to south-easterly flow of
around 10 kts will continue through the near term as high
pressure continues its hold over the western Atlantic. Winds
near shore this afternoon and Monday afternoon will be a little
bit higher, in the 10 to 15 kt range, and gustier as the
afternoon sea-breeze circulation sets up. Seas will remain right
around the 3 ft range through the period.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...Very light winds from the south, southeast
initially will become better defined through the day Tuesday as a
cold front approaches from the west. Not the most overpowering flow
however as speeds increase to 15-20 knots briefly before backing off
Tuesday evening as the front loses some of its identity. Significant
seas will increase from initial 2-4 foot values to 3-5 feet Tuesday
afternoon and evening with the increase in winds.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
as of 4 AM Sunday...Light winds Wednesday in wake of a cold
front can be expected, followed by a wind-shift to the N_NE
Wednesday night as a back door cold front pushes across the 0-20
NM waters. Briefly this intrusion will transition to light wind
as the high moves overhead Thursday afternoon. A strong and
progressive southern system will bring increasing SE-S winds
late Thursday and an Advisory may very well be needed for 25 KT
gusts late Thursday night ahead of its cold front. Strong storms
and numerous showers appear likely on the water Friday.