Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 030820 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 320 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE BROUGHT BY A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE DRAMATICALLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL START OFF MILD BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND FALLING TEMPERATURE BY AFTERNOON. VERY CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE SLATED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A VERY INTERESTING AND DYNAMIC WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS STALLING JUST SOUTH OF SAVANNAH AS HIGH PRESSURE ZIPS EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. COOL NORTHEAST WINDS ARE WEDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS SOUTH OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. ABOVE THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO VEER RESULTING IN THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGHOUT THE 295K-300K LAYER...APPROXIMATELY 5000-8500 FEET ALOFT...WILL SPREAD PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WHILE I FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT MOST PLACES WILL SEE SOME RAIN...THE CHALLENGE MAY BE GETTING .01" TO MEASURE IN RAIN GAUGES GIVEN VERY DRY AIR PUNCHING IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE NORTHEAST. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND EXTREME EASTERN NC...AND STREAMLINES SUGGEST THIS WILL FEED SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA. (FLORENCE AND MYRTLE BEACH MAY BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ESCAPE THIS DRY PUNCH.) RAIN EVAPORATING INTO THIS DRY AIR WILL HELP ENHANCE THE COOL WEDGE...AND MAY PREVENT THE FRONT TO JUMPING BACK TO THE NORTH QUITE AS QUICKLY AS THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST. WHILE I HAVE WARMED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...I AM STILL WELL BELOW THE GFS/ECMWF AND VERY CLOSE TO A 00Z NAM/SREF CONSENSUS FOR TODAY. TONIGHT STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD OVERWHELM THE WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING EVEN INLAND BY MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE SET EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 60 EAST OF I-95 BY LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE LESS PREVALENT TONIGHT OWNING TO DRIER MID-LEVELS AND LESS ISENTROPIC LIFT. A GROWING CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXCEED WATER TEMPS BY 10 DEGREES. ON SOUTH WINDS THIS FOG SHOULD SPREAD ONTO THE COAST WITH LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE FOR THE BEACH COMMUNITIES. TYPICALLY IN THESE SITUATIONS FOG LIFTS INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT 1-2 MILES BEYOND THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WINTER TAKES A BIT OF A BREAK FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE FOUND OFF THE WEST COAST IN A SETUP MORE TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY SOARING WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM MAY BE ALONG CAPE FEAR REGION WHERE SEA FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE LURKING DUE TO THE HIGH DEWPOINTS. THE MODERATELY STRONG SSWRLY FLOW MAY TRY TO ADVECT SOME OF THIS MUCH A LITTLE BIT INLAND CAPPING THE WARMTH BY BRINGING IN A BROKEN STRATUS DECK ACCORDING TO WRF FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GFS SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL THOUGH NOT AS SEVERE. IT MAY BE TIME TO TRIM FORECAST HIGHS JUST A BIT IN SOME OF THESE LOCALES. CLOUDS OR NOT THIS AIRMASS WILL BE VERY NOTICEABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN MOST AREAS SEE LOW TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN SEEN IN A VERY LONG TIME BUT ALSO NUMBERS CLOSER TO NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR! STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED FOR THURSDAY NOW LOOKS A BIT SLOWER ESP ON THE WRF. GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE ALOFT THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT PRIOR TO ITS PASSAGE IT SEEMS THAT THE BEST BET FOR RAINFALL WILL BE DURING THE TIME OF OR A FEW HOURS AFTER FROPA. A LITTLE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AND ISO THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WE WILL EKE OUT ONE LAST DAY WITH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO ALTHOUGH WITH FROPA THEY WILL BE DROPPING PRECIPITOUSLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LACKLUSTER MAINLY BECAUSE THE FRONT ARRIVES SO MUCH AHEAD OF ANY DECENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING. WINTER ROARS BACK THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S...SOME 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BUT A BRISKLY CHILLY AFTERNOON STILL EXPECTED. NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S NOWHERE TO BE FOUND AS MOST PLACES REMAIN CAPPED IN THE MID 40S AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WEDGE WILL BE WEAKENING ON SATURDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH AND WARM FRONT STRENGTHEN. WHAT LITTLE WARM ADVECTION OCCURS MAY BE OFFSET BY INCREASED CLOUDINESS. IN FACT GFS MOS NOW CAPPING HIGHS IN THE 40S AGAIN. MOST OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD GET PUSHED OUT TO SEA BY SUNDAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH FALLS APART AND MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL. AS THIS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WE MAY RETURN TO CLIMO TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL RIDE UP AND OVER A COLD FRONT NOW STALLING DOWN ACROSS GEORGIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING FIRST ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA AFTER DAYBREAK. NE-E WINDS AT THE SURFACE MAY GUST TO 15-18 KNOTS BEFORE DAYBREAK ALONG THE COAST...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING SMALL AREAS OF LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE LBT/FLO AIRPORTS BEFORE 08Z. THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY SHOULD SEE PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN WITH INTERMITTENT VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN BR. STRATUS SHOULD LOWER BELOW 1000 FEET TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS LATE WED. RAIN/IFR THUR. VFR DEVELOPING FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MARYLAND HAS PUSHED A COLD FRONT SOUTH JUST BEYOND SAVANNAH. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL THIS MORNING...THEN WILL RETURN NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS QUICKLY OFFSHORE. FAIRLY STRONG NE WINDS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL AIR SURGE SOUTH OF THE HIGH SHOULD ABATE AROUND DAYBREAK. LIGHTER NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE SHIFT TO SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND SUNSET. A MUCH MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES RUNNING VERY COLD AFTER THE BRUTAL FEBRUARY WE HAD...LOOK FOR AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG TO DEVELOP AS DEWPOINTS EXCEED THE WATER TEMPERATURES BY 10 DEGREES. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 3-5 FEET WITH SOME 6-FOOTERS LIKELY OCCURRING OUT NEAR 20 MILES FROM SHORE. AS WINDS ABATE THE SEAS SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FEET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS WE WILL REMAIN 5 FEET OR LESS TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT. SOME LATE DAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS MAY MATERIALIZE. ALSO THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND PROBABLY NIGHT AS WELL THERE WILL BE AREAS OF SEA FOG AS THE DEWPOINTS FLOWING OVER THE WATER WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE ACTUAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH ON THURSDAY LEADING TO A SHARP VEER AND LIKELY A CONTINUATION OF ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...THE LONG TERM WILL PROBABLY INITIALIZE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS FLYING IN A MODERATELY STRONG N TO NE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS FLOW WILL WEAKEN AS THE DAY WEARS ON IN A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT REGIME AND ALL HEADLINES LIKELY DROP BY EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IF NOT WASH OUT ENTIRELY. THE NNE FLOW WILL REMAIN HOWEVER, MAINTAINED BY SURFACE TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE AREA. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250- 252-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...TRA

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